Hillbilly Elegy- The reality show...

[cosmickid]

So let's look at three separate GOP Primary wins in Ohio. Vance for Portman's seat, DeWine running for Governor as an incumbent, and Majewski running in Ohio's 9th...I'm going to go out on a limb and speculate that the most likely to win the general, and most easily is DeWine. Significantly, DeWine won against 3 pro-Trump challengers and both Vance and Majewski basically won by being considered the most Trumpiest of candidates running in their respective races.

Majewski has a shot because the GOP has gerrymandered the 9th and it is no longer a safe Dem district. Under the new redistricting, it is essentially a district that Trump would have won by 3 points, so we'll see how Majewski's brand of extremism plays. He was in DC on Jan 6,although he maintains he never entered the Capitol.
He also has been photographed multiple times in QAnon gear, although he claims not to be "affiliated"...Even more cringeworthy is his MAGA rapper persona

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Not to mention his yard paint homage to Trump that earned him kudos from Tucker and a shoutout from the Orange one at his rally for "JP Mandel" last week...

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ction...Not to mention the Trump endorsement, which is a plus in the Primary but likely a negative in the gen
And speaking of "JP Mandel"...his race with Tim Ryan will be extremely interesting...



Here's some interesting comments from Feb...

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I predict this will be a much larger issue in the general election than it was with GOP Primary voters. Why?,
Because there are roughly 80,000 people who consider themselves of Ukrainian extraction in Northeast Ohio. Many of them are traditional Democrats, esp in the Cleveland/Parma area. Exactly the type of people Vance will have to win, and unlike his GOP opponents, Ryan is already poised to focus on issues like that, as well as the Thiel/Vance connection.

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Can Vance successfully tack back to center after having to go full on wingnut to come from 10 pts back in the Primary? Like I said, interesting...

I'm going to resurrect this post because Vance is in serious trouble in Ohio. Mitch is injecting $28 million (money he took out of PA,AZ and WI) to try and resurrect his campaign, and it may work. OH is more red than purple...

McConnell's super PAC mounts rescue mission for JD Vance in Ohio Senate race

The super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is dumping $28 million into Ohio to bolster J.D. Vance (R), who is in an unexpected dogfight with Rep.

gazette.com

But one of my predictions about this race appears to be coming true, and that was that Vance's hostility towards Ukraine would bite him in Ohio...

"And speaking of "JP Mandel"...his race with Tim Ryan will be extremely interesting...



Here's some interesting comments from Feb...




I predict this will be a much larger issue in the general election than it was with GOP Primary voters. Why?

Because there are roughly 80,000 people who consider themselves of Ukrainian extraction in Northeast Ohio. Many of them are traditional Democrats, esp in the Cleveland/Parma area. They are basically exactly the type of people Vance will have to win, and unlike his GOP opponents, Ryan is already poised to focus on issues like that, as well as the Thiel/Vance connection"


Ryan is a Union guy from the Youngstown area. He's well known and well liked around the state, and like Fetterman vs Oz this is another race where a the pro-Trump populist candidate has to try and appeal to many of the same voters his opponent naturally appeals to.

The Dems actually nominated the best possible candidates they could for statewide races in PA and Ohio with Fetterman and Ryan respectively. Savvy campaigners with working class appeal who will both likely garner more than their fair share of votes from "republican" voters...Vance is being hurt by his stance on Ukraine, as well as some pretty callous remarks he made about the need for people in abusive relations to stay in that marriage for the sake of their family..

Rookies make rookie mistakes, and savvy campaigners pounce. Like Mitch says, the quality of candidates matters...