Mike Greenburg was complaining about IU being ranked ahead of Alabama

[Grateful Redbeard]

I dunno man...

Oregon wins out.
Us, OSU, and PSU go 11-1, with OSU beating both of us...

Does our loss @ OSU weigh more than PSU's loss to OSU in Happy Valley?

That might be our situation...do 11-1 B10 teams have more "stick" than 10-2 SEC teams. 😬

Yes, but other things would need to play out in addition to that. TN and Bama would both need to win out, and then either TX A&M or LSU win the SEC championship game. BYU would need to both stay undefeated AND lose to an undefeated Iowa St in the Big 12 championship. Miami would need to stay undefeated and lose to Clemson or ND in the ACC championship. If ALL of those things play out then IU would likely not make it at 11-1. Even if the 1 loss was in OT @ O$U.

BYU 12-1
Iowa ST (Big 12 champ)
Miami 12-1
Clemson or ND (ACC champ)
Clemson or ND 11-1
TX A&M or LSU (SEC champ)
Georgia 11-2
Texas 11-1
Oregon 12-1
O$U (BT champ)
Penn St 11-1
Boise St (at large)

If the season ends like what I posted above then IU could miss at 11-1. If even 1 of those things don't play out then IU makes it at 11-1.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/s...e-football-allstate-playoff-bracket-predictor

You can run all the teams through that predictor and see the most likely CFP field there. It's pretty cool.

 

[Pazhoosier85]

ND should be out of playoff contention. They lost at home to a middle of the road MAC team. I hope Army or Navy beats them to knock them completely out because they are only in these conversations because of their name.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

Here's what the ESPN predicter says if IU goes 11-1 and doesn't make the BT championship game:

 

[OpenWheels]

I don't have any doubt we're in at 11-1. Not worried about that scenario. If the committee has to take 4 big teams, and three are 11-1 they will do it.
The scenario mentioned that is worrying is 2 losses even with the second one in the B1G title game.

Oh well, I think I could suffer a Gator Bowl or whichever the best non-playoff bowls we would be eligible for.

Just win the next game!
,

 

[twenty02]

Whatever your opinion may be on his take, he does indirectly amplify what could be the REAL issue/risk here...

We go 11-1, lose by (let's say...10) at OSU, and get left out of the B10 Championship...

Tennessee, LSU/A&M, or Bama with two losses likely gets in the Playoff over us because of:

1) Brand Name, and
2) Perceived SOS (was Nebraska ranked over all platforms when we beat them? Our only ranked game would have been a loss)

We mighta picked the wrong year to dump Louisville.

Unless that ESPN predictor tool is garbage.... Your scenario has less than 1% chance of occuring.

 

[td75]

We are 7-0, we are chasing a National Championship!!!

 

[welshman#]

Whatever your opinion may be on his take, he does indirectly amplify what could be the REAL issue/risk here...

We go 11-1, lose by (let's say...10) at OSU, and get left out of the B10 Championship...

Tennessee, LSU/A&M, or Bama with two losses likely gets in the Playoff over us because of:

1) Brand Name, and
2) Perceived SOS (was Nebraska ranked over all platforms when we beat them? Our only ranked game would have been a loss)

We mighta picked the wrong year to dump Louisville.

I’ve reached a similar conclusion via a similar thought experiment: What if tOSU beat IU and PSU, all 3 teams finished 11-1, and then tOSU beat Oregon in the B1G championship game? In that scenario the B1G would have 4 teams with only 1 loss iirc. Do all 4 get into the playoffs?

I’m not sure they do. First, I don’t see 4 B1G teams getting in unless 4 SEC teams do too, regardless of their losses. If Notre Dame gets in, plus a G5 rep like Boise, that would leave only 2 spots for the ACC and Big 12, and they’d be screaming bloody murder (as would a possibly undefeated service academy).

In this scenario I suspect that at least 3 ACC/Big 12 teams get in and IU, as the presumably lowest rated B1G 10 team, might be on the proverbial bubble. Even more so than a “national brand” SEC team with 2 losses, as unfair as that might be.

I know some people will say “no way they would leave IU out” but I’m not sure about that. What if an SEC team with 2 losses is rated higher than IU? What if both Miami and Clemson finish with 1 loss each? What if Iowa State or BYU finishes undefeated and the other finishes with 1 loss?

A lot of folks seemed to think that expanding the playoff to 12 teams would help to avoid situations like the one with an undefeated Florida State, but the cynic in me felt that the opposite would be more likely: instead of one team getting shafted by a 4 team bracket, 2 or even 3 teams could get shafted by a 12 team bracket.

IMO as long as they were going to expand from 4 to 12, they might as well have just expanded all the way to 16 with no 1st round byes. IIRC the FCS playoff includes 24 teams, so logistics aren’t a big issue.

 

[Hoosiers Rising]

I’ve reached a similar conclusion via a similar thought experiment: What if tOSU beat IU and PSU, all 3 teams finished 11-1, and then tOSU beat Oregon in the B1G championship game? In that scenario the B1G would have 4 teams with only 1 loss iirc. Do all 4 get into the playoffs?

I’m not sure they do. First, I don’t see 4 B1G teams getting in unless 4 SEC teams do too, regardless of their losses. If Notre Dame gets in, plus a G5 rep like Boise, that would leave only 2 spots for the ACC and Big 12, and they’d be screaming bloody murder (as would a possibly undefeated service academy).

In this scenario I suspect that at least 3 ACC/Big 12 teams get in and IU, as the presumably lowest rated B1G 10 team, might be on the proverbial bubble. Even more so than a “national brand” SEC team with 2 losses, as unfair as that might be.

I know some people will say “no way they would leave IU out” but I’m not sure about that. What if an SEC team with 2 losses is rated higher than IU? What if both Miami and Clemson finish with 1 loss each? What if Iowa State or BYU finishes undefeated and the other finishes with 1 loss?

A lot of folks seemed to think that expanding the playoff to 12 teams would help to avoid situations like the one with an undefeated Florida State, but the cynic in me felt that the opposite would be more likely: instead of one team getting shafted by a 4 team bracket, 2 or even 3 teams could get shafted by a 12 team bracket.

IMO as long as they were going to expand from 4 to 12, they might as well have just expanded all the way to 16 with no 1st round byes. IIRC the FCS playoff includes 24 teams, so logistics aren’t a big issue.

The number that matters is 7. That’s how many at large bids there are so b10 and sec could both get 4 teams in if the other two don’t have a good case for 2.

 

[mobilehoosier]

The real rankings fraud is Penn St. at #3.

Love to see Cig thrash a T Allen P-state D. It would be like Nebraska. Go Hoosiers!

 

[Tammany Hall]

Love to see Cig thrash a T Allen P-state D. It would be like Nebraska. Go Hoosiers!

We’ll see how it goes next year. We go to PSU.

 

[twenty02]

I’ve reached a similar conclusion via a similar thought experiment: What if tOSU beat IU and PSU, all 3 teams finished 11-1, and then tOSU beat Oregon in the B1G championship game? In that scenario the B1G would have 4 teams with only 1 loss iirc. Do all 4 get into the playoffs?

I’m not sure they do. First, I don’t see 4 B1G teams getting in unless 4 SEC teams do too, regardless of their losses. If Notre Dame gets in, plus a G5 rep like Boise, that would leave only 2 spots for the ACC and Big 12, and they’d be screaming bloody murder (as would a possibly undefeated service academy).

In this scenario I suspect that at least 3 ACC/Big 12 teams get in and IU, as the presumably lowest rated B1G 10 team, might be on the proverbial bubble. Even more so than a “national brand” SEC team with 2 losses, as unfair as that might be.

I know some people will say “no way they would leave IU out” but I’m not sure about that. What if an SEC team with 2 losses is rated higher than IU? What if both Miami and Clemson finish with 1 loss each? What if Iowa State or BYU finishes undefeated and the other finishes with 1 loss?

A lot of folks seemed to think that expanding the playoff to 12 teams would help to avoid situations like the one with an undefeated Florida State, but the cynic in me felt that the opposite would be more likely: instead of one team getting shafted by a 4 team bracket, 2 or even 3 teams could get shafted by a 12 team bracket.

IMO as long as they were going to expand from 4 to 12, they might as well have just expanded all the way to 16 with no 1st round byes. IIRC the FCS playoff includes 24 teams, so logistics aren’t a big issue.

11-1 B1G team is not getting left out of a 12 team playoff. Full stop

 

[welshman#]

11-1 B1G team is not getting left out of a 12 team playoff. Full stop

They shouldn’t be left out, and probably wouldn’t be, but imo for anyone to assume there’s “no way” they could be left out is naive. It reminds me of when people were saying there was “no way” IU could be left out of a New Year’s Day bowl game but they were.

 

[kmathum]

says if the met on a neutral field Bama would be favored by 2 touchdowns, I think that may be a little extreme but would concede Bama would be a prohibitive favorite, following his logic should Las Vegas do the polls instead of the ap and coaches? F the SEC, we beat UCLA on the road by more than LSU did at home

I doubt that he's even seen us play.

 

[kmathum]

Greenburg is an idiot and does not research things, it is no wonder two guys split up on the show.

He was on the Pat McAfee show recently and the screen under him as he spoke read ESPN legend. I got quite a juckle out of that. If he's a legend, legends aren't what they used to be.

 

[kurt cloverdales]

Yep...so?

I think the point is until IU plays a team with top of the B10, or SEC levels of talent, there still has to be some question marks.

I'm pretty confident in Cignetti and the fellas being competitive, against anyone. I think Greenburg is wrong. Sagarin doesn't fully agree with Greenburg, but does still have Bama as the "better" team.

Its not an outlandish take on his part, though.

Why is he singling out IU. I think Bama would be favored against ND,BYU and ISU.

would say he saw IU ranked that high and said what the hell is going on? then went looking for excuses.

 

[Harry Hondo]

says if the met on a neutral field Bama would be favored by 2 touchdowns, I think that may be a little extreme but would concede Bama would be a prohibitive favorite, following his logic should Las Vegas do the polls instead of the ap and coaches? F the SEC, we beat UCLA on the road by more than LSU did at home

The knock on Bama this season is their defense is giving up too much. That's bad news when you're facing an offense like IU's. They have a great QB and will score, but they wouldn't be able keep up with IU unless they can stop us and with two losses it looks like that's suspect. DeBoer is a good coach, but I thought his defense at Washington was the weak link and the reason they couldn't beat Michigan.

 

[Hoosiers Rising]

They shouldn’t be left out, and probably wouldn’t be, but imo for anyone to assume there’s “no way” they could be left out is naive. It reminds me of when people were saying there was “no way” IU could be left out of a New Year’s Day bowl game but they were.