Kamala Harris’s Tactical Problem | National Review
She needs to make the race a referendum on Trump, not the Trump administration.
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McCarthy nails it
Harris vs. Trump 2024
- Thread starter Aloha Hoosier
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www.nationalreview.com
McCarthy nails it
Should've been obvious. My mistake. Gotta remember who I'm speaking to on here.
I've never seen any pollster say their 'likely voter' methodology 'excludes' first time registrations, or assumes zero participation by first time registrants. Or that they won't survey and model that group.
That would seem insane.
Where do you find evidence of that claim?
,
You need to say what you mean. Everyone here is smarter than you so try to keep up.
Lmao. You mean you didn't immediately realize that Al Gore nearly won FL and obviously won Miami-Dade big but never became President? I'll try talking slower.
Dipshit, go back to your first post about it. Don't try to slip in where you made an effort to correct your stupid post. You posted something stupid. Don't get all upset about it, you do it all the time.
Far be it from me to agree with Cos, but trying to interpret early vote numbers seems a lot like reading tea leaves.
This could just be large scale cannibalization of Election Day vote since Trump has softened his same day voting stance, or maybe it’s a good omen, who knows.
They know they're losing big. I'm worried. Not about Trump losing but else what might happen in the next 2 weeks.
why can't people just be honest. you should immediately unfollow that person. he clearly stated politically lock him up. i.e. don't let him win the election. not throw him in jail in the next two weeks. beyong fing stupid. twitter is just passing along stupid lies this moron benny johnson is creating.
3 million people follow this stupid benny johnson? wtf. the dumbing down of the country at breakneck speed
You shared an outlet that routinely makes up stories out of whole cloth under the guise of “I’m not afraid of different opinions”. Again, shame on you.
Bullshit. You live in a misinformation bubble because you isolate yourself from any sources that might make you uncomfortable. Smart people do not do that.
No it isn't. No one says lock him up if you're referring to beating someone in a election.
dude. lock him up. don't let him get open. lock him up don't let him into office. he clearly said politically. what's more there is no way to put him in jail in the next two weeks. it's so stupid. he's appealing to voters to lock him up with their vote. good grief. as i said benny here is passing along misinformation. it's dumb.
There's a reason Carr didn't link the actual fact-check. He's afraid you'll read it and realize it actually makes sense and his criticism falls flat.
Post misleads on funds for internet access, EV charging stations | Fact check
Some of the $42 billion for expanded internet has been spent on planning. The $7.5 billion for EV charging is still ramping up.
www.usatoday.com
okay it clearly says politically. and i would hope by now you've learned i don't let anyone do my thinking for me. i don't give a shit what is in that article. i heard him with my own ears.
Biden on Trump 14 days before 2024 election: ‘We gotta lock him up!’
“If I said this 5 years ago, you’d lock me up: we gotta lock him up,” Biden, 81, said during a visit to a Democratic campaign office in New Hampshire.nypost.com
As opposed to the male Donald Trump?
Now this is what I call a "poll". A FREE app that basically allows anyone on the internet to just say whatever they want and make claims about who they say they are. And this poll's crosstabs find that men favor Trump by 61-37. Color me shocked that men on the internet favor Trump...
One thing I did find interesting. In their methodology they talk about 538's questions regarding transparency and provide a link. The link takes you to 538's listing of poll rankings, but when you search for ActiveVote's ranking you discover they are nowhere on the list...
Meanwhile 2 major polls (Morning Consult and Reuters) which showed Harris +5 and +3 respectively last week both have exactly the same margins in their new polls out today. Strange that with all this supposed Trump "momentum" that those polls,with completely different respondents from 1 week to the next find no slippage for Harris...
I thought maybe this was clipped and cut off the "politically lock him up". But it's right there in the caption, so I don't get the point the guy and you are trying to make?
I don’t see anything that says his numbers are incorrectThere's a reason Carr didn't link the actual fact-check. He's afraid you'll read it and realize it actually makes sense and his criticism falls flat.
Post misleads on funds for internet access, EV charging stations | Fact check
Some of the $42 billion for expanded internet has been spent on planning. The $7.5 billion for EV charging is still ramping up.www.usatoday.com
It explicitly says that some money has already been spent. Quite possibly they should have given it a "Lacks context" ruling rather than a "False" though.
It's one of the screening questions they ask regarding how many consecutive elections you have voted in. Pollsters screen "registered voters" for likely voters when they poll, so obviously they eliminate first time voters from the LV screen. If you dig into most reputable polls, you'll see they have a seperate set of data from registered and likely voters. They don't usually publicly release both...
I know they have separate registered vs likely. That wasn't what I questioned.
They all have their methods to model likelyhood. How often you actually have voted is certainly weighted much heavier than just registering. And weighted more than saying you will. But that's not saying they don't model a weight to first time registrants. No pollster is going to give up that massive an edge to the other pollsters.
I believe they're still weighting new registrants. Some will vote. The model probably says the likelyhood is low, but not zero. Anyway, if I'm wrong from what I've found, I'd enjoy reading the correct methodology. Anyway, doesn't matter. Just asking.
A New poll from Voto Latino found Trump closer to 30%...
"The Sept. 25-Oct. 2 survey found 64 percent of respondents support Harris, 31 percent support Trump and 5 percent support third-party candidates. A similar poll in April found 48 percent support for then-presumptive Democratic nominee President Biden, 33 percent for Trump and 12 percent for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The new poll found substantial differences in Latino voter intent state-to-state. Eliminating third-parties in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, 59 percent, 62 percent and 61 percent of respondents voiced support for Harris, respectively.
In Arizona, 66 percent said they support Harris, as did 67 percent in North Carolina and 77 percent in Pennsylvania"
I'm not sure what you're confused about? One of the reasons the Red Wave never materialized was because no one polled the first time pro-choice voters who registered after Dobbs. That's why Dems have been consistently undervalued (and I'd argue it's happening again) in the wake of the change in the political landscape post Dobbs...
The 8pm update tonight shows nearly 1.5 million more women have voted than men 54% -44%. Of course some of them are GOP, but we also know that 11% more Dems have voted than GOP, nationwide. I think Women's Reproductive Health is an issue the pollsters are sleeping on...
The highly decorated and honorable John Kelly is warning everyone again tonight the risk of a second Trump term.
Literally every accomplished person that served under him is against him. Giants of industry and the military. They all can't be wrong. Tillerson, Mattis, Kelly, Bolton, McMaster, Clark, etc.
Literally every accomplished person that served under him is against him. Giants of industry and the military. They all can't be wrong. Tillerson, Mattis, Kelly, Bolton, McMaster, Clark, etc.
But But But, nameless functionaries left Harris's staff because they said she was "mean"...
Open Shooter said first time registrants aren't in 'likely voters'. Ever. I said they are. At a low weight. I'm only confused about why you want to talk about everything else? When all I asked was for proof of that. If they aren't, ever, fine.
I was only seeking the methodology why no pollster would poll them and weight the answers based on likelyhood.
The intelligent people know exactly what he meant. Biden and Harris are extremely dangerous. It's obvious what they're trying.
Murt, you're probably a good dude but you're completely missing the point. Of course he isn't being locked up before the election. And of course the completely absurd Hitler rhetoric by Harris wasn't designed to change anyone's vote. It's all designed to get a left wing nut to take action before the election. It's all they have. These are some of the sickest people we've ever had leading our country.
