Hey folks, so this is a content item planned for the day after every game. It's basically my version of a traditional column, but instead worded in a message board post, as a mixture of my postgame thoughts and some advanced stats.
We look at pace, offensive and defensive efficiency, and "Identity Stats" - three statistics that seem to be important for Indiana's success.
....
Pace: 72 possessions. This is fairly uptempo, would rank around the top 50 nationally on average.
Archie's teams did not play particularly fast or slow at Dayton, so, it's unclear what tempo they're going for at this time. I should note his last two Dayton teams - 2015-16 and 2016-17 - finished in the top 100 nationally in offensive pace, so, perhaps he wants to play fairly uptempo.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions):
Indiana State -- 125
Indiana -- 96
Yikes. Allowing 1.25 points per possession to Indiana State is not how the Archie Miller era wanted to start.
For context, his last three Dayton teams averaged between 0.96 ppp allowed (43rd nationally) to 0.94 ppp allowed (15th nationally).
So basically, you know how bad IU's offense looked last night? That's the kind of efficiency Archie Miller defenses usually hold teams to.
Let's get this out of the way: There are no excuses to lose like that to Indiana State. Now, I've pounded the table that coaching transitions can take time, and in hindsight, this is a team that lost Thomas Bryant, OG Anunoby and James Blackmon.
But there's still just no reason to lose like that to Indiana State at home. Not in that fashion.
It was a bizarre atmosphere from the start. There were plenty of seats available. The crowd wasn't even really into the intros or anything.
Then Indiana State came out firing. And IU had just no fight back.
In fact, IU really never got any momentum all game. I mean, you'd at least think at some point, they'd string together a run.
It never came. IU never got a real good offensive run, and they never really shut down Indiana State either.
The Sycamores finished 17-of-26 from threes. They were locked in. Many of their tries were left open, they were perfectly squared up, and it looked good coming out of their hands.
A few of their makes were lucky heaves. Sometimes it's just not your night.
But "sometimes it's just not your night" can't justify losing by 21 at home to Indiana State. Not in that fashion, where it never seemed like IU was even in the game. Or TRIED to get in the game.
...
Having said all that - last night does not change my longterm Archie Miller outlook one bit.
In my spare time I trade stocks and there's an analogy in that.
A large majority of people who try to trade stocks lose money. Why? They get too emotional. When a stock price is going down, they get scared or frustrated, and sell it.
That's the exact opposite of what you're supposed to do. You're supposed to buy low, then sell high.
Let's look at Apple. We all know what Apple is.
Apple is a terrific company. You don't have to know stocks or fancy numbers to know the success of the iPhone and other products.
I drew two red arrows on this chart.
The down red arrow signaled a short-term top. Average Joe buys there, because they see a stock going up and up all year and want to make that "easy" money.
After that down red arrow I drew, news started coming out that maybe the iPhone 8 wasn't going to do that great. Maybe the iPhone "X" was too expensive and no one would buy it either.
People start selling the stock. It goes down and down for several days, all the way down to the spot where I drew the red up arrow.
Average Joe sells for a loss at the red up arrow. They've seen their investment go down and down, and they can't take it anymore, so they get out.
In reality, that was the best time to buy.
As we all know, the iPhone still dominates. It always does - this isn't that hard. So the stock recovered, of course, and as you can see it went on to reach a new high.
...
The analogy is this: Archie Miller's resume is proven. He's Apple. We know he's a great coach like we know Apple is a great company.
People who have done their homework on him agree. He was named arguably the top hire in all of college basketball last season. Coincidentally, his competition for that accolade was Brad Underwood, who is also struggling in his start at Illinois and they even also lost to Indiana State in a closed scrimmage (Back to the beginning: coaching transitions can take time.)
Archie made the NCAA tournament at Dayton - with A-10 talent - one season when they were down to six scholarship players, and they even won a game in it. IU loses OG Anunoby last year and it was like the world fell apart and it was impossible to recover.
Archie made an Elite Eight another season and beat all higher seeds along the way. That run was no fluke.
So IU's defense got pummeled last night. No doubt.
Eventually, though, Archie will get it turned around. He's proven he can do it.
This season could get rough. We don't know that, because it's just one game - but it could. I don't know X's and O's that well, but Archie is polar opposite of Crean off the court. I can imagine a lot of that carries onto the court too.
It's going to take time for players to get used to that. It's like when a boss takes over at your company and does things totally differently than the previous boss. There's some confusion at the start; it takes time to adjust.
So even if IU does keep struggling, it won't change my mind at all. I'll "buy the dip" on the Archie Miller chart, not sell my stock.
When you get frustrated this season - as we all might, if there are more performances like last night - remember the Apple chart
People have every right to be frustrated with last night's game. It was awful. But, just remember the longterm picture is still in-tact.
...
Now, onto the final numbers. I haven't firmly decided on our identity stats for Archie, but these are the three I'm going to start with.
Indiana Identity Stats:
1) Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage (like regular FG%, but gives 50 percent more credit to three pointers): 76.5 percent. I can't tell you how bad this is.
Last year's Crean team did not allow any opponent to shoot that well once.
I actually went through Archie's entire history at Dayton. None of his teams over six years allowed a team to shoot that well.
There's no doubt some of this was bad defense. Some of this, though, is Indiana State was just ridiculously locked in. Historically locked in.
2) Turnover Rate (turnovers/possessions): 26.4 percent. Archie has said he values ball control, and his teams were great with that in the first two exhibitions.
They were the opposite of great against Indiana State. The worst team in Division 1 last season was Arkansas Pine Bluff with a 25.9 percent average.
IU's season average last year - and we all know how frustrated we got with ball control - was 21.4 percent, ranking 322nd nationally.
So yeah. Another raging "X" here.
3) Offensive Rebounding Rate Allowed (how well you protected the defensive glass): 22.7 percent. I'm using this one because (I think) a product of the pack line defense is supposed to be cleaning up the defensive glass.
This is actually pretty good. Allowing a team to collect just 23 percent of available offensive rebounds would rank in the top 5 nationally.
Indiana State grabbed just five offensive rebounds in 27 chances (IU collected 22 defensive rebounds).
Summary/Looking Ahead:
So in two identity stats IU got absolutely destroyed, and you see the result. A historically bad shooting performance allowed for an Archie Miller coached team, and the turnover rate would rank as the worst team in the country if averaged out over a season.
We might be in for a long year.
In hindsight, it's not totally shocking if that does come to fruition. Coaching transitions take time - especially in case like this where so much is changed/different - and this team lost a ton of talent from last year.
Still, it's just one game. Quick turnaround to Howard on Sunday.
We'll see if the Hoosiers learn to bounce back.
We look at pace, offensive and defensive efficiency, and "Identity Stats" - three statistics that seem to be important for Indiana's success.
....
Pace: 72 possessions. This is fairly uptempo, would rank around the top 50 nationally on average.
Archie's teams did not play particularly fast or slow at Dayton, so, it's unclear what tempo they're going for at this time. I should note his last two Dayton teams - 2015-16 and 2016-17 - finished in the top 100 nationally in offensive pace, so, perhaps he wants to play fairly uptempo.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions):
Indiana State -- 125
Indiana -- 96
Yikes. Allowing 1.25 points per possession to Indiana State is not how the Archie Miller era wanted to start.
For context, his last three Dayton teams averaged between 0.96 ppp allowed (43rd nationally) to 0.94 ppp allowed (15th nationally).
So basically, you know how bad IU's offense looked last night? That's the kind of efficiency Archie Miller defenses usually hold teams to.
Let's get this out of the way: There are no excuses to lose like that to Indiana State. Now, I've pounded the table that coaching transitions can take time, and in hindsight, this is a team that lost Thomas Bryant, OG Anunoby and James Blackmon.
But there's still just no reason to lose like that to Indiana State at home. Not in that fashion.
It was a bizarre atmosphere from the start. There were plenty of seats available. The crowd wasn't even really into the intros or anything.
Then Indiana State came out firing. And IU had just no fight back.
In fact, IU really never got any momentum all game. I mean, you'd at least think at some point, they'd string together a run.
It never came. IU never got a real good offensive run, and they never really shut down Indiana State either.
The Sycamores finished 17-of-26 from threes. They were locked in. Many of their tries were left open, they were perfectly squared up, and it looked good coming out of their hands.
A few of their makes were lucky heaves. Sometimes it's just not your night.
But "sometimes it's just not your night" can't justify losing by 21 at home to Indiana State. Not in that fashion, where it never seemed like IU was even in the game. Or TRIED to get in the game.
...
Having said all that - last night does not change my longterm Archie Miller outlook one bit.
In my spare time I trade stocks and there's an analogy in that.
A large majority of people who try to trade stocks lose money. Why? They get too emotional. When a stock price is going down, they get scared or frustrated, and sell it.
That's the exact opposite of what you're supposed to do. You're supposed to buy low, then sell high.
Let's look at Apple. We all know what Apple is.
Apple is a terrific company. You don't have to know stocks or fancy numbers to know the success of the iPhone and other products.
I drew two red arrows on this chart.
The down red arrow signaled a short-term top. Average Joe buys there, because they see a stock going up and up all year and want to make that "easy" money.
After that down red arrow I drew, news started coming out that maybe the iPhone 8 wasn't going to do that great. Maybe the iPhone "X" was too expensive and no one would buy it either.
People start selling the stock. It goes down and down for several days, all the way down to the spot where I drew the red up arrow.
Average Joe sells for a loss at the red up arrow. They've seen their investment go down and down, and they can't take it anymore, so they get out.
In reality, that was the best time to buy.
As we all know, the iPhone still dominates. It always does - this isn't that hard. So the stock recovered, of course, and as you can see it went on to reach a new high.
...
The analogy is this: Archie Miller's resume is proven. He's Apple. We know he's a great coach like we know Apple is a great company.
People who have done their homework on him agree. He was named arguably the top hire in all of college basketball last season. Coincidentally, his competition for that accolade was Brad Underwood, who is also struggling in his start at Illinois and they even also lost to Indiana State in a closed scrimmage (Back to the beginning: coaching transitions can take time.)
Archie made the NCAA tournament at Dayton - with A-10 talent - one season when they were down to six scholarship players, and they even won a game in it. IU loses OG Anunoby last year and it was like the world fell apart and it was impossible to recover.
Archie made an Elite Eight another season and beat all higher seeds along the way. That run was no fluke.
So IU's defense got pummeled last night. No doubt.
Eventually, though, Archie will get it turned around. He's proven he can do it.
This season could get rough. We don't know that, because it's just one game - but it could. I don't know X's and O's that well, but Archie is polar opposite of Crean off the court. I can imagine a lot of that carries onto the court too.
It's going to take time for players to get used to that. It's like when a boss takes over at your company and does things totally differently than the previous boss. There's some confusion at the start; it takes time to adjust.
So even if IU does keep struggling, it won't change my mind at all. I'll "buy the dip" on the Archie Miller chart, not sell my stock.
When you get frustrated this season - as we all might, if there are more performances like last night - remember the Apple chart
People have every right to be frustrated with last night's game. It was awful. But, just remember the longterm picture is still in-tact.
...
Now, onto the final numbers. I haven't firmly decided on our identity stats for Archie, but these are the three I'm going to start with.
Indiana Identity Stats:
1) Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage (like regular FG%, but gives 50 percent more credit to three pointers): 76.5 percent. I can't tell you how bad this is.
Last year's Crean team did not allow any opponent to shoot that well once.
I actually went through Archie's entire history at Dayton. None of his teams over six years allowed a team to shoot that well.
There's no doubt some of this was bad defense. Some of this, though, is Indiana State was just ridiculously locked in. Historically locked in.
2) Turnover Rate (turnovers/possessions): 26.4 percent. Archie has said he values ball control, and his teams were great with that in the first two exhibitions.
They were the opposite of great against Indiana State. The worst team in Division 1 last season was Arkansas Pine Bluff with a 25.9 percent average.
IU's season average last year - and we all know how frustrated we got with ball control - was 21.4 percent, ranking 322nd nationally.
So yeah. Another raging "X" here.
3) Offensive Rebounding Rate Allowed (how well you protected the defensive glass): 22.7 percent. I'm using this one because (I think) a product of the pack line defense is supposed to be cleaning up the defensive glass.
This is actually pretty good. Allowing a team to collect just 23 percent of available offensive rebounds would rank in the top 5 nationally.
Indiana State grabbed just five offensive rebounds in 27 chances (IU collected 22 defensive rebounds).
Summary/Looking Ahead:
So in two identity stats IU got absolutely destroyed, and you see the result. A historically bad shooting performance allowed for an Archie Miller coached team, and the turnover rate would rank as the worst team in the country if averaged out over a season.
We might be in for a long year.
In hindsight, it's not totally shocking if that does come to fruition. Coaching transitions take time - especially in case like this where so much is changed/different - and this team lost a ton of talent from last year.
Still, it's just one game. Quick turnaround to Howard on Sunday.
We'll see if the Hoosiers learn to bounce back.
