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Cupps: taking care of the ball as a freshman

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TR32

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Nov 20, 2009
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Gabe Cupps is beyond his years in taking care of the basketball. Currently, he is averaging less that 1 TO per game in extended minutes.

Compare freshmen:

Cupps....22.5mpg....1.5 ast....0.9 Tov
Galloway...19.6.... 1.6...1.0
Armaan Franklin....13.8 ....1.3 .....0.9
Al Durham.....18.8 .... 1.3 .... 0.8
Devonte Green....13.2.....1.1......1.3
Robert Johnson....27.....2.3.....2.1
James Blackmon....30.....1.5....1.6
Stanford Robinson...16.9....1.0....1.5
Yogi Ferrell.... 28.1....4.1....2.1
 
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I worry about Cupps’s ceiling.
I agree he will likely gain strength and the experience of so many minutes as a freshmen will help him as a sophomore.
But he does not seem to be quick enough to play PG at an elite level nor does his shot look like he will become a 3 pt threat.
Time will tell.
 
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TR32 said:
Gabe Cupps is beyond his years in taking care of the basketball. Currently, he is averaging less that 1 TO per game in extended minutes.

Compare freshmen:

Cupps....22.5mpg....1.5 ast....0.9 Tov
Galloway...19.6.... 1.6...1.0
Armaan Franklin....13.8 ....1.3 .....0.9
Al Durham.....18.8 .... 1.3 .... 0.8
Devonte Green....13.2.....1.1......1.3
Robert Johnson....27.....2.3.....2.1
James Blackmon....30.....1.5....1.6
Stanford Robinson...16.9....1.0....1.5
Yogi Ferrell.... 28.1....4.1....2.1
Click to expand...
What are the Points per game. That is a huge factor in TOs, as they are trying to score more. Cupps usage rate has to be next to nothing. He doesn’t turn it over because he never has the ball.
 
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Gabe's +- was +19 against Minnesota while XJ's was a team worst -13.

He still has a long way to go but he's already our best option at point guard.
 
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Alford his freshman year averaged 15.5 ppg and shot 59% from the field with 3.2 apg and 2 turnovers per game.
 
SIhoosier26 said:
Gabe's +- was +19 against Minnesota while XJ's was a team worst -13.

He still has a long way to go but he's already our best option at point guard.
Click to expand...
The +- is often a very misleading stat when comparing players. Anybody into analytics will tell you that. For one thing, Cupps started the game and played with the starters for many of his minutes. X played more when the subbing started. And we know how Woodson’s substitutions have gone.
Neither of these guys played well. Cupps was 0-5 from the field and 0-1 from the ft line with 1 assist. How much did he contribute to that +19? They were +19 in spite of his mediocre play because our bigs and TG all had strong games. Thankfully, we have TG making plays and getting assists.
 
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Cavanagh said:
What are the Points per game. That is a huge factor in TOs, as they are trying to score more. Cupps usage rate has to be next to nothing. He doesn’t turn it over because he never has the ball.
Click to expand...
It seems like he handles the ball a fair amount of the time that he plays but he initiates next to nothing as far as creating offense, either for himself or anybody else. I'd be curious to know how many times he has attempted a drive to the basket. He has to be the easiest guy to guard since he rarely looks at the basket.

He's the least of our problems though and we're only discussing him because we're running out of things to say about everyone else. Lol
 
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The issue with X is you never know what you are going to get. Cupps is consistent and takes care of the ball and the ball moves better on offense. Issue for Cupps is that he doesn’t pose as an offensive threat. Once he gets confident in his shot he will be a poor man’s Jordan Hulls.
 
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bsmitty08 said:
The issue with X is you never know what you are going to get. Cupps is consistent and takes care of the ball and the ball moves better on offense. Issue for Cupps is that he doesn’t pose as an offensive threat. Once he gets confident in his shot he will be a poor man’s Jordan Hulls.
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It is an argument if Cupps is as good as X at his worst. Why anyone would want that for this year is beyond me. Unless of course they do not want to make the tourney and be 10-10.
 
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Cupps (or any PG) needs to do more than stand two steps behind the 3 point line and swing the ball. Hell, I think I could actually still do that. He needs to get those assists up dramatically. 4 or 5 assists from him every game would make Woody's ISO offense look more like something we recognize. If he drives into gaps and gets the ball to Ware/MR/MM for layups or dunks, we'd be cooking. That would obviously result in more TOs, but the tradeoff would be beneficial.
 
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TR32 said:
Gabe Cupps is beyond his years in taking care of the basketball. Currently, he is averaging less that 1 TO per game in extended minutes.

Compare freshmen:

Cupps....22.5mpg....1.5 ast....0.9 Tov
Galloway...19.6.... 1.6...1.0
Armaan Franklin....13.8 ....1.3 .....0.9
Al Durham.....18.8 .... 1.3 .... 0.8
Devonte Green....13.2.....1.1......1.3
Robert Johnson....27.....2.3.....2.1
James Blackmon....30.....1.5....1.6
Stanford Robinson...16.9....1.0....1.5
Yogi Ferrell.... 28.1....4.1....2.1
Click to expand...
To be honest, the most shocking stat I see is the 1.5 assists. I didn't know he was doing enough on offense to even average that many assists. LOL

Look, in all seriousness, I know people are being hard on him but there's no way that being the 90th ranked kid with his build and skillset, he was ready to play 20 minutes a game in the B1G.

With that being said, is there anyone who can really say that you're not somewhat disappointed with Cupps at this point? I know I am. I thought that he'd be a better penetrator and shooter. Heck, I thought he'd be more like a taller version of Smith from Purdue.

And who knows? Maybe Woody is telling him that his job is to go out there and not make any turnovers and just handle the ball and play D? If so, then he's doing his job.
 
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FormerRevMatt said:
To be honest, the most shocking stat I see is the 1.5 assists. I didn't know he was doing enough on offense to even average that many assists. LOL

Look, in all seriousness, I know people are being hard on him but there's no way that being the 90th ranked kid with his build and skillset, he was ready to play 20 minutes a game in the B1G.

With that being said, is there anyone who can really say that you're not somewhat disappointed with Cupps at this point? I know I am. I thought that he'd be a better penetrator and shooter. Heck, I thought he'd be more like a taller version of Smith from Purdue.

And who knows? Maybe Woody is telling him that his job is to go out there and not make any turnovers and just handle the ball and play D? If so, then he's doing his job.
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I thought he'd be shooting better, or at least taking more shots than he is, given the minutes he's playing. But the transition from high school to P5 basketball is huge. He didn't strike me as a kid who would lack confidence but he passes up some pretty open opportunities. I think once the game slows down for him we'll see more offensive production from him.
 
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We are essentially hiding him on offense. His TO rate on Kenpom is one of the highest in the B1G (26.6%, 92 of 95 that qualify at 40% mins played). That is described as "the percentage of personal possessions used on turnovers".

So when he gets involved and we are using him bad things happen. Meaning it is prob best that Woody says just don't F up right now. BEcaasue , again, he should NOT be playing 20+mins a game. Fans wanting him to are dumb.

But he also leads all sales in NIL memorabilia. That stat makes me giggle.
 
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Cavanagh said:
What are the Points per game. That is a huge factor in TOs, as they are trying to score more. Cupps usage rate has to be next to nothing. He doesn’t turn it over because he never has the ball.
Click to expand...
MPG is a big factor.

But if you want to make arguments about ppg, then mpg, team efg%, FGs per game, possessions, SOS, pace, shot clock duration, 3pt distance, fta per game, percent perimeter scoring, would all factor in. Too complicated. Minutes and TOV per game is a fair look.
 
TR32 said:
Gabe Cupps is beyond his years in taking care of the basketball. Currently, he is averaging less that 1 TO per game in extended minutes.

Compare freshmen:

Cupps....22.5mpg....1.5 ast....0.9 Tov
Galloway...19.6.... 1.6...1.0
Armaan Franklin....13.8 ....1.3 .....0.9
Al Durham.....18.8 .... 1.3 .... 0.8
Devonte Green....13.2.....1.1......1.3
Robert Johnson....27.....2.3.....2.1
James Blackmon....30.....1.5....1.6
Stanford Robinson...16.9....1.0....1.5
Yogi Ferrell.... 28.1....4.1....2.1
Click to expand...
A lot of this can be explained by how he plays, and/or how Woody is asking him to play. In short, he rarely tries to make scoring plays with the ball. He handles the ball very solidly, he doesn't seem to get too rattled reversing the ball or making post entry passes...but he doesn't really create much of anything either.

Respective to the level we all want IU to be at, its not ideal he's "taken over" 20+ PG minutes for us. To be a NCAA level P5 team, you need your PG to be able to create opportunities, and make plays.

But for those comparing Gabe and X, and those arguing back with those comparing Gabe and X...the primary reason why Gabe is playing as many minutes as he is, is because outside 10-15 good minutes against OSU, X has been terrible this year (or obviously unavailable with the injury). And on top of being terrible, he's had a horrible attitude as well. So Gabe has been the better choice. Also, the silver lining to Gabe's efforts thus far, has been that the ball movement is 100x better when he's in the game, than when X is in the game. You can actually see and feel the movement die down when X brings the ball up the floor. We start our offense with 12-15 seconds left on the shot clock instead of 18-20...there's rarely any ball reversals...there's A LOT more ball screen and dribble ISO stuff...

We're 100% at our best when X is attacking the lane, when he's kicking the ball up early in possessions, when his head is screwed on right and he's defending at a high level. Unfortunately, we've only seen that for about 10-15% of the minutes he's played so far this year, for whatever reason.

Our ceiling is lower with more Cupps PG minutes. But our floor is MUCH higher. Tough dilemma for Woody. I wish he had a better handle on how to have X ready mentally every game.
 
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Cavanagh said:
Many here would prefer him playing 20+ mins, and sit X. That is ludicrous.
Click to expand...
This is making the assumption that X is dialed in and playing well. Or maybe actually, its making the assumption that X isn't playing poorly. This year's version of "Bad X" makes 20+ minutes of Gabe seem like 20 minutes of John Stockton.

I'd love for X to just be "average X" for a few months. THAT's better than what we mostly get out of Gabe, if for no other reason than his defensive presence. "Good X" takes this team to a whole different level. We all know that, and want that, it just hasn't happened much the last couple years when he's been healthy.
 
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IUbball_lifer said:
The +- is often a very misleading stat when comparing players. Anybody into analytics will tell you that. For one thing, Cupps started the game and played with the starters for many of his minutes. X played more when the subbing started. And we know how Woodson’s substitutions have gone.
Neither of these guys played well. Cupps was 0-5 from the field and 0-1 from the ft line with 1 assist. How much did he contribute to that +19? They were +19 in spite of his mediocre play because our bigs and TG all had strong games. Thankfully, we have TG making plays and getting assists.
Click to expand...
preach ....
 
IUbball_lifer said:
The +- is often a very misleading stat when comparing players. Anybody into analytics will tell you that. For one thing, Cupps started the game and played with the starters for many of his minutes. X played more when the subbing started. And we know how Woodson’s substitutions have gone.
Neither of these guys played well. Cupps was 0-5 from the field and 0-1 from the ft line with 1 assist. How much did he contribute to that +19? They were +19 in spite of his mediocre play because our bigs and TG all had strong games. Thankfully, we have TG making plays and getting assists.
Click to expand...
Agree with first sentence...and often the reason you used to support it. Who players played with during their minutes, AND who was in for the other team, is often a huge contributor to the plus/minus numbers.

Having said that...Cupps biggest contribution to plus/minus stats are often not captured by traditional stats like points, assists, etc... One thing he does do very well, is helps facilitate ball and player movement. The players you mentioned as carrying the team and producing the +19 had more opportunity to do so, than they did when X was in...because X takes up long stretches of possessions dribbling the ball. X is certainly quite a lot more capable of doing something with the ball at the end of his dribbling, than Gabe is. But the opportunity cost is other players like Malik, Trey, Mack, etc... don't have as much time with the ball in their hands, or as many touches per possession.

Plus/minus is one of the only "stats" one should use to evaluate Gabe right now. Its definitely not perfect, but Gabe's impact, right now, is to facilitate for others. He's the oil in the gears, at times.
 
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IUNorth said:
Agree with first sentence...and often the reason you used to support it. Who players played with during their minutes, AND who was in for the other team, is often a huge contributor to the plus/minus numbers.

Having said that...Cupps biggest contribution to plus/minus stats are often not captured by traditional stats like points, assists, etc... One thing he does do very well, is helps facilitate ball and player movement. The players you mentioned as carrying the team and producing the +19 had more opportunity to do so, than they did when X was in...because X takes up long stretches of possessions dribbling the ball. X is certainly quite a lot more capable of doing something with the ball at the end of his dribbling, than Gabe is. But the opportunity cost is other players like Malik, Trey, Mack, etc... don't have as much time with the ball in their hands, or as many touches per possession.

Plus/minus is one of the only "stats" one should use to evaluate Gabe right now. Its definitely not perfect, but Gabe's impact, right now, is to facilitate for others. He's the oil in the gears, at times.
Click to expand...
If that is your chosen metric of measure, then Cupps was 2.5 times or 250% better than X. X was bad. But Cupps was 0-5 and 0-1 ft in over 20 mins. With 1 assist. Including a couple of really questionable shots. He couldn’t have been 250% better than anyone. The engine that did the facilitating was TG’s ballhandling and penetration with 7 assists. I’ll continue to be wary of the +-
 
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IUbball_lifer said:
If that is your chosen metric of measure, then Cupps was 2.5 times or 250% better than X. X was bad. But Cupps was 0-5 and 0-1 ft in over 20 mins. With 1 assist. Including a couple of really questionable shots. He couldn’t have been 250% better than anyone. The engine that did the facilitating was TG’s ballhandling and penetration with 7 assists. I’ll continue to be wary of the +-
Click to expand...
It is is easy to see though that the ball moves better with Cupps vs X
 
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Cavanagh said:
Many here would prefer him playing 20+ mins, and sit X. That is ludicrous.
Click to expand...

No it isn't. It was explained to you why. X has sucked balls the majority of the year. Cupps hasn't been a big positive but he isn't hurting the team. XJ has hurt the team when he has played, that is particularly true the past few games.

And that is comparing a 24 year old man to an 18 or 19 year old kid. X should be embarrassed for himself that he has been so poor that the Freshman kid who is having Freshman struggles has clearly been the better option. X's potential doesn't amount to a hill of beans if he never reaches it.
 
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Cavanagh said:
We are essentially hiding him on offense. His TO rate on Kenpom is one of the highest in the B1G (26.6%, 92 of 95 that qualify at 40% mins played). That is described as "the percentage of personal possessions used on turnovers".

So when he gets involved and we are using him bad things happen. Meaning it is prob best that Woody says just don't F up right now. BEcaasue , again, he should NOT be playing 20+mins a game. Fans wanting him to are dumb.

But he also leads all sales in NIL memorabilia. That stat makes me giggle.
Click to expand...
It’s because he’s so damned adorable
 
Cavanagh said:
What are the Points per game. That is a huge factor in TOs, as they are trying to score more. Cupps usage rate has to be next to nothing. He doesn’t turn it over because he never has the ball.
Click to expand...
He's cherry picking stats. Of course Cupps has low TOs... he doesn't do anything but bring the ball up and then get out of the way .. his usage is lower than most catch and shoot specialists.

No stat stands alone ... and once you get past 1 per game ... all that remains is statistical suckage.. For a PG that's ugh ... not good.

Defensively he does a good job, and probably rebounds better than any guard we have. So he has his uses ....

Not saying he sucks or anything or that he's not valuable in some way .. I guess.. but ... using TO per game for a player like him to measure any effectiveness is cherry picked gorilla analyzation and means about nothing.

And of course every player on that list has more TO .... because they actually did more than get out of the way.. lol ....
 
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