Dear Lord. That is one unimpressive sounding guy. Stumbling over words and saying nothing.
Are Trump's beautiful tariffs
- Thread starter snarlcakes
- Start date
Dear Lord. That is one unimpressive sounding guy. Stumbling over words and saying nothing.
What is the average deductible for crop insurance? 25-27%. You do lose that, and then you must absorb higher premiums
Not gonna lie. That sounds like a perfect last meal.
Then he's in the wrong fkn job. Maybe he should have stayed behind the trading screen.
Deer in headlights is all I get from him. He's never been in a position with this kind of visibility, and it shows. Pls he's trying to sell a losing hand.
Also I really question where this confidence is supposed to come from with him? His entire career was built off of a good run with Sosros over two decades ago. Since then he ran two other hedge funds himself, and they both sucked. Doesn't seem like a good #1 guy.
This is going to be a logistical nightmare. So now the de minimis exemption is being whacked too. Shit will be held at customs and small businesses will have to make a payment here to get the shit moving again. How is customs going to all of the sudden process all of those goods. Fing mess
Nope. I want to be either Barbara's best or worst lover and spoke about on occasions. Nobody remembers average.
Customs simply needs to fire 33% of its employees. The ones slowing everyone else down.
Are you saying that they didn't think of what could be all the bad outcomes and how if would effect small businesses?
Yes and no. Ostensibly the idea is that small businesses will stop doing business overseas so that customs/tariffs isn’t an issue
Are you saying that they didn't think of what could be all the bad outcomes and how if would effect small businesses?
Sure, but lets be real about the situation. Small business can't run on the same margins that big business do. There's a reason a lot of small businesses go overseas for product, so when that gets to expensive, what's gonna happen when they raise their prices, which many times, are already at or higher then big business stores.
This could be really bad for small businesses if this goes on for an extended period of time.
Are you saying that they didn't think of what could be all the bad outcomes and how if would effect small businesses?
I only know light manufacturing that’s low skill. There’s no way that’s coming back on a large scale here. It would make much more sense to just target certain industries
Truer words have never been spoken…..
Just out of curiosity, where does China stand on individual freedom? I’ve read about some big brother technology They’ve been sticking into everybody’s cell phones there for example.People are just making shite up.
I seem to be spending half my time debunking made up shit or educating folks here. Beijing should be paying me for this. I would be rich with all the counter-narrative and facts I am offering here.
There is a world outside the US. 95% of the world lives outside the US.
Unless you are telling me $3.2 trillion in cash reserves means one is short of cash reserves.
But they have been buying tonnes of gold the past few years in preparation for a trade war and decoupling. Besides, The US isnt even its largest trading partner. They shifted to the ASEAN trading bloc after Trump 1.0 taught them something.
Trump is severely underestimating the planning and depth of resolve in seeing this thing through. It doesn't plan in a 4-year cycle. Its a 5,000 year civilisation. Trump will barely register as a blip in its history.
And in case you are unaware -- both China and India have been the dominant global economic powers for the best part of 2,000 years, bar the last few hundred years, with the Brits and then the US the past 80-90 years.
They will play the long game. Besides, China's exports to the US today are about 12% of their total exports. That's about 2% of the total GDP.
Its an interesting question you brought up. Its a very big question
Allow me to take a few minutes to explain myself – and in fact, I may actually have to draft this a few times instead of my usual stream of consciousness.
Allow me to have a few points/caveats:
1) I have never lived in China. In fact, you are probably closer to Santiago, Chile, than I am to Beijing at the moment.
I have lived on a few continents and worked across 20+ countries, including developing strategic planning for some of those countries for stockholders in some listed companies too. My adopted home is Singapore, even though I am currently up in Malaysia at the moment. My perspective on things is quite different – I have become quite agnostic and non-judgemental on economic/political systems that aren't naturally mine or to my core beliefs. Alsomakes me a natural devil's advocate.
Why? As long as their governments improve the lives of the people, who cares what system you employ?
Its like me passing judgement on folks not eating pork, like the Muslims or the Jews, or why people drive on one side of the road.
2) Having lived in Singapore for a couple of decades, I noticed a few things when talking to folks who don't live there. There are a lot of cartoonish depictions of Singapore. The media is to blame for this. They seem to see a headline from some fringe point of view and then develop their own article based on just the headlines or perception that they have.
Just yesterday I was watching the business editor of the Times of London talk about Trump's tariffs. The suggestion 'was that the UK needs to pivot and become more like Singapore.'
The guy said, 'Maybe with their more open market approach, but God, not with their 'thin (or little) social contract' with its people.' (As compared with the UK.)
He was implying that Singapore was some libertarian's wet dream with its low tax, open economic markets, etc. He doesnt realise that Singapore has universal healthcare!
It's also supposed to be a 'police state', but I barely see police anywhere. 'People get hung on a daily basis.' (They do have death sentences to traffickers.) I did see two police patrol cars surround a fallen branch after a rainstorm once on one of my bike rides. I was pissed because it was wasting my tax dollars.
It is however, one of the safest countries in the world. Crime is negligible; no shootings to speak of since WW2. Some of the highest GDP per capita in the world. Fantastic infrastructure – schools, roads, mass transit, shipping etc.
Singaporeans also have different value systems from Americans. It's more community driven. In fact, the key objective of the Singaporean government is to ensure social harmony (4 major races & religions are there) and economic prosperity.
They see community prosperity & harmony more important than the individual self (whatever that even means.)
That begs the question – what is individual freedom? A place where you can walk around without being stopped or say what you want without being jailed or deported?
Or in Singapore's view: freedom should be the ability to walk around safely and not feel threatened at 3AM -- man or women. Financially – a right to have a roof over your head, i.e., affordable housing available if you so desire. And healthcare-wise; accessible, affordable healthcare.
That's the minimum individual freedom as far as the Singapore government's role is concerned.
Its different from the US's perspective of what you typically think 'individual freedom' is. Right to bear arms? But why? You outsource that to the government because of wars.
3) Beyond jingoistic slogans and, to be honest, childhood indoctrination, there are always limits to any of the above freedoms. My brother-in-law a few months back was arguing with me that the greatest thing about America is the 1st Amendment – codified laws for freedom of speech. To which my British-trained lawyer here said, so does 120 other countries in the world. So much of this information/indoctrination has been conditioned into our psyche when we were young, and only for us to repeat it like some bot without realising that it's not that unique.
We all need to be more critical and have more self-awareness of these childhood conditionings. Otherwise, we land up being one of the 6% of Americans who think they can fight and beat a grizzly. Its ability versus 'confidence'.
Going back to your question then.
There are 150+million Chinese that travel abroad every year. (3 million of them to the US and $33 billion in spendings annual... or at least until recently.) But of that 150 million, almost all will return home of their own free will. Some will overstay just like some Americans who overstay in Thailand after finding newfound love/lust.
So what does that say about their system? Its like judging your mum's cooking against everyone else's food. They will always fall short since she created the 'standards' that you have grown accustomed to.
BTW, I noticed, in one of my visits there even like 10 years ago, they were sounding more jingoistic, overly confident... like Americans in general. The Chinese have more in common culturally with Americans than, say, Koreans or Japanese for sure. Its always about the Benjamins with the Chinese.
Do you really not understand the difference between individualism and collectivism? Or is that a rhetorical device you were using to excuse Singapore’s poor human rights record?
I think you completely missed my point. But never mind, you be you.
Your point is the same point as every other post you make. It’s not at all nuanced.
The irony of course that you powing around in the indo-pacific most of your life has somehow made you more close minded and ethnocentric than had you just lived in any major urban center in the U.S.
I think some people call it personal growth?
My goal in life isn't to get financially rich. It's more important to me to live an interesting life.
Thanks. I need to be more specific although you may not feel like you are able to answer the question properly.
I’m just wondering about individual freedom to innovate and be creative. It might be a cultural phenomenon or whatever. In other words, children, growing up there, Will they feel the freedom and motivation to be creative geniuses if they have the potential?
And it doesn’t have to be true for everyone, but it does have to be prevalent enough to affect any individual in any walk of life who has the potential genius in him or her.
I think there is a cultural element. I also see china more of a confuscius nation more than a communist one. It's not really centralised economy -- found that out in one of my early trips back even in the late 90s. And with the 2nd highest number of billionaires in the world I doubt if that's a communist characteristic.
It's confusius in that it values discipline and social cohesiveness/order, fillial piety (thus reverence to the parents and indirectly a paternaliatic government structure.)
You can apply this to a number of north Asian nations.
That's why they are great at manufacturing.
As far as being innovative I am not sure a political environmental that edpouses individual freedom is the key element.
Take silicon valley.
It's a lucky confluence of human capital/universities, markets nearby, quality of life and availability of capital all in the same place. Why can't that reproduced elsewhere within the US never mind the rest of the world-- where they have similar political conditions?
A side note: 47% of all AI scientists globally are of Chinese descent. (2022 numbers.) The CEOs of all the critical chip manufacturers are Chinese descent. This would be an interesting study. From Nvidia, Intel to AMD or TSMC.
In China's case -- more structured, disciplined society, they also produced some of the most consequential inventions to help modern mankind. Gunpowder, compass, paper, printing etc.
The Chinese had poured in hundreds of billions into deep science a decade ago -- and we are only seeing the benefits of it starting to trickle through now. They generate 50% of the worlds published research papers -- and thats assuming they translate it into english.
Deepseek, EV, drones are only a prelude. Material science, AI, robotics, renewable energy-fusion energy, advanced manufacturing etc will be next. Now we are moving into an economic development phase which is as inventive as the US or if not more in some sectors. They are testbedding or in some cities smal scale operations of a low altitude economy there right now -- using drones for human transport never mind deliver of goods like uber fr food but between factories etc.
BTW Australia has a higher ranking that the US for political, individual, press freedom etc and yet.. hasn't produced much since Crocodile Dundee.
Look at this list of ranking of freedom indices, we can go through each country as a fun exercise on why each nation works some have not. (I have ignored using thinktanks' indices since they tend to see their results to support their sponsors eg Cato Institute or Feeedom House's index.)
List of freedom indices - Wikipedia
I think in a hyper competitive globalised economy, industrial policies are increasingly getting more critical. You don't have the luxury of time or luck to hope for things yo happen. But instead we are seeing oligopolies forming with the heavy government touch or participation within critical industrial sectors like in AI. Choosen winners. Like with Stargate
With little industrial strategy or policy in play.
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Anybody man enough to start calling their wife "their little tariff"?
Yeah, me neither.
Inside the forced labour factory of Ford CEO's favourite car*:
* he said in an interview that he drives it everyday.
I thought gold would go down under Trump…now I think it’s going to $4000
A quick Google search shows it's not as ridiculous as it sounds
Cool. He's doesn't have to tweet and threaten harm every time he gets a thought in his pea brain.
Someone needs to take away his phone.
