More winning
- Thread starter twenty02
- Start date
No the dollar is generationally weak. It only appears strong in contrast to other's printing. This is why the gold to treasury ratio has completely broken down and you have worthless electronic bits valued at trillions of dollars.
Have you ever been to a country with hyperinflation? I have and it's not pretty. When Trump advocates for a weaker dollar on top of our deficit that's precisely how you end up in that situation. Hyperinflation must be avoided under any circumstance.
Terms of the renegotiation can’t be more favorable to the US than current conditions? Also, you may have missed the first two questions, I’m interested in what the specific fallout will be relative to options & issues…
Why do you think I sound like a broken record about getting our budget situation under control? That's the underlying problem.
Excessive government spending has pretty much always been the catalyst for high rates of inflation -- whether they technically qualify for the label "hyperinflation" or not. Historically, the benchmark for that is a monthly (not annual) rate of 50% or higher.
Our government costs more than our economy can afford to support. We've known this was coming for decades. It's not a surprise. It's the reason Clinton said to "Save Social Security first." It's the reason Bush tried and failed to do so. It's the reason Obama formed the Bowles-Simpson Commission. It's also the reason Obama tried to slow the growth of healthcare costs.
This used to be out in the future. But it no longer is.
When you force anyone into a undesireable position, they tend to chip away at you and refuse/reluctant to cooperate on projects
Well, we already know that isn't true. There are 7 Republican co-sponsors of the Grassley-Cantwell bill.
- Collins
- Grassley
- McConnell
- Moran
- Murkowski
- Tillis
- Young
Would be a good signaling bill... House obviously never going to bring it to the floor. Speaker Johnson has enough mess on his hands right now with the budget reconciliation bill.
I appreciate your responses, but it appears you can only speak in generalities & don’t have any specifics. Carry on with the “Trump bad” narrative that only considers the positions into that have potentially negative outcomes but refuses to acknowledge any potential net positives…
Ahh, ok. I didn't recognize your false pretense and end goal here. Dumb on me.
Bottom line is that all we have outside of the current numbers is general expectations guided by our education and life experiences.
Carry on!
Let's just see how this plays out.
Mainstream media doesn't cover it much, but need a period of lower rates to refi out of the 2020-2022 CRE floaters...
Mainstream media doesn't cover it much, but need a period of lower rates to refi out of the 2020-2022 CRE floaters...
I agree. But it's not accurate to say there won't be any Republican support to rein in TPA. There already is -- and it seems safe to guess there will be more the longer this drags on.
I don't think it's totally inconceivable that it could rise to the level where a veto-proof majority forms. In fact, if I'm a foreign leader right now, that's what I'm watching.
No false pretense, I sought to understand but it became clear your takes on the impacts are mostly unsubstantiated& driven by emotion, not data or facts. This is the case for most. I’m not contending that the Trump Administration plans are all going to work, but don’t see many willing to consider or engage in discussion on any positives…
Oh I concur there. But explosive spending of the type Trump yearns for with a weaker currency is when all hell breaks looks.
I'd argue the ability to afford safe, reliable housing, whether rental or own, is more important to most than the DJII.
I'd argue the ability to finance a safe, reliable car, is more important to most than the DJII.
Keep in mind this is not only a moving target, it’s a fast moving target.
Right now, the only tangible impact has been the stock market cratering. That’s not nothing. But it’s not the kind of thing that is going to get the pitchforks out. For most people, it’s academic. And for 40% of people, it’s a total non-issue.
When these start digging into people’s weekly budgets, many of which are already stretched thin, I think you’ll see the backlash grow into something that growing numbers of members of Congress won’t be able to just ignore.
I
I can assure you I have a pretty good grasp. But if you have an issue with something I have written, do share. I am always willing to listen.
I can assure you I have a pretty good grasp. But if you have an issue with something I have written, do share. I am always willing to listen.
CRE is housing in your eyes? Have never heard it confused as such. Certainly, not "affordable" housing.
In hindsight the Powell should have kept rates at 0 and let inflation continue to run hot in 22. It would have sucked for several years, but they would have probably gotten debt to GDP back below 80% or lower. They also had the crisis of Covid to blame it on.
Multi-family is residential.
Commercial real estate encompasses properties used for business activities, such as office buildings, retail spaces, warehouses, and hotels, designed to generate income through leasing or renting to businesses.
Here's a more detailed explanation:
- Definition:
Commercial real estate, also known as commercial property, refers to real estate used for business purposes, distinct from residential properties intended for living
Boy was I agreeing with you when you mentioned CRE and you were referring to Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae, a family of bacteria that are resistant to a class of antibiotics.
Gotta add some fun into this finance porn you guys are discussing
Yeah, I had to Google it, too, and gave up when that popped up.Boy was I agreeing with you when you mentioned CRE and you were referring to Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae, a family of bacteria that are resistant to a class of antibiotics.
Gotta add some fun into this finance porn you guys are discussing
Take it to the multidrug resistance subforum, to add to the discussions on MRSA & VRE.
Kinda...but not really. It's often referred to as "Resi" inside the Commercial RE community. You're confusing the definitions.
Multifamily/Resi Commercial, per the above, is used for "business activities", and its value is derived from "business income".
Wherever you got that definition from should have clarified that "Residential properties that you own, and live in, are usually not commercial/income producing properties (unless you live in an owner-occupied building that you also lease out, like 'The Ropers or Mr Firley'. Residential properties that you rent, are considered commercial properties".
I mean...
Seriously? Your attempted weak ass argument for crashing the market is you need something cheaper than a 4% 10 year to bail out over-leveraged CRE operators?
If they need Covid era rates just to keep afloat they've done some pretty terrible DD and deserved to be flushed out. Let them get foreclosed and let a properly capitalized operator take the property over.
You can't be fkn serious with this shit.
Kinda...but not really. It's often referred to as "Resi" inside the Commercial RE community. You're confusing the definitions.
Multifamily/Resi Commercial, per the above, is used for "business activities", and its value is derived from "business income".
Wherever you got that definition from should have clarified that "Residential properties that you own, and live in, are usually not commercial/income producing properties (unless you live in an owner-occupied building that you also lease out, like 'The Ropers or Mr Firley'. Residential properties that you rent, are considered commercial properties".
I mean...
Where are the trailer parks?
Boy was I agreeing with you when you mentioned CRE and you were referring to Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae, a family of bacteria that are resistant to a class of antibiotics.
Gotta add some fun into this finance porn you guys are discussing
Kinda...but not really. It's often referred to as "Resi" inside the Commercial RE community. You're confusing the definitions.
Multifamily/Resi Commercial, per the above, is used for "business activities", and its value is derived from "business income".
Wherever you got that definition from should have clarified that "Residential properties that you own, and live in, are usually not commercial/income producing properties (unless you live in an owner-occupied building that you also lease out, like 'The Ropers or Mr Firley'. Residential properties that you rent, are considered commercial properties".
I mean...
Got it from Google.
But, I digress and will acknowledge being wrong as Grok agrees with you. I've often thought commercial is commercial and resi is resi, with various subcategories in each.
Why do you want to bail out CRE investors (housing-related or otherwise)?
I saw that and cannot recall the last time he was right on anything. I think he got alot of liberals excited that a big crash was coming and it turned out to be a big nothing burger. Heck I even had one stock up 9% today!
Hold on - you just quoted something using Jim fvcking Cramer? People create anti-Jim indices and ETFs b/c he is so bad.
Lot of commercial rates are variable based off the SOFR. So guess he's arguing he wants the Fed Funds rate cut.
But this is based upon a warped idea that we're in a high rate environment. We're not. I mean maybe we could drop 50 basis points. But we're not going to a 2% FFR again unless the economy just completely dead ends. Then CRE will have a lot bigger issues.
