KenPom vs. Final Four

[IUNorth]

1. For the last 10 Final Fours, there have been exactly ZERO teams that have made the Final Four that weren't top 20 in either the Offensive or Defensive Efficiency ratings.
2. The averages for all 40 teams are as follows... Off Eff 17.8; Def Eff 16.7
3. The averages for all 10 Natty winners are as follows... Off Eff 7.4; Def Eff 10
4. The teams that had outlier/high ratings on either side, nearly always countered that with elite top 10 level play on the other side. Loyola-Chicago is the only one that didn't have a dominant side of the ball. They were 63rd offense, 17th defense.

It'll be interesting to see where we end up before the tournament starts. But as of now, neither one of our rankings are top 20. We're close on offense (21), not on defense (40). If history repeats itself, a Final Four with this group is incredibly unlikely. If we get an effective Xavier back though, that could change things. And of course, all trends like this are made to be broken.

 

[Coach Geez]

1. For the last 10 Final Fours, there have been exactly ZERO teams that have made the Final Four that weren't top 20 in either the Offensive or Defensive Efficiency ratings.
2. The averages for all 40 teams are as follows... Off Eff 17.8; Def Eff 16.7
3. The averages for all 10 Natty winners are as follows... Off Eff 7.4; Def Eff 10
4. The teams that had outlier/high ratings on either side, nearly always countered that with elite top 10 level play on the other side. Loyola-Chicago is the only one that didn't have a dominant side of the ball. They were 63rd offense, 17th defense.

It'll be interesting to see where we end up before the tournament starts. But as of now, neither one of our rankings are top 20. We're close on offense (21), not on defense (40). If history repeats itself, a Final Four with this group is incredibly unlikely. If we get an effective Xavier back though, that could change things. And of course, all trends like this are made to be broken.

Was Loyola 17th DEff prior to the tournament or their final ranking after F4 weekend?

 

[IUNorth]

Was Loyola 17th DEff prior to the tournament or their final ranking after F4 weekend?

Appears final ranking. Good catch. I had always though KenPom stopped doing the rankings at end of regular season. But they're listed 32-6. So he must factor in tournaments as well.

The tournament success would obviously skew these numbers a little. I'm not versed enough on KenPom's formulas to know how much though.

Was mainly just an attempt to point out that we're close to being a team that could predictably push for a Final Four, but it would likely take an "X-infusion" to make it happen.

 

[Harry Hondo]

Appears final ranking. Good catch. I had always though KenPom stopped doing the rankings at end of regular season. But they're listed 32-6. So he must factor in tournaments as well.

The tournament success would obviously skew these numbers a little. I'm not versed enough on KenPom's formulas to know how much though.

Was mainly just an attempt to point out that we're close to being a team that could predictably push for a Final Four, but it would likely take an "X-infusion" to make it happen.

I somewhat disagree. I think this team is pretty complete if we can continue to get scoring from Galloway and Kopp. The defense is very good, even when the bench players are in, and we have 2 of the most dynamic players in the country. X isn’t likely going to be 100% and besides even if he was I’d rather have JHS as our starting PG. His game and ability are exactly what’s needed for a Final Four team.

 

[Victorbmyboy]

1. For the last 10 Final Fours, there have been exactly ZERO teams that have made the Final Four that weren't top 20 in either the Offensive or Defensive Efficiency ratings.
2. The averages for all 40 teams are as follows... Off Eff 17.8; Def Eff 16.7
3. The averages for all 10 Natty winners are as follows... Off Eff 7.4; Def Eff 10
4. The teams that had outlier/high ratings on either side, nearly always countered that with elite top 10 level play on the other side. Loyola-Chicago is the only one that didn't have a dominant side of the ball. They were 63rd offense, 17th defense.

It'll be interesting to see where we end up before the tournament starts. But as of now, neither one of our rankings are top 20. We're close on offense (21), not on defense (40). If history repeats itself, a Final Four with this group is incredibly unlikely. If we get an effective Xavier back though, that could change things. And of course, all trends like this are made to be broken.

I wonder if you take out the 4 game stretch of injuries what those numbers look like. I’m betting this team might be a little better.

 

[aajohn2000]

I somewhat disagree. I think this team is pretty complete if we can continue to get scoring from Galloway and Kopp. The defense is very good, even when the bench players are in, and we have 2 of the most dynamic players in the country. X isn’t likely going to be 100% and besides even if he was I’d rather have JHS as our starting PG. His game and ability are exactly what’s needed for a Final Four team.

I am not sure that X is ever seeing the floor again this season.

 

[Hatchets7times]

I am not sure that X is ever seeing the floor again this season.

If he'd been playing the last two weeks or so.. I'd be all for it..
Just to throw him in at the BTT..
Can't see any positives there..

 

[Coach Geez]

If he'd been playing the last two weeks or so.. I'd be all for it..
Just to throw him in at the BTT..
Can't see any positives there..

Really? Not sure we're going to survive the next few weeks with JHS and Galloway playing 40 and 38 mpg respectively. I hate that it's gotten to this point, but Bates is almost unplayable right now outside of emergency minutes. The Michigan State game last week where JHS went out with two fouls in a close game that completely ballooned in his absence is exactly why Xavier could be a key cog to a deep tournament run. Would never advocate for him returning completely to his old role on a whim this late in the season, but 10-15 minutes off the bench is exactly what this team needs.

 

[aajohn2000]

If he'd been playing the last two weeks or so.. I'd be all for it..
Just to throw him in at the BTT..
Can't see any positives there..

I would see it as a positive if he was a positive contributor and helped us reach the final. If that were to happen and we won the final, then i'd say it was good. The reason I say this is it would mean he played and contributed in three games prior to the dance. If he were to come back and we only play one or two games with at least one loss, I see no value. An argument could be made it was negative value. Should he come back and we play in and win all three games, then he gets the meaningful minutes and it would also theoretically mean that his contributions were meaningful and additive.

 

[aajohn2000]

Really? Not sure we're going to survive the next few weeks with JHS and Galloway playing 40 and 38 mpg respectively. I hate that it's gotten to this point, but Bates is almost unplayable right now outside of emergency minutes. The Michigan State game last week where JHS went out with two fouls in a close game that completely ballooned in his absence is exactly why Xavier could be a key cog to a deep tournament run. Would never advocate for him returning completely to his old role on a whim this late in the season, but 10-15 minutes off the bench is exactly what this team needs.

I think that it depends on the matchup and MSU is one where it was very evident we needed X. Stating my thoughts and what I feel is shared with most, if he does come back, the concern I have is the team chemistry. Tradeoff between production potential and chemistry.

 

[The one and only ACE]

If he'd been playing the last two weeks or so.. I'd be all for it..
Just to throw him in at the BTT..
Can't see any positives there..

I can. Someone that can give the guards a rest without hurting us