CFP rooting interests and other scenarios

[IndyResident16]

-At this point need Miami to run the table. ACC is a one bid league unless SMU or Clemson win the ACC championship. 1 loss Miami likely gets in with their current ranking

-B12 is almost assuredly a one bid league but BYU running the table ensures it.

-We’re big Georgia fans the next two weeks. Georgia beating Ole Miss this weekend eliminates Rebels from contention and Georgia beating Tennessee the following week would allow the idle Hoosiers to jump the Volunteers assuming we take care of business this weekend.

-Penn St losing to either Washington or Minnesota to end the year likely ensures the Hoosiers are in at 11-1 assuming the one loss is to Ohio State

-Alabama/LSU is an elimination game this weekend. If Bama is is fortunate enough to escape Death Valley with a win, good chance they jump a few teams…IU included

-TAMU must beat Texas last game of the year to have a chance

My gut says the only chance an 11-1 IU team doesn’t get in is if a team like SMU upsets Miami in the ACC championship game and even then the probability IU gets in is still very high

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

-At this point need Miami to run the table. ACC is a one bid league unless SMU or Clemson win the ACC championship. 1 loss Miami likely gets in with their current ranking

-B12 is almost assuredly a one bid league but BYU running the table ensures it.

-We’re big Georgia fans the next two weeks. Georgia beating Ole Miss this weekend eliminates Rebels from contention and Georgia beating Tennessee the following week would allow the idle Hoosiers to jump the Volunteers assuming we take care of business this weekend.

-Penn St losing to either Washington or Minnesota to end the year likely ensures the Hoosiers are in at 11-1 assuming the one loss is to Ohio State

-Alabama/LSU is an elimination game this weekend. If Bama is is fortunate enough to escape Death Valley with a win, good chance they jump a few teams…IU included

-TAMU must beat Texas last game of the year to have a chance

My gut says the only chance an 11-1 IU team doesn’t get in is if a team like SMU upsets Miami in the ACC championship game and even then the probability IU gets in is still very high

You left out ND. Them losing to Army or USC would be beneficial, as it would knock them out. They shouldn't be in to begin with, but that's neither here nor there.

 

[IndyResident16]

You left out ND. Them losing to Army or USC would be beneficial, as it would knock them out. They shouldn't be in to begin with, but that's neither here nor there.

True, any loss to a team rated lower than IU is beneficial at this point. However, I don't see ND losing the rest of this year. And as much as I hate ND, an 11-1 Irish team deserves to get in over a 3 loss SEC team.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

-At this point need Miami to run the table. ACC is a one bid league unless SMU or Clemson win the ACC championship. 1 loss Miami likely gets in with their current ranking

-B12 is almost assuredly a one bid league but BYU running the table ensures it.

-We’re big Georgia fans the next two weeks. Georgia beating Ole Miss this weekend eliminates Rebels from contention and Georgia beating Tennessee the following week would allow the idle Hoosiers to jump the Volunteers assuming we take care of business this weekend.

-Penn St losing to either Washington or Minnesota to end the year likely ensures the Hoosiers are in at 11-1 assuming the one loss is to Ohio State

-Alabama/LSU is an elimination game this weekend. If Bama is is fortunate enough to escape Death Valley with a win, good chance they jump a few teams…IU included

-TAMU must beat Texas last game of the year to have a chance

My gut says the only chance an 11-1 IU team doesn’t get in is if a team like SMU upsets Miami in the ACC championship game and even then the probability IU gets in is still very high

I agree with almost everything, but if we beat UM Sat, we are at a 96% chance to qualify. That assumes a loss at O$U and a win against PU. The 4% chance we don't make it rests squarely on your 1st 2 points regarding upsets in the ACC & B12 championship games. We need them both to be 1 bid leagues.

Also, I do not see a 2 loss Bama jumping an undefeated IU next week. When the dust settles and the final rankings come out, a 10-2 Bama could certainly be ahead of an 11-1 IU, but unless both the ACC & B12 get 2 teams in, IU will be fine. #9 BYU is ranked below #8 IU, and if they finish 12-1 and we are 11-1, I think we'd make it over them. Especially if that loss is to Colorado. Beat UM and PU and we are in basically.

 

[vesuvius13]

The one thing IU can control is win all the remaining games. IU doesn't need other teams to lose and only win out the rest of the season.

 

[IUNorth]

-At this point need Miami to run the table. ACC is a one bid league unless SMU or Clemson win the ACC championship. 1 loss Miami likely gets in with their current ranking

-B12 is almost assuredly a one bid league but BYU running the table ensures it.

-We’re big Georgia fans the next two weeks. Georgia beating Ole Miss this weekend eliminates Rebels from contention and Georgia beating Tennessee the following week would allow the idle Hoosiers to jump the Volunteers assuming we take care of business this weekend.

-Penn St losing to either Washington or Minnesota to end the year likely ensures the Hoosiers are in at 11-1 assuming the one loss is to Ohio State

-Alabama/LSU is an elimination game this weekend. If Bama is is fortunate enough to escape Death Valley with a win, good chance they jump a few teams…IU included

-TAMU must beat Texas last game of the year to have a chance

My gut says the only chance an 11-1 IU team doesn’t get in is if a team like SMU upsets Miami in the ACC championship game and even then the probability IU gets in is still very high

Good points on all of them.

I'd add that unfortunately, IU needs more style points coming home. Both to create more immunity to getting leap frogged by 2 loss SEC teams, and/or a 1 loss BYU if they were to lose in B12 championship game...but then to also improve their seeding.

Namely, we need to be competitive at OSU in a few weeks. If we're sitting at 11-1, with our only game against a ranked team being a blowout loss. That could weigh on the voters minds when comparing against 2 loss teams in the SEC, that would have multiple wins over ranked teams. But if we combine a bunch of dominant wins, with a very good showing in Columbus, that ends up being a loss. I don't see any scenario that ends with IU missing the CFP. Even if Miami and BYU lose in their conf championships, ND runs the table, Georgia loses, and Bama runs the table.

 

[edub72]

A lot of carnage yet to come. Utah could beat BYU this weekend. SEC has several games that will affect the CFP.

 

[jacksback]

It's still nucking futs that we're even having this conversation!