First of all, thanks for the serious respons.
My point about the Syrian cruise missiles was not a stand alone point, but one to support the overall point of effectiveness of decisive strong action. It really made no difference whether Trump signaled the attack or not, probably better that he did. The end result was no more gas attacks.
Of course we can never prove Biden caused Putin to attack Ukraine in such a horrendous fashion, although I believe that to be the case.
But we do have evidence that Biden,s timidity and his lack of foresight increased the risk of Putin’s attack. Biden‘s weakness in Afghanistan; his delaying Trump’s arms shipments, his obsession with the Putin-assisted Iran deal, and his failure to maintain strategic advantage by not telling Putin that all options were on the table if he attacked, were all part of the calculus. Couple that with Biden‘s obvious deficiencies and stubbornness and Putin’s decision making became easier.
I don’t see any evidence that Biden had anything to do with the sudden reversal of long-standing policies in Finland, Sweden, Switzerland and Germany. The Brits are more aggressive with their response than the US. I don’t know if the supply of arms is unprecedented or not, but I do know that the kinds of weapons we are willing to supply is very limited. High a,titude SAM’s and anti-personnel artillery would be huge. The Ukrainian military wanted the Mig 29’s and Biden personality stopped the deal. With those would have been parts and ordinance. That refusal was a mistake not only because of how the MiGs could be used, but the Biden spectacle of his decision sent yet another message to Putin that he will have no US resistance.
1) I absolutely do agree that Putin thought that now was the time to act after the Afghanistan debacle. He (correctly) figured that we would have no stomach to send troops right back into the fray. So the timing was right.
2) The problem I have with the saying that Putin didn't invade the Ukraine during Trump's watch is that it excludes all other factors from the story. There are SEVERAL major events that have happened in the world that could have been major reasons for Putin invading now as opposed to a few years ago.
For example:
A) Up until a year and a half ago, we had a significantly larger military presence relatively close by (Syria & Afghanistan).
B) The "Perfect Phone Call". To put it bluntly, the whistleblower thing put the Ukraine front and center in American / Western media when up until that time, 90% of America couldn't point to where the Ukraine was on a map (I mean, it's probably only improved to 80%, but you get the idea.....). Russia invading right when the Ukraine was already on everybody's mind might have gone over even worse than what's transpiring now.
C) Do I really need to mention the significant event of 2020 that might have prevented a war from starting?
D) China has been prepping for the Olympics for a few years now. We know already that they asked for the invasion not to happen until after they were completed. Do we know that China hadn't been pushing that concept for more than a few months, perhaps even a year or two?
E) According to some news sources, Russia envisioned new sanctions would be coming and had built up a war chest to offset this. While I am not a financial expert at all, my understanding is that the US tends to be a trendsetter on the world economy, as in, when we are experiencing a good economy, within a few years, the other world economies catch up (and vice-versa, when we tank, the rest of world doesn't tank for a little while thereafter). So it may have taken a good amount of time to build up that war chest (and god knows that Covid likely took things back a notch). It might have simply been that the money wasn't there until now.
America is a big fish, but frankly, the world does not revolve around us. There are possibly hundreds of factors even beyond the ones above from other countries that could have sped up or delayed this decision.