Assad in big trouble
- Thread starter JamieDimonsBalls
- Start date
Once he is gone the various other groups will turn on each other. They will massacre the Alawites and Christians and then all try to consolidate power. Should he go you are most likely left with crazy Islamists in control of most of the country with the Kurds holding their piece (and they are likely a target of Turkey).
The dictators in place in most of the Arab areas are preferable to what is behind them.
If I didn't value my life I would go myself to fight. Sleepy and Trump are both asleep at the wheel.
It's too late to make a deal at this point because he can't abandon Russia and Iran now. Or rather he can't afford for them to abandon him. I would have made a deal to send in troops if he cut them off and sent into exile in Russia. Too late.
And nukes out of Turkey ASAP!
Turkey has beef with the Kurds but apparently ISIS is overrunning the Kurds at the moment.
I don't know if you are aware of this, but the Kurds are actually holding ISIS prisoners. Thousands. A handful of folks there may have been ISIS victims. Try to weed them out and give the rest Tuol Sleng trials ASAP before they manage a prison break.
The Turks need a regime change or a boot from NATO, take your pick.
Not to be a provocateur but perhaps rather we need to leave NATO. It really irked me that Sweden and Finland are essentially free riders. Suddenly Putin made a couple moves and then they wanted to join. I would have demanded a very high price. Talk about poking the Russian bear...
Aren't they two countries who have generally taken their defense seriously and spent accordingly? There are free riders in NATO but I wouldn't point to those two first.
Is neutral a synonym for not joining NATO? Neither were part of the USSR, so they didn't have the recent history that some of the eastern European NATO members had. I don't think either has ever been neutral on the idea of whether they remain sovereign or a Russian puppet state.
They joined because Russia invaded Ukraine. Which seems an entirely rational decision to me.
Yes, that's the free riding part. They were neutral until it was no longer convenient to be neutral. From our side, we now have another land border with Russia to protect. So we are taking on increased risk with what benefit? That's now 6 NATO countries that border Russia. From my perspective, it's understandable why the Russians feel threatened by NATO.
Edit: it's actually 7 as Sweden and Russia share a maritime border. So we've gone from 5 to 7 with the additions.
I generally agree. Especially wrt to Ukraine. I don't think fear of Russia should be the only pre-requisite for NATO admission.
But I also think Russia cares far more about the Baltics and Ukraine than Finland and Sweden.
Pretty wild how quickly the tables have turned. This the result of Ukraine....Russia no longer having the capacity to support Assad in a meaningful enough way?
They fight for entertainment. If it wasn't for fighting they wouldn't have anything to do.
His own army doesn't fight. That's what corruption does to a place. Ergo the Afghan army. The Russians have never been the primary boots on the ground. Hezbollah has no capacity after the spanking they've taken. Iran would need to send their regular army. Why would they when Assad's own troops don't fight? If Iran could even afford to send their own men.
The primary problem lies with Assad's corruption. You can be corrupt but when you are too corrupt this is the result.
You are going to have the Taliban on steroids in Syria. Jordan will be in the crosshairs next.
The Russians probably should have carpet bombed idlib when they had the chance
Yes was going to say Hezbollah, as well can't assist like a few years back.... For obvious reasons. All Iran's proxies are wrecked.
I think too early to say. The Syrian population isn't Afghanistan...
Homs has fallen and there are reports of rebel activity in Damascus itself. This is happening very fast. Assad needs to be on a plane within the next couple of hours or he's losing his head (probably after some very disturbing torture).
Hezbollah has effectively evacuated. Assad has been entirely abandoned. It literally only took two hours for the rebels to finish "liberating" Homs and then start shooting people in Damascus.
Prisons around Damascus have been emptied. Syrian forces have abandoned the airport. Assad and his advisors who stayed can't be found. This war is effectively over.
It's incredible. Happened even faster than Afghanistan.
Guardian confirms rebels have entered Damascus. Barely three hours after they captured Homs.
Syria falls, a loss to Russia and Iran. Iran's partners near Israel are fairing poorly. Russia keeps losing more and more in their war, see below.
Syria is a bit of a wildcard, the victors certainly aren't allies of ours, so we aren't "winning" but Russia and Iran are losing.
www.forbes.com
Syria is a bit of a wildcard, the victors certainly aren't allies of ours, so we aren't "winning" but Russia and Iran are losing.
‘Catastrophic.’ With Mines, Drones, Artillery And Tanks, Ukrainian Troops Wreck 90 Russian Vehicles Across Four Square Miles Of Kursk.
Russia’s long offensive is faltering.
www.forbes.com
There are rumors he actually fled days ago, so he might not have even been on the flight.
Doesn't matter. It's over for him, anyway, dead or alive. Rebels are currently in Damascus proclaiming the end of his regime using his own TV station.
I'd be panicking too. HTS is trying to clean itself up, but if you're not one of them, you're basically watching the Caliphate roll into town.
