Harris vs. Trump 2024

[outside shooter]

One important aspect of almost all of the polls is that the people polled must fit the definition of "likely voters". Limiting it to them seems, on the surface, to be wise: if someone is unlikely to vote, then their choice means absolutely nothing.

But the details of the likely voters definition are important. Specifically, anyone who would be a first time voter is almost always NOT considered to be a likely voter.

The issues of abortion, LGBTQ rights, environment, and (in many states) referendums to relax marijuana laws have together have caused a spike in people registering to vote for the first time in many states.

Will they vote? History says no. But there would appear to be an unusual degree of interest in the under-30 crowd, reflected at least in voter registration numbers. If they show up then it is a potentially large voting block that virtually all pollsters are purposefully ignoring under the expectation that few of them will bother to cast votes.

Whereas most polls in the past have indeed underestimated Trump's support, this factor may be doing the opposite, as the under-30 demographic is strongly anti-Trump

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

Whereas most polls in the past have indeed underestimated Trump's support, this factor may be doing the opposite, as the under-30 demographic is strongly anti-Trump

Maybe. But that might also be "hopium" -- and it can be tough to tell the difference.

To buttress your point, though, there have been some political analysts who think that Florida will be more competitive this year than it was in recent elections...specifically because abortion and pot measures are on the ballot. They could be right -- and, if they are, that should provide a boost for Democratic candidates.

However, FL isn't likely to be a decisive state. It looks like a lot of the focus is being put on PA -- certainly from Trump's camp, if not both of them. Their strategy seems to be to focusing on one of the 3 Blue Wall states and just hammering the hell out of it...letting the other two fall where they may.

 

[outside shooter]

Perhaps it is hopium.

This is purely anecdotal, but my 3 kids are all in the 25-30 age group. They have always been fairly politically active, and like their Mom, left-leaning. They all claim that their classmates are unusually politically engaged. One is in a red state (FL), one a deep blue state (Hawaii), and the third in a battleground state (Pennsylvania).

 

[BradStevens]

Could probably dig up enough in Lake County to swing that bitch for the foreseeable future. Wisconsin should be a red state. Culturally it definitely is.

Kinda shocked it hasn't been done. Wisconsin residency requirements to vote are very loose.

 

[BradStevens]

This morning on Polymarket the odds of Trump winning the popular vote was practically the same as Harris winning the election.

Wait, what now? How do I bet that? I'll drop every dime I have access to on Trump not winning the popular vote.

 

[BradStevens]

I feel ya, BCC. It's depressing -- because I know for a fact that this country has gobs of really smart and talented leaders.

Anyway, I'm voting for a guy who isn't eligible, who barely speaks English, who is a little wacky himself, and who has a hairstyle that is oddly reminiscent of Wolverine. He won't win and he couldn't serve if he did. But I'm completely at peace with it. I've found it liberating to not feel compelled to carry the water for Donald Trump just because I'm a Republican and he's....well....taken ownership of the Republican Party.

 

[snarlcakes]

Is it legal for Americans to participate in that? If so, bet against that. And bet big.

He probably won't even win all of his states by a sum total of as much as Harris will win just California. Biden won it by 5 million votes. Trump won every single state he won last election by a total of 3.2 million votes.

You can bet if you own crypto and a wallet. The strange thing is it hasn’t moved back this time. The last time it swung quickly back to Harris, but not this time, so far.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Good summation.

 

[cosmickid]

Look at their 2020 polls. Final late October poll was Biden +17 in WI. They overstated Biden by 6 in PA. Overstated by 4.5 in MI. Had Biden winning NC, etc.

And that poll is 3 weeks old. Almost every national poll released in the last week has shown a 4-5 point towards Trump.

An aggregate when all the phony GOP polls are averaged in as if theiy're legit is not the same as saying every poll released last week was 4-6 point towards Trump. In fact there were at least 4 or 5 A quality polls released last week that showed the exact opposite...

Marist- Oct 16. This was LV, and as Outisde mentioned above the LV screen does not pick up all the women (esp in PA) who registered subsequent to Harris being nominated...

• "Harris (52%) leads Trump (47%) among likely voters nationally, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Earlier this month, two points separated Harris (50%) and Trump (48%) among likely voters."

Morning Consult Oct 16 poll showed harris 50-46

YouGov/Economist Harris 49-45

Suffolk U/USA Harris 50-49


And now today's WAPO...

Now there were two outlier polls released by AtlasIntel Oct 12-17 which showed Trump +3 and skewed the aggregate. And I know that you're going to claim they were the most "accurate" pollster in 2020, but they (and you) are resting on faded laurels. They disastrously missed on OZ and Walker in 2022 and there is no evidence that they have any ability to be accurate post Dobbs and the changing electorate.. Unlike Marist who basically nailed 2022...

 

[cosmickid]

Good summation.

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I'd say as the incumbent in 2020 Trump had more resources to close harder, and there was still a shy Trump voter out there. This year Harris has a far superior GOTV operation, tons more money,and the likely scenario is more shy Harris voters who don't want to publicly defy their husbands...

Every election since Dobbs has underestimated the effect of Dobbs and hidden strength of the Dems. I don't see why post Jan 6, all Trump's legal issues and Dobbs, that will be any different in 2024...

If LV screens don't pick up women who registered following Harris entering the race, then they aren't accurately p/u the roll abortion plays in that demogrpahic's list of issues...

 

[outside shooter]

You can bet if you own crypto and a wallet.

What's the demographics? How skewed is it toward males?

Crypto ownership is pretty heavily skewed toward males: Approximately 52 percent of male respondents say that they have invested in blockchain and cryptocurrency assets, which is double the rate of female respondents at 26 percent

https://www.investmentnews.com/alternatives/theres-a-gender-gap-in-emerging-tech-investment/252553#:~:text=Approximately%2052.24%20percent%20of%20male,female%20respondents%20at%2026.01%20percent.

Polymarket may be more Trump leaning just by being so male-oriented

 

[cosmickid]

Hey @dbmhoosier, curious to hear your thoughts on the Washington Post's battleground state poll out today. This should serve as a bucket of cold water over the heads of anybody who thinks Trump has this in the bag.

I'm not saying that I buy it. For instance, while Harris could win Georgia, I'd be stunned if she won it by 4%. In fact, I think a number of these margins seem higher than what I'm expecting to see.

But that's beside the point. The point is that this election is close and very much up in the air.

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Right now I'd substitute NC for GA, but the rest looks pretty accurate...

I do think that a superior GOTV operation in NV will result in a Harris victory there. Much the same as the way Cortez-Masto fooled all the pundits by upsetting Laxalt in 2022

 

[stollcpa]

Dream Teamersssssssssas mount up…. @stollcpa Musk needs you in Pennsylvania.

Hoping all my Amish Brothers vote 😂

 

[cosmickid]

What's the demographics? How skewed is it toward males?

Crypto ownership is pretty heavily skewed toward males: Approximately 52 percent of male respondents say that they have invested in blockchain and cryptocurrency assets, which is double the rate of female respondents at 26 percent

https://www.investmentnews.com/alternatives/theres-a-gender-gap-in-emerging-tech-investment/252553#:~:text=Approximately%2052.24%20percent%20of%20male,female%20respondents%20at%2026.01%20percent.

Polymarket may be more Trump leaning just by being so male-oriented

Think about it, exactly what insight into US politics do a bunch of foreign investors have? What they see/hear from Right wing media?

Hell let's just poll the UFC and have that be our standard...

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

Hoping all my Amish Brothers vote 😂

Honest question because I don’t know. Do many Amish vote? I always thought they probably didn’t. I could be wrong.

 

[BCCHoosier]

Honest question because I don’t know. Do many Amish vote? I always thought they probably didn’t. I could be wrong.

Interesting question. Maybe Stoll will see this. I'd assume they don't, but nothing to back this up.

 

[outside shooter]

Southern Indiana Mennonites vote, and they skew way right. My late brother was one.

 

[snarlcakes]

Yeah my go-to guys are Bailey77 and Dbm. Not surprising I guess. Particularly when considering my financial guy is a Boogerballer, a vending driver, and snarl, a bitcoiner

Thanks. The BoogerCakes Consulting company motto is “We think outside the box, to get you in the box”.

 

[snarlcakes]

Wait, what now? How do I bet that? I'll drop every dime I have access to on Trump not winning the popular vote.

lol…one of my Bitcoiners and he doesn’t know what a crypto wallet is 🤣🤣🤣

 

[SqueakyClean]

Interesting question. Maybe Stoll will see this. I'd assume they don't, but nothing to back this up.

I've always been under the impression that Amish are decently patriotic. I would think they take their voting responsibilities seriously.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Hoping all my Amish Brothers vote 😂

I've always been under the impression that Amish are decently patriotic. I would think they take their voting responsibilities seriously.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I've always been under the impression that Amish are decently patriotic. I would think they take their voting responsibilities seriously.

Hardworking god fearing rugged individualists who don’t need the gov in their lives. There’s only one direction they’ll vote. Donald John Trump

 

[snarlcakes]

What's the demographics? How skewed is it toward males?

Crypto ownership is pretty heavily skewed toward males: Approximately 52 percent of male respondents say that they have invested in blockchain and cryptocurrency assets, which is double the rate of female respondents at 26 percent

https://www.investmentnews.com/alternatives/theres-a-gender-gap-in-emerging-tech-investment/252553#:~:text=Approximately%2052.24%20percent%20of%20male,female%20respondents%20at%2026.01%20percent.

Polymarket may be more Trump leaning just by being so male-oriented

I agree that’s a valid concern. If its predictions are off, it will most likely be one of the main reasons.

 

[outside shooter]

Did you think he was just going to throw on an apron on and hop in during the middle of a regular shift?

Of course not. No way he could pass the background check. McDonalds won't hire convicted felons.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Well, their point about it being staged is not just the part about him working, but the drive-thru customers being vetted supporters...the store was actually closed to the general public.

However, I don't think that's at all surprising either. The Secret Service would never allow random people come within inches of a protected individual without having first gone through a security screen.

The Secret Service doesn't need any more egg on its face than it already has.

Bingo. Look at the idiot tweet snarl shared just a few posts after yours.

 

[cosmickid]

I've already made this point at the WC, but it's worth making again.

I wasn't active here last year. But I started saying in the summer of 2023 or so that the influential Democrats (primarily the Obamas, the Clintons, Pelosi, and Schumer) should get to work ASAP on getting Joe Biden out of the race. He was already demonstrating bad signs and it seemed a very reasonable guess that those would only get worse with time. It can be surprising how quickly those symptoms can progress. And that's exactly what they did.

In retrospect, it was smart to schedule that debate in June. But it was still too late, really -- not to change candidates, but to change to the best candidate in the best way.

If you looked carefully enough, you could find some smart Dems pushing back on this by saying that the party would be better served by not having a divisive primary where a Bernie-like candidate could once again perform well enough to cause a rift. And I think there was something to be said for that.

But the flip side is: that means they have to hitch their wagons to Kamala Harris....who, when she was a regular candidate herself and despite a pretty nice money haul, didn't even make it to the first primary contest in Iowa before dropping out. It would be like Republicans maneuvering in a way that forced them to go with Gov. Scott Walker.

I don't know if a candidate like Shapiro or Whitmer would've won the nomination in a regular primary. We can only speculate. But I do suspect that, if Dems had nominated either one of these, they'd stand better chances to win than Harris currently does.

"If you looked carefully enough, you could find some smart Dems pushing back on this by saying that the party would be better served by not having a divisive primary where a Bernie-like candidate could once again perform well enough to cause a rift. And I think there was something to be said for that."

In at least 124 yrs no sitting WH party that is not running an incumbent has been able to retain the WH after a contentious Primary/Convention. HRC came closest and a large part of why she ultimately lost was defecting Bernie Bros in the Blue Wall voting Trump,3rd party or staying home.

No matter how someone feels about Lichtman's keys, history says it would have been disastrous for the Dems to hold an open convention...

 

[cosmickid]

Of course not. No way he could pass the background check. McDonalds won't hire convicted felons.

Bill Kristol says "hold my beer"...



And I just saw this one... This is hilarious...

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

"If you looked carefully enough, you could find some smart Dems pushing back on this by saying that the party would be better served by not having a divisive primary where a Bernie-like candidate could once again perform well enough to cause a rift. And I think there was something to be said for that."

In at least 124 yrs no sitting WH party that is not running an incumbent has been able to retain the WH after a contentious Primary/Convention. HRC came closest and a large part of why she ultimately lost was defecting Bernie Bros in the Blue Wall voting Trump,3rd party or staying home.

No matter how someone feels about Lichtman's keys, history says it would have been disastrous for the Dems to hold an open convention...

This was a unique situation. And it wasn’t hard to predict that Biden would continue losing steps as time went on. Plenty of people were pointing this out, but none of them mattered and nobody who did matter was listening. I imagine they were thinking similar to what you’re saying here.

But there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Dems would be in a better situation now had Biden not run and allowed for a normal primary process to take place….because that process likely would’ve led to a candidate like Shapiro or Whitmer being nominated.

The states that matter are their stomping grounds. Instead, they’re left with having to redefine a California lefty, in unprecedented short order, who has appeared in hours of video promoting an agenda that was never designed to appeal to independent voters in purple states.

 

[cosmickid]

This is a much better barometer than any poll. Biden's victory was what 80k there? Well we just cut that by 15k in one week. Wow.

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That is a single week and it doesn't represent total registration. As of 1 month ago Dems still held a 343,000 advantage in registered voters statewide, and I'm not sure how you think a 15,000 net plus is earth shattering...

Also I'm a little confused how those numbers could be final since today Oct 21 is the final day for registration and you can either register in person or online up until COB today. So obviously a tweet from 9am on Oct 21 (today) can't be accurate as far as final tally goes...

Fun With Maps: Voter Registration by County (Sept. 2024)

A look at voter registration numbers in Pennsylvania's 67 counties

www.politicspa.com

 

[stollcpa]

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In many parts of the country the Bishops don’t allow their Amish to vote.

 

[stollcpa]

Honest question because I don’t know. Do many Amish vote? I always thought they probably didn’t. I could be wrong.

I would say most don’t. Most Bishops forbid it.

 

[Baller23Boogie]

I would say most don’t. Most Bishops forbid it.

Wow.

That's really interesting. Why is that the case? Is it a religious thing or do they just not believe in voting?

 

[Lucy01]

This was a unique situation. And it wasn’t hard to predict that Biden would continue losing steps as time went on. Plenty of people were pointing this out, but none of them mattered and nobody who did matter was listening. I imagine they were thinking similar to what you’re saying here.

But there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Dems would be in a better situation now had Biden not run and allowed for a normal primary process to take place….because that process likely would’ve led to a candidate like Shapiro or Whitmer being nominated.

The states that matter are their stomping grounds. Instead, they’re left with having to redefine a California lefty, in unprecedented short order, who has appeared in hours of video promoting an agenda that was never designed to appeal to independent voters in purple states.

Wow.

That's really interesting. Why is that the case? Is it a religious thing or do they just not believe in voting?

They don’t trust the English!

 

[BradStevens]

What's the demographics? How skewed is it toward males?

Crypto ownership is pretty heavily skewed toward males: Approximately 52 percent of male respondents say that they have invested in blockchain and cryptocurrency assets, which is double the rate of female respondents at 26 percent

https://www.investmentnews.com/alternatives/theres-a-gender-gap-in-emerging-tech-investment/252553#:~:text=Approximately%2052.24%20percent%20of%20male,female%20respondents%20at%2026.01%20percent.

Polymarket may be more Trump leaning just by being so male-oriented

It isn’t a poll, though. They are betting. Different beast.

 

[hookyIU1990]

I would say most don’t. Most Bishops forbid it.

Not all Bishops are created equal

 

[BradStevens]

Hardworking god fearing rugged individualists who don’t need the gov in their lives. There’s only one direction they’ll vote. Donald John Trump

Can you imagine going into an Amish community and trying to explain the progressive position on “gender affirming care?”

 

[hookyIU1990]

It isn’t a poll, though. They are betting. Different beast.

Let him roll. This could very well end up being great material for later use.

Bonus: He just did what he chastises others for doing: cherry-picking ideas and using Google "research" to support a wrong opinion.

 

[hookyIU1990]

Can you imagine going into an Amish community and trying to explain the progressive position on “gender affirming care?”

 

[mcmurtry66]

Can you imagine going into an Amish community and trying to explain the progressive position on “gender affirming care?”

Hello sir my name is McMurtry. Could I have a quick word
Ay
And what is your name?
Stoltfus
Stoltfus I’m with the Democratic party and I’d like to talk to you about the election
Ay
We’d like to ask for your vote
Ay
There are three things that are of the utmost importance this election. Abortion. Gender affirming care for minors. And climate change. Now I know you’re doing your part with the horse and buggies bit but still. We’ll also explore reparations Stoltfus. Are those things that are important to you and your family? Can i count on your vote Stoltfus?

 

[mcmurtry66]

Let him roll. This could very well end up being great material for later use.

Bonus: He just did what he chastises others for doing: cherry-picking ideas and using Google "research" to support a wrong opinion.

No one gets it wrong more than shitter