Been waiting to see the Hoosiers advance past the Sweet 16 for my entire adult life. Curious when you all think we’ll even be back in the Sweet 16, let alone a Final Four. 😔
How many more years?
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Not until we become solid in the backcourt. And I don't think the OaD route is the answer. We need to find our next Yogi, next Jay Edwards, next Greg Graham, next Damon....Coverdale/Fife combo....without solid guard play, you do not see the second weekend of the tourney.
I agree. You also mention “combo”, which I like. The reason that the Fife/Coverdale combo was so successful imho was due to the collective adversity that the team went through. I’ve posted it before, that team was forged in the fires of adversity. Now, the circumstances of what they went through (RMK zero T/firing, etc.) will never be seen again, but the point is that their mental toughness was collective, a fox hole mentality. They developed together as a unit.
In x and Trey we have two players that are as senior as a senior can be. But, the team is a mish mash of transfers, players coming in for a year or two, etc. Everything has changed with the portal, and NIL, and having teams develop and progress collectively is going to get tougher when the Covid year falls off.
When teams develop collectively (as a combo) it instills culture. The new groups can learn from the older groups. And, every individual has the same agenda. I don’t feel like IUs players all have the same agenda or goals. We may never see that again at IU. It doesn’t please me, but when I look at that program just N of Indy off of 65, that’s what they’ve found.
Well, honestly, I don't feel like you're presenting a solution. If we got another Jay Edwards, he's probably leaving after a year or 2 at this point, and maybe even a Yogi or Graham would leave early. It does seem like most successful teams have Jr/Sr as leaders in the backcourt, but that's exactly the backcourt we had to begin the season in X and TG. I think we basically need 2 avenues: "roster" guys to develop and then augment that with 5* type guys or portal transfers. We could have those "roster" type guys in Cupps, Gunn and Newton, but Gunn doesn't seem to have progressed and who knows with Newton. I'm not a recruitnik, but I think we need to be signing 1-2 guards for that development track and then be looking in the portal for 2-3 more. I still have hope for Gunn, but with each game like Saturday, the hope fades. Not sure why CMW benched him so quickly, as he usually talks D, which I think is Gunn's strength, but it seemed like he was frustrated over him coming in and missing a jumper and the front end of a 1 and 1. I know the FT woes have to drive a coach crazy.
Agreed with you on the backcourt. Lander and Bates turning out to be duds were absolutely killer for us. I hate to say it but just looking at Smith and Loyer at PU shows that you can win with guys who don't come with all the stars next to their names. Hopefully Woody can identify and land some quality guards and he better do it damn soon.
Fland was a massive miss no matter how some try and spin it. We targeted nobody else and will now scramble this spring and hope we can land a few good guards. Right now I see maybe three playable guards for next year and that will not cut it. None of these three are what I would call fast or guys who can quickly break down a defense.
Trey?
Cupps
Liam
Gunn- will likely be gone but if not is not playable.
Newton- who knows if he will ever play again two years hurt is alot to recover from. I would certainly not count on him being a main guy.
The hornsby/ coverdale type players remind me of the the purdue guards. Not highly ranked but just know how to play and can flat out shoot.
There's no way to predict this, unless you believe this year's group will do it. For next year, from the scuttlebutt, I'd assume we lose KW and MM and know we are losing XJ and AW, plus any transfers or non returners, so without knowing who we get in the portal (or Derik Queen for instance) it's just a guess. I think this year's team could reach a S16, IF X comes back healthy. Otherwise, just too think in the backcourt.
Take Loyer out and I agree with you. Loyer sucks. Smith on the other hand...IU could really use.
That is a unique situation. All they need is someone to feed Edey, hit some open threes and chase down long rebounds. IU needs guards that can play defense and create shots...those two don't solve for that.
IU could use Branden Smith as a spot shooter but Cupps is already better on defense.
This might be the most intelligent post I’ve ever seen on this board. This team lacks mental toughness for an entire game and this post points out exactly why it is so hard to build in the current game
I will concede...it was a different era.
What are the chances Calbert stays all 4 yrs in today's climate? Love the guy to death, but c'mon....guys of less talent are not staying more than 2 yrs today.
Maybe I'm too old to respond to these type of questions.
Get off my lawn.
I was typing Smith's name to respond to KKott, but he did bring up a good point recently.....granted Smith has shown more development over the past year than some of the IU guys we're mentioning....but before we anoint Smith, let's see how he does once the big Canuck leaves. Edey makes a point guard's job much easier.
yep, that squad walked through hell together. Teams like that tend not to wilt under pressure. Something we have been lacking for many, many yrs.
Well sometimes teams that are mediocre get hot for two games..I saw Miami last year early..Sure didn't they were a f.f. team at all.
But with what we got...Not this yr or next.
Fland would have been a huge get...
But with what we got...Not this yr or next.
Fland would have been a huge get...
This is basically impossible to predict, with today's transfer/NIL dynamics at play. We could have a team 2 years from now with 10 guys on the roster that aren't today...
But here's my best guess...
This year...I'm going to predict no Sweet 16 this year. X would likely need to be back and fully healthy, in plenty of time for IU to win a bunch of B10 games, to get a decent seed...AND then they'd need to play well in their 2 NCAA games, AND not have a bad matchup.
Next year...We're likely losing Ware and Mgbako, and then we are losing X and Walker. Assuming we return everyone else, and land Davis and Queen. And that we also land an impactful perimeter player in the portal. And that Newton is healthy and ready to contribute. Lots of assumptions there...but there seems to be positive momentum with Queen, and the most recent crystal balls for Davis point towards IU, and its rumored each of their decisions could effect the others. Today, I think its a good chance we'll get both of them. And then I don't see Woody whiffing again on a main rotation perimeter player. He has to know how important it is by now. And then Newton will be almost 2 years removed from his original injury, and then over a year in IU's world class medical capabilities. I think it would be overly pessimistic to think he won't be physically capable of playing by next season. Having said all that...
PG/Ball Handlers...Cupps, Davis, Galloway, maybe transfer portal guy
Perimeter Scorers/Shooters...Galloway, Davis, maybe portal guy, McNeeley
Longer wings...McNeeley, Banks, Reneau
Post guys...Reneau, Sparks, Queen
Main rotation of Galloway, Cupps, Davis, Portal Perimeter Guy, McNeeley, Reneau, Queen, Sparks, Banks
That team could very easily go to a S16...
So I'll predict next year.
But here's my best guess...
This year...I'm going to predict no Sweet 16 this year. X would likely need to be back and fully healthy, in plenty of time for IU to win a bunch of B10 games, to get a decent seed...AND then they'd need to play well in their 2 NCAA games, AND not have a bad matchup.
Next year...We're likely losing Ware and Mgbako, and then we are losing X and Walker. Assuming we return everyone else, and land Davis and Queen. And that we also land an impactful perimeter player in the portal. And that Newton is healthy and ready to contribute. Lots of assumptions there...but there seems to be positive momentum with Queen, and the most recent crystal balls for Davis point towards IU, and its rumored each of their decisions could effect the others. Today, I think its a good chance we'll get both of them. And then I don't see Woody whiffing again on a main rotation perimeter player. He has to know how important it is by now. And then Newton will be almost 2 years removed from his original injury, and then over a year in IU's world class medical capabilities. I think it would be overly pessimistic to think he won't be physically capable of playing by next season. Having said all that...
PG/Ball Handlers...Cupps, Davis, Galloway, maybe transfer portal guy
Perimeter Scorers/Shooters...Galloway, Davis, maybe portal guy, McNeeley
Longer wings...McNeeley, Banks, Reneau
Post guys...Reneau, Sparks, Queen
Main rotation of Galloway, Cupps, Davis, Portal Perimeter Guy, McNeeley, Reneau, Queen, Sparks, Banks
That team could very easily go to a S16...
So I'll predict next year.
Loyer had 27 against TN and AZ. Purdue likely loses both games without him. He is close to 40% from 3.for the season.
He's shooting 42% from the field and can't guard his own shadow. Not to mention the fact that he is on the All-Flopper team.
I can't stand him and don't believe you can win it all with Loyer as your starting 2 guard.
Smith is a different story. IU could really use that bulldog.
I agree with all of this. Smith is a serious threat on offense though. And he isn't the defensive liability Loyer is. IU would be better right now with Smith running the show vs. Cupps. And I love Cupps.
Cupps is better defensively than at least 80% of college guards in the country. Maybe 90%. I'm looking forward to seeing what he is when he gains some confidence on the offensive end.
Woodson needs a few things to happen to have a top 10 team next year. Year 2 for Mgbako, to land Queen, and to score two good guards in the portal. It could happen next year if those things fall into place.
Based on what?? A SPOT SHOOTER??? Cupps wouldn't see the floor if he played for Purdue!
Braden was twice as good as a freshman than Cupps and Braden is playing at an ALL-AMERICAN level right now. Bradens record as a starter is 39-9 with wins over Duke, North Carolina, Alabama, Gonzaga twice, Marquette twice, Tennessee, Arizona, Xavier and West Virginia. Listen, Cupps maybe will end up being good, but has a long way to before he is on Braden Smiths level. If Cupps was that good IU would not be 110 on the NET with that soft schedule!
You Serious CLARK? Thats probably why IU's margin of victory this year 0.7, last in the BT because Cupps is one of the top 10% defensive guards in the country!
Bullshit! Neither Smith nor Loyer would sniff the floor at IU. If not for Lurch in the middle, neither would get a shot off. Unathletic and unable to create. Will get eaten alive in the conference. Cupps > Smith
Its difficult to evaluate what Smith would be without Edey...but its not difficult to say he wouldn't be putting up the numbers he currently is, without Edey's presence.
But the gap between Smith's overall play, and Cupps overall play, is so wide right now, its also hard to make a claim that Smith isn't the better overall player.
Cupps is a better defender...and I think, at this point, that's probably about it in terms of what he has on Smith.
As I've said a bunch of times, they aren't even remotely the same types of players. Cupps is a gritty, tenacious even, defender. He's solid with the ball, he makes the right reads and facilitates the offense. But he isn't any sort of active playmaker or shooter. Smith is a playmaker, on both ends of the floor. He gambles a lot of defense, which creates activity, but also causes him to get beat a lot and forces others to cover for him. On offense, he's just a lot more aggressive than Cupps. I don't think that aggressiveness would go away, without Edey. And I don't think all his production would go away either. But it would be harder, he'd be making plays with a lot more attention, so his numbers across the board, would take a hit, I'm sure. But again, there's such a huge difference right now in what he's doing overall, to what Cupps is doing...
Good point about chemistry. Maybe not even the same allegiance to the university if playing there for only one year
The Braden Smith vs Gabe Cupps debate has certainly quieted down now, hasn't it. He's another Tom Coverdale or Jordan Hulls. Going much farther back for the recall of the elderly, another Billy Keller for PU.
Loyer and smith both are better than what we have by quite a bit
Loyer isn't. Smith likely is.
Gabe is a year behind but learning the college game fast. He is heady leader that will make a huge difference for IU begining next year. Branden may always be a better shooter, not sure.
Cupps' stroke needs help. I coached a lot of players in AAU with better form. Spomeone here said he drifts and i agree.
He would give us an outside threat.
Smith for sure does:
Averaged 14 pts 5 Rebs and 6.7 ast
Count out the 13 wins they need in the conference to make the tourney. IU has very little room for error in conference and will need to win at places like Nebraska to have a shot
yeah his vertical plane is off about 5-10 degree as he's releasing in most cases, even when he's open (which isn't very often). Make him watch endless loop tapes of Alford coming off screens and squaring up.
Who better to learn from than Mr. Socks, shorts, 1,2,3....swish.
The verdict on Purdue and Smith won't come in until the tournament this year for PU and next year (is Edey out of eligibility this year, or could he come back?) for Braden, assuming ZE isn't back. I could get 6 assists a game tossing the ball to Zach and he also helps protect the paint if Smith's man gets by him. I love Braden Smith, but honestly even without XJ, I'm not sweating if Cupps has to guard him, and Trey guard Loyer. Just like with everyone, it will come down to can we effectively contend with and counter Edey. He's the only difference maker Purdue has.
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