This is in the spirit of largely ignoring the rumor mill and just seeing the landscape and listening to FG's comments.
There are a bunch of guys who would be homerun hires for IU that I think are unlikely. You never know, but I think, in the end, for a number of reasons, just really unlikely. Brad Stevens. Tom Izzo. Mark Few. John Beilein. I think they'd all be great fits for IU (unlike, say, Pitino, Calipari, Roy, etc.). Other guys might do really well (and keeping ALL names in mind no matter how unrealistic), but are too close to retirement (e.g., Coach K, Larranaga, etc.). Given how few great coaches are out there, it hurts to take names like Few and Stevens off the list. In the normal course of yesteryear, they might be prime candidates.
I'd think IU would naturally prefer somebody who'd established themselves at a high major and done well in a somewhat comparable situation. I only count 2.5 guys in this category: Billy Donovan, Tony Bennett, and Steve Alford. Given his tepid w/l record, Alford's my 'half'. He checks the local box, though, so there's that. I'd still guess Donovan is unlikely: he wanted to be in the NBA for a reason and given his tease with Orlando, I'd say it wasn't JUST Westbrook and Durant. Bennett seems to me like the most likely option there. He's got some midwestern ties, he's got a distinctive approach, and he's done some amazing things in a RELATIVELY comparable situation. TB seems like the surest thing to me.
The next tier to me is something like the up and coming or doing it in a non-comparable situation: Gregg Marshall, Chris Collins, Archie Miller, and Bryce Drew. I've always really like Marshall and because he's so distinctive I'd love him at IU. But I doubt this is going to happen. His rough side plus, as silly as it sounds, yesterday's events just seem at odds with what IU wants to be about. Collins has midwestern ties, has achieved something at NW literally never done before, and has a pedigree that makes him more appealing. Drew has actual state of Indiana ties. Miller is professionally midwestern. None of them are risk-free and, to me, Archie may be the best but has the least distinctive 'something' that would be compelling for IU.
The next tier for me is probably just Frank Martin and Steve Prohm. They seem to be doing good things, are guys to watch, but don't have a huge track record and nothing IU related.
So, knowing absolutely nothing, and not hiding my biases, my break down is:
Tier 1: Tony Bennett
Tier 2: (probably in order of my preference) Chris Collins, Bryce Drew, Archie Miller
Tier 3: Frank Martin, Steve Prohm (there are probably other guys that might fit here, but it probably doesn't matter).
Wildcards: Billy Donovan and Steve Alford.
I think Donovan really does deserve to be #1 on the list. I don't think Alford is. If Donovan doesn't come, Alford is above Tier 3 (meaning the tier 3 guys probably have no shot; we'll never get to them), but arguably below Tier 1. The question is how Alford's record and ties match up with the draw of guys like Collins, Drew and Miller. That's mostly a question of how resistant to Alford that Glass is. My personal bias/guess says resistant, but not overwhelmingly so. I just don't know how difficult it would be for him to pull the trigger in favor of, say, Bryce Drew over Alford. Regardless, I think that's probably a PR nightmare for Glass. Maybe less so for Archie (to the extent he's got more public favor than the other two), but I think he'd be highly motivated to avoid having that conundrum.
Even shorter, my ignorant prediction/breakdown for FG's list, in order, is: Donovan, Bennett, Alford, Archie, Bryce/Collins.
There are a bunch of guys who would be homerun hires for IU that I think are unlikely. You never know, but I think, in the end, for a number of reasons, just really unlikely. Brad Stevens. Tom Izzo. Mark Few. John Beilein. I think they'd all be great fits for IU (unlike, say, Pitino, Calipari, Roy, etc.). Other guys might do really well (and keeping ALL names in mind no matter how unrealistic), but are too close to retirement (e.g., Coach K, Larranaga, etc.). Given how few great coaches are out there, it hurts to take names like Few and Stevens off the list. In the normal course of yesteryear, they might be prime candidates.
I'd think IU would naturally prefer somebody who'd established themselves at a high major and done well in a somewhat comparable situation. I only count 2.5 guys in this category: Billy Donovan, Tony Bennett, and Steve Alford. Given his tepid w/l record, Alford's my 'half'. He checks the local box, though, so there's that. I'd still guess Donovan is unlikely: he wanted to be in the NBA for a reason and given his tease with Orlando, I'd say it wasn't JUST Westbrook and Durant. Bennett seems to me like the most likely option there. He's got some midwestern ties, he's got a distinctive approach, and he's done some amazing things in a RELATIVELY comparable situation. TB seems like the surest thing to me.
The next tier to me is something like the up and coming or doing it in a non-comparable situation: Gregg Marshall, Chris Collins, Archie Miller, and Bryce Drew. I've always really like Marshall and because he's so distinctive I'd love him at IU. But I doubt this is going to happen. His rough side plus, as silly as it sounds, yesterday's events just seem at odds with what IU wants to be about. Collins has midwestern ties, has achieved something at NW literally never done before, and has a pedigree that makes him more appealing. Drew has actual state of Indiana ties. Miller is professionally midwestern. None of them are risk-free and, to me, Archie may be the best but has the least distinctive 'something' that would be compelling for IU.
The next tier for me is probably just Frank Martin and Steve Prohm. They seem to be doing good things, are guys to watch, but don't have a huge track record and nothing IU related.
So, knowing absolutely nothing, and not hiding my biases, my break down is:
Tier 1: Tony Bennett
Tier 2: (probably in order of my preference) Chris Collins, Bryce Drew, Archie Miller
Tier 3: Frank Martin, Steve Prohm (there are probably other guys that might fit here, but it probably doesn't matter).
Wildcards: Billy Donovan and Steve Alford.
I think Donovan really does deserve to be #1 on the list. I don't think Alford is. If Donovan doesn't come, Alford is above Tier 3 (meaning the tier 3 guys probably have no shot; we'll never get to them), but arguably below Tier 1. The question is how Alford's record and ties match up with the draw of guys like Collins, Drew and Miller. That's mostly a question of how resistant to Alford that Glass is. My personal bias/guess says resistant, but not overwhelmingly so. I just don't know how difficult it would be for him to pull the trigger in favor of, say, Bryce Drew over Alford. Regardless, I think that's probably a PR nightmare for Glass. Maybe less so for Archie (to the extent he's got more public favor than the other two), but I think he'd be highly motivated to avoid having that conundrum.
Even shorter, my ignorant prediction/breakdown for FG's list, in order, is: Donovan, Bennett, Alford, Archie, Bryce/Collins.
