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'Climate change', how much is man made, & how much natural?

billyhillui

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May 18, 2015
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Martha Raddatz just did a segment on ABC's This Week With George Stephanopoulos, on how it's horrible & dangerous that our beaches/shorelines are being evermore covered by rising sea levels. I realize man made pollution makes global warming even worse, but haven't our sea levels been rising since the last ice age ended, about 12, 500 years ago?

Global temperatures continue to rise (& human pollution has increased the rate of temp. rise), but haven't temps. been 'rising' for a very long time anyway/thousands of years? Dr. Roy Spencer, U. of AL. Climatologist says, '11 year solar cycles' have more to do with earth's rising & falling temperatures, than have been calculated into many charts & equations on global warming.

Honestly, there's 'global warming', & there's 'man made global warming'. There IS a difference here, & a significant one.

Now google Dr. Roy Spencer, U. of AL. Climatologist/Meteorologist, & read what he has written on the subject of global warming & '11 year solar cycles'. You might just learn something new?

I'm against man made pollution as much as the next person, but let's be clear on what is causing it now, & all of it's causes, before we rush into something few know the actual facts & circumstances about.


https://www.drroyspencer.com

https://conservapedia.com/ClimateGate



Give a hoot, don't pollute

But Keep It Real Too
 
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An 11 year cycle, is what, 11 years long? Being a cycle it goes from low magnetic output to high and back.so, find the 11 year cycle in the chart below.


In that story you watched, something like 47% of Republicans believed that temperatures were already warming in the 90s, that number is now 29%. So for anyone who has made the change from warming has begun to it has not, what data has made you change your mind?
 
An 11 year cycle, is what, 11 years long? Being a cycle it goes from low magnetic output to high and back.so, find the 11 year cycle in the chart below.


In that story you watched, something like 47% of Republicans believed that temperatures were already warming in the 90s, that number is now 29%. So for anyone who has made the change from warming has begun to it has not, what data has made you change your mind?
Undisputable, are the FACTS, that our earth's MAIN reason for warming & cooling/warming & cooling cycles/temperature changes, is the sun. Our sun has much more to do with our temperatures, their rise & decline, than man made pollution. That is an undisputed fact.

Due to increased solar activity, mass coronal ejections, sun spots, increased solar activity, we get warming periods on earth. Man made pollution has nothing to do with this.

Btw, those climatologists who intentionally recorded false tree ring growth data (while trying to falsely prove their point), should have been fired & not hired again.
 
More about the sun's role. If the sun were the cause, why are the upper layers getting cooler?

 
More about the sun's role. If the sun were the cause, why are the upper layers getting cooler?

Solar light/heat/radiation penetrates every layer of earth's atmosphere, & right into/through our soil/topsoil.

Google 'temperature inversions'. This happens all the time in our atmosphere, water & near earth air.


Btw, China is by far the #1 polluter. Get them to pollute less/cooperate/Kyoto sign, & we'll all be a lot better off. If they do lessen emissions as the UN recommends, it would ruin their economy, & quickly. Your main problem is with China, not anyone/anything else. Should we pollute? No. Should we ruin our economy to cut pollution as much as possible? No, as well.
 
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Solar light/heat/radiation penetrates every layer of earth's atmosphere, & right into/through our soil/topsoil.

Google 'temperature inversions'. This happens all the time in our atmosphere, water & near earth air.
That is not the question. If the sun is warming the earth, the upper atmosphere should also get warmer. Not warmer than the lower levels, but the upper levels should be warmer than they were years ago.

And why do we not measure increased solar output?

 
That is not the question. If the sun is warming the earth, the upper atmosphere should also get warmer. Not warmer than the lower levels, but the upper levels should be warmer than they were years ago.

And why do we not measure increased solar output?

Cooling measurements naturally increases over our poles, thus, we get temperature inversions/variations in upper atmospheric temperature readings.
 
Martha Raddatz just did a segment on ABC's This Week With George Stephanopoulos, on how it's horrible & dangerous that our beaches/shorelines are being evermore covered by rising sea levels. I realize man made pollution makes global warming even worse, but haven't our sea levels been rising since the last ice age ended, about 12, 500 years ago?

Global temperatures continue to rise (& human pollution has increased the rate of temp. rise), but haven't temps. been 'rising' for a very long time anyway/thousands of years? Dr. Roy Spencer, U. of AL. Climatologist says, '11 year solar cycles' have more to do with earth's rising & falling temperatures, than have been calculated into many charts & equations on global warming.

Honestly, there's 'global warming', & there's 'man made global warming'. There IS a difference here, & a significant one.

Now google Dr. Roy Spencer, U. of AL. Climatologist/Meteorologist, & read what he has written on the subject of global warming & '11 year solar cycles'. You might just learn something new?

I'm against man made pollution as much as the next person, but let's be clear on what is causing it now, & all of it's causes, before we rush into something few know the actual facts & circumstances about.


https://www.drroyspencer.com

https://conservapedia.com/ClimateGate



Give a hoot, don't pollute

But Keep It Real Too
The politicians and advocacy scientists have made a joke of climate change and what to do about it. Rational discussion is no longer possible.
  • The Europeans and North Americans commitment to net zero carbon emissions is stupid when China, Russia, India, and Africa, with a population far in excess of us, will not make a similar commitment.
  • The UN Dinosaur’s lecture about changing our ways or face EXTINCTION! is more stupid scaremongering. It reminds me of Biden’s constant reminder that unvaxed are killers
  • The climate models have been wrong for decades and always overstate the problem .
  • Climate models are not science, they are opinion.
  • All the happy talk about renewable energy providing a way forward is BS and not based on science or engineering.
  • We must have nukes to get to net zero.
  • Carbon recapture and sequestration technology is real and feasible and deserves attention. Hydrocarbons will be needed for decades.
  • The smug elites will produce more carbon going to Glasgow than the Scots produce in a year.
  • Rich people like John Kerry, Barak Obama, Al Gore, and Joe Biden all of whom occupy more square footage than scores of normal people and travel by mostly private jet lecturing me about climate makes me want to vomit.
 
  • Rich people like John Kerry, Barak Obama, Al Gore, and Joe Biden all of whom occupy more square footage than scores of normal people and travel by mostly private jet lecturing me about climate makes me want to vomit.
CoH, why are they picking on you ? :)
 
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The politicians and advocacy scientists have made a joke of climate change and what to do about it. Rational discussion is no longer possible.
  • The Europeans and North Americans commitment to net zero carbon emissions is stupid when China, Russia, India, and Africa, with a population far in excess of us, will not make a similar commitment.
  • The UN Dinosaur’s lecture about changing our ways or face EXTINCTION! is more stupid scaremongering. It reminds me of Biden’s constant reminder that unvaxed are killers
  • The climate models have been wrong for decades and always overstate the problem .
  • Climate models are not science, they are opinion.
  • All the happy talk about renewable energy providing a way forward is BS and not based on science or engineering.
  • We must have nukes to get to net zero.
  • Carbon recapture and sequestration technology is real and feasible and deserves attention. Hydrocarbons will be needed for decades.
  • The smug elites will produce more carbon going to Glasgow than the Scots produce in a year.
  • Rich people like John Kerry, Barak Obama, Al Gore, and Joe Biden all of whom occupy more square footage than scores of normal people and travel by mostly private jet lecturing me about climate makes me want to vomit.


Check this out. meteorologist & climatologist, Ph.D Dr. Roy Spencer knows climate change, & he explains it here. 'Eleven year solar cycles'

https://www.drroyspencer.com

https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/
 
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Yes, the dozens of other climate scientists are wrong, only this guy knows the secret.
Dr. Roy Spencer & I never said/stated our climate wasn't warming. It has been (naturally) since the end of the last Ice Age, about 12, 500 years ago.

Btw, back in the 70's, didn't your scientists (NASA & otherwise) & climatologists say/predict we were all going to freeze to death? :) Pick one. :) That makes Dr. Spencer's record better than yours, theirs or his deniers. :)


Dr. Roy Spencer was a Senior Scientist for Climate Studies, at NASA. :O = Roy knows 'climate change'. :)






Sincerely

Honest Al Gore :)



:O
 
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Dr. Roy Spencer & I never said/stated our climate wasn't warming. It has been (naturally) since the end of the last Ice Age, about 12, 500 years ago.

Btw, back in the 70's, didn't your scientists (NASA & otherwise) & climatologists say/predict we were all going to freeze to death? :) Pick one. :) That makes Dr. Spencer's record better than yours, theirs or his deniers. :)


Dr. Roy Spencer was a Senior Scientist for Climate Studies, at NASA. :O = Roy knows 'climate change'. :)






Sincerely

Honest Al Gore :)



:O
No, they didn't predict that. Only idiots fall for that talking point.
 
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That’s not what the links say at all. Posts like this is why any discussion of climate is now a waste of time.
You mean most scientists do not think that natural 11 year cycle is the vast majority of global warming? Are you suggesting that?

11 year cycles are sunspots. If they were the cause we would see 11 year cycles in global temperatures.
 
No, they didn't predict that. Only idiots fall for that talking point.
WHO "didn't predict that"?

I was there, & lived/heard/witnessed it, Jack!

Not all, but many/too many to just dust off as off kilter or wild assumptions.

As I previously stated, 'Eleven year solar cycles' are important in calculating global temperatures.



I remember seeing these wild predictions on tv, & hearing them on radio. :O





Google for yourself

It Happened
 
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You mean most scientists do not think that natural 11 year cycle is the vast majority of global warming? Are you suggesting that?

11 year cycles are sunspots. If they were the cause we would see 11 year cycles in global temperatures.
Eleven year solar cycles are natural (& have been going on for longer than humans have been around). They are not sunspots, but extracurricular solar activity, which may include (but not mutually exclusive to) solar flares, mass coronal ejections, sunspots, solar flares, i. e., increased solar activity/energy releases.

I never said or implied they were the main cause for global warming, but MUST be factored in, when accurately calculating global temperatures & periodic warming.
 
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  • Rich people like John Kerry, Barak Obama, Al Gore, and Joe Biden all of whom occupy more square footage than scores of normal people and travel by mostly private jet lecturing me about climate makes me want to vomit.
CoH, why are they picking on you ? :)
Hey, wait a minute, ol’ Joe took 8000+ round trip train commutes between Wilmington and DC over the years. He doesn’t deserve to be lumped in with the others.
 
Climate changes over millennia, with as mentioned small solar cycles. But the current rate of change has really only been topped by those following supervolcano eruptions or asteroid impacts.
 
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Climate changes over millennia, with as mentioned small solar cycles. But the current rate of change has really only been topped by those following supervolcano eruptions or asteroid impacts.
Those do play a key factor in determining actual temperature changes. Just as measuring the temperature near the equator or near a pole is bad, because those temperatures are extremes.

38 parallel is a pretty good place to measure temperatures.

Guess where we are?
 
One striking example was when I visited Alaska and made it a point so see many glaciers. Most glaciers have indeed been receeding for centuries, but... the rate of recession is accelerating tremendously.

One of them, maybe the Matanuska, required a pretty good hike to get to from the parking lot.

Get on the trail right next to parking and you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1901" .
10 feet or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1920".
10 feet or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1940".
20 feet or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1960".
100 feet or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1980".
a half mile or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 2000".
a mile or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 2015", which was when I visited

It may not disappear entirely in my lifetime, but it is unlikely to be there at all by the end of this century.
 
One striking example was when I visited Alaska and made it a point so see many glaciers. Most glaciers have indeed been receeding for centuries, but... the rate of recession is accelerating tremendously.

One of them, maybe the Matanuska, required a pretty good hike to get to from the parking lot.

Get on the trail right next to parking and you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1901" .
10 feet or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1920".
10 feet or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1940".
20 feet or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1960".
100 feet or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1980".
a half mile or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 2000".
a mile or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 2015", which was when I visited

It may not disappear entirely in my lifetime, but it is unlikely to be there at all by the end of this century.


Next time you visit, try & save a baby Harp Seal or two. They go good with fried Duck-Billed Platypus & Dodo eggs.



More Water = better fishing

Elmer Fudd

:)
 
The politicians and advocacy scientists have made a joke of climate change and what to do about it. Rational discussion is no longer possible.
  • The Europeans and North Americans commitment to net zero carbon emissions is stupid when China, Russia, India, and Africa, with a population far in excess of us, will not make a similar commitment.
  • The UN Dinosaur’s lecture about changing our ways or face EXTINCTION! is more stupid scaremongering. It reminds me of Biden’s constant reminder that unvaxed are killers
  • The climate models have been wrong for decades and always overstate the problem .
  • Climate models are not science, they are opinion.
  • All the happy talk about renewable energy providing a way forward is BS and not based on science or engineering.
  • We must have nukes to get to net zero.
  • Carbon recapture and sequestration technology is real and feasible and deserves attention. Hydrocarbons will be needed for decades.
  • The smug elites will produce more carbon going to Glasgow than the Scots produce in a year.
  • Rich people like John Kerry, Barak Obama, Al Gore, and Joe Biden all of whom occupy more square footage than scores of normal people and travel by mostly private jet lecturing me about climate makes me want to vomit.

Is this the whole "we don't want to save the planet because those bad people aren't wanting to save it either" argument?

People like you will be saying renewable energy is BS right up until we run out of oil....then it will be like oh shit, i was wrong.
 
Martha Raddatz just did a segment on ABC's This Week With George Stephanopoulos, on how it's horrible & dangerous that our beaches/shorelines are being evermore covered by rising sea levels. I realize man made pollution makes global warming even worse, but haven't our sea levels been rising since the last ice age ended, about 12, 500 years ago?

Global temperatures continue to rise (& human pollution has increased the rate of temp. rise), but haven't temps. been 'rising' for a very long time anyway/thousands of years? Dr. Roy Spencer, U. of AL. Climatologist says, '11 year solar cycles' have more to do with earth's rising & falling temperatures, than have been calculated into many charts & equations on global warming.

Honestly, there's 'global warming', & there's 'man made global warming'. There IS a difference here, & a significant one.

Now google Dr. Roy Spencer, U. of AL. Climatologist/Meteorologist, & read what he has written on the subject of global warming & '11 year solar cycles'. You might just learn something new?

I'm against man made pollution as much as the next person, but let's be clear on what is causing it now, & all of it's causes, before we rush into something few know the actual facts & circumstances about.


https://www.drroyspencer.com

https://conservapedia.com/ClimateGate



Give a hoot, don't pollute

But Keep It Real Too
Does anybody blame the Sun anymore? The Sun blasts us with solar flares and gets away with it. I don't like it.
 
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Eleven year solar cycles are natural (& have been going on for longer than humans have been around). They are not sunspots, but extracurricular solar activity, which may include (but not mutually exclusive to) solar flares, mass coronal ejections, sunspots, solar flares, i. e., increased solar activity/energy releases.

I never said or implied they were the main cause for global warming, but MUST be factored in, when accurately calculating global temperatures & periodic warming.
The solar cycle (which does, in fact, include sunspot activity) certainly has some effect on global temperatures. However, the average solar radiation hasn't changed since we started accurately measuring it in the middle of the 20th century. Meanwhile, global temperatures have consistently risen. So it's extremely unlikely that changes in solar activity are driving increases in global temperature. Something happening on a much longer scale than 11 years is the culprit.

On the other hand, the current trend in global temperatures does correlate very neatly with the burning of fossil fuels since the industrial age began. That is why it is the likely culprit.

To answer your original question, then, while climate does change for various natural reasons, the current spike in global temperatures (extremely rapid in geological timescale terms) is most certainly the result of human activity.
 
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The solar cycle (which does, in fact, include sunspot activity) certainly has some effect on global temperatures. However, the average solar radiation hasn't changed since we started accurately measuring it in the middle of the 20th century. Meanwhile, global temperatures have consistently risen. So it's extremely unlikely that changes in solar activity are driving increases in global temperature. Something happening on a much longer scale than 11 years is the culprit.

On the other hand, the current trend in global temperatures does correlate very neatly with the burning of fossil fuels since the industrial age began. That is why it is the likely culprit.

To answer your original question, then, while climate does change for various natural reasons, the current spike in global temperatures (extremely rapid in geological timescale terms) is most certainly the result of human activity.
Our sun does play a factor though, & any calculations must take this into account.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GISSTemperature/giss_temperature2.php

https://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2014/02/04/global-warming-tree-ring-circus/?sh=4b838c964774
 
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Does anybody blame the Sun anymore? The Sun blasts us with solar flares and gets away with it. I don't like it.
Email/twitter Dan Dakich, & ask him his B1G basketball predictions now, before the season starts. I want to see his top 7 teams. I could be wrong, but it seems he still has a grudge against IU/IU basketball.





Sincerely

D. Fife
 
Is this the whole "we don't want to save the planet because those bad people aren't wanting to save it either" argument?

People like you will be saying renewable energy is BS right up until we run out of oil....then it will be like oh shit, i was wrong.
Who says I don’t want to save the planet?

I simply can’t take seriously those who lecture about carbon while they deliberately and unnecessarily dump more carbon into the air than I ever will.

Renewable energy (wind and solar) can never be a substitute for fossil fuel energy. Thinking otherwise is BS. Only nukes can do that at this time.
 
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Who says I don’t want to save the planet?

I simply can’t take seriously those who lecture about carbon while they deliberately and unnecessarily dump more carbon into the air than I ever will.

Renewable energy (wind and solar) can never be a substitute for fossil fuel energy. Thinking otherwise is BS. Only nukes can do that at this time.
I don't expect you to ever come around on this point, but solar absolutely can be a substitute, and it is in fact the only long-term solution (nuclear will eventually have a fuel problem, even if it doesn't happen for centuries). But it's not traditional solar. It's satellite collectors at Lagrangian points in orbit beaming energy to earth in the form of microwaves. We have the technology to do it now. We just need the motivation and the inspiration to see it done.

Until we do, though, nuclear is most obvious bridge. We should be going all-in on nuclear. Although they didn't/don't get good press for it, Trump did a lot for the nuke industry, and Biden has continued/expanded those pro-nuke policies.
 
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Martha Raddatz just did a segment on ABC's This Week With George Stephanopoulos, on how it's horrible & dangerous that our beaches/shorelines are being evermore covered by rising sea levels. I realize man made pollution makes global warming even worse, but haven't our sea levels been rising since the last ice age ended, about 12, 500 years ago?

Global temperatures continue to rise (& human pollution has increased the rate of temp. rise), but haven't temps. been 'rising' for a very long time anyway/thousands of years? Dr. Roy Spencer, U. of AL. Climatologist says, '11 year solar cycles' have more to do with earth's rising & falling temperatures, than have been calculated into many charts & equations on global warming.

Honestly, there's 'global warming', & there's 'man made global warming'. There IS a difference here, & a significant one.

Now google Dr. Roy Spencer, U. of AL. Climatologist/Meteorologist, & read what he has written on the subject of global warming & '11 year solar cycles'. You might just learn something new?

I'm against man made pollution as much as the next person, but let's be clear on what is causing it now, & all of it's causes, before we rush into something few know the actual facts & circumstances about.


https://www.drroyspencer.com

https://conservapedia.com/ClimateGate



Give a hoot, don't pollute

But Keep It Real Too
It doesn't really matter whether it's man made or not -- the 3rd grade science (duh, reading thermometers and writing it down) is so simple that the warming over time can't seriously be denied. Either way, we should be preparing for it much more than we are.

Used to be that the deniers were denying that it was occurring at all so let's do nothing -- now they're saying it's just natural, not manmade, so let's do nothing. Manmade or natural, we are not preparing for it enough, except for (wait for it) Florida!

Yes Florida. About a year or so ago, I read that Florida was changing its building codes to require the ground floors of new construction to be several feet higher than before (obviously, to address rising sea levels). Just a few days ago, I ran across this article about another aspect of Florida's preparation:


I hope other locations are equally diligent but, if so, I haven't read about them yet.
 
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Undisputable, are the FACTS, that our earth's MAIN reason for warming & cooling/warming & cooling cycles/temperature changes, is the sun. Our sun has much more to do with our temperatures, their rise & decline, than man made pollution. That is an undisputed fact.

Due to increased solar activity, mass coronal ejections, sun spots, increased solar activity, we get warming periods on earth. Man made pollution has nothing to do with this.

Btw, those climatologists who intentionally recorded false tree ring growth data (while trying to falsely prove their point), should have been fired & not hired again.
So, you just admitted the earth's temperature is rising.

What are you proposing that we do to prepare for the impacts?
 
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One striking example was when I visited Alaska and made it a point so see many glaciers. Most glaciers have indeed been receeding for centuries, but... the rate of recession is accelerating tremendously.

One of them, maybe the Matanuska, required a pretty good hike to get to from the parking lot.

Get on the trail right next to parking and you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1901" .
10 feet or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1920".
10 feet or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1940".
20 feet or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1960".
100 feet or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 1980".
a half mile or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 2000".
a mile or so further you see a sign saying "glaciers edge, 2015", which was when I visited

It may not disappear entirely in my lifetime, but it is unlikely to be there at all by the end of this century.
But Billy says don't worry because it's natural.
 
So, you just admitted the earth's temperature is rising.

What are you proposing that we do to prepare for the impacts?
The earth's temperature has been rising since the end of the last Ice Age, about 12, 500 years ago. I never said our temperatures weren't rising, only that when climate change calculations are made, all determining factors must be included in.

I love wind & sun, but too many expect us to just drop fossil fuels like a rock, & transition immediately to solar, wind & thermal, with no negligible effect on our economy. I like SAFE nuclear, as France & several other nations now use. I also like natural gas.

We couldn't just drop fossil fuel production immediately, even if we wanted to. Plastics, & other synthetics are derived from processing fossil fuels. I expect to soon see the use of high tech solar panels on auto rooftops & on truck beds, especially in desert/very hot & dry environments. My next vehicle purchase will be an all electric vehicle. If those prices were now more reasonable, I would already have one.




'Patience is a virtue'

It Will Come
 
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