Win Probabities Increase Overall for the Hoosiers
I documented Indiana’s win probabilities at the beginning of the season according to ESPN Analytics.
Now, after the first quarter of the 2023 season (three games in), I re-checked the remaining games to see if the Hoosiers managed to make the computers in Connecticut beep a little bit. What do the numbers say?
Overall the answer is a solid yes, the mathematical models like Indiana more than they did at the start of the year.
Observations
Indiana is only favored in the Akron game BUT the Hoosiers are only a heavy underdog in two contests. Michigan State, Rutgers and Purdue are true toss-up games while the models give IU a puncher's chance against Wisconsin and Maryland. The needle moved in Indiana’s favor in 7 of the 9 games. Indiana was previously favored against Rutgers but now the computers favor Rutgers slightly. Things also swung a bit towards Penn State.
Overall the average change was +7.4 percent per game in IU’s favor. Indiana's projected win total for the final 9 games moved from 2.82 to 3.49. Thus the current projected win total is 4.49 (3.49 plus 1 current win).
(Sorted by change)
The needle moved an impressive double-digits in four games. Indiana’s chances jumped over 20 percent against Michigan State and over 15 percent against Purdue.
The season is still young so Indiana has a chance to keep moving that needle in the right direction. LEO.
(Originally published here)
I documented Indiana’s win probabilities at the beginning of the season according to ESPN Analytics.
Now, after the first quarter of the 2023 season (three games in), I re-checked the remaining games to see if the Hoosiers managed to make the computers in Connecticut beep a little bit. What do the numbers say?
Overall the answer is a solid yes, the mathematical models like Indiana more than they did at the start of the year.
Observations
Indiana is only favored in the Akron game BUT the Hoosiers are only a heavy underdog in two contests. Michigan State, Rutgers and Purdue are true toss-up games while the models give IU a puncher's chance against Wisconsin and Maryland. The needle moved in Indiana’s favor in 7 of the 9 games. Indiana was previously favored against Rutgers but now the computers favor Rutgers slightly. Things also swung a bit towards Penn State.
Overall the average change was +7.4 percent per game in IU’s favor. Indiana's projected win total for the final 9 games moved from 2.82 to 3.49. Thus the current projected win total is 4.49 (3.49 plus 1 current win).
(Sorted by change)
The needle moved an impressive double-digits in four games. Indiana’s chances jumped over 20 percent against Michigan State and over 15 percent against Purdue.
The season is still young so Indiana has a chance to keep moving that needle in the right direction. LEO.
(Originally published here)