Lets shake things up a bit, I love this shit...
So the gold standard for statewide polling in Iowa is Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register. So it's shocking that in the last day or two they have released their latest poll which shows Harris trailing by 4 pts 47-43 in Iowa. But what's most shocking is that this exact same poll in June had the race at 50-32 Trump over Biden.
This is their first poll since June,and it's easy to see that Harris has turned this race on it's head. To the extent I place any importance on polls, it's when a quality poll shows a huge shift in momentum in it's results from one point to another. So this would qualify as something to keep an eye on...
A couple of possible indicators to watch for is if the camapigns own internals line up with this public poll. If they do, then we may see a trip by possibly Walz or at least one of the surrogates to the Hawkeye state.We just saw an example of this when Doug visited the Villages in FL. Some polls in FL have the race considerably closer than expected and apparently the campaign's own polling indicated a surrogate trip would be worthwhile...
One thing FL and Iowa have in common is an abortion measure on the ballot. Trump can lie all he wants about everyone wanting Roe to be overturned and "sent back to the states, but the reality is in every state where the preservation of abortion has been on the ballot post-Roe, including KS,MT,KY,OH etc... the pro abortion measure has passed. And not only won, but won handily. I don't expect 2024 will be any different...
It will be interesting to see if Trump determines a need to sink $$ into Iowa. In the end Both Iowa and FL will likely be closer than expected, but Trump will win. However if Trump truly lads Iowa by only 4 points that is very damaging to any aspirations he might have elsewhere in the Midwest.
So the gold standard for statewide polling in Iowa is Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register. So it's shocking that in the last day or two they have released their latest poll which shows Harris trailing by 4 pts 47-43 in Iowa. But what's most shocking is that this exact same poll in June had the race at 50-32 Trump over Biden.
This is their first poll since June,and it's easy to see that Harris has turned this race on it's head. To the extent I place any importance on polls, it's when a quality poll shows a huge shift in momentum in it's results from one point to another. So this would qualify as something to keep an eye on...
A couple of possible indicators to watch for is if the camapigns own internals line up with this public poll. If they do, then we may see a trip by possibly Walz or at least one of the surrogates to the Hawkeye state.We just saw an example of this when Doug visited the Villages in FL. Some polls in FL have the race considerably closer than expected and apparently the campaign's own polling indicated a surrogate trip would be worthwhile...
One thing FL and Iowa have in common is an abortion measure on the ballot. Trump can lie all he wants about everyone wanting Roe to be overturned and "sent back to the states, but the reality is in every state where the preservation of abortion has been on the ballot post-Roe, including KS,MT,KY,OH etc... the pro abortion measure has passed. And not only won, but won handily. I don't expect 2024 will be any different...
It will be interesting to see if Trump determines a need to sink $$ into Iowa. In the end Both Iowa and FL will likely be closer than expected, but Trump will win. However if Trump truly lads Iowa by only 4 points that is very damaging to any aspirations he might have elsewhere in the Midwest.
Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris: Iowa Poll shows how the 2024 presidential race has tightened
A new Iowa Poll reveals Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by 4 points, a significant improvement from President Biden's previous 18-point deficit.
www.desmoinesregister.com
