Agree with your post, until that last line. If there were plenty of coaches every year who could turn our program around, we'd have hit on one at some point over the last 20+ years. The # of guys who can step up and manage the demands of the recruiting game, and running a P5 program with expectations, I believe, is pretty small.
I think you're a slave of your expectations. "Good", can produce great results, right now, at IU, in my opinion. We don't have to get "lucky" and land great. It would be awesome if we do...I'm sure there are a handful of those guys out there. But there are a slew of "good" guys that will elevate IU, and start building momentum.
In order to understand my perspective...I'll say this...I think even Archie would be more successful than Woodson has been, this time around. When Archie came around, we were operating under IU's Bill of Rights philosophies. I think the portal and NIL, probably would have suited him more. Getting guys in short order, that fit him...rather than trying to fit with IU and the players he inherited.
So...if you don't agree with THAT...then the rest of this won't make any sense to you. And you obviously could be right, and me wrong. Just a hunch.
I don't think we need a "perfect fit" this next time around. I do think personality will be important, but in reference above, I think the portal and NIL helps with that, and widens the scope on the types of guys that could succeed at IU. In the end, I think all we need is a good college basketball coach. The IU machine will naturally elevate them.
Another example of how I'm thinking about this...a little more granular... If Woodson himself, had woken up yesterday with the Epiphone that he needed to quickly teach his players how to guard dangerous shooters on their hips, and ride and bump them off screens and through movement...and worked on that in the hotel conference room for an hour or so, and reminded them during the game about it, especially after Berry hit his first couple 3s...we would have won last night by double digits.
I remember learning about guarding shooters hips all the way back to middle school. And every single coach I had since middle school, taught that...even though all of them also had wall/nail/help side/drop and below/all switching, etc... basic philosophies. I believe, with all my heart, that Woodson never noticed or even thought about it last night. That's about as glaring an example of why I think he's so unfit for college coaching as anyone we've ever had.
So...how good would we feel if we had a marginally better coach than Woody, that had marginally better results, that had teams that play solid overall basketball?
First year, solid NCAA at large instead of play in. Maybe still first round loss.
Second year, a few more regular season wins, maybe a 3 seed, sweet 16 appearance.
Third year, back up a little bit, but still make the NCAAs, maybe win a game in tournament.
This year...no blowout losses, maybe 15-5, only 3 conference losses instead of 4, NET in the 20s/30s instead of where we're at.
That would be the single best 4 year consecutive run of any we've had since RMK...I believe. And it would only take someone that's marginally better than Woodson.