There is no way of knowing. It is possible. I suspect China has a lot of faith in its military and believes it is superior to Russia's.
China is faced with a very difficult battle if she chooses. At Normandy we had total air superiority, there was virtually no German navy to intervene, we were largely up against 2nd and 3rd line units, and the Germans had zero idea it was about to happen. It was still touch and go.
Taiwan has an air force, they have subs, they have anti-ship missiles, air defense, and they have our satellite intel to warn them. Where our roughly 100-mile crossing from UK to Normandy was completely unopposed, China could expect to be met with a lot of missiles for most of the distance.
And the thing China wants most, Taiwan Semiconductor, would be a smoldering ruin by the time they got there.
Our wargames may not be accurate, there is a lot of guesswork. But if an invasion fleet appeared, much of it would be sunk. Much of her air force shot down. Taiwan would be devastated. Much like Ukraine, what would China get from a country completely ruined at that cost?
CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that Taiwan would endure as a democratic and independent entity in most scenarios. However, the costs were enormous. Victory is not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence to avoid war.
www.csis.org
I know you know about Fulda Gap far more intimately than I do. Did we not expect a Soviet force to pour right through year after year after year? I don't recall it happening.
it is possible China will, I can't say no. I can say there are people who make a great deal of money and prestige out on the circuit predicting it just as people did predicting the Russians fighting through the Fulda Gap.