I'd rather have good weather whether its good for him or not.
Cassidy Hutchinson Endorses Harris
- Thread starter DrHoops
- Start date
I read the entire article, which I’m sure you didn’t. There’s a whole lot of absolutely nothing in it. LOL!
You nominated the worst candidate in GOP history. You can go down with the MAGA ship - SS Trump.
And the Democrats nominated the worst candidate in history.
Who will very likely beat the GOP candidate. Very, very dumb of the GOP primary voters, right?
I’m certainly with you on your second sentence. I’m less certain about your first. Honestly not sure where you’re getting this confidence.
But time will tell.
Since you asked about confidence...The short answer is that I'm confident that the folks who predicted the 2022 (and basically every post Dobbs race since then) have a better grasp on the post Dobbs electorate than the folks who have been wrong about 2022 and nearly every election since then. The composites of both RCP and 538 are fairly decent. But the Dem numbers are negatively skewed by the overwhelming amount of phony polls the GOP pushed in 2022 and are pushing now...
On the other hand 3 very positive polls for Harris came out from A level posters yesterday and they didn't really move the needle and were basically ignored.
For example Marist (A+) put out their final pre 2022 at midnight the day before the 2022 elecvtion when most pollsters were predicing a Red Wave, including the Pubs picking up anywhere from 2-5 Senate seats... They basically nailed not only the winners but also the margins of the major Senate and Gov races in 22 prediciting (Fetterman +6, Kelly +3 Warnock tied, forced a runoff, Shapiro +14, Hobbs +1 amd Kemp +8 in GA).
Everyone else massively underestimated the strength of the Dem candidates, as anyone who witnessed DBM's daily posting of trash polls can attest...Yet everyone is looking at the Fox poll and saying it confirms Trump "momentum". Marist showed Harris +5, up from +2 on their previous poll.so they don't see Trump "momentum".
Pro Harris momentum from both YouGov/Economist and TIPP as well, both A level polls...
And it's not just the best polls, the early voting numbers look very good for Dems as well. Both Philly and Detroit were the key reasons Biden won PA and MI in 2020 and why the Dems dominated those states in 2022 as well. Both normally return a ballots at a % lower than the state as a whole, while still providing a huge number of raw votes. But already both cities are leading their respective states in rate of return for early ballots and are exceeding their 2020 and 2022 numbers.
Spearheaded by Phil and Pitt the Dems are building a massive lead in PA...
None of this is to say Dems have "won". But I wouldn't get sucked in on the Trump "momentum"...The Dems have a far superior grond game to facilitate their GOTV efforts...
Well, I would discount national polls entirely. This race is in 6 states. It’s likely that Harris is going to win the popular vote.
In 2020, Biden won the states he won by a margin of 15M votes. Trump won the states he won by a margin of 8M votes.
In 2016, Clinton won the states she won by a margin of 11.2M votes. Trump won the states he won by a margin of 8.3M votes.
I would assume that these margins will be in the same ballpark this year. They get skewed because the Dems are winning larger blue states (esp. CA, but also NY, MA, IL, MD, and WA) by much larger margins that the GOP is winning the states they win. Texas has 69% as many EVs (38) as California has (55). But Trump's margin of victory in Texas (630K) was just 12% of Biden's margin of victory in California (5.1M).
But since EVs are winner-takes-all (in all but two smaller states), margin of victory in a state doesn't have any direct bearing on the outcome.
Anyway, my point is not that Harris hasn't had some positive polling data -- or that Trump hasn't had any positive polling data. My point is that nobody with a dog in this hunt has much reason to be confident about their candidate winning. To my reading, the data all points to a close election that either candidate could win.
Yes. All of Trump’s staff:
On the way to Trump's vehicle, Meadows told the president that the head of his detail, Bobby Engel, had more information about the trip to the Capitol.
When Trump got into the car, Engel told him they didn't have the assets for the trip and that it wasn't secure. Trump became "irate," Hutchinson said White House deputy chief of staff Tony Ornato recalled to her after she returned to the White House.
Trump said something to the effect of, "I'm the f***ing president, take me up to the Capitol now." After Engel relayed they had to return to the White House, Trump reached up to the front of the vehicle to grab the steering wheel. Engel grabbed the president's arm and said "Sir, you need to let go," Hutchinson recalled. Trump then used his free hand to lunge toward Engel's neck, Ornato reportedly told Hutchinson.
I guess just…all the people who were there isn’t enough evidence for you.
What worthless testimony. Isn’t hearsay testimony almost always thrown out? Why didn’t she out the person that told her? Did that person testify he/she saw the deed? If not why not keep her mouth shut?
She said exactly who told her. Several testified under oath that he wanted to go to the Capitol and SS wouldn’t take him because it wasn’t safe. That’s the relevant part. It’s also in the Smith documents which many apparently refuse to read.
What motive would she have to make shit up? And to testify -- under oath -- about same said made up shit?
She testified about what she was told on that part. It’s no big deal. She also testified about what she personally saw too, but that’s been ignored. A lot of it is in the Smith documents. If Trump loses I’d bet good money on a conviction. He undoubtedly, IMO, deserves it.
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