You get four out of five counties red in that part of the country you’re going to get a couple dbm’s Danc’s joe, etc and jury nullification. Trump is already a convicted felon and half the country doesn’t care. Yeah we believe what the evidence shows but we think he’s picked on here and the prosecution is unjust. Bam. THE FORT HAS SPOKEN
Meanwhile in the MAL documents case...
- Thread starter cosmickid
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#DreamTeamJustice
Very possible. Although in the documents case, it’s going to be tough.
Trump really lucked out getting fort Pierce which pulls from red north counties. Mar a lago is super close to the wpb division. That division only pulls from pbc. purple but a bit more Dem. Transients. People from all over. All types etc. Fort Lauderdale only broward. Miami only Dade. Both heavy blue
He's definitely unique. And polarizing, although there are tens of millions who fall somewhere between the extremes you've identified.
He clearly stresses the criminal justice system. Some of that, of course, is his own doing, with harsh and sometimes vitriolic criticism of the prosecutors, judges, judges' family members and witnesses in his cases. I'm recalling, for example, his social media post depicting a baseball bat by Bragg's head. There's an intimidation factor. There have been death threats. Jurors' anonymity is critically important for their safety and well-being. In some respects, his prosecutions resemble those of a mob boss.
So yeah, he's unique. But the criminal justice system can't be remade for unique defendants. They're subject to the same rules as everyone else. And he's not necessarily shit out of luck following his guilty verdict(s). If there's a colorable claim that, for example, he couldn't receive a fair trial in Manhattan, that will be addressed on appeal. If he and/or his defense team honestly believe he can't get a fair trial in most of the country, he may want to reconsider his citizenship and/or limit his future criminal activities to venues that are particularly friendly.
On the contrary, I would say that in virtually ALL of the country it is impossible for him to get an unfair criminal trial, a conviction that requires a unanimous verdict of 12 citizens. Even in isolated areas like Manhattan that break 80-20 against him at the polls, there would be only a 7% chance that none of the 12 would be a Trump supporter. In places that are still so-called solid blue areas and going 60-40 against him, there would be only a 0.2% chance that none of the 12 would be a Trump supporter.
Oj is a good analogy re the jury. You can get a pbc jury that looks like manhattan’s. One division north and it’s a different ballgame.
So that is 1 cherrypicked case out of how many?
The odds of an unfair verdict is extremely low as he explained.
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You have a lot of trial experience Grover? Pickin juries? VD? Venue changes. This another area of your expertise?
Not only is oj not a one off. Studies and research have been done re the importance of jury diversity for equity in verdicts. In Florida a 10 year study of felony trials was used for data
Bowl and brad are right most jurors are fair. The vast majority. But not all come with a clean state and the makeup of the co dictates same and you can’t weed them all out. There are willdogs out there. His beliefs would impact a trial - supported by data. Racial composition matters. People who believe in lawfare and will engage in nullification. Dbm joe DANC Bailey Cray and on and on right here. They aren’t convicting trump in those five counties. Just my opinion.
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It’s sad that after sitting through a trial which could prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt to fair and objective jurors wouldn’t phase the people you listed. I think you are probably right and it’s really not a good thing.
So in just our little corner of the world we have that many posters. Imagine how many feel that way in the heart of maga country in red Florida
Personally I don’t think you can find 12 jurors in any location in this country that will give Trump a fair unbiased verdict, either way. Sure Trump has hurt himself in many ways but media is a bigger problem.
So what is the answer? If Trump is so reviled that he can't get a fair trial, does he get a free pass?
My guess is that the two verdicts against trump will be the largest in NY for 2023. Of all verdicts. That caroll case. More than birth defects, wrongful death cases, etc. where a case is heard makes a huge difference. Throw in trump and it’s off the charts
How is media a bigger problem? Trump broke the law, Trump threatens and insults judges, courtroom employees, lawyers and anyone not protected by a gag order to attempt to bully them into doing what he wants. Has nothing to do with the media reporting on his vile behavior.
Given that all jurists on a jury have to agree, a decision will almost always require someone vote in opposition to their views on Trump. Even in NY, a jury isn't going to be entirely made of Trump haters.
It would be like if the jury had me and dbm on it. If we both agreed on trump's guilt or innocence then the evidence must have been pretty good even with 2 people with strong opinions on the defendent.
I’m taking the contrary view that Trump will be found guilty in the MAL case, even there in location which has more Trump voters than not. I’ve read the indictment (I recommend everyone here do so, and it’s an easy read) and the case is super strong. Probably about as close to slam dunk as I’ve seen. Put Aloha in there for Trump and Aloha’s going to prison for the rest of his life. Period. So let’s say the trial happens and the jury finds him guilty. What will our hard core MAGA Trumpsters say about it? Will they try to make the unsupportable assertion that the jury was full of Democrats and Nerver-Trumpers (gets my vote) or will they finally admit our former President is a felon (I wouldn’t bet a dollar on this one)?
It’s America. Verdicts he disagrees with he can appeal. If he loses he loses and serves the sentences.
My god you are something else. There are no jurists on a jury. All JURORS do not have to agree.
Your bias is at issue in this entire thread
Isn't that exactly what Trump is doing?
People just want to pretend that Trump is some victim. Will that stop if he loses the appeal or will they keep pretending he is a victim of a biased jury and judges?
In New York he is the victim of a politically motivated prosecution and he is guilty.
In the so dist he sounds guilty but may benefit from the rotational system that kicked the case to fort Pierce. Cannon may be a beneficial draw as well
That’s where we are
Not a chance in hell dbm would ever be convinced of Trump being guilty of anything. He checked out of reality and took up permanent residence in Trump World. Trump could change his name to Dorris and start wearing dresses and dbm would be the biggest supporter of the trans movement the WC has ever seen. He’s that far gone.
And if we believe there’s a cult they sure as shit will show up in that pool
Eh. The right to a speedy trial belongs to the defendant not the prosecution. Who knows what rulings will come. Again the biggest win he got was fort Pierce.
He may be a bad example. Just saying it is highly unlikely for a jury, even in NY, to not have at least 1 pro-trumper with a red hat in their closet.
Or vice versa in a conservative area of the country
Not every Trump voter is in the Trump Cult. You aren’t, but dbm is. My guess is probably 20 to 30 percent of Trump voters qualify for permanent residence in Trump World.
Not trying to pick a fight Aloha but I think you are as hard core against Trump as DBM is for Trump. I don’t think if you were on a jury you would be unbiased in your decision. That’s where we are with Trump.
Would I be unbiased? I don’t know. In the documents case it would be tuff for me knowing Biden and Hillary both walked. I don’t need to hear how much more egregious Trump’s case is. If Trump is guilty, they are both guilty of breaking the law and they walked away free.
So bam there’s jury nullification in words. That’s why I don’t see him getting convicted in those counties
At least one of the NYC jurors said he got his news from Truth Social and/or Fox.
Thanks for the measured response.
So if Trump loses his appeal(s), you're good with that? Or is that just another example of the "system" being corrupt and rigged?
Not everyone's bias will go the same way in a jury though. The chances of everyone being pro Trump or anti Trump is incredibly slim.
If an entire jury agrees on a verdict (which they have to) then wouldn’t you say the evidence must have been strong enough to overcome that bias?
Someone or multiple someones would have to vote opposite of their bias.
Why do you keep writing that they have to agree? And do you understand jurists and jurors are different?
I’m 100 percent confident I could be an objective juror and find him not guilty if that was warranted. There isn’t a doubt in my mind.
Once again, Trump’s case is magnitudes worse. This isn’t my opinion, it’s a fact. Many more documents, highest levels of classification, failing to properly protect them, refusal to return, lying that he had returned when he hadn’t, and actively obstructing their return. It’s not close. The only charge they could have against Biden is mishandling. None of the rest. Please read the indictment. Compare it to the Hur Report. That they’re not close to the same, again, is a fact, not an opinion.
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I would like to think I’d convict him but I’d certainly consider nullification. I don’t know how I’d feel about effectively disenfranchising half the country of their vote. The Republican nomination. That MIGHT feel bigger to me than his charges. I don’t know.
After the election I’d convict him without a thought. I don’t care about him
McMurtry has been trying too explain that they don’t all have to agree. They can all agree guilty or not guilty or they could have a hung jury because they don’t all agree on either.
