I try not to bet Indiana - for or against.... too emotional for me....
However, if I did bet, I would pick them with the 16.5 points today, and here's why:
After IU came from behind to beat Illinois, I told a buddy of mine (a huge IU fan):
"Hey, maybe IU is good ! They beat a good Illinois team."
His response: "No, Illinois sucks."
Me: "Well they beat Wyoming 38-6"
Him: "Wyoming sucks."
A week or so later I said: "Well Wyo just beat Air Force !" Him: "AF sucks."
It was the usual attitude among long-time iU football fans: if IU beats somebody, it probably is because the other team "sucks". Hard to overcome all the cynicism built up after years of watching IU football.
But, so I decided to look at the records so far of teams IU has beaten, and here's what I found out:
Illinois:
1. The illini have beaten everybody they played except IU.
2. They beat Wyo 38-6 & Wyo beat AF for AF's only loss. Wyo won all their games except Ill.
3.Beat UVa 24-3 & UVa HAD beaten everyone else until last night, when they lost 22-20 AT Syracuse after missing 2 FGs & having an extra point blocked (and Syra has beaten everyone THEY played, including Purdue & Louisville)
Idaho: IU had to come from behind in the rain after trailing 10-0 at half (with two missed FGs) to win, but:
1. Idaho beat everyone on their schedule besides IU except for Wash St., who beat them barely at Pullman 24-17
2. Wash St beat #19 Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium. Let me repeat that: The WSU Cougars defeated Wisky AT CAMP RANDALL ! (So Idaho losing to them by 7 on the road is not so bad...)
Western KY: OK, IU had almost a miracle win against these guys, but:
1. WKy beat everyone else but IU handily. (Not great competition, but...🤷♂️)
Meanwhile, Cincy lost to Arkansas, who last week struggled to beat Missouri State.
OK - I get it - too few data points to draw any real conclusions.
But I guess my point is, in power ratings they have to start with assumptions with given teams, say: Illinois.
If you start with the assumption that the Illini are mediocre-to-bad, then beating them doesn't mean much. However, since they have beaten EVERYBODY but Indiana (& IU beat OTHER teams to give them their only loss), MAYBE it just is that Indiana is GOOD !!?!!
We don't know, but I say take IU & the points. 👍🎈
However, if I did bet, I would pick them with the 16.5 points today, and here's why:
After IU came from behind to beat Illinois, I told a buddy of mine (a huge IU fan):
"Hey, maybe IU is good ! They beat a good Illinois team."
His response: "No, Illinois sucks."
Me: "Well they beat Wyoming 38-6"
Him: "Wyoming sucks."
A week or so later I said: "Well Wyo just beat Air Force !" Him: "AF sucks."
It was the usual attitude among long-time iU football fans: if IU beats somebody, it probably is because the other team "sucks". Hard to overcome all the cynicism built up after years of watching IU football.
But, so I decided to look at the records so far of teams IU has beaten, and here's what I found out:
Illinois:
1. The illini have beaten everybody they played except IU.
2. They beat Wyo 38-6 & Wyo beat AF for AF's only loss. Wyo won all their games except Ill.
3.Beat UVa 24-3 & UVa HAD beaten everyone else until last night, when they lost 22-20 AT Syracuse after missing 2 FGs & having an extra point blocked (and Syra has beaten everyone THEY played, including Purdue & Louisville)
Idaho: IU had to come from behind in the rain after trailing 10-0 at half (with two missed FGs) to win, but:
1. Idaho beat everyone on their schedule besides IU except for Wash St., who beat them barely at Pullman 24-17
2. Wash St beat #19 Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium. Let me repeat that: The WSU Cougars defeated Wisky AT CAMP RANDALL ! (So Idaho losing to them by 7 on the road is not so bad...)
Western KY: OK, IU had almost a miracle win against these guys, but:
1. WKy beat everyone else but IU handily. (Not great competition, but...🤷♂️)
Meanwhile, Cincy lost to Arkansas, who last week struggled to beat Missouri State.
OK - I get it - too few data points to draw any real conclusions.
But I guess my point is, in power ratings they have to start with assumptions with given teams, say: Illinois.
If you start with the assumption that the Illini are mediocre-to-bad, then beating them doesn't mean much. However, since they have beaten EVERYBODY but Indiana (& IU beat OTHER teams to give them their only loss), MAYBE it just is that Indiana is GOOD !!?!!
We don't know, but I say take IU & the points. 👍🎈
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