Next year's team is still TBD (duh), but I think it will make the tourney and maybe win a game. We aren't going to be awful and win something like 12-15 games. I doubt we have a roster with limited guards and shooting again.
It's hard for IU not to be decent. We have whatever it is: $6M+ NIL, which is top 5-10, probably closer to #5 now. We have a one of the bigger athletic department budgets for basketball (top-10 -- depends on the accounting), so IUBB can have all the staff, recruiting trips, and program luxuries money can buy. And we also pay Woody $4-4.2M, which is about #10 in the country.
IU puts a lot of resources into basketball, we won't be terrible. Our donors literally just bought Bryson Tucker for Woody. There are a lot of good players in the portal.
However, the issue is the results don't match the resources invested. It doesn't matter what Woody is doing vs. Archie or whatever underperformer we had in the past. Woody has top-10 resources and he's being paid like a top coach, so he should be delivering something around top-10/20 results.
College is different from the NBA, and I doubt Woody can learn it fast enough. Last season, year three, was the culmination of what Woody has been building, and it was worse than most people realize. Missed the tourney by a mile, the 27(!) point season ending loss to Nebraska throws into question the improvement we might have seen late in the season, and we whiffed on our three biggest recruiting targets.
I think we know Woody by now. He'll take a ton of resources and underachieve. We have too much $ at IU not to finish in the top half of the B1G and inch into the tournament and maybe win a game at most. The question will be if that works for the decision making group that is some combination of Dolson, Pam, Quinn, and our big donors. Outside of Scott, I don't see them expecting much. If he makes the tourney he is probably safe for another year.
It's too bad. With the right coach and our resources IU could be competing for B1G titles and tourney runs, which would be amazing for our players, students, school, and fans. But we don't push for that at IU. PU has been doing it for a decade with 1/2 to 2/3 the resources of IU, and they're almost certainly in the title game Monday with a 50/50 shot to get a banner in Mackey.