The Brits are holding their version of midterms today, with elections in Scotland, Wales, and various local councils and mayoralties across England. There was also one byelection for the UK Parliament, in Hartlepool (the UK has the best constituency names).
Labor seems to be getting pummeled pretty badly overall in England, but may just barely hold on to government in Wales. In the one Parliamentary seat up, Labor lost for the first time since the constituency was created. Councils are flipping conservative left and right. So south of the Antonine Wall, things are looking pretty good for BoJo.
Edit: Upon seeing further returns, it looks like it's more bad for Labor than it is good for the Tories, as the Greens and Lib Dems are making a lot of gains, too.
In Scotland, he's going to have headaches. SNP has stolen a few seats already, but appears to be coming up just short of a majority. They need 65 seats for a majority, but only 73 are elected directly, with the rest coming from regional lists that strongly favor runners-up in the various regions. SNP is likely to be runner-up in only the south, meaning the vast majority of list seats will go to other parties. In 2011, they won 59 seats, and gained another four from the regional lists for a total of 63. This year, they are looking at maybe 61 or 62 seats, plus two or three extras from the lists, mostly likely falling just one or maybe two seats short overall. So Sturgeon will probably form another minority government, but the Scottish Greens are also pro-independence, and they are likely to win several seats from the regional lists, as well, giving the independence faction a claimed mandate, so the fight for a second Scottish referendum is probably officially on.
Labor seems to be getting pummeled pretty badly overall in England, but may just barely hold on to government in Wales. In the one Parliamentary seat up, Labor lost for the first time since the constituency was created. Councils are flipping conservative left and right. So south of the Antonine Wall, things are looking pretty good for BoJo.
Edit: Upon seeing further returns, it looks like it's more bad for Labor than it is good for the Tories, as the Greens and Lib Dems are making a lot of gains, too.
In Scotland, he's going to have headaches. SNP has stolen a few seats already, but appears to be coming up just short of a majority. They need 65 seats for a majority, but only 73 are elected directly, with the rest coming from regional lists that strongly favor runners-up in the various regions. SNP is likely to be runner-up in only the south, meaning the vast majority of list seats will go to other parties. In 2011, they won 59 seats, and gained another four from the regional lists for a total of 63. This year, they are looking at maybe 61 or 62 seats, plus two or three extras from the lists, mostly likely falling just one or maybe two seats short overall. So Sturgeon will probably form another minority government, but the Scottish Greens are also pro-independence, and they are likely to win several seats from the regional lists, as well, giving the independence faction a claimed mandate, so the fight for a second Scottish referendum is probably officially on.
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