CFP rooting interests and other scenarios

[IndyResident16]

-At this point need Miami to run the table. ACC is a one bid league unless SMU or Clemson win the ACC championship. 1 loss Miami likely gets in with their current ranking

-B12 is almost assuredly a one bid league but BYU running the table ensures it.

-We’re big Georgia fans the next two weeks. Georgia beating Ole Miss this weekend eliminates Rebels from contention and Georgia beating Tennessee the following week would allow the idle Hoosiers to jump the Volunteers assuming we take care of business this weekend.

-Penn St losing to either Washington or Minnesota to end the year likely ensures the Hoosiers are in at 11-1 assuming the one loss is to Ohio State

-Alabama/LSU is an elimination game this weekend. If Bama is is fortunate enough to escape Death Valley with a win, good chance they jump a few teams…IU included

-TAMU must beat Texas last game of the year to have a chance

My gut says the only chance an 11-1 IU team doesn’t get in is if a team like SMU upsets Miami in the ACC championship game and even then the probability IU gets in is still very high

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

-At this point need Miami to run the table. ACC is a one bid league unless SMU or Clemson win the ACC championship. 1 loss Miami likely gets in with their current ranking

-B12 is almost assuredly a one bid league but BYU running the table ensures it.

-We’re big Georgia fans the next two weeks. Georgia beating Ole Miss this weekend eliminates Rebels from contention and Georgia beating Tennessee the following week would allow the idle Hoosiers to jump the Volunteers assuming we take care of business this weekend.

-Penn St losing to either Washington or Minnesota to end the year likely ensures the Hoosiers are in at 11-1 assuming the one loss is to Ohio State

-Alabama/LSU is an elimination game this weekend. If Bama is is fortunate enough to escape Death Valley with a win, good chance they jump a few teams…IU included

-TAMU must beat Texas last game of the year to have a chance

My gut says the only chance an 11-1 IU team doesn’t get in is if a team like SMU upsets Miami in the ACC championship game and even then the probability IU gets in is still very high

You left out ND. Them losing to Army or USC would be beneficial, as it would knock them out. They shouldn't be in to begin with, but that's neither here nor there.

 

[IndyResident16]

You left out ND. Them losing to Army or USC would be beneficial, as it would knock them out. They shouldn't be in to begin with, but that's neither here nor there.

True, any loss to a team rated lower than IU is beneficial at this point. However, I don't see ND losing the rest of this year. And as much as I hate ND, an 11-1 Irish team deserves to get in over a 3 loss SEC team.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

-At this point need Miami to run the table. ACC is a one bid league unless SMU or Clemson win the ACC championship. 1 loss Miami likely gets in with their current ranking

-B12 is almost assuredly a one bid league but BYU running the table ensures it.

-We’re big Georgia fans the next two weeks. Georgia beating Ole Miss this weekend eliminates Rebels from contention and Georgia beating Tennessee the following week would allow the idle Hoosiers to jump the Volunteers assuming we take care of business this weekend.

-Penn St losing to either Washington or Minnesota to end the year likely ensures the Hoosiers are in at 11-1 assuming the one loss is to Ohio State

-Alabama/LSU is an elimination game this weekend. If Bama is is fortunate enough to escape Death Valley with a win, good chance they jump a few teams…IU included

-TAMU must beat Texas last game of the year to have a chance

My gut says the only chance an 11-1 IU team doesn’t get in is if a team like SMU upsets Miami in the ACC championship game and even then the probability IU gets in is still very high

I agree with almost everything, but if we beat UM Sat, we are at a 96% chance to qualify. That assumes a loss at O$U and a win against PU. The 4% chance we don't make it rests squarely on your 1st 2 points regarding upsets in the ACC & B12 championship games. We need them both to be 1 bid leagues.

Also, I do not see a 2 loss Bama jumping an undefeated IU next week. When the dust settles and the final rankings come out, a 10-2 Bama could certainly be ahead of an 11-1 IU, but unless both the ACC & B12 get 2 teams in, IU will be fine. #9 BYU is ranked below #8 IU, and if they finish 12-1 and we are 11-1, I think we'd make it over them. Especially if that loss is to Colorado. Beat UM and PU and we are in basically.

 

[vesuvius13]

The one thing IU can control is win all the remaining games. IU doesn't need other teams to lose and only win out the rest of the season.

 

[IUNorth]

-At this point need Miami to run the table. ACC is a one bid league unless SMU or Clemson win the ACC championship. 1 loss Miami likely gets in with their current ranking

-B12 is almost assuredly a one bid league but BYU running the table ensures it.

-We’re big Georgia fans the next two weeks. Georgia beating Ole Miss this weekend eliminates Rebels from contention and Georgia beating Tennessee the following week would allow the idle Hoosiers to jump the Volunteers assuming we take care of business this weekend.

-Penn St losing to either Washington or Minnesota to end the year likely ensures the Hoosiers are in at 11-1 assuming the one loss is to Ohio State

-Alabama/LSU is an elimination game this weekend. If Bama is is fortunate enough to escape Death Valley with a win, good chance they jump a few teams…IU included

-TAMU must beat Texas last game of the year to have a chance

My gut says the only chance an 11-1 IU team doesn’t get in is if a team like SMU upsets Miami in the ACC championship game and even then the probability IU gets in is still very high

Good points on all of them.

I'd add that unfortunately, IU needs more style points coming home. Both to create more immunity to getting leap frogged by 2 loss SEC teams, and/or a 1 loss BYU if they were to lose in B12 championship game...but then to also improve their seeding.

Namely, we need to be competitive at OSU in a few weeks. If we're sitting at 11-1, with our only game against a ranked team being a blowout loss. That could weigh on the voters minds when comparing against 2 loss teams in the SEC, that would have multiple wins over ranked teams. But if we combine a bunch of dominant wins, with a very good showing in Columbus, that ends up being a loss. I don't see any scenario that ends with IU missing the CFP. Even if Miami and BYU lose in their conf championships, ND runs the table, Georgia loses, and Bama runs the table.

 

[edub72]

A lot of carnage yet to come. Utah could beat BYU this weekend. SEC has several games that will affect the CFP.

 

[jacksback]

It's still nucking futs that we're even having this conversation!

 

[kmathum]

It's still nucking futs that we're even having this conversation!

Yeah. It's absolutely incredible what cig has done in such a short time.

 

[13thman]

-At this point need Miami to run the table. ACC is a one bid league unless SMU or Clemson win the ACC championship. 1 loss Miami likely gets in with their current ranking

-B12 is almost assuredly a one bid league but BYU running the table ensures it.

-We’re big Georgia fans the next two weeks. Georgia beating Ole Miss this weekend eliminates Rebels from contention and Georgia beating Tennessee the following week would allow the idle Hoosiers to jump the Volunteers assuming we take care of business this weekend.

-Penn St losing to either Washington or Minnesota to end the year likely ensures the Hoosiers are in at 11-1 assuming the one loss is to Ohio State

-Alabama/LSU is an elimination game this weekend. If Bama is is fortunate enough to escape Death Valley with a win, good chance they jump a few teams…IU included

-TAMU must beat Texas last game of the year to have a chance

My gut says the only chance an 11-1 IU team doesn’t get in is if a team like SMU upsets Miami in the ACC championship game and even then the probability IU gets in is still very high

Which is worse for Indiana. 11-1 or 11-2 with the second loss in the BIG championship game?

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

Which is worse for Indiana. 11-1 or 11-2 with the second loss in the BIG championship game?

11-2, because it means we lost to either Michigan or Purdue, because we can't get to the B1G Championship game unless we beat Ohio State (barring some BIG help from other games)

 

[13thman]

11-2, because it means we lost to either Michigan or Purdue, because we can't get to the B1G Championship game unless we beat Ohio State (barring some BIG help from other games)

Us getting to the championship game at 11-1 isn't all that far fetched.

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

Us getting to the championship game at 11-1 isn't all that far fetched.

Spell it out for me.

The way I see it, if that one is OSU, then they own the first tiebreakers against both us and PSU and then assume Oregon gets the top spot.

 

[13thman]

Spell it out for me.

The way I see it, if that one is OSU, then they own the first tiebreakers against both us and PSU and then assume Oregon gets the top spot.

Ohio St could lose to Mich and Penn St could lose to Minnesota. They're not likely, but not out of the question either.

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

Ohio St could lose to Mich and Penn St could lose to Minnesota. They're not likely, but not out of the question either.

Those outcomes fall under the big help that I referred to. I’d never say never, especially because I think that Penn State and Minnesota game is in the Twin Cities. But this year‘s version of Michigan going to the horseshoe, no chance.

 

[Tammany Hall]

I’ve got a little hope for a surging Minny to beat PSU. OSU will be out for blood/payback vs UM.

 

[td75]

Indiana needs to run the table to control their own destiny. The beautiful thing is, Indiana is good enough to do that!!

I also think that if Indiana runs the table, they will beat Oregon in Lucas Oil!

 

[TMFT]

Indiana needs to run the table to control their own destiny. The beautiful thing is, Indiana is good enough to do that!!

I also think that if Indiana runs the table, they will beat Oregon in Lucas Oil!

I almost pulled the trigger on buying some B1G championship game tickets today. Couldn’t quite muster the courage. I hope I end up regretting that. Because it’s gonna be a hot ticket if they get in.

 

[12375CAT]

-B12 is almost assuredly a one bid league but BYU running the table ensures it.

If we win out & the Cougars win out & we beat the Cougars on 12/7 then there will be 2 B12 teams @ the pigskin final 12. Agree?

 

[IndyResident16]

I almost pulled the trigger on buying some B1G championship game tickets today. Couldn’t quite muster the courage. I hope I end up regretting that. Because it’s gonna be a hot ticket if they get in.

Gonna be a hot ticket either way. Either you get to enjoy the Hoosiers playing Oregon or re-sell it to an Ohio State fan.

 

[IndyResident16]

Update here:

Couldn’t ask for a better outcome after tonight’s reveal other Penn State being ranked 4th. IU is ranked ahead of every single 2 loss SEC despite the media drumming up a bunch of different scenarios where a 1 loss IU team gets the shaft.

-Georgia/Tennessee: Georgia is out with a loss, period. Georgia winning is going to cause some chaos. Can’t bump Tennessee completely out given their H2H win over Bama and not sure you can bump Ole Miss out given their H2H win over Georgia. This might be where Notre Dame’s loss to NIU rears its ugly head and they then become the first team out.

-ACC is a one bid league based on Miami’s current ranking. No way they get an at-large with a 2nd loss.

-An undefeated BYU losing in the B12 championship could open the door for a 2 bid B12. Unlikely, but there’s a path. Would likely come at the expense of one of the two loss SEC teams.

-A competitive loss to OSU likely seals it for IU but so would a loss from either Penn St or Notre Dame. If Indiana beats Ohio State they’ll either be the #1 seed or the 5th seed based on the outcome of the Oregon game.

 

[jiouhyu]

I almost pulled the trigger on buying some B1G championship game tickets today. Couldn’t quite muster the courage. I hope I end up regretting that. Because it’s gonna be a hot ticket if they get in.

Bought 3 last night. Figure I can almost get my $$ back if our team isn't it. OSU will travel and will be #1 vs #2 rematch of a classic game.

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

Update here:

Couldn’t ask for a better outcome after tonight’s reveal other Penn State being ranked 4th. IU is ranked ahead of every single 2 loss SEC despite the media drumming up a bunch of different scenarios where a 1 loss IU team gets the shaft.

-Georgia/Tennessee: Georgia is out with a loss, period. Georgia winning is going to cause some chaos. Can’t bump Tennessee completely out given their H2H win over Bama and not sure you can bump Ole Miss out given their H2H win over Georgia. This might be where Notre Dame’s loss to NIU rears its ugly head and they then become the first team out.

-ACC is a one bid league based on Miami’s current ranking. No way they get an at-large with a 2nd loss.

-An undefeated BYU losing in the B12 championship could open the door for a 2 bid B12. Unlikely, but there’s a path. Would likely come at the expense of one of the two loss SEC teams.

-A competitive loss to OSU likely seals it for IU but so would a loss from either Penn St or Notre Dame. If Indiana beats Ohio State they’ll either be the #1 seed or the 5th seed based on the outcome of the Oregon game.

This H2H stuff is overblown by the pundits and committee, in my opinion.

Kentucky beat Ole Miss, so they should be ahead of them.
Vandy beat Bama, so they should be ahead of them.

I don't give a good goddamn if Bama beat UGA or Ole Miss beat UGA...if you're so much better than those teams, don't lose to Kentucky or Vandy.

 

[IndyResident16]

This H2H stuff is overblown by the pundits and committee, in my opinion.

Kentucky beat Ole Miss, so they should be ahead of them.
Vandy beat Bama, so they should be ahead of them.

I don't give a good goddamn if Bama beat UGA or Ole Miss beat UGA...if you're so much better than those teams, don't lose to Kentucky or Vandy.

Vanderbilt 4 losses and counting and Kentucky 6 losses and counting aren't being considered for the CFP. So no that application doesn't work here. But when the committee is deciding which 2 loss SEC team is going to be the 4th and final SEC team in the field, you can bet your ass that H2H will be considered and more than likely the determining factor.

So no, H2H in the scenario I laid out isn't overblown in the least.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

It's worse to lose to a terrible UK team than it is to beat Western IL. Our SoS is about to jump up after the O$U game, regardless of the outcome. As many others have said, a competitive loss isn't really a bad outcome. I think we can win, so I would be pretty surprised if we got blown out.

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

Vanderbilt 4 losses and counting and Kentucky 6 losses and counting aren't being considered for the CFP. So no that application doesn't work here. But when the committee is deciding which 2 loss SEC team is going to be the 4th and final SEC team in the field, you can bet your ass that H2H will be considered and more than likely the determining factor.

So no, H2H in the scenario I laid out isn't overblown in the least.

Supposing UGA beats Tenn this weekend, you'd then have:


Texas lost to Georgia
Georgia lost to Bama and Ole Miss
Bama lost to Vandy and Tenn
Tenn lost to Ark and UGA
Ole Miss lost to UK and LSU

So you're gonna end up with all 5 SEC teams in because of H2H even though Bama, Tenn and Ole Miss have losses to some very MEH teams, just because they beat someone else in the conversation.

I say, Ole Miss...sayonara! Doesn't matter that you beat UGA...they're barely in (if they beat UT) anyway.

 

[IndyResident16]

So you're gonna end up with all 5 SEC teams in because of H2H even though Bama, Tenn and Ole Miss have losses to some very MEH teams, just because they beat someone else in the conversation.

No.

The last SEC team in/first SEC team out will be based on H2H. Ole Miss is the last team in right now. Georgia is the first team out. What's the common denominator Georgia and Ole Miss? H2H

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

Vanderbilt 4 losses and counting and Kentucky 6 losses and counting aren't being considered for the CFP. So no that application doesn't work here. But when the committee is deciding which 2 loss SEC team is going to be the 4th and final SEC team in the field, you can bet your ass that H2H will be considered and more than likely the determining factor.

So no, H2H in the scenario I laid out isn't overblown in the least.

I think that the CFP committee has to take into account what would be “bad losses” though, no? I mean, we have 2 loss teams in the SEC like Ole Miss.
Ole Miss has a good win over Georgia but laid a complete egg at home to Kentucky. A UK team that is going to very likely finish 4-8.
Tennessee lost to an Arkansas team that will like finish 6-6. Tennessee could potentially pick up losses this week against Georgia and on the road in the final game on the road at Vandy. That knocks them out.
Texas and Texas A&M finish the season out at A&M. If Texas wins, That becomes TA&M’s 3rd loss of the year. They are no longer considered. Need to pull for UK and Arkansas to beat Texas, handing them their 3rd loss.
These next two weeks, a bunch of stuff begins to shake out.

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

No.

The last SEC team in/first SEC team out will be based on H2H. Ole Miss is the last team in right now. Georgia is the first team out. What's the common denominator Georgia and Ole Miss? H2H

But UGA hasn't beaten Tenn yet...which was my supposition above. That would elevate them over Ole Miss IMO

 

[IUNorth]

I ran my own, highly sophisticated, simulation...

-IU losing a decent game at OSU
-OSU beating Oregon in B10 champ game
-Georgia winning out
-Ole Miss winning out, including beating Texas in SEC title game
-Bama winning out
-SMU beating Miami in ACC title game
-Colorado beating BYU in B12 title game
-Boise State winning out and getting Group of 5 spot
-Tennessee sliding in to the last at large spot

1 Ohio State... Playing winner of 9 Indiana at 8 Bama in the Rose Bowl
2 Ole Miss... Playing winner of 10 Georgia at 7 Penn State in the Sugar Bowl
3 SMU... Playing winner of 11 Boise State at 6 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl
4 Colorado... Playing the winner of 12 Tennessee at 5 Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl

 

[td75]

I ran my own, highly sophisticated, simulation...

-IU losing a decent game at OSU
-OSU beating Oregon in B10 champ game
-Georgia winning out
-Ole Miss winning out, including beating Texas in SEC title game
-Bama winning out
-SMU beating Miami in ACC title game
-Colorado beating BYU in B12 title game
-Boise State winning out and getting Group of 5 spot
-Tennessee sliding in to the last at large spot

1 Ohio State... Playing winner of 9 Indiana at 8 Bama in the Rose Bowl
2 Ole Miss... Playing winner of 10 Georgia at 7 Penn State in the Sugar Bowl
3 SMU... Playing winner of 11 Boise State at 6 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl
4 Colorado... Playing the winner of 12 Tennessee at 5 Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl

I'd much rather Indiana host Bama!!

 

[EvansvilleHoosier88]

So you have Texas making the sec title game and missing the CFP?

 

[IUNorth]

So you have Texas making the sec title game and missing the CFP?

Damn it! OK...only mildly sophisticated. What a scandal.

They'd be ahead of IU, playing Bama probably. IU at Notre Dame or Penn State. Tennessee gets bumped.

 

[Hoosiers Rising]

Is there a chance that OSU overlooks this week’s opponent looking ahead to IU? Can’t believe I just typed that.

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

Is there a chance that OSU overlooks this week’s opponent looking ahead to IU? Can’t believe I just typed that.

Shouldn't matter even if they do, they'd still win against NU

 

[Hoosiers Rising]

Shouldn't matter even if they do, they'd still win against NU

I know, I just wanted to say it.

 

[Walt542]

Is there a chance that OSU overlooks this week’s opponent looking ahead to IU? Can’t believe I just typed that.

It could be that they overlook NW, but I doubt it. The thing is though that O$U may consider the IU game a must win to get into the CFP. Would a 2 loss O$U be on the bubble? Maybe. I also can’t believe I just typed that😊

 

[TominDallas]

I ran my own, highly sophisticated, simulation...

-IU losing a decent game at OSU
-OSU beating Oregon in B10 champ game
-Georgia winning out
-Ole Miss winning out, including beating Texas in SEC title game
-Bama winning out
-SMU beating Miami in ACC title game
-Colorado beating BYU in B12 title game
-Boise State winning out and getting Group of 5 spot
-Tennessee sliding in to the last at large spot

1 Ohio State... Playing winner of 9 Indiana at 8 Bama in the Rose Bowl
2 Ole Miss... Playing winner of 10 Georgia at 7 Penn State in the Sugar Bowl
3 SMU... Playing winner of 11 Boise State at 6 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl
4 Colorado... Playing the winner of 12 Tennessee at 5 Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl

That is pretty sophisticated. I buy it.