American Embassy Iraq

[Spartans9312]

‘When you cut his head off, that’s war’: Spies and diplomats warn of unpredictable consequences after US kills top Iran general
Killing him risks an escalation that the US didn’t count on, and that is how big wars start, said a former US official

The US assassination of one of Iran’s top security officials early on Friday could mean “war” with the Islamic Republic and unpredictable consequences, warned a former US intelligence officer and diplomats with expertise in the Middle East.

US officials insist the killing was a defensive measure meant to save American lives and did not signal a war. Secretary of state Mike Pompeo told US television outlets that Washington was not seeking an escalation.

But Iran is unlikely to see it that way, and the US will have to prepare for responses and consequences of an unpredictable, costly and potentially consuming conflict with the Islamic Republic.

“It’s war,” said a former US intelligence officer who has worked on Iraq and Iran. “It was always somewhat of a war but when you cut his head off, that’s war. There’s no other way around it.”

He spoke on condition of anonymity because he continues to work on sensitive security matters.

Diplomats and Middle East observers across the globe were stunned by the assassination, as leaders in major capitals conferred on whether the US killing amounted to the opening of a new chapter in one of the world’s most volatile regions.

“The world cannot afford another Gulf war,” Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary-general, said.

Many worry it is already too late.

“We are now directly engaged in a conflict with the Iranian state,” said Dalia Dassa Kaye, director of the Middle East programme at the Rand Corporation, a research firm partly funded by the US government. “This is not just through proxies; this isn’t sanctions. This significantly increases the risk.”

Iran and the US have been locked in confrontation for 40 years, though tensions cooled as both countries found themselves facing the threat of Isis in Iraq.

The latest round of escalation began after the administration of Donald Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal forged by his predecessor and launched a campaign of “maximum pressure” targeting Iran’s economy. Washington has accused Iran of being behind a stepped-up campaign of harassment and sabotage targeting American interests. It launched airstrikes on an Iranian-allied militia on Sunday in response to a barrage of rockets that struck a base in northern Iraq, killing one American contractor.

Next came the attack on Tuesday on the US embassy in Baghdad by Iraqi militiamen loyal to Iran. No American was hurt, but protesters set the facility on fire, angering US officials who had promised a day earlier that the airstrikes on Sunday had “deterred” Iran.

The US killed Qassem Soleimani after he arrived on a plane in Baghdad and while in the company of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a leader of pro-Iranian Shia militiamen.

Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, its president Hassan Rouhani and a slew of other officials vowed “vengeance” for the slaying of Soleimani, but did not hint at any specific actions.

“US needs to know that the criminal attack on General Soleimani is its biggest strategic mistake in west Asia, and that the US will not easily escape the consequences of this miscalculation,” said a statement issued by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

US officials have for years considered killing him, but have refrained for fear that the potential costs would outweigh the benefits.

Soleimani had long been acting with increasing impunity throughout Iraq and Syria in recent years, posting photographs of himself posing at battlefronts. One western diplomat described the killing as “quite a bold move” that “sends a message to [Iran’s] system” that the old rules of engagement no longer apply.

Still, despite his high profile, Soleimani was no swashbuckling freelancer like Osama bin Laden or guerilla leaders of the past, but an official of a government with a bureaucracy and a budget; take him out and the Iranians could replace him, which they did within hours, and continue any of his projects. Soleimani is also considered a senior Iranian official as well as a close friend of Mr Khamenei.

What are we trying to achieve here? What’s the end game?
Dalia Dassa Kaye, director of the Middle East programme at the Rand Corporation

“The Quds force is a state organisation,” said the former US intelligence official. “They are part of a formal military service. They have a government and economy backing them. Is America ready to deal with that?”

Killing him risks an escalation that the US didn’t count on, and that is how big wars start, said a former US official.

“What nations know how to do is reciprocity,” said Richard Stengel, a former State Department official. “The Iranians will not see this as reciprocal. They will see this as a massively, exponentially disproportionate response which is not reciprocal or commensurate with what they’ve done.”

Mr Trump’s bluster about the killing and the open way it was conducted almost forces Iran to act.

Possible venues in which Tehran could respond to Washington include Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, where Iran holds significant sway and controls assets. The Islamic Republic could also launch renewed attacks against the US’s Middle East partners, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel.

Iran has already upped the pressure on its allies in Baghdad to boot US forces from the country, which it already appears inclined to do.

Iran also has cyber capabilities which it has refined in the years since the US and Israel attacked its nuclear programme with the infamous Stuxnet virus.

“They’re going to attack US interests and people,” said the former US intelligence official. “It’s not always soldiers and diplomats. There are large companies, American interests and people that can be touched. This is an old-world fight. There has to be a response or responses.”

Next week, Iran is also set to announce its pullback from the nuclear deal, which it has been chipping away at for months in incremental steps to punish western nations for abiding by US sanctions. “We have a decision due next week on whether Iran will continue to talk back from its commitments,” said Ms Kaye. “I would expect Iran to escalate its nuclear programme.”

The more important question, though, maybe what the US will do after the Iranian response, and whether the US is prepared to respond to the next Iranian escalation. “What are we trying to achieve here? What’s the end game?” said Ms Kaye.

It’s unclear whether the Trump administration has thought about all of the implications of the attack, and what it means for US security policy.

“Now that we’ve made this move, we have to make counterterrorism steps and prepare for any state acts,” said the former US intelligence official.

Ms Kaye speculated that the administration was beginning to believe its own rhetoric that the regime in Tehran was on the verge of collapse due to the US sanctions, and it was convinced by hardliners in Washington that taking out Soleimani would deliver a knockout blow, or at least not cost too much.

“What worries me is the question whether the Trump administration has gone through all the possibilities, probabilities and possible outcomes and done a cost-benefit analysis,” said Mr Stengel, author of a book called Information Wars, about disinformation campaigns. “I hope they have. Everything I’ve read is that the whole national security process is broken.”

For Iranian influence to be constrained we have to show that we are not afraid to do what it takes to impose our will.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

China is a much larger strategic threat to the United States than Iran. But they are also much more powerful and so we are deterred from taking them on militarily. It is that Iran is relatively small that makes it an enemy that we might consider fighting. Strategically Iran would be wise to push forward their nuclear program as quickly as possible don't you think? It would be a very good time for them to partner with Russia too.

Strategic threat =/= physical threat

 

[CO. Hoosier]

You like that "clown car" term don't you? It's almost as if you're purposely regurgitating it at the behest of someone. We all get it - you think the Dems are one big clown car. Cool story bro.

Left-wing septuagenarians who think running POTUS is the modern form of social protest are clowns.

Left-wingers who claim to love America with one breath and want to fundamentally change America with the next breath are clowns.

Left-wingers who want to impose cultural changes on everyone but themselves and those who reside in their left-wing bubbles are clowns.

Left-wingers who can only belittle and make fun of those who live, believe, and vote differently than they do are clowns.

Left-wingers who intend to destroy the jobs of millions of people while telling them to “learn to code” are clowns.

When those left wingers are together on a debate stage, they are in a clown car.

 

[zeke4ahs]

Left-wing septuagenarians who think running POTUS is the modern form of social protest are clowns.

Left-wingers who claim to love America with one breath and want to fundamentally change America with the next breath are clowns.

Left-wingers who want to impose cultural changes on everyone but themselves and those who reside in their left-wing bubbles are clowns.

Left-wingers who can only belittle and make fun of those who live, believe, and vote differently than they do are clowns.

Left-wingers who intend to destroy the jobs of millions of people while telling them to “learn to code” are clowns.

When those left wingers are together on a debate stage, they are in a clown car.

Donald Trump is a clown and so is anyone who supports him. Period.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Sure. Keep telling yourself that.

I will. Keep up with your empathy scam as your political heroes advocate destroying the lives of millions of hardworking people who end up as suicide statistics, addiction statistics, or in tents. Maybe you can tell them to learn to code.

 

[sglowrider]

For Iranian influence to be constrained we have to show that we are not afraid to do what it takes to impose our will.

I agree but it has to be proportional.

But this is a major ecalation... Which you know the Iranians will have to respond in kind proportionally especially when you just killed their 2nd or 3rd most important guy in the country.... Then brag about it!!

Then how will Trump response? What options does he have then? Nuke? Or offer to build a Trump Hotel in Tehran?

Checkers versus chess.

Case in point:
‘Iran will be hit very fast and very hard’: Trump says US ‘targeting’ 52 sites if Tehran retaliates to Soleimani killing
‘Iran is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets as revenge for our ridding the world of their terrorist leader,’ says US president

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Donald Trump is a clown and so is anyone who supports him. Period.

But even bigger clowns are sheeple who's hatred for trump is greater than their hatred for a mass murdering terrorist thus wanting the US to fail in ending him.

Difficult to imagine...but they do exist

 

[sglowrider]

But even bigger clowns are sheeple who's hatred for trump is greater than their hatred for a mass murdering terrorist thus wanting the US to fail in ending him.

Difficult to imagine...but they do exist

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Left-wing septuagenarians who think running POTUS is the modern form of social protest are clowns.

Left-wingers who claim to love America with one breath and want to fundamentally change America with the next breath are clowns.

Left-wingers who want to impose cultural changes on everyone but themselves and those who reside in their left-wing bubbles are clowns.

Left-wingers who can only belittle and make fun of those who live, believe, and vote differently than they do are clowns.

Left-wingers who intend to destroy the jobs of millions of people while telling them to “learn to code” are clowns.

When those left wingers are together on a debate stage, they are in a clown car.

You've become a caricature of yourself.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

I know...amazing right?

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Left-wing septuagenarians who think running POTUS is the modern form of social protest are clowns.

Left-wingers who claim to love America with one breath and want to fundamentally change America with the next breath are clowns.

Left-wingers who want to impose cultural changes on everyone but themselves and those who reside in their left-wing bubbles are clowns.

Left-wingers who can only belittle and make fun of those who live, believe, and vote differently than they do are clowns.

Left-wingers who intend to destroy the jobs of millions of people while telling them to “learn to code” are clowns.

When those left wingers are together on a debate stage, they are in a clown car.

This is stupid. It’s like you’ve pasted this directly from Facebook.

 

[UncleMark]

This is stupid. It’s like you’ve pasted this directly from Facebook.

Substitute Right for Left throughout. It reads the same.

 

[Cream&Crimson]

Left-wing septuagenarians who think running POTUS is the modern form of social protest are clowns.

Left-wingers who claim to love America with one breath and want to fundamentally change America with the next breath are clowns.

Left-wingers who want to impose cultural changes on everyone but themselves and those who reside in their left-wing bubbles are clowns.

Left-wingers who can only belittle and make fun of those who live, believe, and vote differently than they do are clowns.

Left-wingers who intend to destroy the jobs of millions of people while telling them to “learn to code” are clowns.

When those left wingers are together on a debate stage, they are in a clown car.

This post is laughable. Most of your examples above you could simply substitute "right" for "left" and the statement would be accurate.

Edit: to add, You have proven, especially over this past couple of days, to be nothing more than a partisan GOP hack. You're as lost as VPM.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

This is stupid. It’s like you’ve pasted this directly from Facebook.

Yeah, this is stupid. Medicare for all; or not, or maybe; wealth tax; fracking ban; immediate health care for illegal immigrants; no meaningful border controls; decriminalize illegal border crossings; decriminalize most property crimes; no cash bail; pack SCOTUS; eliminate the electoral college; exclude offensive speech from first amendment protection; and worse is too stupid to be a clown show. It’s a shit show.

 

[Cream&Crimson]

You've become a caricature of yourself.

It's true. He's jumped the shark.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

This post is laughable. Most of your examples above you could simply substitute "right" for "left" and the statement would be accurate.

Edit: to add, You have proven, especially over this past couple of days, to be nothing more than a partisan GOP hack. You're as lost as VPM.

Why don’t you make that substitution case? I don’t think you can.

The Dems should be way ahead. Instead we learn that Schiff is a lying conniving dumbass, the squad + idiots steamroll the house, and the leading Democrat POTUS candidates all want to put a dagger in the heart of the economy. The Dems aren’t interested in a reasonable candidate. Chairman Nadler was spot on when he said impeachment was all about the 2020 election. Because of the clown show the Dems have no other way.

 

[Cream&Crimson]

Why don’t you make that substitution case? I don’t think you can.

The Dems should be way ahead. Instead we learn that Schiff is a lying conniving dumbass, the squad + idiots steamroll the house, and the leading Democrat POTUS candidates all want to put a dagger in the heart of the economy. The Dems aren’t interested in a reasonable candidate. Chairman Nadler was spot on when he said impeachment was all about the 2020 election. Because of the clown show the Dems have no other way.

Go back and read what you just wrote. You are off the rails.

 

[Cream&Crimson]

Why don’t you make that substitution case? I don’t think you can.

The Dems should be way ahead. Instead we learn that Schiff is a lying conniving dumbass, the squad + idiots steamroll the house, and the leading Democrat POTUS candidates all want to put a dagger in the heart of the economy. The Dems aren’t interested in a reasonable candidate. Chairman Nadler was spot on when he said impeachment was all about the 2020 election. Because of the clown show the Dems have no other way.

TBH, don't bother responding to anything I post here going forward, because I won't be reading anything you post here. You don't have anything thoughtful or intelligent to say anymore (you used to), and I'm not interested in wasting my time on your drivel.

 

[zeke4ahs]

I will. Keep up with your empathy scam as your political heroes advocate destroying the lives of millions of hardworking people who end up as suicide statistics, addiction statistics, or in tents. Maybe you can tell them to learn to code.

Sure thing, scare monger.

 

[zeke4ahs]

But even bigger clowns are sheeple who's hatred for trump is greater than their hatred for a mass murdering terrorist thus wanting the US to fail in ending him.

Difficult to imagine...but they do exist

I haven’t seen anyone who isn’t glad he’s dead, what I’ve seen is people concerned about the fact that this administration probably lied to us about the reasons and has no plan about what comes next.

 

[zeke4ahs]

Why don’t you make that substitution case? I don’t think you can.

The Dems should be way ahead. Instead we learn that Schiff is a lying conniving dumbass, the squad + idiots steamroll the house, and the leading Democrat POTUS candidates all want to put a dagger in the heart of the economy. The Dems aren’t interested in a reasonable candidate. Chairman Nadler was spot on when he said impeachment was all about the 2020 election. Because of the clown show the Dems have no other way.

You keep saying that about Schiff and yet haven’t posted a single solid example. In the time you left us and then returned, it appears your brain has turned to right wing mush. Are you now existing entirely on the Infowars and the such? Because that’s what your posting has turned into.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

TBH, don't bother responding to anything I post here going forward, because I won't be reading anything you post here. You don't have anything thoughtful or intelligent to say anymore (you used to), and I'm not interested in wasting my time on your drivel.

Ha. You lecture me about drivel? Your tRump horseshit tells us all we need to know about your quality. I’ve tried dozens of times to discuss administration policies, issues, and ideas, and you respond with tRump followed by more bullshit. Even with Trump as POTUS, there is still room to talk about politics in terms of ideas. You mostly fail.

 

[Cream&Crimson]

Ha. You lecture me about drivel? Your tRump horseshit tells us all we need to know about your quality. I’ve tried dozens of times to discuss administration policies, issues, and ideas, and you respond with tRump followed by more bullshit. Even with Trump as POTUS, there is still room to talk about politics in terms of ideas. You mostly fail.

Yeah whatever dude. Have a great evening.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

You keep saying that about Schiff and yet haven’t posted a single solid example. In the time you left us and then returned, it appears your brain has turned to right wing mush. Are you now existing entirely on the Infowars and the such? Because that’s what your posting has turned into.

Go back and read Schiff’s 2018 minority report on the House Intelligence committee. The IG report shot it down in every material respect. The IG report corroborated Nunes.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Yeah, this is stupid. Medicare for all; or not, or maybe; wealth tax; fracking ban; immediate health care for illegal immigrants; no meaningful border controls; decriminalize illegal border crossings; decriminalize most property crimes; no cash bail; pack SCOTUS; eliminate the electoral college; exclude offensive speech from first amendment protection; and worse is too stupid to be a clown show. It’s a shit show.

So is making policy decisions based on religion, so is thinking that we shouldn’t do anything in climate change, so is saying that white supremacists are part of the “fine people on both sides”, so is thinking trickle down economics works, so is trying to repeal and not improve the ACA. We could go on in circles. The #NewGOP is just as dumb as the free stuff Democrat’s.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

I haven’t seen anyone who isn’t glad he’s dead, what I’ve seen is people concerned about the fact that this administration probably lied to us about the reasons and has no plan about what comes next.

The reasons? Help us here.

This was done by US Intelligence and military leaders and watching some struggle with how to handle a good thing on Trump's watch this is interesting to say the least.

 

[hoot1]

Left-wing septuagenarians who think running POTUS is the modern form of social protest are clowns.

Left-wingers who claim to love America with one breath and want to fundamentally change America with the next breath are clowns.

Left-wingers who want to impose cultural changes on everyone but themselves and those who reside in their left-wing bubbles are clowns.

Left-wingers who can only belittle and make fun of those who live, believe, and vote differently than they do are clowns.

Left-wingers who intend to destroy the jobs of millions of people while telling them to “learn to code” are clowns.

When those left wingers are together on a debate stage, they are in a clown car.

So all liberals are clowns?

CoH, in your litany you forgot to include that car pooling was one of those liberal "clown"ideas which never panned out.

 

[Cream&Crimson]

So all liberals are clowns?

CoH, in your litany you forgot to include that car pooling was one of those liberal "clown"ideas which never panned out.

I'm surprised he left that out. He does seem very locked in on the whole clown thing here lately.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

So is making policy decisions based on religion, so is thinking that we shouldn’t do anything in climate change, so is saying that white supremacists are part of the “fine people on both sides”, so is thinking trickle down economics works, so is trying to repeal and not improve the ACA. We could go on in circles. The #NewGOP is just as dumb as the free stuff Democrat’s.

Which policy decisions are based on religion?

Trumps climate change decisions (Paris, clean power plan, CAFE standards) were all show and no go. Assuming that we should take action full speed on nukes could be a small difference maker. Nobody has demonstrated that a fracking ban has any effect, at least not to justify the horrible costs.

That white supremacy thing is fake news. Trump was talking about those opposed to taking down Lee’s statue.

Economics is all about trickle up, down, right, left, back, and forth. That’s how economics works. In today’s economy, blue collar wages are rising faster than executive and white collar.

Health care is a mess. It’s been a mess for years. Not even the Dems (except for Biden) want to rehab the ACA. MFA is a slogan, not a policy. None of the MFA advocates have even described the coverage in terms of Medicare coverages. I think the pressure will be on the GOO to announce something.

you’ve mentioned the #newGOP often. I don’t know what that means other than another Trump bash.

 

[zeke4ahs]

Go back and read Schiff’s 2018 minority report on the House Intelligence committee. The IG report shot it down in every material respect. The IG report corroborated Nunes.

No, it didn’t do that at all. Not at all.

 

[zeke4ahs]

The reasons? Help us here.

This was done by US Intelligence and military leaders and watching some struggle with how to handle a good thing on Trump's watch this is interesting to say the least.

The administration tells us that they did this to preempt planned strikes against the US and to save lives. Yet sadly, why would anyone believe them? Their track record isn’t exactly exemplary.

 

[zeke4ahs]

Trump is now tweeting threats to Iran. But yep, the Democrats are the clown show.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

So all liberals are clowns?

CoH, in your litany you forgot to include that car pooling was one of those liberal "clown"ideas which never panned out.

Hickenlooper, probably Bloomberg are in a different car.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

No, it didn’t do that at all. Not at all.

You are watching too much Rachel.

 

[Cream&Crimson]

Which policy decisions are based on religion?

Trumps climate change decisions (Paris, clean power plan, CAFE standards) were all show and no go. Assuming that we should take action full speed on nukes could be a small difference maker. Nobody has demonstrated that a fracking ban has any effect, at least not to justify the horrible costs.

That white supremacy thing is fake news. Trump was talking about those opposed to taking down Lee’s statue.

Economics is all about trickle up, down, right, left, back, and forth. That’s how economics works. In today’s economy, blue collar wages are rising faster than executive and white collar.

Health care is a mess. It’s been a mess for years. Not even the Dems (except for Biden) want to rehab the ACA. MFA is a slogan, not a policy. None of the MFA advocates have even described the coverage in terms of Medicare coverages. I think the pressure will be on the GOO to announce something.

you’ve mentioned the #newGOP often. I don’t know what that means other than another Trump bash.

He said fake news lol. Confirmation that it's useless to engage with this guy going forward.

 

[hoot1]

I'm surprised he left that out. He does seem very locked in on the whole clown thing here lately.

As a kid, I was fascinated by clowns and circuses.

Should have known I had liberal predispositions.

 

[hoot1]

Hickenlooper, probably Bloomberg are in a different car.

In my dreams I sent the Bloomberg campaign a $10 donation and received a thank you letter along with two theatre tickets to Hamilton.

He is definitely my kind of entrepreneur turn liberal. At least in my world of make believe.

 

[zeke4ahs]

The reasons? Help us here.

This was done by US Intelligence and military leaders and watching some struggle with how to handle a good thing on Trump's watch this is interesting to say the least.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...als-stunned-by-trump-s-order-on-soleimani-nyt
Pentagon officials were stunned by Trump’s decision....

 

[Courtsensetwo]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...als-stunned-by-trump-s-order-on-soleimani-nyt
Pentagon officials were stunned by Trump’s decision....

and?

 

[Courtsensetwo]

The administration tells us that they did this to preempt planned strikes against the US and to save lives. Yet sadly, why would anyone believe them? Their track record isn’t exactly exemplary.

Ample reasons to do so have existed for some time, Obama could/should have done it and would have been applauded for it as he was with OBL. You are saying it is wrong for Trump to order it?