That's a big part of the current calculation. I suspect that we'll see it fade and can adjust mitigation measures accordingly as those numbers fade.
It's time to live with Covid. No more shutdowns, no more school closings. Welcoming business. Putting in plainclothes cops
- Thread starter mcmurtry66
- Start date
From yale:
As data about Delta accumulates, scientists are working hard to learn as much as possible as quickly as they can. One important question is whether the Delta strain will make you sicker than the original virus. Early information about the severity of Delta included studies from Scotland and Canada, both cited by the CDC, that suggested the Delta variant may be more likely to result in hospitalization in the unvaccinated. A report this summer, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, found that people in England with Delta had double the hospitalization risk of those with Alpha, which was previously the dominant mutation in that country.
5 Things To Know About the Delta Variant
Delta was a highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 virus strain that was first identified in India, and also circulated in the United States and other countries. The vaccines have proven to be highly effective against Delta, but anyone who is unvaccinated is at risk for infection by the variant.
www.yalemedicine.org
That's a fascinating bit of information, Marv. Thanks for linking that. I guess it shows that we've made a lot of progress since February 2020. And that there is still probably a TON to learn about this virus and its associated variants.
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No. You should exercise your freedom and do what you feel like you need to do to keep your sanity.
But, healthy, low risk children shouldn't have to pause their lives.
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I think the first human virus ever identified was Yellow Fever and it was proven to exist in 1900. Viruses have been on earth for a very long time, we have studied them for a very short time. I fear what we don't know about viruses far exceeds what we do know. So we are stuck making educated guesses that people in the future will laugh about.
Healthy low risk children can still vaccinate and wear their mask. If they can't, then they are the ones that can stay home.
Called protecting others.
They're doing that, bud.
We are talking about not going back to school. There's no reason they shouldn't be in school.
It's been worth every penny the last two years.
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
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This is why my wife won’t let me do it. I’d love to get out to the middle of nowhere but she’s vetoed it for that reason.
LOL stay in the basement with you all day long. You want to impose you will on others and I am guessing you have no kids.
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I bet. My sister and brother in law are private high school teachers and coaches and they'd echo that. And from what they tell me most of their parents and co-workers would agree wholeheartedly.
It sure beats being at the will of a union who decides when and if you child will be in school. And in a year that same union will scream and yell about how they need more money because the kids have fallen so far behind. Not to mention how many parents had to take today off work because the union threw another tantrum?
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anon_6hv78pr714xta
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I always wonder about that while driving for any distance on interstate highways, looking at the houses or farms along the way.
I think a big part of this is the disruption to schedule and routine and normalcy for kids. They need that along with structure. Eating disorders are shooting through the roof during Covid, and those are at root, caused by a desire for control. I don't think that's coincidence.
Also, remember, every time school is shut down due to this virus, every time they go to school with masks, they are being reminded, even if indirectly, that they are in danger of contracting this invisible disease that dominates the news and most people's thoughts and discussions. It has to be scary for them all.
It's not the same, but Imagine if we had to do nuclear bomb drills every single day as children? Took a week off of school every now and then to practice preparing our home bomb shelters, etc?
You can’t just tell them that, Marvin. They are a union. They have a contract. And they will fight.For me, I would base it all on hospital availability. Once ICU's are 80% full you start asking people to restrict their movements voluntarily. Please don't go to crowded bars for a few days sort of statements. At 90% I'd start making some more mandatory changes (bars and restaurants observe capacity limits). At 100% we would get more draconinan.
Chicago proper is Region 11 below, they are around 89% CPU usage. Region 10 are the western burbs and are over 90%. Region 7, just south of Chicago, is at 98%. That is perilously close to a major problem for the people that live in that region. Once 100% is exceeded, every car accident, every survivable heart attack or stroke becomes much more dangerous. Frankly people should be more careful at that point not only hanging around large crowds but in driving, or running across busy streets, or whatever else we do that we take for granted excellent emergency care.
In theory, school shouldn't be a big problem. Teachers should be vaccinated (but if anyone required them to be the same people demanding school every day would be angry we made them be vaccinated). Kids are less likely to be hospitalized. But in a region like 7 with only 3 ICU beds available, one more becomes a bigger deal than normal.
But I don't think I would go virtual. I would tell teachers they will teach the 180 days in person (assuming that is Illinois' number), if that means they are teaching come July 20, they are teaching come July 20. I was skeptical remote learning was as bad as it turned out to be, but the numbers seem obvious, it didn't work. If teachers feel it is too dangerous to be in classroom today, fine. But they will be back in the classroom for the full number of days. So they will have to account for that in deciding when it is safe to return.
Hospitalization Utilization
The data reported are based on daily counts that hospitals report to IDPH through EMResource. They should be considered provisional and may be subject to change as a result of IDPH’s continuous data validation and hospital follow-up efforts. These numbers are reported by Illinois acute care...dph.illinois.gov
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
Delta was more severe than alpha per the Brits.
Omicron, Delta, Alpha, and More: What To Know About the Coronavirus Variants
New variants are an expected part of the evolution of viruses, and that includes SARS CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Yale Medicine provides some background on key variants that have surfaced during the course of the pandemic.
www.yalemedicine.org
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
Classic lawyer stuff. Sees PCP and goes All in.
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anon_6hv78pr714xta
Guest
Who did “sign up” for this? My wife is a nurse on an orthopedic floor at a major downtown hospital in Chicago. How did she “sign up” to be exposed like this in a pandemic? And unlike teachers, healthcare workers are at a significantly higher risk of contracting Covid.
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Seriously dude, you gotta relax.
See...this board is totally overrun by Dunning-Kruger. I thought mcm sees "PCP" and thinks "Here's a topic I can speak on with some expertise." 🤣
I've lived in the sticks with my family for years. Our neighbors are my in laws a couple 100 yards one way and our former bus driver a couple 100 yards away the other way. Across the street is a couple in the 70s. The next house isn't for another another couple miles in either direction.
We've lived here going on 10 years now, when my oldest was just going into middle school and my middle child was five. Since then, we've now got a eight year old and the five year old is obviously 15. The kids love it out here. They get to run and play outside wherever they want and climb on whatever they want. They basically have the run of whatever they want to do outside.
As far as how often they see their friends, we try and get a play date once every couple weeks. Truth be told, they really don't complain about it. They are home bodies, but it asked, they will go to other homes.
I truly never want to live in a city again.
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
I thought mcm was an amalgamation of the M from MDMA, the C from PCP, and the M from “thank your sir May I have another”
My SIL grew up in public schools and had her kids in public school in VA. In summer of 2020, the district decided to maintain distance learning for the rest of the year, and perhaps beyond. So she pulled her kids and enrolled in a private school. Said it was the best decision she ever made then, and there is virtually zero chance her hysterical district doesn't follow CTU's lead and go back to virtual for an extended period.
Kudos to you and your family for living in a way that works for you. It sounds like a fantastic, aspirational lifestyle for some people.
But does this undercut the idea that kids need to/must have daily in-person learning for socialization and that any breaks damage them? As with most things, I suspect that it's a lot more complicated than that.
Agree 100%, & you very aptly sum up why many are reluctant to be vaccinated. How can anyone claim the certainty & safety of a solution to a problem they may not understand?
Um. Two other people sent you the same study. So you've now received the study debunking your claim three times from three separate posters.
Keep going dude, you‘re about to break the record for number of times wrong in a single thread…
I'd say nurses came a hell of a lot closer to signing up for pandemics than teachers did.
Then again, part of the reality of being a teacher means active shooter drills.
What you posted showed no signs of severity of a single case, just more severe illness as a result of it being more contagious.
I think socialization is naturally important, but the more lasting damage wasn't socialization but rather that their learning was retarded - by as much as a year
I don't know what you wrote means.
I know what below means:
Severity: Delta may cause more severe disease than other variants in people who aren’t vaccinated. Early studies from Scotland and Canada, both cited by the CDC, suggested Delta may be more likely to result in hospitalization in the unvaccinated. A report in the Lancet this past summer found that people in England had double the hospitalization risk with Delta than they did with Alpha, the previously dominant variant in that country.
Omicron, Delta, Alpha, and More: What To Know About the Coronavirus Variants
New variants are an expected part of the evolution of viruses, and that includes SARS CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Yale Medicine provides some background on key variants that have surfaced during the course of the pandemic.
www.yalemedicine.org
What McMurtry posted didn't reveal anything of the sorts. In fact, it was explicit it wasn't sure it led to more severe instances, just a larger number of severe cases. So I asked if he was sure he read what he posted.
That was copied verbatim from what you linked. If you don't know what it means, then it means you didn't know what you actually posted.
Hence my point, are you sure you read what you posted?
It's not my fault what you posted presented contradictory information to your own point.
Okay help me then.
You do not believe that Delta was more severe than Alpha? Correct? How do you reconcile that with below? If you have double the hospitalization risk I construe that to be a more severe variant. You don't?
Severity: Delta may cause more severe disease than other variants in people who aren’t vaccinated. Early studies from Scotland and Canada, both cited by the CDC, suggested Delta may be more likely to result in hospitalization in the unvaccinated. A report in the Lancet this past summer found that people in England had double the hospitalization risk with Delta than they did with Alpha, the previously dominant variant in that country.
