IU would have to lose out on the road and drop at least two at home to be in danger of missing the tournament. I don't see that happening. I think at the very worst IU goes 9-11 in conference and that potentially hurts seeding, but I just don't see that happening to this team.
Can we start discussing who will be our next coach yet?
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IU would have to lose out on the road and drop at least two at home to be in danger of missing the tournament. I don't see that happening. I think at the very worst IU goes 9-11 in conference and that potentially hurts seeding, but I just don't see that happening to this team.
I don’t share your confidence about protecting home turf to that extent, at least not now. The grind of the season can wear teams out mentally and physically, and I think IU will have to show that they can weather those conditions more effectively than they have the past few years. Not saying they can’t do it, but they haven’t done it yet, and there are still reasons to believe it will an uphill struggle for them. I think they’re like a tournament team, but I think it’s a lower seed than most here would hope for at this point.
I hear you on OSU & Michigan, especially Michigan as its not at all clear that Howard has a clue.
But I really like our chances at PSU. I don't think they are a tough team physically or mentally. Their big guy, Watkins, has had some depression issues, and gives inconsistent effort. Their other center is only 6'8" or so and is unskilled. Their guards are quick, but none can go to the basket like Winston or Cowan. And PSU generally doesn't have the home court crowd advantage that you get at OSU or Michigan.......the atmosphere is usually pretty dead.
I agree Iowa will be difficult. They are not as bad defensively this year. Garza is a load on both boards. And their offense was the third most efficient nationally, the last I knew. Add in their excellent 3 point shooting, which we suck at defending.....could be a long night.
That and we've had some decent success up there the last few years although they have defended their home court fairly well this year against some pretty solid teams. On paper we match up better with Penn State than Ohio State or Michigan but Michigan and Ohio State both seem to be reeling at the current moment.
You can pretty well bank on them losing at least one at home.....Iowa or Wisconsin most likely, Purdue with an outside shot.
I don't see us getting the home calls that Iowa, Purdue, Minnesota, MSU are getting........I don't know if that's lack of respect for Archie, because our crowd/coach are nicer than at those places......don't know the reason, but it's not happening in BT play.
edit....Maybe it's lack of respect for our guards? Watching Winston & Cowen these past two games, it was an automatic foul as soon as they got into the lane. I don't see Phinisee or Al getting those calls, generally, certainly not the touch fouls at the beginning of drives. It seems like Archie is bitching some, but he's not getting anything done.......Crean Factor, as in lack of respect?
I'm not sure I would bank on losing to Iowa or Wisconsin. Maryland was an anomaly hot shooting start from the last minute of yesterday's game being irrelevant. Not saying Iowa or Wisconsin can't come out of the gate shooting 70% on their first 13 three's, but it would be unlikely.
Same thing with Purdue, their road shooting woes are well-documented and I think a game we should beat them going away at home. I think it's more likely we win win Mackey than them in AH.
Yes, I'm not saying that Iowa or Wisconsin or Purdue are automatic losses....just that this team will lose at least one of those 3. Winning all their home games would be over-achieving. Other than in winning single games, when has this team, or this coach, over-achieved in the last 3 tears? It's always been up & down over any stretch of time, and under any circumstances.
As far as Purdue v. IU..........I disagree completely..So both teams are weak mentally.....at which venue does the home team get a higher % of calls? And generally speaking, Purdue's D has been stiffling at Mackey....see the MSU, Villanova & Wisconsin games. And....Purdue's fans take IU-Purdue a lot more seriously than IU fans take Purdue-IU......they'll be loud and nasty and guys like Franklin, Al, Hunter will fold like wet tamales.
I wouldn’t agree at all with your Purdue view. I think we’re more likely get swept than to do the sweeping. JMO.
I wouldn't count either of those games as definite losses. We might lose both but we can also win either or both.
Watched just about every Purdue game. They do play very good defense, however as you mentioned, they are very weak mentally and without any kind of leadership and pretty talent deficient. They got whooped by Illinois at home and lost to a bad Texas team at home already this year. Yes, they could come out guns blazing and blow the lid off early like they did Virginia and MSU, but they've struggled to score consistently all year, even at home.
On the road they have struggled all year and I don't see that changing any time soon. Now do I think we win at Purdue? No. But I think we have a better chance at sweeping them than they do us, and nothing will change my mind on that.
How do you figure? Purdue hasn't shown the ability to beat anybody on the road this year sans a MAC team and have been downright awful on the road in conference play. Purdue is only averaging 55 pts per game on the road in B10 play and that factors in a 78 point output in a 2OT game at Michigan or otherwise that number would be much lower. We ain't getting swept by Purdue this year.
Well, let me ask you......
Which is the tougher team, mentally....IU or Wisconsin?
And Wisconsin had something like 19 points in the FH at Mackey. I'd be very surprised if we don't have between 19 & 30.
That's why they play the game.
Sure........but those crowds will be hostile, and we match up poorly v. both teams.
I will predict one thing right now......Sasha S. will have a career day.
It's two different teams. Wisconsin doesn't have the size or athleticism to overwhelm a team like Purdue, it's why Purdue historically has been the one team to get the best of Wisconsin this last decade. Unless Purdue comes out absolutely blazing from the field, I think it will be an absolute rock fight to the end. Purdue has not shown the ability, home or away, to consistently score the rock this year.
I think you could say the same for IU, and I think their baseline could give us trouble. Not saying either is likely to sweep the other, but I see IU as more susceptible to it.
I’ve been to several games at OSU and they’re not particularly loud. They do get a little louder for IU, but still nothing like Assembly Hall.
I think that is what will happen. I don't bet against IU, as I don't want it to happen. I also don't make internet bets.
PSU & OSU are two nice games for us. I think we'll win at PSU. I don't think we'll win at OSU. First, because this team doesn't often do two good things in a row, especially away from AH. Second, because OSU has to get things turned around sometime and we seem to be a good foil for that. Third, because Holtman seems to have Archie's #, like Archie has Izzo's #.
Three weeks ago I'd probably agree but since then Rob has gotten healthier and more effective, Hunter has gotten more comfortable and is now contributing, Race had his best game yet vs MSU, Franklin seems to have punched through the freshman wall, Green had a solid game vs Maryland after going AWOL and being benched and even Deron is contributing solid minutes.
On top of that Archie has expanded the offense and you're seeing better post feeds, better screening, better curl moves (Sampson made Wilmont a consistent scorer with that curl screen move around the elbow. He's running Durham and others on the same move lately) overall better movement.
Maryland came out insanely on fire out of the gate. I believe their first four possessions got them 12 points. They got up by 14 at one point while we had to deal with losing TJD to foul trouble for the first time all year (and he got his 3rd at the start of the second half).
Three weeks ago we lose this game by 20.
Instead we fought back, got up by 8 in the second half and unfortunately missed a crucial FT, took a bad shot and had an awful turnover that Maryland converted to 8 points in the final minute. Leaving us with a very makable shot at the rim by TJD that he just missed.
I'm other words, we are playing the best we have all year long winning 4 of the last six conference games.
We keep playing around the level we are we're going to win more than we lose going forward.
That's where I'm at as well. This is not the same caliber of Purdue team you've seen the last 3-4 years. They do not have bevy of upperclassmen on the floor nor a go to guy like Carsen or Swanigan who can get you a bucket whenever you want. The defend well and Mackey is a tough place to play no doubt, but they lack any kind of consistent scorer and are streaky at best at home.
It is certainly plausible that Purdue comes out and lights up the scoreboard like they did MSU and Virginia, but they've already lost twice at home this year and it took 2OT and a miracle to beat Minnesota. They struggled for 30 minutes to put Northwestern away at home earlier in the conference season as well.
As for the game at Mackey, it’s a rivalry game. Throw out all the on paper stuff, that’s gonna be a tough game to win.
It's a lock...Billy Donovan is in town and will be named IU's coach.
Sound familiar?
Same experience for me. Sometimes the crowd at the Schott is very quiet for long stretches of their games. They get up for football at OSU but basketball is almost an after thought for them. UD has had louder crowds everytime I've been there.
IU is looking much much better. This was a tough loss but they had it won and blew it late but they’ve been playing very well. If they keep it up they will be fine. Also, if they had Race I believe they win. With Race and Hunter starting to look like good players the rest of this year and at least next now look promising.
Don't forget this roster is an absolute dumpster fire and recruiting dead. This is the worst roster in the past 40 years.
It's sad as hell when Georgia and Memphis will make the tournament before we do because they are bringing in one and dones which is the only way to be successful.
Crean is bringing in Edward's and will easily make the tournament now during his one year of servitude.
I agree. If they keep hitting 9-19 (47.4%) from behind the arc, they'll be fine. That shouldn't be a problem with all the amazing shooters on this team.
Does this mean the new AD will have his hands tied, if hypothetically Archie misses the tourney each of the five years? I'm not sure I can get behind this.
IF Archie didn’t go to the tournament this year or next, he’ll be gone.
Highly unlikely he doesn’t, though.
Archie will get five years, rain or shine. He could miss it this year and next and he’ll still get a fifth season.
I read elsewhere that we'd owe Archie $11.5M if he was fired after year 4....minus whatever he makes during the period of his contract from other sources.
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