I'm on the record saying that you can't judge a coach much by the postseason, because the sample is too small. But there is no doubt that patterns develop over the years. No one doubts, for example, that Izzo is an excellent postseason coach.
I've noticed a pattern for Crean, as well. I think I posted on this a year ago, but last year's result actually confirmed my findings, so I'm posting it again.
You see, in the postseason, whether NIT or NCAA, there are essentially two kinds of games: games where you have a 2-day turnaround, and games where you have a 4-or-5-day (or even more, in the NIT) turnaround. More casually, you might divide games into Thursday/Friday and Saturday/Sunday games.
Well, in Crean's career, he's been in 11 postseason tournaments. In only 2 of them did his team lose on a 2-day turnaround (i.e., Saturday/Sunday). In the other 9, he lost after the long turnaround (first round, sweet sixteen, final four, and so forth). Now, that actually makes partial sense, since there are more games with long turnarounds than with short, by the very nature of a bracket.
But look at the winning percentages, too. In long-turnaround days, NIT and NCAA both (defined as either the first round of the tournament or having at least 4 days prep), he is 7-9 overall. In all other games (games with exactly a 2-day turnaround), he is 4-2. (BTW, if you take out the NIT, and only count the NCAA, the disparity is even greater: 5-7 vs. 4-1).
This is an extremely small sample, so we absolutely cannot draw a firm conclusion, but the data definitely leads towards one tentative conclusion: Crean's teams are substantially better when given less time to prepare for, and substantially worse when given more time to prepare for.
Now, you might think that just makes common sense, but remember, if the other coach had 5 days to prepare for Crean, that means Crean had 5 days to prepare, as well. So either this pattern is random noise, or it means that Crean is less adept than other coaches at preparing when given time and/or more adept at preparing on short notice himself (or his style of play is harder to prep for on short notice, or something similarly related).
It will be interesting to see what this year brings. Put in real life terms, what this means is this: if we win in the first round, we might also expect to win in the second round. If we win in the Sweet Sixteen, we might also expect to make the Final Four. If one of Crean's teams is going to lose during part of a four-team sub-bracket, it will almost always be in game 1 (Thursday/Friday), not game 2 (Saturday/Sunday).
Hope all this makes sense. Felt like I got sloppy at the end.
I've noticed a pattern for Crean, as well. I think I posted on this a year ago, but last year's result actually confirmed my findings, so I'm posting it again.
You see, in the postseason, whether NIT or NCAA, there are essentially two kinds of games: games where you have a 2-day turnaround, and games where you have a 4-or-5-day (or even more, in the NIT) turnaround. More casually, you might divide games into Thursday/Friday and Saturday/Sunday games.
Well, in Crean's career, he's been in 11 postseason tournaments. In only 2 of them did his team lose on a 2-day turnaround (i.e., Saturday/Sunday). In the other 9, he lost after the long turnaround (first round, sweet sixteen, final four, and so forth). Now, that actually makes partial sense, since there are more games with long turnarounds than with short, by the very nature of a bracket.
But look at the winning percentages, too. In long-turnaround days, NIT and NCAA both (defined as either the first round of the tournament or having at least 4 days prep), he is 7-9 overall. In all other games (games with exactly a 2-day turnaround), he is 4-2. (BTW, if you take out the NIT, and only count the NCAA, the disparity is even greater: 5-7 vs. 4-1).
This is an extremely small sample, so we absolutely cannot draw a firm conclusion, but the data definitely leads towards one tentative conclusion: Crean's teams are substantially better when given less time to prepare for, and substantially worse when given more time to prepare for.
Now, you might think that just makes common sense, but remember, if the other coach had 5 days to prepare for Crean, that means Crean had 5 days to prepare, as well. So either this pattern is random noise, or it means that Crean is less adept than other coaches at preparing when given time and/or more adept at preparing on short notice himself (or his style of play is harder to prep for on short notice, or something similarly related).
It will be interesting to see what this year brings. Put in real life terms, what this means is this: if we win in the first round, we might also expect to win in the second round. If we win in the Sweet Sixteen, we might also expect to make the Final Four. If one of Crean's teams is going to lose during part of a four-team sub-bracket, it will almost always be in game 1 (Thursday/Friday), not game 2 (Saturday/Sunday).
Hope all this makes sense. Felt like I got sloppy at the end.
