Bloomington’s own Sagarin Ratings - Week 8

[TomEric4756]

Bloomington’s own Sagarin Ratings - Week 8

Minnesota consolidated improvements made @Purdue by holding off ‘Huskers.
Iowa was leapfrogged by Ole Miss, for one.
tOSU increases lead over Oklahoma.

Data and Commentary

College Football 2021 through games of October 23 Saturday - Week 8
RANK | RATING | W L | SCHEDL(RANK)| VS top 10 | VS top 30 | HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.60]
1 Georgia | 96.67 | 7 0 | 72.48( 32) | 0 0 | 3 0 |
2 Alabama | 95.49 | 7 1 | 73.96( 15) | 1 0 | 2 1 |
3 Ohio State | 92.59 | 6 1 | 70.07( 51) | 0 0 | 1 1 |
- The eye test and continued domination of BiG East division will push tOSU ahead of UC in AP & Coaches’ polls in time.
- PSU loss to Illinois will make this harder.
4 Oklahoma | 88.54 | 8 0 | 68.07( 68) | 0 0 | 2 0 |
5 Michigan | 87.53 | 7 0 | 71.07( 42) | 0 0 | 1 0 |
- Improved passing performances suggest undefeated tilt with OSU.
6 Cincinnati | 86.76 | 7 0 | 64.70( 89) | 1 0 | 1 0 |
- Decreasing schedule strength puts downward pressure on ranking
7 Iowa State | 85.99 | 5 2 | 72.75( 29) | 1 0 | 2 2 |
8 Notre Dame | 85.78 | 6 1 | 75.50( 6) | 0 1 | 1 1 |
10 Mississippi | 84.47 | 6 1 | 72.84( 27) | 0 1 | 1 1 |
- Laid out SEC West rival LSU
11 Iowa | 84.31 | 6 1 | 72.78( 28) | 1 0 | 2 0 |
12 Penn State | 84.04 | 5 2 | 72.37( 35) | 0 0 | 2 1 |
- PSU Seemed uninspired v. Illinois; were inspired v. Hoosiers
13 Pittsburgh | 83.81 | 6 1 | 68.21( 66) | 0 0 | 1 0 |
18 Wake Forest | 82.67 | 7 0 | 67.16( 79) | 0 0 | 0 0 |
- Panthers and Deacons now favored for ACC Championship
19 Clemson | 82.22 | 4 3 | 74.62( 12) | 0 1 | 0 3 |
- Will Clemson even make a Jan. 1 bowl? … over ACC runner-up.
20 Wisconsin | 82.13 | 4 3 | 75.73( 5) | 0 2 | 0 3 |
- Does Badger D really make Wisconsin this much better than Sparty? Must be the 5th hardest schedule.
27 Michigan State | 79.41 | 7 0 | 69.60( 56) | 0 0 | 0 0 |
- “Little Brother” matchup with Michigan will separate them as contender and pretender.
29 Minnesota | 78.10 | 5 2 | 69.53( 58) | 0 1 | 0 1 |
- PJ deserves credit for adapting to Ibrahim’s loss
30 Kansas State | 77.54 | 4 3 | 77.06( 2) | 0 3 | 0 3 |
- Still surviving with 2nd hardest schedule.
38 Nebraska | 76.16 | 3 5 | 73.82( 16) | 0 2 | 0 4 |
44 Purdue | 75.27 | 4 3 | 74.92( 9) | 0 1 | 1 3 |
- IU also played 3 QBs, out of necessity. Boiler gimmick fell flat v. Badgers
66 Indiana | 71.47 | 2 5 | 79.34( 1) | 0 2 | 0 5 |
- IU Only dropped two points and 13 spots. Blowouts get discounted.
71 Maryland | 70.29 | 4 3 | 72.98( 24) | 0 1 | 0 3 |
- Home field and recent IU performance put Terps as home faves.
75 Northwestern | 69.42 | 3 4 | 68.28( 64) | 0 1 | 0 2 |
76 Rutgers | 69.06 | 3 4 | 72.46( 33) | 0 2 | 0 3 |
77 Army West Point | 68.90 | 4 3 | 67.68( 73) | 0 0 | 0 2 |
- Black Knights pushed Badgers in Camp Randle, then triple option couldn’t keep up with Wake
85 Illinois | 67.30 | 3 5 | 74.48( 13) | 0 0 | 1 1 |
- Pushed PSU front 7 for over 300 yds. rushing — survived multiple OT attempts from 2 yds.
88 Western Kentucky | 66.83 | 3 4 | 64.23( 94) | 0 0 | 0 1 |
- Some here bemoaned WKU loss to UTSA Jackrabbits, who are now 7-0.
183 Idaho | 43.88 | 2 5 | 64.11( 97) | 0 0 | 0 0

https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/college-football-team-ratings-2021/
——-

Week 8 Mockup

Rank	Opponent	Opp. Index	Ind. Index	Margin
11	@Iowa	85.41 + 2.60	71.47	16.54
183	Idaho	45.28	71.47 + 2.60	-28.79
6	Cincinnati	88.06	71.47 + 2.60	13.99
88	@Western Kentucky	66.65 + 2.60	71.47	-2.22
12	@Penn State	87.89 + 2.60	71.47	19.02
27	Michigan State	79.86	71.47 + 2.60	5.07
3	Ohio State	90.94	71.47 + 2.60	16.78
71	@Maryland	70.73 + 2.60	71.47	1.86
5	@Michigan	87.89 + 2.60	71.47	19.02
76	Rutgers	69.05	71.47 + 2.60	-5.02
29	Minnesota	77.68	71.47 + 2.60	3.61
44	@Purdue	78.02 + 2.60	71.47	9.15
66	Indiana		71.47

 

[hoosierfan13]

Good post. We are 2-0 as favorites, 0-5 as underdogs. I'm worried about our offense being able to beat Big Ten teams. Defense held MSU to 13 points and we couldn't win.

Michigan-MSU will be very interesting. I got a text from a friend who told me tickets are going for $500+ for the game this year. Insane considering a year ago when both programs looked awful. This is the first time since 1964 that it's been a battle of top 10 undefeated teams. The best team MSU has played is #38 Nebraska, who had them beat in East Lansing before giving up a punt return TD with 3:47 left, then throwing an INT their first possession in OT. Road team has won 5 of 6, MSU has not beat Michigan in East Lansing since Harbaugh was hired. Michigan's win at #20 Wisconsin looks better as the season progresses.

Wisconsin controls their own destiny in the Big Ten West, and has Iowa at home this week. Wisconsin has looked like the old Wisconsin lately - out-gaining Illinois 491-93, calling 51 rushing plays vs 8 passing plays against Purdue.

FYI - Sagarin's predictor is the most accurate of his rankings. TeamRankings is a cool website as well. We have roughly a 5% chance to make a bowl game.