The way I see it, IU will be hiring a new coach at the end of this season no matter what, even if they win the NC this year (HA!!).
1) Anything less than a S16 appearance will be viewed as business as usual. No change in future plans.
2) A S16 will be a huge surprise (to say the least), but viewed as a nice send off that does not change future plans.
3) An E8 or better will be the story of the tournament, obviously. It will be ultimately viewed as the best IU send off ever (arguably the best college basketball send off ever if they make the FF), but it still will not change future plans.