DBM WE'RE COOKED 7 SWING STATE SWEEP NATE SILVER

[Ohio Guy]

then identify the point. let's hear it in your own words.

Sigh - I’m not going to regurgitate what you and goat wrote above. I agree with goat there are some unknowable numbers you’re trying to base your argument on, but that wasn’t the point I was trying to make.

MY point in replying to you initially was that you quoted incorrect numbers of migrant murderers and total number of homicides. Those numbers were important to the point you were making in the post I initially replied to. That in and of itself isn’t a big deal. We all make mistakes and it takes a big person to acknowledge it and move on.

Sorry I tapped into some deep seated insecurities you have by calling you out. If it makes you feel better, just take some deep breathes and forget that I proved you wrong.

 

[UncleMark]

Regardless. Nondetained isn’t just criminals. There’s like 7 million on it. I think 400k convicts 225k pending crim. Ish. That said I don’t believe reporting from other countries to be totally accurate

You think it's possible those murderers and rapists aren't all murderers and rapists?

 

[mcmurtry66]

Oh, well in that case, obviously Biden's policies have had an effect on the size of that list. I don't think that's nearly as scary, though, as what it's portrayed as. The vast majority of those people shouldn't be detained. If they are law-abiding individuals who cross the border and then apply for asylum, why waste resources locking them up, especially if they are resources we might not necessarily have?

Eh. Agreed on the scary as it relates to Biden. But still scary. 13,000 is a big number. Add rapists etc. and honestly of 4 million how do we truly know. Don’t double the docket. Maintain remain in Mexico etc.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Sigh - I’m not going to regurgitate what you and goat wrote above. I agree with goat there are some unknowable numbers you’re trying to base your argument on, but that wasn’t the point I was trying to make.

MY point in replying to you initially was that you quoted incorrect numbers of migrant murderers and total number of homicides. Those numbers were important to the point you were making in the post I initially replied to. That in and of itself isn’t a big deal. We all make mistakes and it takes a big person to acknowledge it and move on.

Sorry I tapped into some deep seated insecurities you have by calling you out. If it makes you feel better, just take some deep breathes and forget that I proved you wrong.

The number was off. Still ballpark for this year as we are around 13k. You implied that I thought all of the murders committed for the year were by immigrants. Incredibly stupid - you.

 

[Ohio Guy]

The point is that Biden/Harris exacerbated a bad situation with moronic immigration policies. Trump was on the right path and they shit on it

There are nuggets of common ground we have here. I do think the current administration could have done better on immigration and there needs to be some changes made to immigration policy. I don’t think Trump is the answer you think he is. The challenges of his mass deportation plan aside, I don’t think that would be a net positive for the country. That’s winging the pendulum way too far to one side.

 

[Ohio Guy]

The number was off. Still ballpark for this year as we are around 13k. You implied that I thought all of the murders committed for the year were by immigrants. Incredibly stupid - you.

I never implied that. Prove it MFer.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Eh. Agreed on the scary as it relates to Biden. But still scary. 13,000 is a big number. Add rapists etc. and honestly of 4 million how do we truly know. Don’t double the docket. Maintain remain in Mexico etc.

But my point all long still stands: the 13,000 is the number you can't connect to Biden. The 7 million? Absolutely can connect that to Biden. But not the 13,000. Or, at least if you can, you haven't yet.

 

[mcmurtry66]

You think it's possible those murderers and rapists aren't all murderers and rapists?

Yeah that could be too. I don’t think that’s a risk we want - letting people roam etc. But who knows what judicial process they went through in their own country.

Conversely how many rapists and murderers slipped through without being caught, convicted etc

 

[mcmurtry66]

But my point all long still stands: the 13,000 is the number you can't connect to Biden. The 7 million? Absolutely can connect that to Biden. But not the 13,000. Or, at least if you can, you haven't yet.

The 13,000 absolute does not belong to Biden. Some percentage thereof

 

[UncleMark]

Yeah that could be too. I don’t think that’s a risk we want - letting people roam etc. But who knows what judicial process they went through in their own country.

Conversely how many rapists and murderers slipped through without being caught, convicted etc

So it's all bullshit then.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I never implied that. Prove it MFer.

Breathe out. At the beginning of this argument

 

[mcmurtry66]

So it's all bullshit then.

Not in the least. Go to the other thread. Crazed linked the report from ice. The non confined docket doubled. 600k convicts/pending with every category of crime. When you have that reality you don’t open the border. It’s negligent. You boot people

 

[Ohio Guy]

Breathe out. At the beginning of this argument

No. Prove it. You can’t just say I said something I didn’t say and shrug it off when called out for being wrong about it.

 

[mcmurtry66]

No. Prove it. You can’t just say I said something I didn’t say and shrug it off when called out for being wrong about it.

According this article murder rates in the US dropped from 2022 to 2023 (from 21,156 in 2022 to around 18,450 in 2023).

And I found it hard to believe that 13,000 of the 18,450 murders in 2023 were committed by immigrants so I looked it up. This article clarifies the 13,000 number you referenced (bold and italics added by me):

More than 13,000 immigrants convicted of homicide — either in the United States or abroad — are living outside of Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention, according to data ICE provided to Congress earlier this week.


I'm not saying that's not a bad thing, but it's a lot different than saying immigrants committed 13,000 murders in 2023. It also said that that 13,000 number spans at least two previous presidential administrations - including your boy Trump's.

“I find it hard to believe 13k of 18k in 23 were committed by immigrants”

And I think you edited bc I wrote there were 13k murders in 23

 

[ribbont]

The corrupt crooked vile Dems have an October surprise!!!!!

Trump covered in baby oil at a Diddy freak off!!!!!!

And Kamala there freaking with the orange man! Please let there be a real video of that!

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

No, you're slightly misunderstanding how his type of modeling works. He runs simulations based on the current state of the polls, and states tend to shift in groups, so it's much more likely for PA and MI to both shift slightly red (or blue) than it is for one to shift in one direction, and the other in the opposite direction. All he's saying is that right now, when he runs the model, in 40% of the cases, these particular seven states shift enough to end up on the same side. I'm saying this isn't all that surprising, because they are so close right now, it doesn't take much to make that happen. You flip enough coins, and you'll get long streaks of if heads. Nothing mystical about it.

But, how is that realistic or important, if I am being frank? If the concept is that some shift affects all states in a similar manner, there is a fundamental flaw with the model. Even if purposeful, the usefulness should be dramatically lower.

My basic point is that things that alter or move the needle in Michigan are not necessarily going to do so in Georgia, so I find the entire logic behind the system of analysis to be erroneous.

But, I could be missing something? Or I'm just too dense to understand the point of it all.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

But, how is that realistic or important, if I am being frank? If the concept is that some shift affects all states in a similar manner, there is a fundamental flaw with the model. Even if purposeful, the usefulness should be dramatically lower.

My basic point is that things that alter or move the needle in Michigan are not necessarily going to do so in Georgia, so I find the entire logic behind the system of analysis to be erroneous.

But, I could be missing something? Or I'm just too dense to understand the point of it all.

His model has methods of treating some states as more similar than others, but I'm sure he'd be the first to admit they are not perfect. It's better than the alternative, though, which is to assume every state is entirely independent and only allow grouped shifts as random chance provides for (which would be far less than 40% for a group of 7 states).

Again, the real takeaway from this isn't that there's a good chance that one of the candidates sweeps the swing states. The real takeaway is that the contest stands on the edge of a knife, and could fall either way easily.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

His model has methods of treating some states as more similar than others, but I'm sure he'd be the first to admit they are not perfect. It's better than the alternative, though, which is to assume every state is entirely independent and only allow grouped shifts as random chance provides for (which would be far less than 40% for a group of 7 states).

Again, the real takeaway from this isn't that there's a good chance that one of the candidates sweeps the swing states. The real takeaway is that the contest stands on the edge of a knife, and could fall either way easily.

Got it, thanks.