I've always said that either one of the AZ schools would be a better addition than Cal, especially if the B1G adds Stanford. With UCLA and USC and, most likely Stanford too, the B1G has the state covered. With that Cal doesn't add any significant viewers or ad dollars
I prefer AZ St. over U of AZ simply because it has a larger alumni base and it's based in Phoenix....
Adding the #11 TV market ... and one of the fast growing DMAs ... is a look toward the future... Cal, not so much
Looking at Washington---To me, easily the #1 BT fit of the 4 PAC schools left. Public school. Something like 45000 students, including 16000 grad students. Rated as a top 10/top 20 university world-wide by the various evaluators. Not quite as high by US News, which is only undergrad, but still very good (something like #59). #1 among all US public Us in federal research $s. Averages in the mid-60000s in football attendance. Good athletic dept overall, although not quite in the same class there as Stanford & UCLA. Great, scenic stadium. Good rivalry with Oregon. Located in Seattle's large, high-tech market. Only downside I see: something like 1100 miles from LA, 800 miles from SF, 300 miles from Eugene, so people underestimate the distances involved; also, basketball attendance only 7500 or so.
Looking at Stanford---#2 in desirability in my view. Top 5 US news undergrad, top 5 most world-wide ratings overall. #1 athletic program, all sports included, for many years running. Pretty successful in football the last 15 years. Newish stadium, but only seats 50000. SF market is desirable.
I feel like Stanford has huge ups, but pretty significant downs as well, including: smallish enrollment for a BT school---17000, which includes about 8000 undergrads. Football & basketball aren't nearly as much of a big deal as at most BT Us, ala Northwestern. Given mediocre support, do you need Cal as well to 'capture' the SF college football market? Also, Stanford's policy of not allowing 5th years to remain on 'ship will cost them big time......is their football success sustainable given that policy?
Looking at Oregon---Most would have Oregon as #2, but I'd put them as #3. Obviously the highest profile of the PAC 4 schools the last 15 years in football. Phil Knight $. Pretty enthusiastic fan base, Good rivalry with UW. No professional football (or basketball) teams in Oregon, so UO football is a big deal. But.......smallish campus by BT standards, something like 23000 enrollment. How much of their football success is sustainable? Knight is like 85 yrs old---do his kids keep supporting the U? How long do the uniforms keep their magic? Also, the school is mediocre to bad academically by BT standards. #99 US News academically isn't too bad, but grad schools are undistinguished......school rates in the 300s in world university rankings. Smallish football stadium (54000). Also, school is located in Eugene, which is like 100 miles(?) from Portland, which isn't that big a market to begin with.
Looking at Cal---I give great weight to academics, but it's still a sports league. Washington, Stanford & Oregon are simply of higher profile in the sports dept. Cal has never really enjoyed sustained success in football or basketball and their overall program success, in all sports, is way below Stanford, as well as UW(?). They have a ton of NCs in sports like water polo & rowing, but they've been mediocre in the 'minor' sports that some of us do care about, like baseball, softball, soccer, volleyball et al.
And yet.........It's a BT style huge public U with 45000 students, including 14000 grad students....pretty similar to UW in that regard. And I'm pretty sure that if Stanford & Cal are equally successful in football, Cal gets 5000-10000 larger attendance. They've had decent attendance in the past when the team is competitive. They have a bigger (63000) but very old stadium. And a long-standing rivalry with Stanford that gets some national attention. And academically, they're the #1 rated public school in the P5 and in the top 5 nationally & world-wide overall. Can the eggheads running the show leave them out? So......I can talk myself into Cal as #4.
Looking at others: None of the PAC 4 had anything substantial to the BT in terms of men's basketball. There are a couple of possibilities who would---Kansas and Arizona,
AZ is a big ten style U with 45000 attendance in a state where a lot of MWs have retired. Rated #99 (as I recall) in US News, so decent there. Interest in bball and bball attendance is huge in comparison to the PAC 4. Others have pointed out that ASU is bigger and in a bigger TV market, but I don't think the BT gives ASU much consideration given it's academic rating & rep. Football has struggled somewhat, for reasons I don't fully understand. It doesn't look like a top half BT school in football, but I think it can be middle-of-the-pack.
Kansas is the biggest basketball brand available in realignment, and has a national following at this point. That will be a very big deal in the future when the NCAA loses control over March Madness. It has a pretty large sports budget given how bad football has been. I do think the potential is there to get out of the football hole, but it would probably always be a bottom third BT football school. It is the flagship school in the state, but has smallish attendance at about 27000, with a ranking of 124 or so in US News----maybe slightly higher rated than Nebraska. Also a smallish market, obviously. And football has recently been very poor. But, I think KU has enough support in-state that TV ratings would be ok if they can keep from sucking. I do like it as a geographic bridge, and I do think their basketball success is hugely important, even compared to AZ.....especially when we would otherwise be taking in 3 mediocre basketball programs.
And one final school to consider---Colorado. Another potential geographic bridge. Had a pretty good football rivalry with Nebraska back in the day. Doesn't add anything in terms of basketball, but has a pretty fair football history, with good support when competitive. As I recall a pretty large stadium (63000?) in a scenic location. Would be a long but great road trip. 37000 students with a #99 US News ranking--same as Oregon's, but much better grad school rankings. I would definitely be ok with Colorado as the 4th.
I think the BT adds 2 or 4 within a year. I see ND staying independent for at least 10 more years, and probably forever. UW & Oregon if 2. UW, Oregon, Stanford and 1 of Cal/Kansas/AZ/Colorado if 4.
