In the meantime, I’m still betting on Biden leaving the race.

[crazed_hoosier2]

Interesting. I didn't realize Ohio changed their deadline. I was going off ballotpedia, which is usually accurate.

Yeah, if I were a delegate I'd be pissed the DNC is still pushing this.

I get the delegates' frustration, too.

But to my original point on this, I think there's a good argument to be made for doing it. If it's successfully pulled off (which it may not be), then it brings the discussion about keeping/ditching Biden to an end. And I think that's in the party's best interest.

Of course, there are lots of people who want to get him out. And those people aren't going to like this. But I think they have to consider the possibility of Biden continuing to rebuff them through the convention. If that were to happen, the division just drags on another month.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

I fully mean this - if the Republicans were running a more sensible candidate - I'll just say someone arbitrarily like John Kasich - I might consider voting for someone like that.

That group of Republican pols -- Kasich, Bush, Ryan, Romney, etal etal -- may or may not realize it, but I think you can draw a straight line from their own missteps to the broad acceptance of populism among Republican voters. And as much as I'd like to say that the party will pull back from that once Trump's (mercifully) in the rear view mirror, I'm not very hopeful that will happen.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I get the delegates' frustration, too.

But to my original point on this, I think there's a good argument to be made for doing it. If it's successfully pulled off (which it may not be), then it brings the discussion about keeping/ditching Biden to an end. And I think that's in the party's best interest.

Of course, there are lots of people who want to get him out. And those people aren't going to like this. But I think they have to consider the possibility of Biden continuing to rebuff them through the convention. If that were to happen, the division just drags on another month.

Yes, if Biden is going to stay, I agree there is value to getting it done as quickly as possible.

 

[dbmhoosier]

That group of Republican pols -- Kasich, Bush, Ryan, Romney, etal etal -- may or may not realize it, but I think you can draw a straight line from their own missteps to the broad acceptance of populism among Republican voters. And as much as I'd like to say that the party will pull back from that once Trump's (mercifully) in the rear view mirror, I'm not very hopeful that will happen.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I get the delegates' frustration, too.

But to my original point on this, I think there's a good argument to be made for doing it. If it's successfully pulled off (which it may not be), then it brings the discussion about keeping/ditching Biden to an end. And I think that's in the party's best interest.

Of course, there are lots of people who want to get him out. And those people aren't going to like this. But I think they have to consider the possibility of Biden continuing to rebuff them through the convention. If that were to happen, the division just drags on another month.

We are stuck with the scene from Princess Bride, "Clearly I cannot choose the candidate in front of me. Clearly I cannot choose the candidate in front of you." There are huge red flags for staying with Biden, huge red flags for switching. I just cannot see a scenario where a Democrat wins. The good news, Trump will eventually say something to scare people again. But odds are it won't be nearly enough.

 

[mattndallas]

View embedded media

It's almost like...when you peel back the hyperbole...Trump is simply a re-issue of a Clinton-era Democrat.

Who woulda thunk?

 

[Ohio Guy]

That group of Republican pols -- Kasich, Bush, Ryan, Romney, etal etal -- may or may not realize it, but I think you can draw a straight line from their own missteps to the broad acceptance of populism among Republican voters. And as much as I'd like to say that the party will pull back from that once Trump's (mercifully) in the rear view mirror, I'm not very hopeful that will happen.

I think that’s probably true. In my current job, I work with some people from the aforementioned Ohio governor’s administration and for better or worse if you listened in on some of our conversations about Trump and current GOP politics (“some” being a key word), you would probably wouldn’t guess they served under a Republican governor.

Very Lincoln Party-esque. I think they hope there is some sort of pull back after Trump too. I agree with you that I’m not so sure of it.

For what it’s worth, I think people could do well to have more conversations like that. Those guys all know I didn’t vote for their boss, have a pretty liberal voting record, and we still get along well. It’s been enlightening and while we definitely still don’t see eye to eye on some things (and probably never will), those conversations have informed my view.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

That group of Republican pols -- Kasich, Bush, Ryan, Romney, etal etal -- may or may not realize it, but I think you can draw a straight line from their own missteps to the broad acceptance of populism among Republican voters. And as much as I'd like to say that the party will pull back from that once Trump's (mercifully) in the rear view mirror, I'm not very hopeful that will happen.

I don’t think there is a nickels worth of difference between Trump policies and those whom you mentioned. The difference is almost entirely driven by personality and technique. Trump’s faults came through in his inexcusable 2020 post election behavior. But for that, he would be a run-a-way lock. He was very effective in getting mainstream GOP agenda items in effect.

Trump will be gone a few months or four years. Nobody has his personality. I don’t think there is much to pull back from. Populism exists because of forces having nothing to do with Trump. He is just riding the wave.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

We are stuck with the scene from Princess Bride, "Clearly I cannot choose the candidate in front of me. Clearly I cannot choose the candidate in front of you." There are huge red flags for staying with Biden, huge red flags for switching. I just cannot see a scenario where a Democrat wins. The good news, Trump will eventually say something to scare people again. But odds are it won't be nearly enough.

I know I never said it here, because I wasn't posting here then. But I said it elsewhere (including to the person I know with the most influence within the Democratic party): they needed to be working on a different candidate a year ago.

But I fully understood how difficult that would be. Parties just don't dump incumbents. And primary challenges have come to be seen as taboo. To wit, no Democrats are praising Dean Phillips right now...even if they can all now see that his motivation for running had merit.

It's still possible that somebody else ends up on the ticket. And I think any of those options (including Harris) would be better than Biden....if for no other reason than to help with morale and unity.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I don’t think there is a nickels worth of difference between Trump policies and those whom you mentioned. The difference is almost entirely driven by personality and technique. Trump’s faults came through in his inexcusable 2020 post election behavior. But for that, he would be a run-a-way lock. He was very effective in getting mainstream GOP agenda items in effect.

Trump will be gone a few months or four years. Nobody has his personality. I don’t think there is much to pull back from. Populism exists because of forces having nothing to do with Trump. He is just riding the wave.

Disagree on difference in policies with some notable areas agree re populism and trump riding that wave. He tapped into it

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

I think that’s probably true. In my current job, I work with some people from the aforementioned Ohio governor’s administration and for better or worse if you listened in on some of our conversations about Trump and current GOP politics (“some” being a key word), you would probably wouldn’t guess they served under a Republican governor.

Very Lincoln Party-esque. I think they hope there is some sort of pull back after Trump too. I agree with you that I’m not so sure of it.

For what it’s worth, I think people could do well to have more conversations like that. Those guys all know I didn’t vote for their boss, have a pretty liberal voting record, and we still get along well. It’s been enlightening and while we definitely still don’t see eye to eye on some things (and probably never will), those conversations have informed my view.

But my question is whether they've taken a look inward.

It's certainly not hard to find Lincoln Project types who will throw darts at Trump, Trump's sycophants, GOP pols who coddle up to him, etc. That sort of thing is all over the place and has been since 2016.

What I think is harder to find is introspection: the Kasiches, Ryans, Boehners, Romneys, etc. considering how it is that GOP voters came to divorce them as they did. In other words, rather than simply being critical of Trumpworld, wondering where they themselves went wrong. The conversations I've had along these lines usually involve some form of "What are you talking about?"

If they ever hope to fix things, they need to turn more of their focus on their own missteps. And they should start at the most obvious place: the southern border.

 

[Ohio Guy]

But my question is whether they've taken a look inward.

It's certainly not hard to find Lincoln Project types who will throw darts at Trump, Trump's sycophants, GOP pols who coddle up to him, etc. That sort of thing is all over the place and has been since 2016.

What I think is harder to find is introspection: the Kasiches, Ryans, Boehners, Romneys, etc. considering how it is that GOP voters came to divorce them as they did. In other words, rather than simply being critical of Trumpworld, wondering where they themselves went wrong. The conversations I've had along these lines usually involve some form of "What are you talking about?"

If they ever hope to fix things, they need to turn more of their focus on their own missteps. And they should start at the most obvious place: the southern border.

I can see what you’re saying. I haven’t really had those specific types of discussions, but I do think they’ve touched on post mortem stuff. I don’t know that it’s as much of where they went wrong as much of what they think they could do better, if that makes sense.

 

[mcmurtry66]

But my question is whether they've taken a look inward.

It's certainly not hard to find Lincoln Project types who will throw darts at Trump, Trump's sycophants, GOP pols who coddle up to him, etc. That sort of thing is all over the place and has been since 2016.

What I think is harder to find is introspection: the Kasiches, Ryans, Boehners, Romneys, etc. considering how it is that GOP voters came to divorce them as they did. In other words, rather than simply being critical of Trumpworld, wondering where they themselves went wrong. The conversations I've had along these lines usually involve some form of "What are you talking about?"

If they ever hope to fix things, they need to turn more of their focus on their own missteps. And they should start at the most obvious place: the southern border.

Love it

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Disagree on difference in policies with some notable areas agree re populism and trump riding that wave. He tapped into it

Tax reform, education choice, border control, immigration, CJ reform, energy. If anything Trump leaned liberal on immigration and CJ reform. But I think he was substantially main stream GOP.

 

[Ohio Guy]

Yes, if Biden is going to stay, I agree there is value to getting it done as quickly as possible.

If after everything that happens Biden is still the nominee and somehow pulls off a victory in November, I'll be equal parts relieved and sad. I really don't think it's realistic that Biden can effectively govern at a high level over the next 4 years until he's 86 years old. I just don't.
I guess I can sort of justify things by convincing myself I'm voting for the ticket (and voting against Trump), but I won't feel great about it.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Tax reform, education choice, border control, immigration, CJ reform, energy. If anything Trump leaned liberal on immigration and CJ reform. But I think he was substantially main stream GOP.

I will come back to this as I’m busy and drive by posting but think it’s worth revisiting

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I know I never said it here, because I wasn't posting here then. But I said it elsewhere (including to the person I know with the most influence within the Democratic party): they needed to be working on a different candidate a year ago.

But I fully understood how difficult that would be. Parties just don't dump incumbents. And primary challenges have come to be seen as taboo. To wit, no Democrats are praising Dean Phillips right now...even if they can all now see that his motivation for running had merit.

It's still possible that somebody else ends up on the ticket. And I think any of those options (including Harris) would be better than Biden....if for no other reason than to help with morale and unity.

I get why no one ran, Ted Kennedy showed what happens. Not a group to be in the next Profiles in Courage. Someone serious needed to.

Something has happened to one of us, I am agreeing with you way too much since your return.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

If after everything that happens Biden is still the nominee and somehow pulls off a victory in November, I'll be equal parts relieved and sad. I really don't think it's realistic that Biden can effectively govern at a high level over the next 4 years until he's 86 years old. I just don't.
I guess I can sort of justify things by convincing myself I'm voting for the ticket (and voting against Trump), but I won't feel great about it.

If Biden wins, I'd be surprised if he lasts even a year into his 2nd term. But I honestly don't think anybody should feel any apprehension about voting for him because of this. We have a succession process for a reason.

 

[IUNorth]

I don't think it increases the turnout of his base. I think it increases the turnout of his other voters. The Republicans who are not excited about MAGA but generally favor him over Biden anyway.

There's obviously no way to KNOW this...but it seemed pretty certain on Saturday before the shooting, that Biden was going to have a very difficult time shifting the momentum and prevailing narrative back in his direction...well enough to win the election in November. Most of the talk was about Biden needing to drop out, him not having a chance to win, etc...

The shooting helped Trump with every single voting block. It'll energize his supporters. And everyone else it will either soften their poor views of him, or lower the volume of their opposition.

At a time when Biden needs/needed an event that would do the opposite of those things...the shooting, in my opinion, essentially ended Bidens chance to beat Trump. I think Trump flips pretty much all those close 20' states, and holds every where else. Also, the shooting gives the Trump campaign a MUCH larger margin for error. I'm sure Trump will test that with insane statements and rhetoric over the next few months, but the shooting and "the picture" gives him nearly unlimited immunity.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

There's obviously no way to KNOW this...but it seemed pretty certain on Saturday before the shooting, that Biden was going to have a very difficult time shifting the momentum and prevailing narrative back in his direction...well enough to win the election in November. Most of the talk was about Biden needing to drop out, him not having a chance to win, etc...

The shooting helped Trump with every single voting block. It'll energize his supporters. And everyone else it will either soften their poor views of him, or lower the volume of their opposition.

At a time when Biden needs/needed an event that would do the opposite of those things...the shooting, in my opinion, essentially ended Bidens chance to beat Trump. I think Trump flips pretty much all those close 20' states, and holds every where else. Also, the shooting gives the Trump campaign a MUCH larger margin for error. I'm sure Trump will test that with insane statements and rhetoric over the next few months, but the shooting and "the picture" gives him nearly unlimited immunity.

I have no idea if you'll turn out to be right. At this point, the impact on polling seems muted. But I don't think that's surprising these days. There's just so much already cooked into the books. And it's hardly any secret that Trump is considered to have a "ceiling" somewhere in the mid to high 40s.

But, if I were Trump and his people, I would not at all be strutting around like they have this thing in the bag. Nobody should ever forget that Trump is (and long has been) well underwater on his favorability/approval numbers. The single biggest saving grace he has had to this point is that Biden's has been even further underwater.

That could all change in an instant if Dems get a new candidate. And, even if they don't, it's not as if Trump has some kind of insurmountable lead in the polling.

 

[76-1]

They were always doing the virtual roll call, because of Ohio changing their ballot deadline.

Ohio recently changed their deadline to 9/1/24 to accommodate Joe not to block him..., but of course you already knew that...

If they do the "virtual roll call" now it's solely to protect Ol' Joe because they don't believe he'll survive the Democratic Convention...

 

[Ohio Guy]

There's obviously no way to KNOW this...but it seemed pretty certain on Saturday before the shooting, that Biden was going to have a very difficult time shifting the momentum and prevailing narrative back in his direction...well enough to win the election in November. Most of the talk was about Biden needing to drop out, him not having a chance to win, etc...

The shooting helped Trump with every single voting block. It'll energize his supporters. And everyone else it will either soften their poor views of him, or lower the volume of their opposition.

At a time when Biden needs/needed an event that would do the opposite of those things...the shooting, in my opinion, essentially ended Bidens chance to beat Trump. I think Trump flips pretty much all those close 20' states, and holds every where else. Also, the shooting gives the Trump campaign a MUCH larger margin for error. I'm sure Trump will test that with insane statements and rhetoric over the next few months, but the shooting and "the picture" gives him nearly unlimited immunity.

I think there is definitely truth to all of this. I heard on a podcast this morning that Vance doesn't add much to the GOP ticket in a traditional sense. Recently, he's just more aligned with Trump's agenda and checks all the loyalty boxes. The bigger point to all of that was that if Trump didn't feel comfortable about winning, he probably would have picked someone else that would have helped in a swing state or with a certain demographic, which Vance does not do.