B1G baseball related questions and answers..(updated: 4/22)

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In the D1Baseball chat today, here were the questions and comments that came up concerning the B1G.

Erik

1. Is Iowa in trouble? 2. Nebraska has looked pretty impressive in the first two weeks, have they not?

Kendall Rogers
1:06
Erik -- I think Iowa will be just fine. The offense looks good and the starting pitching was actually pretty good over the weekend. The bullpen? Not so much. It was brutally bad down in JAX. Fix the bullpen hiccups and Iowa will be what we thought it would be. No 'major' concerns yet. I look at trends -- not just one weekend. As for Nebraska, not remotely surprised it had success against GCU. I wrote this last week, but Nebraska's offensive lineup showed promise at Globe Life opening weekend, and I actually really liked some of the arms the Huskers had as well.

FittsMagic
1:16
How desperately does the B1G need Iowa to win a series in Oxford this weekend? Feels like the season might be over for whichever team loses that one...

Kendall Rogers
1:16
Definitely do not subscribe to the theory that Iowa definitely needs to win that series. It would obviously be very important, but the Big Ten has some real bright spots early this season -- some expected, such as Penn State taking a road series from Stanford. Nebraska has also looked good, and Indiana looks elite thus far. But yes -- that's a huge series for a multitude of reasons.

Greg
1:22
Crazy weekend in Palo Alto. Is it time to push the panic button on Stanford? Will Penn State be a factor in the Big Ten?

Kendall Rogers
1:22
Greg -- We were not very high on Stanford coming into the season for a reason. Though it's still VERY early, the Cardinal lost so many key players and were going to rely on a ton of younger newcomers -- that is just a tough recipe for success. As for Penn State, what Mike Gambino is doing right now is pretty impressive. Give credit to guys like JT Marr, who are off to a sizzling start at the plate. And how about Wake Forest transfer Adam Cecere? He's been a wrecking ball for the Nittany Lions. I've got my eye on them for sure.

Since we play Louisville later in the season, I included this item:

'Gocardsfan
1:50
Are you concerned about Louisville yet?

Kendall Rogers
1:50
I'm definitely concerned about Louisville. The pitching, for the most part, simply has not been up to par. But hey, I'm going to be positive for a second. After getting dominated by Xavier and then losing the opener to St. Bonny -- it would be EASY for the Cards to have a rotten weekend after that. What did they do? Scored 33 runs in two games to win the series. So maybe just maybe the ignition was lit a little bit.

 

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Here are the items from the D1Baseball chat related to the B1G from today (Mar 4th.) There were no items concerning IU.

Greg: Takeaways from this weekend in Oxford? Strike-throwing seems to be a huge problem for Iowa.
Joe Healy: It was a series that it felt like Ole Miss kinda had to have, which is weird to say about a series in early March. Iowa first and foremost has bullpen issues and strike throwing is part of that. It doesn’t feel like there’s anyone they can trust, especially to throw multiple innings. That’s a problem when none of their starting pitchers are known for being super efficient. I don’t want to get overheated about one series, but this felt like progress for the Rebels. Some guys in the lineup started to show signs of heating up and Saunier’s start on Sunday was massive.

Nathan: Is Nebraska now the front runner to win the Big Ten? What do you think about their hosting chances?
Kendall Rogers: Nathan — I don’t think Nebraska is the frontrunner, but it’s in the mix. It’s kind of funny — I saw some NU fans on twitter panicking after weekend one, and I actually came away from Globe Life feeling pretty solid about Will Bolt’s club. There are some impressive bats throughout that lineup and Rob Childress has a lot of solid options on the mound. The Huskers should’ve gone 2-1 that weekend if not for a late OU surge. I’m pretty encouraged but keep an eye on South Al this weekend. Mark Calvi has those guys playing well.

 

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Here are the items concerning the B1G from today's D1Baseball chat (Mar 11.) There are a couple of items that mentioned IU.

CHANDLER: thoughts on Nebraska? Another series win and another come from behind win down multiple runs. Historically Nebraska is a top 20 or 30 team defensively but this year they are surrendering too many errors (eventually going to hurt them I would assume). What is your outlook on the team so far? Tough week coming up with 2 at Wichita St and 3 at home against a decent Nichols team. GBR!
Kendall Rogers: I like the pulse of this Nebraska team a lot. I think I’ve said this a few times over the past few weeks, but I thought it had a solid, balanced lineup to go with some solid pitching depth at Globe Life a couple of weeks ago. That has proven to be the case since that point. Yes, the Huskers had that stinker in the opener against South Al, but ultra-impressed with the way they played the rest of the weekend. Definitely looks like a regional club at this juncture.

Kyle: How dire is the situation for the Iowa Hawkeyes sitting at 7-8? They have a midweek against Georgia this week and a home series against WIU before Big Ten play.
Kendall Rogers: Kyle — Great question. Iowa is a really odd team. I’m a believer in the offense and the starting pitching, but the bullpen has been a hot mess since day one this season. The issue for the Hawkeyes moving forward is they basically have nothing on their resume in non-conference play. That basically means Iowa will need to just dominate the Big Ten schedule for the most part, which seems like a bold ask considering how well a few Big Ten teams are playing right now. Iowa is definitely in trouble at this juncture.

Guest: Is Nebraska in consideration to be ranked?
Aaron Fitt: Certainly — I like that body of work so far, with quality series wins at Grand Canyon, CofC and vs. South Alabama. We just didn’t have any open spots in the rankings this week, but I’d put Nebraska on the short list of teams just outside the Top 25, along with Florida State, Georgia, Northeastern, Virginia Tech, a few others.

MW: Does the Big Ten still run through Maryland? They haven’t seemed to have lost a step under Swope
Aaron Fitt: Heck, maybe so, huh? Iowa was the clear favorite heading into the year but obviously they Hawkeyes have not gotten off to a good start, albeit against a tough schedule. I still like Indiana and Rutgers also, but there’s Maryland at 12-4 with solid series wins at Charlotte and Ga Southern, plus decent wins against Pitt and Georgetown. I certainly don’t think Maryland is as good as it was the last two years, but it does appear the Terps will remain right there in the hunt for the Big Ten title. Plenty of talent on that roster, especially in the position player group.

Hardball Fan: Indiana has sputtered after a nice start down at Coastal. Hoosiers haven’t played well at home, either. What do you make of them?

Likewise, what do you make of Indiana State this season? Very Early RPI has them at 33 and Indiana in the 50s.
Kendall Rogers: The common denominator for Indiana in all of those losses has been very iffy pitching to say the least. That’ll need to improve as Big Ten play nears. As for Indiana State, the Sycamores went on the road a lot in non-conference and played good teams in the process. Thankfully for ISU, it won some of those games. I actually think the Sycs are in a pretty solid spot right now.

 

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There were three B1G related items that came up in the 3/18 chat and two of the items had an IU mention:

CHANDLER: how bout them Huskers? Another series win/sweep against a decent Nicholls team
Aaron Fitt: Nebraska was one of the first teams out of our Top 25 this year, along with Southern Miss and a few others. I really like Nebraska’s body of work — those are quality series wins at GCU, at CofC, vs. South Alabama and now vs. Nicholls, which had been 17-3 entering the week and has a legit Friday night arm. Feels like Nebraska has a chance to wind up being the team to beat in the Big Ten, although I’m not ready to pronounce them the clear favorite. Indiana and Iowa have struggled against very robust early-season schedules, but I think both teams will benefit from all those tests as we get into conference play, and I still think those are probably the two most talented teams in the league. But those two plus Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers (and possibly even this overhauled Penn State club) all feel like legit contenders for regional bids. Patrick Ebert saw the Huskers this weekend and will have plenty more on the site this week.

Terp in NC: In your preseason column on the B1G, you went with just two NCAA tourney entrants: Iowa & Indiana. Have you changed your mind on the numbers and specific teams?
Kendall Rogers: Right now, I’m at about 3 or 4 bids for the Big Ten. I feel pretty solid about Nebraska and Maryland at this juncture, and I do feel like either Iowa or Indiana will be a third team. But the question is on a fourth team? Iowa is so far behind the eight ball from non-conference play, but if it rolled throughout conference, I could see the committee giving them somewhat of a mulligan to some extent for having a very difficult non-conf weekend schedule. I think 4 is your best-case scenario as of TODAY.

The Corn Dude: Nebraska is 13-5 with the #2 SOS. Please explain yourselves for not having them in the top 25 this week with four teams exiting.
Kendall Rogers: Corn — I really like what Nebraska has both in terms of pitching depth and the offensive lineup. I thought the lineup had some impressive balance earlier this year when I saw the Huskers. With that said, if you look at what NU has done on the weekends, I’m not really sure how that’s a slam dunk Top 25 team. In the mix? Sure. Slam dunk? Not remotely. But I do think this is a definite regional-caliber club.

 

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Here are the B1G related items in the 3/25 D1Baseball chat today.

Erik: Has anybody tried unplugging Indiana and plugging them back in? It’s a rough go in Bloomington right now
Kendall Rogers: Erik — It has been mind blowing to see what Indiana was the first couple of weeks, particularly at Coastal, and what the Hoosiers are right now. Outside of a couple of one offs, their pitching staff has been atrocious. I think it was Joe or Roons who said it earlier this year, but they at the time were curious to see how IU would response from losing Luke Sinnard for the year. Obviously not very well. With an RPI in the triple digits, it’s must-win time (already) for the Hoosiers.

Rob S: Where did Nebraska fall this time around for you? And what do you think of their odds in the Big 10 or at an at large this season?
Aaron Fitt: Once again, Nebraska was just right on the cusp of the Top 25, we talked about them at length. It’s just a matter of other teams had louder weekends against better competition, so they jumped over the Huskers. But that team has been very consistent against a solid schedule, we are all impressed with the body of work. And given where they are currently in the top 10 of the RPI, it definitely feels like they’re starting from a position of strength when it comes to earning an at-large bid. I like their chances.

Guest: What is your latest take on the Iowa Hawkeyes, and B1G in general?
Kendall Rogers: Guest — was good to see the Hawkeyes shake off Brecht’s first loss and come back and win the series, but they’ve got to get a lot better across the board to potentially make a run at the tournament. Right now, the postseason contenders for me are Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers with Iowa the other team. Illinois picked up a nice series win over IU this past weekend, but its RPI is well into the triple digits.

 

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There were no items that came up about the B1G today, but here is one item on Chris Lemonis that may be of some interest.

Dudy Noble: Do you think that a 3 seed in a regional should be enough to save Chris Lemonis job?
Kendall Rogers: Dudy — I think Mississippi State making the postseason would and should save Lemonis’ job. Obviously Chris knows they needed to win coming into the season and this team is clearly much better than they were last season. They’re playing at a pretty solid level. I would go another year as long as the Bulldogs make the tourney….

 

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There were just two items brought up about the B1G in today's D1Baseball chat and they both centered around the Huskers. As usual, the SEC seemed to be the primary focus on the items discussed. There were a couple of questions on the RPI with one comparing the RPI used by college baseball as compared to the NET rankings used in college basketball, so I included both items.

Erik: Is…is the Big Ten a one-bid league?
Kendall Rogers: It’s probably Nebraska and that’s it unless someone gets hot or someone wins the Big Ten tournament. Man …on a side note, just took a gander, and Iowa is now seventh in the league with an RPI of 127. That’s just mind-blowing and frankly mystifying.

Andrew H: Does the weekend series loss to Rutgers take Nebraska out of the hosting conversation? Still think they are a tournament team, but not host material anymore.
Kendall Rogers: I do not. Nebraska put together a solid non-conference resume and is still 16 in the RPI. That’s right in the thick of the hosting mix, it just means that there’s a lot less margin for error moving forward, especially with how iffy the rest of the Big Ten is right now.

MK: Is RPI in College Baseball what NET is in College Basketball? Should it be relied on or not is what I am curious to understand?
Joe Healy: It’s a more primitive version of the NET. College basketball actually did away with RPI in favor of the NET. The gripe about the RPI (which I agree with, by the way) is that it’s overly simplistic and takes too few factors into account. It’s also fairly easily manipulated. At this point, there are certain programs that have more or less unlocked the perfect RPI scheduling formula. Kudos to them for that because it’s the metric that the sport uses, but I’ve never liked the idea that scheduling correctly has an outsized level of importance.

Pete: How important is that RPI number as opposed to season records especially with the RPI issues out west? Would a team that wins 32-35 games with a RPI around 45 be more likely to get an at large than a team that wins 40 but has an RPI around 75?
Joe Healy: Yes, with that wide a delta in RPI, the edge would go to the team with 32-35 wins and a 45 RPI. If the RPI delta closes to 45 vs. 50 or 55, maaaaaybe it’s a different conversation. That said, for better or worse, you’re never going to go broke betting on RPI being the determining factor in most field of 64 decisions.

 

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On the 4/22 chat today, there were two B1G related items with one about what IU's needs to do to get an at-large bid. There was another question on the factors considered to become a regional host, something that IU's doesn't need to worry about this season.

Eric Simmons: What is it going to take for Indiana to get an at large bid? I think winning the rest of their series
Kendall Rogers: Long way to go — 77 RPI as a Big Ten. Hoosiers will need to finish the season very strong to have a chance to make the field.

B1G: With the stronger teams not all coming out flames blazin in the big ten race, how do you foresee it playing over the next month+ with Illinois and Michigan near the top?
Aaron Fitt: Great question — and I have no idea what to make of the Big Ten at this point. I’m still not ready to fully buy in on Illinois, and with series left at Maryland and vs. Iowa, we’ll see what the Illini are made of down the stretch. They are 10-2 in the league, and they do have a nice road series win at Indiana, but the last two conference series came against lesser teams in the league. Michigan has a more impressive resumé to me, with series wins vs. Maryland, at Iowa and vs. Ohio State. Wolverines have been pitching a lot better than they did early, and I’m wondering if they might just be the team to beat in the league.

Craig: In addition to RPI, which is an imperfect metric, what other factors does the committee consider when determining hosts?
Aaron Fitt: Conference standings, certainly, are important. I think only one or two teams in the last 20 years have hosted without a winning record in conference play (Mark Etheridge has those exact numbers). They look at nonconference strength of schedule, overall strength of schedule, road record, record vs. Q1 and Q2 opponents, and record down the stretch, say in the final 15 games (even though all of those things are also baked into the RPI). The committee chairmen are fond of saying that it’s more of an art than a science, but they have a bunch of data points to blend together. Unfortunately, too often they wind up just leaning on the RPI as a crutch.