Bracketology
- Thread starter BabyHoop
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A new coach that does his job.
The fact that we're forced to discuss things like what it'll take for us to get back on the right side of the bubble, sucks.
But its our current reality...
So...it'll be a fluid thing as the year progresses. Obviously, I think we're probably a couple more Quad 1 or 2 wins away, without any Quad 3 or 4 losses...to getting back on the right side of the bubble. That could happen in the next two weeks, or later in the year.
Collectively...I'd say anything above .500 in the conference, and a win or two in the B10 tournament, probably squeaks us in somehow.
But its our current reality...
So...it'll be a fluid thing as the year progresses. Obviously, I think we're probably a couple more Quad 1 or 2 wins away, without any Quad 3 or 4 losses...to getting back on the right side of the bubble. That could happen in the next two weeks, or later in the year.
Collectively...I'd say anything above .500 in the conference, and a win or two in the B10 tournament, probably squeaks us in somehow.
12-3/3-1 and still outside looking in. Shows you how meaningless our wins have been and how bad our losses have been.
And how much things have changed over time.
Many years ago, an IU team at this point in the season, sitting 12-3 and 3-1 is still probably inside the top 20, possibly top 15 in the polls. In January 2025, we in the 'first 4 out list' and in no one's poll.
example for reference...on Jan 19, 1994, IU sat at 10-3 and 3-1. And was still ranked #8.
The bad losses kill us more than the soft wins.
And how much things have changed over time.
Many years ago, an IU team at this point in the season, sitting 12-3 and 3-1 is still probably inside the top 20, possibly top 15 in the polls. In January 2025, we in the 'first 4 out list' and in no one's poll.
example for reference...on Jan 19, 1994, IU sat at 10-3 and 3-1. And was still ranked #8.
The bad losses kill us more than the soft wins.
IU doesn’t have a single bad loss, all three are Q1. We lack quality wins at the moment. Fortunately for IU, 14 of the remaining 17 games are Q1 opportunities as it stands now.
The Louisville loss was painful to watch. (Well, I left the bar at halftime sensing the outcome). That Louisville and Kentucky have rebuilt with such urgency/effectiveness in just one year certainly is cause for alarm. Being a native of the Louisville region (now an SC transplant) I got a bad feeling when Kelsey was announced as the next UofL coach. Dude's a high-energy winner. Now that he swiped a 5 star (Mikel Brown) from IU, among others, I fear we're going to be hearing a lot about the Cardinals for the foreseeable future. Kentucky, too, for that matter. IU isn't even in the same conversation these days.
I know we love to look at NET and all these other damn data points. But I still go off what my eyes tell me. Been watching college ball for nearly 50 yrs. I know a good loss when I see it.
No way in the world you can convince that what I saw vs Lville or Nebraska were not 'bad losses'. Even our 3 wins in the B1G have some side notes- Minny is awful, Rutgers was without one of the best players in the nation, and PSU was not really a true home game for them, and we were just one more Ballo foul from losing. I'm glad we won at PSU but not gonna fall into the trap that one win means we're back on track. We're without our leading scorer for the foreseeable future and about to start our toughest 30 day stretch of the season. Let's see where the team is after the road trip to Madison. A lot of Q1 games ahead. Can't afford more 'good losses'. Need some 'good wins' which doesn't come as easy to our program as it once did.
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It was no fun to get popped by Louisville or Nebraska, don’t disagree. None of them however, were “bad losses”. Losing to a team like Winthrop or Sam Houston St is considered a bad loss. Plenty of upcoming chances to not only get on the right side of the bubble, but get a favorable seed.
So has “being in the group of first four out” become celebratory under Woodson?
maybe my original point was this-30 yrs ago an IU team that stood 12-3/3-1 at this point in the year, still impressed the pollsters. It doesn't anymore. Part of that is that the press doesn't view IU as they once did. The other part is that 30 yrs ago, those 3 loses wouldn't have been embarrassing blowouts on national TV.
I looked at the updated NET just now. Our schedule is almost embarrassingly soft to this point. Very few Q1/2 games, very few road games. The only 'true' road game was Nebraska and we saw what happened. that's always been the beauty of the B1G schedule....it sorts out and discards the pretenders. We'll see what we truly are very soon.
We had people talking top 10 over the summer, then people saying it was impossible to make the tournament. When the bar is that low, being on the bubble can seem effervescent.
The first half of our schedule was a complete joke this season. Things start to get real on Saturday.
For me its a source of optimism. Indiana can be really, really good, in short order...if their next hire is a good one. The days of needing time to build a successful program, are essentially gone. Everyone is rebuilding rosters, every year. Just be better at it than most, and have a guy that is good at coaching the roster.
Nebraska was a close game until the last 5 minutes. The ending was awful, and it does sour the entire game, but it wasn't the same type of blowout loss that we saw against Louisville or Gonzaga. A couple shots fall, a couple balls bounce our way in that 4-5 minutes to go range, and that game could have gone very differently. Even the Gonzaga game was competitive for longer stretches than some of our bad blowout losses have been in the past.
Its a sad state of affairs when we're arguing how "bad" blowout losses were. But its an important distinction to make, I my opinion. And those distinctions are why we're ranked in the mid 50s, right now, in NET and KenPom...and not 100 or so like last year.
No quad 3/4 losses coming home, win more games than we lose somehow, and we'll be dancing. As you said, tons of resume building win opportunities, and a decent amount of them at home.
I thought two of those three (IA, IL OSU) starting with @Iowa … can’t overlook USC too.
No bad losses..but with today's metrics, i.e. NET, speaking by Q4 teams is just as damaging.
This is where too many of our fanbase is.
I want in the big dance 9 out of 10 years. I want in the final four 1 out of those 10 years. Always win at least two in the big dance with trips to the S16 and E8 becoming normal.
The only way I allow Woodson back this year is a trip to the final four. If he follows up a final four with a complete flop I fire his ass.
We have one quad win until we get to 4 or 5 I wouldn't talk about the tournament. I could see us going 1-5 the next six..
Those 6 games aren’t exactly murderer’s row. 1 ranked team, and that’s at home. USC s/b one of the softest B10 games. Road games are Iowa, NU and OSU. The game at Welsh Ryan will be 50/50 IU fans.
Things get a lot tougher starting 1/31. That’s when we play a bunch of ranked teams in succession.
I don’t have the confidence in a MW coached team to make predictions on the next 6, but it looks to me like a it’s a somewhat favorable stretch of conference games.
Yea, I think we win a few of these as we trend towards 11 wins or something like that. Things are usually not as bad as they seem, we saw that with the win at Penn St. This team still has a lot of talent...
Yeah, plenty of talent. If we play a tight rotation I could see us having a winning record in the next 6.
We should win 2 of the 3 home games, and while the Illini are by far the best of those six teams, it’s a winnable game in AH.
The 3 road games are much more uncertain. I could see 0-3, I could see 3-0. Probably ends up a coin flip between 1-2 and 2-1.
Last night Iowa passed Indiana in the NET, making IU the fourth projected non-tournament team in the BT. 10 of IU's wins out of the 12 are Quad 3 & 4. The weak NC schedule is going to keep biting IU. I think Maryland will have the same problem. The difference between IU and Maryland, is the BT schedule. ESPN BPI hasI IUs remaining schedule the toughest in the BT.
I was talking to an Ohio State football fan and I asked him if the head coaches job was safe. He said that he felt they needed to make it to the championship game or he is fired.
If that is an analogy towards Woodson, I would not bring him back regardless. I would let him leave on a high note and bring in someone else.
Non-con strength of schedule means nothing. We play plenty of good teams in conference, and if we win enough of them, we will get in. If not, we won't.
No one rewards you for playing a bunch of tough teams and losing. Mike Davis proved that a long time ago.
By the end of the season, our strength of schedule will be fine.
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