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Are Trump's beautiful tariffs

The problem is the capital account flows to assets in the stock market and homes, which drives inequality and makes both less affordable for the average American wage earner. It's not sustainable long term. You can't build walls high enough to keep everyone out, Crazed.

Believe it or not, most of it flows into Treasuries.
 
Love your perspective. Grew up middle class but one generation from poverty.

Remember as late as the mid 1980s visiting my great grandma outside Olney, IL who did not have indoor plumbing. Had an outhouse and old pumper well. My parents tried to spring for plumbing one Christmas and she said no thanks.

Some of that stuck with me. Still hate to see people blow money on expensive clothes. I'm about ready to kill my kids every time the door dash and buy expensive coffee. A lot of people have it tough but as a nation we blow so much money on junk.
Thought I would add this, @BCCHoosier

My wife's parents were off the grid before it was ever a thing. Only utility they ever had was electric. FIL bought 5 acres from his dad and built his house. 40 years with no mortgage. Wife is an only child.

My wife's grandpa got this property from his family.




Her grandpa raised standard breds for chariot racing.

 
Out of those 100, how many produce actual cars and not glorified golf carts? And of the ones that actually make cars, how many of those would pass European and American standards for safety?

The problem for those who live in the US, and I am seeing this as a clear issue. There is an informational moat vis a vis the rest of teh world that is widening daily. It's shocking.

My sister & BIL were out here last Sept -- and their ''information'' about what's happening in this neck of the woods is shocking. Its so anachronistic. It's like listening to Led Zep and thinking that's what today's music is all about. (That was an example I used for my BIL, who teaches neuroengineering at Columbia.). No small part to the NYT.

I really dont know if it's intentional, so there isnt a bigger outrage:
1) manipulation by the mainstream media or
2) there is a cultural shift that is making people adopt a higher level of hubris (which IMO in business is always extremely dangerous) or
3) It's always been there, but people are looking more inwards as the American Empire starts to fade or nostalgia, harping for the past -- a little like Indiana basketball.

It's slowly sliding into becoming the Disneyland version of North Korea when it comes to global information.

There is a lot of lazy thinking going on:

i) One assumes that the US has a free press and therefore must be objective. The reality is that the US press has been hijacked by corporate America for a decade or two now. And now that it's owned by oligarchs... That's why the US is now 55th in the world (between Belize and Gabon), according to Reporters Without Frontiers. Yet most think its the freest press in the world --- but that's indoctrination, part of the American exceptionalism malarkey.) Yet when I offer a counter-narrative, apparently I am now some brainwashed idiot or a spy -- and I suspect that because of Point #3 above.

ii) At the same time, when it comes to domestic politics, many of you don't believe or trust the mainstream media. They are biased, has an agenda, etc as mentioned above -- and obviously reporting for the other side. Yet at the same time, you will lock, stock believe everything the mainstream media reports on global affairs and especially the nominated adversaries. Cherry picking or

iii) Its lazy argument/debate approach – the other side must be the bad guys or are clearly cheating or evil, which seems to be prevalent. This applies whether to politics or to sports. There is a delusional self-identity that I am the good guy, which I attribute to indoctrination.

''I lost because the other side cheated.'' Not because the other side worked harder or smarter or had the right tools.

So as I had told my siblings and my BIL, there is a new chronic disease (besides diabetes, hypertension, and COPD), you can add: chronic cognitive dissonance.



Now back to cars and EVs specifically --- and the anachronistic perception of stuff outside the US:





 
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The U.S. is 26% of total GDP. If we stopped buying everyone's stuff, they're not going to be able to sell to other countries at current prices. The prediction was beyond stupid.

Beyond stupid? You are displaying a level of ignorance that can only be considered embarrassing in an educated society.
 
Beyond stupid? You are displaying a level of ignorance that can only be considered embarrassing in an educated society.
Where are you from?

I feel the there is a disconnect in Midwestern values and what IU the university used to be.

Bloomington today is an anomaly. It's not my dad's IU, who grew up in Greene County in the 70s.
 
Where are you from?

I feel the there is a disconnect in Midwestern values and what IU the university used to be.

Bloomington today is an anomaly. It's not my dad's IU, who grew up in Greene County in the 70s.

My family's bi-coastal, but I probably have more cousins in the Bay Area than anywhere else. I have lived outside the States for a good 25-30years now. Most of my adult life. I hink it was the ex-wife's idea, but it's been so long I cant remember.
 
Where are you from?

I feel the there is a disconnect in Midwestern values and what IU the university used to be.

Bloomington today is an anomaly. It's not my dad's IU, who grew up in Greene County in the 70s.
Yes Bloomington should have been locked in a time capsule in the seventies while the rest of the world moved on. Maybe put a dome over it
 
My family's bi-coastal, but I probably have more cousins in the Bay Area than anywhere else. I have lived outside the States for a good 25-30years now. Most of my adult life. I hink it was the ex-wife's idea, but it's been so long I cant remember.
Bloomington used to be blue collarish

McRobbie presidency really changed the dynamics.
 
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Without the University Bloomington would be another Bedford.

And to think Notre Dame was originally supposed to be in Montgomery, IN.
Hey my uncle lives in bedford and is a hardcore liberal. He was a teacher before he retired so no shock. Though i never really knew how liberal he was til the last few years. His wife bought a tesla last year. I wonder how they feel about that car now. Lol.
 
The problem for those who live in the US, and I am seeing this as a clear issue. There is an informational moat vis a vis the rest of teh world that is widening daily. It's shocking.

My sister & BIL were out here last Sept -- and their ''information'' about what's happening in this neck of the woods is shocking. Its so anachronistic. It's like listening to Led Zep and thinking that's what today's music is all about. (That was an example I used for my BIL, who teaches neuroengineering at Columbia.). No small part to the NYT.

I really dont know if it's intentional, so there isnt a bigger outrage:
1) manipulation by the mainstream media or
2) there is a cultural shift that is making people adopt a higher level of hubris (which IMO in business is always extremely dangerous) or
3) It's always been there, but people are looking more inwards as the American Empire starts to fade or nostalgia, harping for the past -- a little like Indiana basketball.

It's slowly sliding into becoming the Disneyland version of North Korea when it comes to global information.

There is a lot of lazy thinking going on:

i) One assumes that the US has a free press and therefore must be objective. The reality is that the US press has been hijacked by corporate America for a decade or two now. And now that it's owned by oligarchs... That's why the US is now 55th in the world (between Belize and Gabon), according to Reporters Without Frontiers. Yet most think its the freest press in the world --- but that's indoctrination, part of the American exceptionalism malarkey.) Yet when I offer a counter-narrative, apparently I am now some brainwashed idiot or a spy -- and I suspect that because of Point #3 above.

ii) At the same time, when it comes to domestic politics, many of you don't believe or trust the mainstream media. They are biased, has an agenda, etc as mentioned above -- and obviously reporting for the other side. Yet at the same time, you will lock, stock believe everything the mainstream media reports on global affairs and especially the nominated adversaries. Cherry picking or

iii) Its lazy argument/debate approach – the other side must be the bad guys or are clearly cheating or evil, which seems to be prevalent. This applies whether to politics or to sports. There is a delusional self-identity that I am the good guy, which I attribute to indoctrination.

''I lost because the other side cheated.'' Not because the other side worked harder or smarter or had the right tools.

So as I had told my siblings and my BIL, there is a new chronic disease (besides diabetes, hypertension, and COPD), you can add: chronic cognitive dissonance.



Now back to cars and EVs specifically --- and the anachronistic perception of stuff outside the US:








For those who want to look at a global perspective of industries of the future:
https://www.aspi.org.au/report/aspis-two-decade-critical-technology-tracker

ASPI’s two-decade Critical Technology Tracker



covering 64 critical technologies and crucial fields spanning defence, space, energy, the environment, artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, robotics, cyber, computing, advanced materials and key quantum technology areas, the Tech Tracker’s dataset has been expanded and updated from five years of data (previously, 2018–2022)2 to 21 years of data (2003–2023).3

These new results reveal the stunning shift in research leadership over the past two decades towards large economies in the Indo-Pacific, led by China’s exceptional gains. The US led in 60 of 64 technologies in the five years from 2003 to 2007, but in the most recent five years (2019–2023) is leading in seven. China led in just three of 64 technologies in 2003–20074 but is now the lead country in 57 of 64 technologies in 2019–2023, increasing its lead from our rankings last year (2018–2022), where it was leading in 52 technologies.

China produces 1.6 million STEM graduates annually -- as opposed to 450k in the US. (And really how many are actually americans?) There is bound to be an engineering bonus at some point.

This is why I don't actually think or believe this tariff malarkey is actually for re-industrialisation of the US:

1) Firstly, tariffs alone doesnt work. You can expect to get things done with just a stick. Where is the carrot?
2) For any investor, you need visibility and predictability. The Trump approach is anything but that.
3) To build a factory, it will take more than a few years. Developing a business case to have domestic production as opposed to buying abroad. You need to consider the location, supply chain, regulations etc. How many years is that? My own experience to building things out of China -- I used to get them to assemble, and I would source the individual components myself. (Arms & legs work there.) That was in the mid-90s. But by the late 2000s, all I had to do was tell them the options of designs I preferred and the performance specification I expected and they did the rest. Also like going to McDonald's. The supply chain is critical --- and it would take a decade to develop if it had to be started from scratch domestically. From raw materials to semi-finished goods.
4) Human capital. WTF are they going to come from? The schools arent geared up for that. Both technical schools and universities who are more interested in churning out lawyers and financial wizards than engineers.
5) All of the above requires long-term vision. An industrial policy that is consistent and not get reverted every four years. The Made in China industrial policy started in 2015. Thats a shift from a financial model which they had adopted from the US -- real estate driven. But they have undergone a massive shift into a high tech manufacturing strategy due to some of the weaknesses they had seen in the US financialised model. There has to be massive government grants and subsidies.
6) The US economy is a financialised model. Jack Welch and GE are emblematic of the US economy of today. I still remember the days of how Jack Welch was considered the Mount Rushmore of Corporate America. How successful and profitable they were, with GE Caps making more money than the rest. Today, it's been hollowed out as an global world-class engineering company and just recently was broken up into 3 main domain areas only.
IMO so much of it started back in the 70s with CEOs first getting stock options and then later PEs or active owners wanting quarterly results and less spending on R&D.

So unless there are roll-backs on tax laws that seem to benefit the financialisation of the econony -- and more to incentivise manufacturing –- tariffs just aren't enough.

I am assuming Trump isn't dumb. His superpowers are self-enrichment and rebounding from the depths of bankruptcy.

My guess is that he will do two things:

1) Intentionally crash the economy – he can short the market and, together with his billionaire friends, buy up distressed assets on the cheap.
2) Virtue signal and eliminate the income tax – highlighting the elimination of income tax for those in the middle & lower middle classes whilst claiming that tariffs will make up for the shortfall. The numbers being touted by the WH claim to be $600 billion, but others on Wall Street are saying that it will certainly be less than half of what's projected. Besides, tariffs are a form of regressive taxation.

Meanwhile, the tax reduction for the super-rich will be rolled over.
 
Here’s why Trump 2.0 will not be a fatal blow to international trade.

First, the importance of the US to global trade can be overstated, since it is the world’s largest economy. America accounts for just 13 per cent of global goods imports — down from close to one-fifth two decades ago. That makes it the largest importer and a notable influence on trade patterns, but not sufficient to reverse globalisation on its own.

Simon Evenett, professor at the IMD Business School, recently ran a helpful thought experiment. He found that even if the US cut off all goods imports, 70 of its trading partners would fully make up their lost sales to the US within one year, and 115 would do so within five years, assuming they maintained their current export growth rates to other markets.

The US isn’t the main driver of global trade growth. Europe — and more recently China — are bigger contributors. And both economic powers are likely to continue advocating for free trade, according to recent analysis by Mallika Sachdeva, a strategist at Deutsche Bank Research.

I forgot to mention. The Chinese can always turn into their own domestic market. Its very untapped to make up for any loss into the US market.

The average savings rate of the Chinese: 44.4% (in 2023) – as opposed to the US savings rate of 3.4% of GDP. The US market is tapped out.

By exercising these tariffs, there will be retaliation.

And as a result, the chances of American companies selling their goods to extract some of that 44.4% savings will take a hit.

This tariff strategy is really a self-inflicted and possibly mortal injury for the US economy.
 
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I forgot to mention. The Chinese can always turn into their own domestic market. Its very untapped to make up for any loss into the US market.

The average savings rate of the Chinese: 44.4% (in 2023) – as opposed to the US savings rate of 3.4% of GDP. The US market is tapped out.

By exercising these tariffs, there will be retaliation.

And as a result, the chances of American companies selling their goods to extract some of that 44.4% savings will take a hit.

This tariff strategy is really a self-inflicted and possibly mortal injury for the US economy.
Lets revisit this in six months and sees if trump is the idiot most liberals hope he is cause they do want it to fail no question. Even if it works the trump hate wont stop. Cause like you mention you think he is moron and the chinese are so much smarter and you are rooting for them vs our moron.
 
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Lets revisit this in six months and sees if trump is the idiot most liberals hope he is cause they do want it to fail no question. Even if it works the trump hate wont stop. Cause like you mention you think he is moron and the chinese are so much smarter and you are rooting for them vs our moron.
It's ironic that you accuse the 'liberals', the other side, of wanting Trump to fail. Yet you accuse me of rooting for the Chinese just because I throw in some facts and numbers.

As I posted earlier, 'debates' here are all about defending your 'side'; not about issues and facts.

Why not try defending facts or numbers? Otherwise, the theme of any discussion will get rather monotonous.
 
It's ironic that you accuse the 'liberals', the other side, of wanting Trump to fail. Yet you accuse me of rooting for the Chinese just because I throw in some facts and numbers.

As I posted earlier, 'debates' here are all about defending your 'side'; not about issues and facts.

Why not try defending facts or numbers? Otherwise, the theme of any discussion will get rather monotonous.
Maybe not you my bad but others on here no doubt want him to fail. I was just making a general comment but it was under your post so my bad,
 
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Maybe not you my bad but others on here no doubt want him to fail. I was just making a general comment but it was under your post so my bad,

Honest I have respect for him in a cynical way -- he has his superpowers. I also defended why he won against my siblings. The gaslighting of bidenomics by kamala.

One of them went as far as to say I was deluded and had no clue what was going on. And thought i had gone full maga. That was before the elections.

You can imagine how smug I feel now.

I just don't think this tariff strategy will work. He is smart enough to figure that out. So it's his ulterior motives which is what I have an issue with.
 
I do. I'd love to have China and Russia holding all the bitcoin when it finally crashes and burns.
Like gold in electronics, Bitcoin has other uses. You can disassemble a Bitcoin and sell the ones and zeros when we hit a shortage of those two numbers.

Without those precious bits it makes about as much sense as buying Enron or Bernie Madoff.
 
others on here no doubt want him to fail.

What does wanting him to fail mean? Because it can mean different things.

I think some of his policies are bad ideas that are destined to make things worse for the country. Given that, I don’t want them in place. I want beneficial policies in place, not harmful ones.

Does that count as wanting him to fail? If so, then I’m guilty as charged.
 
Yeah, they seem to have calculated these based on a formula using trade deficits.

Honestly, I wouldn't have any issue with a targeted and concerted effort to lower foreign tariffs by pegging our rates to theirs. It couldn't be done on a good-by-good basis....as it will always be the case that some countries are better than others at producing X, Y, or Z. And any trade policy that doesn't recognize this would be foolish.

And it couldn't really be done on a dollar-for-dollar basis either. Because we are always going to be running trade deficits with some countries -- for good reason.

But they could be pegged on a %GDP by %GDP basis. If Country X sets a 75% baseline import tariff on a good that either represents ~0.1% of our GDP or ~0.1% of our exports, then we'd set a 75% tariff on a good of roughly equal relative value to them.

I think doing this would cause tariffs to come down all over the globe.
I thought this is what they were going to do. Devil is always in the details though and based on my (small in scale) experience with this administration, we aren't dealing with details people.
 
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Thought I would add this, @BCCHoosier

My wife's parents were off the grid before it was ever a thing. Only utility they ever had was electric. FIL bought 5 acres from his dad and built his house. 40 years with no mortgage. Wife is an only child.

My wife's grandpa got this property from his family.




Her grandpa raised standard breds for chariot racing.

Real neat. What did the family do with that property?
 
What does wanting him to fail mean? Because it can mean different things.

I think some of his policies are bad ideas that are destined to make things worse for the country. Given that, I don’t want them in place. I want beneficial policies in place, not harmful ones.

Does that count as wanting him to fail? If so, then I’m guilty as charged.

I don't agree with a lot of what he does, but he's the president of our nation, so I of course want him to do well for our country because that means our people are doing well, party be damned.
 
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I still like big Pharma and am hopeful the new administration will help the biotech sector by cutting red tape. Utilities probably not a bad play.

I know you didn't ask me, but have loved investing since the 90s. 😁
I’ll loop you in. My expertise is investing in businesses run by friends with little hope of success
 
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