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Economy Concern

There's not a lot manufactured in America that doesn't have foreign made parts. That includes every car manufactured in American - not a single one, including the F-150 Ford truck that doesn't have foreign made parts. I think Telas have the fewest foreign-made parts of American automakers. If he implements the tariffs as he claims he will, we're all going to pay higher prices for a lot of "American made" products.

Congress needs to take control of tariffs back from the President.

Congress needs to be the Congress which the Founders intended it to be.

A co-equal branch with representaives willing to stand up to presidents even if they are of the same party.
 
Congress needs to be the Congress which the Founders intended it to be.

A co-equal branch with representaives willing to stand up to presidents even if they are of the same party.

Believe it or not, in today's world my post above would result in many thinking we tried what the Founders wanted and it didn't work.

In addition there are folks calling for Congessional term limits while removing term limits for a president.

Wow!!!
 
Congress needs to take control of tariffs back from the President.

They could certainly do that. But will they? I know at least one bill has been put forth regarding Canada.

There's a couple big problems with that. Obviously, Trump would veto it. So it would need a bit more than half of the Republicans to vote for it (assuming all Dems would, which they probably would) to override a veto. Also, House rules give the speaker a great deal of power on what does and doesn't get a vote.

So there would have to be a lot of determination on the part of Congressional Republicans. And, while I'd bet that a healthy majority of them oppose this stupid policy, few of them seem willing to take Trump on with anything.

But that could change once this starts causing problems that are real, rather than just abstract.
 
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NYC is a dump
Totally off topic, but I watched the Yankes Dodgers Uncivil War documentary on a flight recently. I'd forgotten what kind of a shithole NYC was back in the 70s. Riots, blackout, Son of Sam, just one thing after another that was brought up. Some of the pans within the city that showed all the trash and crumbling buildings were reminiscent of third world countries.
 
Grain of salt - I am not a trained economist.

But I have always believed that "consumer confidence" was THE ONE THING that mattered. As long as folks were earning/borrowing and buying/spending, things would be alright.

But the tariffs ... on the heels of Biden printing money/inflation .. have now apparently slowed spending by Bubba the buyer. "The common folk" are getting worried and hunkering down.

You economy experts - riddle me this:

How long will this downturn last?

Will the market "correct" more than 20%?

I'll hang up and worry.
1-2 Years

Yes
 
One way to virtually guarantee Trump can be credited with a "recovery" is to burn the entire thing to the ground. And to do it as soon as possible so he can more easily blame others for it. Won't be anywhere else to go, but "up", here soon...I suppose.
Some of you post is actually accurate.
 
They could certainly do that. But will they? I know at least one bill has been put forth regarding Canada.

There's a couple big problems with that. Obviously, Trump would veto it. So it would need a bit more than half of the Republicans to vote for it (assuming all Dems would, which they probably would) to override a veto. Also, House rules give the speaker a great deal of power on what does and doesn't get a vote.

So there would have to be a lot of determination on the part of Congressional Republicans. And, while I'd bet that a healthy majority of them oppose this stupid policy, few of them seem willing to take Trump on with anything.

But that could change once this starts causing problems that are real, rather than just abstract.
wonder what seats are up for re-election in a couple years and how likely the house is to flip. Maybe taking back tariffs becomes more of a possibility. Seems like the opposite party usually gets a boost.
 
You get your econ degree from Trump U?

Wikipedia. LMAO

Stop being stupid

tax /tăks/

noun​

  1. A contribution for the support of a government required of persons, groups, or businesses within the domain of that government.
  2. A fee or dues levied on the members of an organization to meet its expenses.
  3. A burdensome or excessive demand; a strain.
 
Twenty you want a 911 real bad. That’s what you want. It’s $125k. You don’t give a shit if an M3 is $70k or $80k. You want a 911. That’s all you want. New one comes out 20 percent higher. Now it’s $150k. And that’s just too much. Can’t afford it. Can’t justify it. Going to have to settle for the M3. Whether the m3 is $70 or $80k makes no difference. It never made a difference. All that matters is the affordability of the 911
Master class in Marketing by mcmurtry
 
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We’re a bargain brand with a product that is equal to the premium brand. And in some ways better. But name recognition is everything. And we ain’t it
Like Kroger brand can of corn 30 cents cheaper than a Green Giant can.

The bargain hunters go for the Kroger brand, but most shoppers, including me, grab the national brand because, well, it's a national brand.

Now the price of the Green Giant can goes up and the difference is $1. $2.39 vs $1.39. I see that and suddenly I'm' interested in the Kroger brand.
 
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wonder what seats are up for re-election in a couple years and how likely the house is to flip. Maybe taking back tariffs becomes more of a possibility. Seems like the opposite party usually gets a boost.
Oh, no doubt about it. The Republicans' majority is razor-thin as it is. And out-of-power parties almost always win more seats in mid-terms, even when things are going well enough. There's even a term for it: thermostatic. As in, a thermostat that voters keep adjusting up or down.

I'd be stunned if the House didn't flip next year. I'd say it's a 95% chance it will. The Senate map nominally favors Republicans. But I think there's a pretty good chance it will flip, too.

FTR, I think most of the protests we've been seeing at town halls recently have been astroturf. They've been calling on our Congressman here to have one and he would only do a virtual town hall. And I don't really blame him. I recognized a few of the people who protested outside his office -- and they're activist Democrats. They're wanting the viral videos and news coverage of the pol being badgered.

However, I think there's a pretty good chance these tariffs could turn into genuine grassroots unrest. One of the big reasons Trump was elected was inflation (even if the rate had dropped well below its 2022 highs). And here he is taking action that will raise many prices even more?

Well, Trump doesn't have to face voters again (?). But every House member that wants to continue being a House member does. And a third of Senators do every 2 years. So....Trump may not care if automakers raise prices on cars, but you can bet that nobody in Congress shares that insane view.
 
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Oh, no doubt about it. The Republicans' majority is razor-thin as it is. And out-of-power parties almost always win more seats in mid-terms, even when things are going well enough. There's even a term for it: thermostatic. As in, a thermostat that voters keep adjusting up or down.

I'd be stunned if the House didn't flip next year. I'd say it's a 95% chance it will. The Senate map nominally favors Republicans. But I think there's a pretty good chance it will flip, too.

FTR, I think most of the protests we've been seeing at town halls recently have been astroturf. They've been calling on our Congressman here to have one and he would only do a virtual town hall. And I don't really blame him. I recognized a few of the people who protested outside his office -- and they're activist Democrats. They're wanting the viral videos and news coverage of the pol being badgered.

However, I think there's a pretty good chance these tariffs could turn into genuine grassroots unrest. One of the big reasons Trump was elected was inflation (even if the rate had dropped well below its 2022 highs). And here he is taking action that will raise many prices even more?

Well, Trump doesn't have to face voters again (?). But every House member that wants to continue being a House member does. And a third of Senators do every 2 years. So....Trump may not care if automakers raise prices on cars, but you can bet that nobody in Congress shares that insane view.

I think you're underestimating Trump's sway with voters or at least the sway republicans in congress/senate see him as having.

Not wanting Trump to primary them is what saved Trump from being impeached in the senate. It's also what had republicans back to swearing their loyalty to him just days after Jan 6. Trump can take a lot people down with him if they don't toe the line.
 
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What’s Indiana beach?
Amusement park on Lake Schaeffer in Monticello.

Gets a lot of business from the Chicago area. In the 60s, used to bring in acts like Jimi Hendryx, The Who, Janice Joplin, etc.

Not real fancy, but great for kids who just want to do rides and eat junk food.
 
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I think you're underestimating Trump's sway with voters or at least the sway republicans in congress/senate see him as having.

Not wanting Trump to primary them is what saved Trump from being impeached in the senate. It's also what had republicans back to swearing their loyalty to him just days after Jan 6. Trump can take a lot people down with him if they don't toe the line.

Trump has a lot of sway over Republican primary voters. That much is clearly true. And it does matter, a lot.

His sway over voters at large, though, is not nearly as strong. Downballot Republicans got trounced in 2018 -- and didn't fare all that well in 2020 or 2022 (or even in 2024, really...they were helped by Dem weakness).

He seems to be pretty good at getting people to vote for him against mediocre candidates. But, when it comes to others, not so much. Well, assuming the "3rd term" thing doesn't happen (and I doubt it will), he's never facing voters again.

But I'm not even thinking much about next November. I'm thinking about the next 4 or 5 months. That may or may not effect next November. But it doesn't have to.

Price hikes due to tariffs aren't true inflation. But consumers don't give a crap whether it is or not. Higher prices, whether from classic inflation or something else, are absolute poison for politicians. That was true for Nixon, it was true for Ford, it was true for Carter, it was true for Biden. And it might have even been true for Bush 41, too.
 
Oh, no doubt about it. The Republicans' majority is razor-thin as it is. And out-of-power parties almost always win more seats in mid-terms, even when things are going well enough. There's even a term for it: thermostatic. As in, a thermostat that voters keep adjusting up or down.

I'd be stunned if the House didn't flip next year. I'd say it's a 95% chance it will. The Senate map nominally favors Republicans. But I think there's a pretty good chance it will flip, too.

FTR, I think most of the protests we've been seeing at town halls recently have been astroturf. They've been calling on our Congressman here to have one and he would only do a virtual town hall. And I don't really blame him. I recognized a few of the people who protested outside his office -- and they're activist Democrats. They're wanting the viral videos and news coverage of the pol being badgered.

However, I think there's a pretty good chance these tariffs could turn into genuine grassroots unrest. One of the big reasons Trump was elected was inflation (even if the rate had dropped well below its 2022 highs). And here he is taking action that will raise many prices even more?

Well, Trump doesn't have to face voters again (?). But every House member that wants to continue being a House member does. And a third of Senators do every 2 years. So....Trump may not care if automakers raise prices on cars, but you can bet that nobody in Congress shares that insane view.
They better be ending income taxes for people making less than 150k or Trump will end up being the most fiscally responsible President of my life time and universally hated.
 
They better be ending income taxes for people making less than 150k or Trump will end up being the most fiscally responsible President of my life time and universally hated.
Heh.

Look, I'm all in on as much government they can possibly get cut. I don't think the way they're going about it is great. But I also don't think Congress has the wherewithal to do it the right way. So....cut away. And if that makes him universally unpopular, fine with me. I've long said we'll probably need a political martyr as president to fix the problems that are plaguing us. So...maybe he'll be it.

And I'm also basically resigned to the likelihood that taxes for the next 40 years are very likely to be higher than they were the last 40 years. But these tariffs aren't a wise way to raise taxes. And they sure as hell aren't paid by foreign companies.
 
Trump has a lot of sway over Republican primary voters. That much is clearly true. And it does matter, a lot.

His sway over voters at large, though, is not nearly as strong. Downballot Republicans got trounced in 2018 -- and didn't fare all that well in 2020 or 2022 (or even in 2024, really...they were helped by Dem weakness).

He seems to be pretty good at getting people to vote for him against mediocre candidates. But, when it comes to others, not so much. Well, assuming the "3rd term" thing doesn't happen (and I doubt it will), he's never facing voters again.

But I'm not even thinking much about next November. I'm thinking about the next 4 or 5 months. That may or may not effect next November. But it doesn't have to.

Price hikes due to tariffs aren't true inflation. But consumers don't give a crap whether it is or not. Higher prices, whether from classic inflation or something else, are absolute poison for politicians. That was true for Nixon, it was true for Ford, it was true for Carter, it was true for Biden. And it might have even been true for Bush 41, too.
Don't really need sway over voters at large to primary someone, which is what Trump can hold over the rest of the party unfortunately
 
Don't really need sway over voters at large to primary someone, which is what Trump can hold over the rest of the party unfortunately

I get that. Congressional Republicans are between a rock and a hard place when it comes to dealing with Bad Trump.

I'm sure they relish the idea of defending his immigration policies and enforcement. Maybe even his positions on Russia and Ukraine -- although that doesn't seem to be going the way he apparently thought it would.

But their choices here are sit back and let the tariffs ravage consumers/voters and try to straddle that fence...or face the wrath of Trump by standing up and blocking him.

If I'm one of them, I'm doing the latter. And, for me, it wouldn't have anything to do with who I'm pissing off. It's just that there's never a good reason to support or even just allow such obviously bad policy.
 
Heh.

Look, I'm all in on as much government they can possibly get cut. I don't think the way they're going about it is great. But I also don't think Congress has the wherewithal to do it the right way. So....cut away. And if that makes him universally unpopular, fine with me. I've long said we'll probably need a political martyr as president to fix the problems that are plaguing us. So...maybe he'll be it.

And I'm also basically resigned to the likelihood that taxes for the next 40 years are very likely to be higher than they were the last 40 years. But these tariffs aren't a wise way to raise taxes. And they sure as hell aren't paid by foreign companies.
I actually prefer raising revenues through tariffs than raising my taxes, but I don't want either of them 😁 He better be putting together a big beautiful tax cut bill.
 
I actually prefer raising revenues through tariffs than raising my taxes, but I don't want either of them 😁 He better be putting together a big beautiful tax cut bill.
His tax bill will largely just be keeping the current code.

Dems are calling it a tax cut because current law has most of the 2017 cuts reverting to the status quo ante.
 
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Heh.

Look, I'm all in on as much government they can possibly get cut. I don't think the way they're going about it is great. But I also don't think Congress has the wherewithal to do it the right way. So....cut away. And if that makes him universally unpopular, fine with me. I've long said we'll probably need a political martyr as president to fix the problems that are plaguing us. So...maybe he'll be it.

And I'm also basically resigned to the likelihood that taxes for the next 40 years are very likely to be higher than they were the last 40 years. But these tariffs aren't a wise way to raise taxes. And they sure as hell aren't paid by foreign companies.
Assist

Tariffs are paid by importers, which are typically businesses that bring goods into a country. These companies pay the tariff to the government at customs when the goods enter the country, and they may pass the cost on to consumers through higher prices.
PBS taxfoundation.org
 
Im glad I went the Roth route a while ago. I don't want to think about the tax bite on withdrawals/MRDs from my pretax stuff.
You'll be very glad you did.

Roth's were just getting started after I'd been putting in money into 401k and my accountant wife wanted the tax deduction THEN. NOW, she's bitching about paying so much tax on those now-IRA withdrawals.

Pay me now or pay me later, I guess. I've also seen other estimates that tax savings over time is a better deal.

But I think you're smart to do it, not having a clue about tax rates in the future.
 
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