Expectations...

[Courtsensetwo]

Basically, Allen achieved the same level of output last year as the previous 2 years. It was 1 whopping game difference, like it has been the previous 3 years with Wilson at the helm. Let’s not paint it any differently.
It was not a “huge” step back as some here are trying to paint it. It hinges on 1 game. Last year, it was Maryland. 2016, we had to beat Rutgers and Purdue. 2015, had to overcome a near 20 point deficit at Maryland in the 1st quarter to wn the pivotal game.
Last year was disappointing. If it continues this year, I’ll get concerned.

Correct. IU missed a bowl by two plays at PU playing an ineffective backup QB.

Recruiting class has stacked up as very high potential.

We can assume that the mistreatment of injured players and alleged inappropriate civic behavior has stopped.

i don't know if Allen will raise the program up substantially, but the early indications are positive.

 

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

Any evaluation of Allen, along with expectation setting for the coming season, should be based on the merits, as you rightly stated. So far, the Allen regime posted a 5-7 record in spite of returning 16 starters and experience at every position, and produced the 10th rated recruiting class in the Big Ten, 12th if judged purely on rivals star ratings, ahead of Rutgers and Illinois. There are large question marks at quarterback, receiver, running back, offensive line and tight end on offense, and at linebacker and corner on defense. Also, the all Big Ten kicker is gone, too. With those undeniable merits, Upset's prediction for 2018 carries great credibility.

In your zeal to use selective facts to denigrate Allen, you ignored that the team lost these starters:

OL - Jacob Bailey
OL - Dan Feeney
OL - Wes Rogers
RB - Devine Redding

Also lost WR Ricky Jones and WR Mitchell Paige, then lost WR Westbrook on the opening kick off.

Also replaced the ENTIRE offensive staff.

3 OL and the feature back.
Then - surprise - we had a season where the running game was the No. 1 problem.
Shocking? Nope.
Everybody called it.

So it is not really accurate to say that they had all the experience you claimed, and to suggest (which you were trying to do, and have done consistently, along with others) they were a juggernaut that Allen misused.

True, 5-7 was not the best the team could have done.

They had a golden opportunity to steal a really good win and let the Michigan game get away.
But look back ... let go to the tape.

We got to open with No. 2 OSU, then beat Virginia (who weakened, but bowled), then play at No. 4 PSU (worst first quarter since the 1978 IM Hipp debacle), then beat Ga, Southern in a post-hurricane switch.

3-2. All went according to Hoyle and history.

We get to play No. 17 Michigan.
No. 1 "total" defense in the country.
No. 1 "third down" defense in the country.
We get down 13-3 at half.
9 out of 10 IU teams fold in that spot.
New staff.
Freshman QB in 1st conference start.

Not this team.

Michigan got the ball 9 times in the second half.
We forced 8 punts! 7 were "3 and out"s!

We make it 13-10.
Give them 1 stinking play - a 59 yard run TD.
With 10 minutes left, were down 20-10.
Fold?
Hell no.
Whop and Oakes tie it up.

We fought like hell.
Lost - but Harbaugh crapped his Khakis.

Maryland was the other game of regret. By then we had lost Ellison (RB), Ball (Husky) and Riggins (Corner), and Ramsey got knocked out in the 3rd quarter.

Bucket Game.
1st play - INT.
Crap.
We lacked the mental toughness to win this one.
If we had won Michigan and Maryland, and we're 7-4 instead of 5-6, maybe its a different vibe.

Still, 5-7 for that team, under the circumstances they faced week-to-week as a whole, was ZERO reason to be coach-bitching.

Zero.

If you wanna compare circumstances, Wilson came in in 2011 and had 15 starters returning, including Damarlo Belcher and Ted Bolser. (Had Darius Willis too - he became the first injured player to get crossways with Wilson - "You guys sure talk a lot about the guys who don't play.")

Had Stephen Houston, Tre Roberson, DeAngelo Roberts, Kofi Hughes, Shane Wynn, Cody Latimer, Dusty Keil, Duwyce Wilson, Greg Heban, Flo Hardin, Mark Murphy. Mitch Ewald, Adam Replogle, Mike Replogle, Chase Hoobler, Larry Black, Donnell Jones, Chris Adkins, Nick Sliger, Michael Hunter, Max Dedmond. We all thought a lot of those guys.

Went 1-11.
Lost to Ball State and North Texas.
Nobody called for his head.

I agree that Wilson left Allen a deeper roster than Lynch left Wilson.

I disagree that what we saw in the field last year wasn't a good start for yet another in along line of post-Mallory new coaches.

And folks who think a national search would have produced an in-basket full of resumes of guys better than Allen? Stop dreaming.

 

[Block charge large]

In your zeal to use selective facts to denigrate Allen, you ignored that the team lost these starters:

OL - Jacob Bailey
OL - Dan Feeney
OL - Wes Rogers
RB - Devine Redding

Also lost WR Ricky Jones and WR Mitchell Paige, then lost WR Westbrook on the opening kick off.

Also replaced the ENTIRE offensive staff.

3 OL and the feature back.
Then - surprise - we had a season where the running game was the No. 1 problem.
Shocking? Nope.
Everybody called it.

So it is not really accurate to say that they had all the experience you claimed, and to suggest (which you were trying to do, and have done consistently, along with others) they were a juggernaut that Allen misused.

True, 5-7 was not the best the team could have done.

They had a golden opportunity to steal a really good win and let the Michigan game get away.
But look back ... let go to the tape.

We got to open with No. 2 OSU, then beat Virginia (who weakened, but bowled), then play at No. 4 PSU (worst first quarter since the 1978 IM Hipp debacle), then beat Ga, Southern in a post-hurricane switch.

3-2. All went according to Hoyle and history.

We get to play No. 17 Michigan.
No. 1 "total" defense in the country.
No. 1 "third down" defense in the country.
We get down 13-3 at half.
9 out of 10 IU teams fold in that spot.
New staff.
Freshman QB in 1st conference start.

Not this team.

Michigan got the ball 9 times in the second half.
We forced 8 punts! 7 were "3 and out"s!

We make it 13-10.
Give them 1 stinking play - a 59 yard run TD.
With 10 minutes left, were down 20-10.
Fold?
Hell no.
Whop and Oakes tie it up.

We fought like hell.
Lost - but Harbaugh crapped his Khakis.

Maryland was the other game of regret. By then we had lost Ellison (RB), Ball (Husky) and Riggins (Corner), and Ramsey got knocked out in the 3rd quarter.

Bucket Game.
1st play - INT.
Crap.
We lacked the mental toughness to win this one.
If we had won Michigan and Maryland, and we're 7-4 instead of 5-6, maybe its a different vibe.

Still, 5-7 for that team, under the circumstances they faced week-to-week as a whole, was ZERO reason to be coach-bitching.

Zero.

If you wanna compare circumstances, Wilson came in in 2011 and had 15 starters returning, including Damarlo Belcher and Ted Bolser. (Had Darius Willis too - he became the first injured player to get crossways with Wilson - "You guys sure talk a lot about the guys who don't play.")

Had Stephen Houston, Tre Roberson, DeAngelo Roberts, Kofi Hughes, Shane Wynn, Cody Latimer, Dusty Keil, Duwyce Wilson, Greg Heban, Flo Hardin, Mark Murphy. Mitch Ewald, Adam Replogle, Mike Replogle, Chase Hoobler, Larry Black, Donnell Jones, Chris Adkins, Nick Sliger, Michael Hunter, Max Dedmond. We all thought a lot of those guys.

Went 1-11.
Lost to Ball State and North Texas.
Nobody called for his head.

I agree that Wilson left Allen a deeper roster than Lynch left Wilson.

I disagree that what we saw in the field last year wasn't a good start for yet another in along line of post-Mallory new coaches.

And folks who think a national search would have produced an in-basket full of resumes of guys better than Allen? Stop dreaming.

Oh, I'm familiar with the players who didn't return (you omitted Dimitric Camiel from the list of O linemen) but, due to wholesale injuries suffered by that group in 2016, their backups got a fair amount of experience. Unfortunately, it didn't transfer to the field in 2016. And 16 returning starters is 16 returning starters, plus an all conference kicker.

As for the new coaches, a couple left on their own, a couple weren't retained. Coaching changes usually include a complete transition of coaches from one regime to the next. That wasn't the case at IU.

As for games, there were some close losses for sure, but they were losses, nonetheless.

And discussing what the results of a national coaching search would've produced seem pointless. IU chose to not engage in a search for or contemplation of any other coach besides Allen, so we'll never know what might've been.

 

[Indianaftw]

I agree that Ramsey does have an accurate arm, but his percentage was boosted because he only threw to underneath routes. His glaring flaw is that he was not able to hurt teams with the deep ball. Defenses started walking up on him because they knew he couldn’t take the top off. They closed down passing windows, and gave him less space to use his legs as the season went on. He appears to be a great kid, but he won’t last if he doesn’t figure out how to throw it down the field. Considering what he put on film last year, he will have to connect on multiple long balls every game for half of the season before Big Ten teams will respect him. McSorley was in the same position and proved he can throw it.

Totally agree never got the ball down the field and how many damn times on 3rd down did we complete a pass and NOT move the chains with Ramsey at QB. A TON, take some shots!

 

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

Totally agree never got the ball down the field and how many damn times on 3rd down did we complete a pass and NOT move the chains with Ramsey at QB. A TON, take some shots!

Great question!
So I looked.

First, I was SHOCKED at how many times we threw on 3rd down - 159 out of 211 (if I counted right).

If I counted right, Ramsey threw 72 times on 3rd down.
He made it 25 times.
That's 35%.
He threw 29 incomplete and 2 INT's.
16 completions came up short of the first.


If I counted right, Lagow threw 87 times on 3rd.
He made it 29 times.
That's 33%.
He threw 28 incomplete, 4 INT's.
26 completions came up short.

Overall, we were 80 for 211 (38%) on 3rd down.
Our opponents were 55 for 184 (30%)

We were 5th in the league:

Wisconsin 48.6
Penn State 48.0
Ohio State 46.5
Michigan State 44.9
Indiana 37.9

 

[Upset Alert]

Basically, Allen achieved the same level of output last year as the previous 2 years. It was 1 whopping game difference, like it has been the previous 3 years with Wilson at the helm. Let’s not paint it any differently.
It was not a “huge” step back as some here are trying to paint it. It hinges on 1 game. Last year, it was Maryland. 2016, we had to beat Rutgers and Purdue. 2015, had to overcome a near 20 point deficit at Maryland in the 1st quarter to wn the pivotal game.
Last year was disappointing. If it continues this year, I’ll get concerned.

I'm not seeing anyone implying a "huge" step backward as you claim. Perhaps you can show me otherwise, but let's not pretend 7 wins wasn't easily within grasp. No matter what level of output, or stats people want to bring up, the only one that matters at the end of the day is in the W-L column. Anything else, is more of a matter in looking for moral victories.

 

[MyTeamIsOnTheFloor]

I'm not seeing anyone implying a "huge" step backward as you claim. Perhaps you can show me otherwise, but let's not pretend 7 wins wasn't easily within grasp. No matter what level of output, or stats people want to bring up, the only one that matters at the end of the day is in the W-L column. Anything else, is more of a matter in looking for moral victories.

“Easily” - no. There is nothing easy about Big Ten East football.

W-L “only one that matters” - could not disagree more. Knowing just a win-loss record tells you nothin about where a team is strong or weak, or whether they are improving or declining, or if they have “heart” or quit. If W-L is all that mattered, we would not have fired Cam, who had just won 5 for the first time, or Lynch, whose W was trending up/getting better.

Anybody watching closely saw what Wilson did, and did not do, and saw a team last year that did NOT take a big step back, as most programs do after a coaching change, and as they “easily” could have done under the circumstances.

Understanding strengths and weaknesses is “looking for moral victories” only on fan message boards. At a stadium, they call it “coaching.”

Hang in there. Fight WITH this team a while.

 

[oldcougar77]

“Easily” - no. There is nothing easy about Big Ten East football.

W-L “only one that matters” - could not disagree more. Knowing just a win-loss record tells you nothin about where a team is strong or weak, or whether they are improving or declining, or if they have “heart” or quit. If W-L is all that mattered, we would not have fired Cam, who had just won 5 for the first time, or Lynch, whose W was trending up/getting better.

Anybody watching closely saw what Wilson did, and did not do, and saw a team last year that did NOT take a big step back, as most programs do after a coaching change, and as they “easily” could have done under the circumstances.

Understanding strengths and weaknesses is “looking for moral victories” only on fan message boards. At a stadium, they call it “coaching.”

Hang in there. Fight WITH this team a while.

The "16 returning starter" argument is beyond stupid. For starters, the most important position group on a football team is the OL. When that group is decimated by graduation and injuries, success is going to be difficult no matter if everybody else is back.

Add to that the number of those 16 returners who were out all or most of the year with injuries, what we had returning (and able to actually contribute) was no more than any of our opponents. We had essentially no advantage.

Furthermore, one of those 16 was a quarterback with an extremely limited skill set who never performed consistently enough to be a difference maker. Our other option there was a guy who had never taken a snap in a college game. After showing growth and promise and actually taking over the position, he was lost for the remainder of the season, leaving us back to the limited, inconsistent guy.

The returning starter argument was a false narrative for those who were either unrealistic or pissed off about the firing of KW. Those folks were determined from the first game onward of making Tom Allen a scapegoat (or blaming Glass for hiring him).

The fact that players did not jump ship when KW was replaced by TA or rush to protest (or even speak out on) the unfair dismissal of their previous coach speaks volumes about both men. Kevin Wilson at his best would not have won 6 games last year under the same circumstances Tom Allen faced. My opinion is that IU likely would have won 4 and perhaps only 3 under Wilson.

For my money, last year was a step forward and the big picture is a program in better shape now than at any time in the last 7 years. Wilson changed the work ethic and improved recruiting. He deserves credit for that. But in my opinion he was a lousy sideline coach on gameday and his personality was always going to be a barrier to sustained success. We are in better hands and our recruiting this past season (despite not making a bowl) strongly suggests as much.

 

[Bowlmania]

The "16 returning starter" argument is beyond stupid. For starters, the most important position group on a football team is the OL. When that group is decimated by graduation and injuries, success is going to be difficult no matter if everybody else is back.

Add to that the number of those 16 returners who were out all or most of the year with injuries, what we had returning (and able to actually contribute) was no more than any of our opponents. We had essentially no advantage.

Furthermore, one of those 16 was a quarterback with an extremely limited skill set who never performed consistently enough to be a difference maker. Our other option there was a guy who had never taken a snap in a college game. After showing growth and promise and actually taking over the position, he was lost for the remainder of the season, leaving us back to the limited, inconsistent guy.

The returning starter argument was a false narrative for those who were either unrealistic or pissed off about the firing of KW. Those folks were determined from the first game onward of making Tom Allen a scapegoat (or blaming Glass for hiring him).

The fact that players did not jump ship when KW was replaced by TA or rush to protest (or even speak out on) the unfair dismissal of their previous coach speaks volumes about both men. Kevin Wilson at his best would not have won 6 games last year under the same circumstances Tom Allen faced. My opinion is that IU likely would have won 4 and perhaps only 3 under Wilson.

For my money, last year was a step forward and the big picture is a program in better shape now than at any time in the last 7 years. Wilson changed the work ethic and improved recruiting. He deserves credit for that. But in my opinion he was a lousy sideline coach on gameday and his personality was always going to be a barrier to sustained success. We are in better hands and our recruiting this past season (despite not making a bowl) strongly suggests as much.

Well said. The usual suspects will reappear in an effort to throw cold water on your optimism, but your argument is factually correct, logical, and difficult to refute.

 

[crossfire74]

Not sure which post you're quoting "huge"from, but it wasn't the same. Like it or not, that one game difference kept them out of a bowl game and stymied momentum, which likely had a negative impact on recruiting. It remains to be seen if those 15 practices that IU missed in December will negatively impact a team that needs all the development time it can get. But laying an egg against both Maryland and Purdue, with any extremely experienced team, cost them dearly.

It didn't styme any momentum. If it did, our recruiting class would have sucked and it was the best one we've had in a couple decades.

 

[snarlcakes]

The schedule should be easier than last years, but the team will be less experienced. Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State will be losses and I think IU will be 5-4 against the rest of the schedule to finish the season 5-7.

 

[iubud]

Here we are again at Spring practice. Last season at this time, people were very excited and concerned about the coaching change. Many thought we'd tank...others thought we were headed for the Rose Bowl. Now, a year later some are saying the next season will be 10 wins, others that Coach needs firing.

After all of this, I'm curious, as I'm sure others are, just where the mindset lies today. Like all of life, its a Bell Curve...but where are the peaks and where the valleys. What do you think of the coming season? Dig deep...don't be superficial. Think about it...where are we? What is the actual level of talent at IU right now compared to the rest of the B10? Don't be gloomy or rosey...where are we really? What do you except for the 2018 season right now?

All thoughtful comments appreciated...tell us what you really think! Thanks...

I was talking to a successful high school football coach yesterday. He feels very positive about this season. I asked what he thought about DeBord. I told the coach that I thought his offiense was too predictable. The coach said he likes to call plays that build up to something. He gave the example of getting the defense to move a little to set up a big play.

I told him that I thought the play calling was designed to not give Lagow too much to think about and allowed Ramsey his best chance for success. If true, I would expect to see a more aggressive game plan this year,

 

[Courtsensetwo]

It didn't styme any momentum. If it did, our recruiting class would have sucked and it was the best one we've had in a couple decades.

The program took a step back in the binary sense that it did not make a bowl as it had the previous year. That, of cousre is a very shallow way to evaluate the situation but it will be the best some can do.

You are correct that recruiting stayed on track despite the coaching change to an unproven HC, which is a credit to the staff and good news. More work to be done and there is no guarantee that CTA will be successful, but the key vital signs were good.

 

[Indianaftw]

Great question!
So I looked.

First, I was SHOCKED at how many times we threw on 3rd down - 159 out of 211 (if I counted right).

If I counted right, Ramsey threw 72 times on 3rd down.
He made it 25 times.
That's 35%.
He threw 29 incomplete and 2 INT's.
16 completions came up short of the first.


If I counted right, Lagow threw 87 times on 3rd.
He made it 29 times.
That's 33%.
He threw 28 incomplete, 4 INT's.
26 completions came up short.

Overall, we were 80 for 211 (38%) on 3rd down.
Our opponents were 55 for 184 (30%)

We were 5th in the league:

Wisconsin 48.6
Penn State 48.0
Ohio State 46.5
Michigan State 44.9
Indiana 37.9

The problem I had was always throwing underneath on 3rd. It was rare when you watched a game and we threw past the sticks on 3rd down. IDK if that was drawn up or just taking what was given but it was noticeable.

Peyton was 109th out of 110 QB's in Passing Yards per completion