About that Iowa poll...

[cosmickid]

Lets shake things up a bit, I love this shit...

So the gold standard for statewide polling in Iowa is Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register. So it's shocking that in the last day or two they have released their latest poll which shows Harris trailing by 4 pts 47-43 in Iowa. But what's most shocking is that this exact same poll in June had the race at 50-32 Trump over Biden.

This is their first poll since June,and it's easy to see that Harris has turned this race on it's head. To the extent I place any importance on polls, it's when a quality poll shows a huge shift in momentum in it's results from one point to another. So this would qualify as something to keep an eye on...

A couple of possible indicators to watch for is if the camapigns own internals line up with this public poll. If they do, then we may see a trip by possibly Walz or at least one of the surrogates to the Hawkeye state.We just saw an example of this when Doug visited the Villages in FL. Some polls in FL have the race considerably closer than expected and apparently the campaign's own polling indicated a surrogate trip would be worthwhile...

One thing FL and Iowa have in common is an abortion measure on the ballot. Trump can lie all he wants about everyone wanting Roe to be overturned and "sent back to the states, but the reality is in every state where the preservation of abortion has been on the ballot post-Roe, including KS,MT,KY,OH etc... the pro abortion measure has passed. And not only won, but won handily. I don't expect 2024 will be any different...

It will be interesting to see if Trump determines a need to sink $$ into Iowa. In the end Both Iowa and FL will likely be closer than expected, but Trump will win. However if Trump truly lads Iowa by only 4 points that is very damaging to any aspirations he might have elsewhere in the Midwest.

Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris: Iowa Poll shows how the 2024 presidential race has tightened

A new Iowa Poll reveals Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by 4 points, a significant improvement from President Biden's previous 18-point deficit.

www.desmoinesregister.com

 

[cosmickid]

Lets shake things up a bit, I love this shit...

So the gold standard for statewide polling in Iowa is Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register. So it's shocking that in the last day or two they have released their latest poll which shows Harris trailing by 4 pts 47-43 in Iowa. But what's most shocking is that this exact same poll in June had the race at 50-32 Trump over Biden.

This is their first poll since June,and it's easy to see that Harris has turned this race on it's head. To the extent I place any importance on polls, it's when a quality poll shows a huge shift in momentum in it's results from one point to another. So this would qualify as something to keep an eye on...

A couple of possible indicators to watch for is if the camapigns own internals line up with this public poll. If they do, then we may see a trip by possibly Walz or at least one of the surrogates to the Hawkeye state.We just saw an example of this when Doug visited the Villages in FL. Some polls in FL have the race considerably closer than expected and apparently the campaign's own polling indicated a surrogate trip would be worthwhile...

One thing FL and Iowa have in common is an abortion measure on the ballot. Trump can lie all he wants about everyone wanting Roe to be overturned and "sent back to the states, but the reality is in every state where the preservation of abortion has been on the ballot post-Roe, including KS,MT,KY,OH etc... the pro abortion measure has passed. And not only won, but won handily. I don't expect 2024 will be any different...

It will be interesting to see if Trump determines a need to sink $$ into Iowa. In the end Both Iowa and FL will likely be closer than expected, but Trump will win. However if Trump truly lads Iowa by only 4 points that is very damaging to any aspirations he might have elsewhere in the Midwest.

Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris: Iowa Poll shows how the 2024 presidential race has tightened

A new Iowa Poll reveals Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by 4 points, a significant improvement from President Biden's previous 18-point deficit.

www.desmoinesregister.com

So back in Sept the Trump lead in Iowa, according to the most respected poll in Iowa was down to 4 pts. Everyone said to hold off and wait for Selzer's final poll in Nov, to see if Iowa is going to be competitive. As I posted previously, this same exact poll June showed Trump with an 18 pt lead over Biden...

Well the Final poll came out this weekend and it's sending shockwaves thru the political landscape. Not only did Trump not increase his lead, but the poll shows Harris in front...It looks like the 2 issues hurting Trump in Iowa are women and tariffs...

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”

www.desmoinesregister.com

Do I think Harris will win Iowa? Probably not... But if Trump is trailing in a poll of Iowa by the generally most trusted voice in Iowa politics on the weekend prior to the election, it basically indicates that he is in deep trouble in both WI and MI.

Maybe instead of wasting his time in Albuquerque and VA, he should have gone to Des Moines...

 

[Spartans9312]

So back in Sept the Trump lead in Iowa, according to the most respected poll in Iowa was down to 4 pts. Everyone said to hold off and wait for Selzer's final poll in Nov, to see if Iowa is going to be competitive. As I posted previously, this same exact poll June showed Trump with an 18 pt lead over Biden...

Well the Final poll came out this weekend and it's sending shockwaves thru the political landscape. Not only did Trump not increase his lead, but the poll shows Harris in front...It looks like the 2 issues hurting Trump in Iowa are women and tariffs...

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”

www.desmoinesregister.com

Do I think Harris will win Iowa? Probably not... But if Trump is trailing in a poll of Iowa by the generally most trusted voice in Iowa politics on the weekend prior to the election, it basically indicates that he is in deep trouble in both WI and MI.

Maybe instead of wasting his time in Albuquerque and VA, he should have gone to Des Moines...

Apparently there have been 3 state bills passed that supposedly enraged Democrats in Iowa….abortion bill and 2 education bills.

But if the voters were that mad you would expect a surge in registration to parallel that passion.
So Registration 01-01-2023 601,000 D and 695,000R….09-30-24 466,000 D and 634,000 Rs. We have seen a steady decline as Ds roll of the active list (some Rs as well), people have changed parties and new voters have been leaning to the GOP side.

Or maybe voters really feel that passion to vote early against those wretched Rs. In 2020 early vote was 449,289 Ds versus 331,880 Rs with others for a total of 996K. In 2024 clearly the Ds are on absolute rampage during the early voting this time. Ds are 219,085…Rs are 220,140…others are 114,579 for a total of 553,000. Trump won in 2020 as the GOP gave a big edge away in vote by mail ballots but this year it’s even. Those really passionate “Others” who unaffiliated are barely even trying to get mail ballots this year. If voters are upset with the GOP in Iowa they are showing in the midwestern way that I have seen. The last poll I saw had Biden’s approval level in Iowa at 29%. I fully understand how some particular bills could be very unpopular segments of voters but I don’t see the passion to put Kamala in office when by registering to vote and actually casting a ballot it’s the GOP who are excited

 

[Bowlmania]

So back in Sept the Trump lead in Iowa, according to the most respected poll in Iowa was down to 4 pts. Everyone said to hold off and wait for Selzer's final poll in Nov, to see if Iowa is going to be competitive. As I posted previously, this same exact poll June showed Trump with an 18 pt lead over Biden...

Well the Final poll came out this weekend and it's sending shockwaves thru the political landscape. Not only did Trump not increase his lead, but the poll shows Harris in front...It looks like the 2 issues hurting Trump in Iowa are women and tariffs...

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”

www.desmoinesregister.com

Do I think Harris will win Iowa? Probably not... But if Trump is trailing in a poll of Iowa by the generally most trusted voice in Iowa politics on the weekend prior to the election, it basically indicates that he is in deep trouble in both WI and MI.

Maybe instead of wasting his time in Albuquerque and VA, he should have gone to Des Moines...

Agreed. This latest poll is within the MOE and Harris is not going to win Iowa, but it portends big trouble for Trump in the Midwest battleground states. And the demographics of the massive new voter registrations in PA suggest big trouble for Trump there.

 

[TommyCracker]

Apparently there have been 3 state bills passed that supposedly enraged Democrats in Iowa….abortion bill and 2 education bills.

But if the voters were that mad you would expect a surge in registration to parallel that passion.
So Registration 01-01-2023 601,000 D and 695,000R….09-30-24 466,000 D and 634,000 Rs. We have seen a steady decline as Ds roll of the active list (some Rs as well), people have changed parties and new voters have been leaning to the GOP side.

Or maybe voters really feel that passion to vote early against those wretched Rs. In 2020 early vote was 449,289 Ds versus 331,880 Rs with others for a total of 996K. In 2024 clearly the Ds are on absolute rampage during the early voting this time. Ds are 219,085…Rs are 220,140…others are 114,579 for a total of 553,000. Trump won in 2020 as the GOP gave a big edge away in vote by mail ballots but this year it’s even. Those really passionate “Others” who unaffiliated are barely even trying to get mail ballots this year. If voters are upset with the GOP in Iowa they are showing in the midwestern way that I have seen. The last poll I saw had Biden’s approval level in Iowa at 29%. I fully understand how some particular bills could be very unpopular segments of voters but I don’t see the passion to put Kamala in office when by registering to vote and actually casting a ballot it’s the GOP who are excited

The vibes that I don't see discussed at the WC much that I see in other places on the abortion restriction topic that has strong reactions are the impact that the strong restrictions have had in the states that codify them that are causing OBGYN practitioners to get the f out of the state involved and/or not be a destination for OBGYN specialists to be attracted to move to....causing tremendous additional health care issues and anxiety for women overall.

Iowa supposedly has seen a huge reduction of OBGYN specialists since their 6 week abortion law into effect. Gotta think Indiana is likely seeing the same.

It just adds to the issue that smaller rural areas are seeing since their hospitals aren't profitable enough....so rural hospitals are closing up and ambulance services are shutting down everywhere but really hitting those areas.

I grew up in Bedford and my buddies told me that Dunn Memorial Hospital closed down so there's only one facility in the area (B Medical Center) with some having to go to Bloomington now for emergencies. That goes for all the communities in Lawrence co so...Mitchell, Williams, Oolitic, Shawswick and of course Heltonville.

I rarely hear the rural challenges that they are facing brought up in the health care discussions, but they are legit concerns as with the impacts of aggressive abortion restrictions.

 

[Spartans9312]

The vibes that I don't see discussed at the WC much that I see in other places on the abortion restriction topic that has strong reactions are the impact that the strong restrictions have had in the states that codify them that are causing OBGYN practitioners to get the f out of the state involved and/or not be a destination for OBGYN specialists to be attracted to move to....causing tremendous additional health care issues and anxiety for women overall.

Iowa supposedly has seen a huge reduction of OBGYN specialists since their 6 week abortion law into effect. Gotta think Indiana is likely seeing the same.

It just adds to the issue that smaller rural areas are seeing since their hospitals aren't profitable enough....so rural hospitals are closing up and ambulance services are shutting down everywhere but really hitting those areas.

I grew up in Bedford and my buddies told me that Dunn Memorial Hospital closed down so there's only one facility in the area (B Medical Center) with some having to go to Bloomington now for emergencies. That goes for all the communities in Lawrence co so...Mitchell, Williams, Oolitic, Shawswick and of course Heltonville.

I rarely hear the rural challenges that they are facing brought up in the health care discussions, but they are legit concerns as with the impacts of aggressive abortion restrictions.

Unless the 6 week abortion bill is not written properly (which is probably the case) it should not have an impact on OB/GYN providers. A D&C is not an abortion….so on and so forth

 

[UncleMark]

Unless the 6 week abortion bill is not written properly (which is probably the case) it should not have an impact on OB/GYN providers. A D&C is not an abortion….so on and so forth

The morons writing the laws don't know the difference.

 

[cosmickid]

Agreed. This latest poll is within the MOE and Harris is not going to win Iowa, but it portends big trouble for Trump in the Midwest battleground states. And the demographics of the massive new voter registrations in PA suggest big trouble for Trump there.

It's not just Iowa. Fort Hayes State is a good pollster in Kansas and they have a poll showing Trump with only a 5pt lead, at 48%. In 2020 he got 56% of the Kansas vote. The abortion issue and Laura Kelly being re-elected are two issues that signal increasing Dem support...

https://www.ksn.com/news/state-regional/could-kansas-be-a-swing-state-poll-places-harris-shy-of-trump/

 

[cosmickid]

It's not just Iowa. Fort Hayes State is a good pollster in Kansas and they have a poll showing Trump with only a 5pt lead, at 48%. In 2020 he got 56% of the Kansas vote. The abortion issue and Laura Kelly being re-elected are two issues that signal increasing Dem support...

https://www.ksn.com/news/state-regional/could-kansas-be-a-swing-state-poll-places-harris-shy-of-trump/

Will Iowa be close? Early vote a tie with a 10 pt gender gap...