Indiana Moves the Needle in ESPN Analytics

[daddyhoosier]

Win Probabities Increase Overall for the Hoosiers

I documented Indiana’s win probabilities at the beginning of the season according to ESPN Analytics.



Now, after the first quarter of the 2023 season (three games in), I re-checked the remaining games to see if the Hoosiers managed to make the computers in Connecticut beep a little bit. What do the numbers say?

Overall the answer is a solid yes, the mathematical models like Indiana more than they did at the start of the year.

Observations

Indiana is only favored in the Akron game BUT the Hoosiers are only a heavy underdog in two contests. Michigan State, Rutgers and Purdue are true toss-up games while the models give IU a puncher's chance against Wisconsin and Maryland. The needle moved in Indiana’s favor in 7 of the 9 games. Indiana was previously favored against Rutgers but now the computers favor Rutgers slightly. Things also swung a bit towards Penn State.
Overall the average change was +7.4 percent per game in IU’s favor. Indiana's projected win total for the final 9 games moved from 2.82 to 3.49. Thus the current projected win total is 4.49 (3.49 plus 1 current win).

(Sorted by change)


The needle moved an impressive double-digits in four games. Indiana’s chances jumped over 20 percent against Michigan State and over 15 percent against Purdue.
The season is still young so Indiana has a chance to keep moving that needle in the right direction. LEO.

(Originally published here)

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Win Probabities Increase Overall for the Hoosiers

I documented Indiana’s win probabilities at the beginning of the season according to ESPN Analytics.

View embedded media

Now, after the first quarter of the 2023 season (three games in), I re-checked the remaining games to see if the Hoosiers managed to make the computers in Connecticut beep a little bit. What do the numbers say?

Overall the answer is a solid yes, the mathematical models like Indiana more than they did at the start of the year.

Observations

Indiana is only favored in the Akron game BUT the Hoosiers are only a heavy underdog in two contests. Michigan State, Rutgers and Purdue are true toss-up games while the models give IU a puncher's chance against Wisconsin and Maryland. The needle moved in Indiana’s favor in 7 of the 9 games. Indiana was previously favored against Rutgers but now the computers favor Rutgers slightly. Things also swung a bit towards Penn State.
Overall the average change was +7.4 percent per game in IU’s favor. Indiana's projected win total for the final 9 games moved from 2.82 to 3.49. Thus the current projected win total is 4.49 (3.49 plus 1 current win).

(Sorted by change)


The needle moved an impressive double-digits in four games. Indiana’s chances jumped over 20 percent against Michigan State and over 15 percent against Purdue.
The season is still young so Indiana has a chance to keep moving that needle in the right direction. LEO.

(Originally published here)

I feel the newer odds for an IU win are too low for Wisconsin (36%), MSU (48.4), and Illinois (38.4), and too high for Purdue (43.6).

I've seen significant portions of two Wisconsin games this year, and they are horrible this year. No WRs worth a damn, and both lines are very poor by Wisconsin standards. I'd say about 45% there. MSU is obviously a train wreck. I'd go with 60% I'd say 36% on Purdue, 40% on Illinois.

 

[TomEric4756]

I think MSU gets clocked by Md and that game flips.
Illini look beatable based on recent results.
UM will expose RU as a one dimensional fraud (can’t pass).
I don’t think Purdue can play good enough defense to remain favored.

Thus bowl eligibility is still in play.
Wisky and Md look tougher than expected …

 

[Hoosiers47614]

I think MSU gets clocked by Md and that game flips.
Illini look beatable based on recent results.
UM will expose RU as a one dimensional fraud (can’t pass).
I don’t think Purdue can play good enough defense to remain favored.

Thus bowl eligibility is still in play.
Wisky and Md look tougher than expected …

I don't know if you watched the Buffalo or Georgia Southern games, but the scores are deceiving.

Wisconsin's defense, at least to this point, has not been good. And neither, really, has Tanner Mordecai.
Georgia Southern was in control of that game until their QB got a very bad case of INT-itis,
And even with GASO's QB throwing 5 picks, Wisconsin still didn't pull away until late in the 3rd quarter.

 

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

Everything but Michigan and Penn State are possibles.

Our defense is good enough to mess with everybody else, and our total offense is +30 over last year, with OSU in the rear view, and our newbie QB just settling in.

Akron is better than Indiana State, but we can get better and thump them, gain confidence, hone both sides of the ball, and head into full-time league play ready to go.

 

[TomEric4756]

I don't know if you watched the Buffalo or Georgia Southern games, but the scores are deceiving.

Wisconsin's defense, at least to this point, has not been good. And neither, really, has Tanner Mordecai.
Georgia Southern was in control of that game until their QB got a very bad case of INT-itis,
And even with GASO's QB throwing 5 picks, Wisconsin still didn't pull away until late in the 3rd quarter.

Guess some of us will need to watch Wisconsin in Ross Ade and see if Purdue gets steamrolled by Wisconsin RBs. Maybe we’ll decide neither is as good as everyone thinks going in.

 

[TomEric4756]

Guess some of us will need to watch Wisconsin in Ross Ade and see if Purdue gets steamrolled by Wisconsin RBs. Maybe we’ll decide neither is as good as everyone thinks going in.

The box score says Boilers got crushed in the 1st half, and then couldn’t sustain the comeback in the 4th quarter after 2 3Q TDS. Boilers gave up 5 yds/carry in the first half.

Wisky won a game they were supposed to win, and covered -6 handily.

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

The box score says Boilers got crushed in the 1st half, and then couldn’t sustain the comeback in the 4th quarter after 2 3Q TDS. Boilers gave up 5 yds/carry in the first half.

Wisky won a game they were supposed to win, and covered -6 handily.

Mordecai was the better of the two QBs, contrary to. BoilerN’s preseason eval.
Wisconsin absolutely killed themselves with penalties inside the red zone. Game could have easily been 45 -17.
I will give Purdue one kudo: even though they were down 21-3 at half, the nerdfest didn’t leave the stadium. The fat dorks in the hard hats stayed until the end.

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

I feel the newer odds for an IU win are too low for Wisconsin (36%), MSU (48.4), and Illinois (38.4), and too high for Purdue (43.6).

I've seen significant portions of two Wisconsin games this year, and they are horrible this year. No WRs worth a damn, and both lines are very poor by Wisconsin standards. I'd say about 45% there. MSU is obviously a train wreck. I'd go with 60% I'd say 36% on Purdue, 40% on Illinois.

Wisconsin just steamrolled the nerds. If Wisky is as horrible as you describe, Purdue isn’t going to win 8-9 games like our esteemed guests have claimed.

 

[Hoosier Clarion]

Go figure. PUkes are always PUkes.

 

[Vern Pain]

Go figure. PUkes are always PUkes.

Interesting side note, or.maybe not, they managed to incorporate IU Sucks into Sweet Caroline. It really is the most squirrelly fanbase anywhere.

 

[DANC]

Mordecai was the better of the two QBs, contrary to. BoilerN’s preseason eval.
Wisconsin absolutely killed themselves with penalties inside the red zone. Game could have easily been 45 -17.
I will give Purdue one kudo: even though they were down 21-3 at half, the nerdfest didn’t leave the stadium. The fat dorks in the hard hats stayed until the end.

Purdue has some really good individual players - the one RB - Tracey? - was an Iowa transfer who played WR last year and was made a RB this year. Helluva runner. Makes our RBs look slow. He didn't go down easily, either.

Their QB, Card...... meh. He has his moments - and he can run - but he's way off on a lot of his passes.

Purdue Defense definitely susceptible to the QB run - Dexter would have a field day against them, if he's healthy by then.

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

Interesting side note, or.maybe not, they managed to incorporate IU Sucks into Sweet Caroline. It really is the most squirrelly fanbase anywhere.

Bunch of fat dorks in striped overalls and construction hard hats.
I do give them credit for showing up.

The epitome of their student section made his appearance late in the game when the camera zeroed in on some oaf dressed in shoulder pads and a jersey who looked like a 32 year old grad student. He had the usual hard hat but his was a luxury model as it had 2 cup holders on either side complete with drinking tubes flipping off the referee.

 

[Vern Pain]

Bunch of fat dorks in striped overalls and construction hard hats.
I do give them credit for showing up.

The epitome of their student section made his appearance late in the game when the camera zeroed in on some oaf dressed in shoulder pads and a jersey who looked like a 32 year old grad student. He had the usual hard hat but his was a luxury model as it had 2 cup holders on either side complete with drinking tubes flipping off the referee.

Saw him. They zoomed in on him after the strip and lateral play.

 

[Jackskip23]

Purdue has some really good individual players - the one RB - Tracey? - was an Iowa transfer who played WR last year and was made a RB this year. Helluva runner. Makes our RBs look slow. He didn't go down easily, either.

Their QB, Card...... meh. He has his moments - and he can run - but he's way off on a lot of his passes.

Purdue Defense definitely susceptible to the QB run - Dexter would have a field day against them, if he's healthy by then.

They spread Wisconsin out in the second half and actually did some good things offensively but they could never get them stopped on D, which sealed their fate. Card throws a good ball and they have some very good skill, but they couldn’t protect very well. They’ll win some more games but they’ll lose their fair share, too.