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A fight for 9th: IU, OSU, Wisconsin

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TR32

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Nov 20, 2009
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I give Minnesota an advantage despite a bad early loss to OSU.

So I think IU is fighting the other 2 for the #9 team bid for the tourney. 10 could get in, but let's see how things play out first.
 
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Minny will lose at Michigan next but will have a good chance to beat Iowa at home.

They have wins over Nebraska and Wisconsin and are 4-3. NET is currently irrelevant.
 
TR32 said:
Minny will lose at Michigan next but will have a good chance to beat Iowa at home.

They have wins over Nebraska and Wisconsin and are 4-3. NET is currently irrelevant.
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Why is it irrelevant? We are 2/3rds the way through the season, plenty enough data.

It ties in fairly closely with the other analytic based models. They are 66th in KenPom, for example.

Bottom line, they aren't very good. Did you miss them losing by 30 to Illinois!
 
No, I just told you they are 4-3 and have beaten Wisconsin and Nebraska. If they knock off Iowa at home too, that is 3 Big wins and ultimately where you finish in the conference is a better measure than anything else. Although I readily admit that this may be the first year that is less important considering so many potential bids.

Minnesota has 6-7 winnable games remaining, practically speaking. That would put them somewhere around 10 or 11 conference wins, so we will see if they can do that.
 
TR32 said:
No, I just told you they are 4-3 and have beaten Wisconsin and Nebraska. If they knock off Iowa at home too, that is 3 Big wins and ultimately where you finish in the conference is a better measure than anything else. Although I readily admit that this may be the first year that is less important considering so many potential bids.

Minnesota has 6-7 winnable games remaining, practically speaking. That would put them somewhere around 10 or 11 conference wins, so we will see if they can do that.
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Conf records are totally irrelevant.

Ask Nebraska from last year.

It's all about quality wins/bad losses. Why does this discussion have to be had every year, when the committee has been clear on this for years?

Minnesota isn't a tourney team, right now.
 
twenty02 said:
Conf records are totally irrelevant.

Ask Nebraska from last year.

It's all about quality wins/bad losses. Why does this discussion have to be had every year, when the committee has been clear on this for years?

Minnesota isn't a tourney team, right now.
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You are right about Nebraska last year. But conference record has been a steadfast indicator of bids for decades. This year, with 20 games and more high level inter-conference match ups, it may be a bit different. If it starts to look like the Big Ten can't get more than 8, then there will be some looking outside of the conference and whether there are some bad losses or no quality wins

It isn't that they don't look at "body of work", it's just that when the conference has a 79% out of conference win percentage, conference games simply mean a lot more.

If you want to do the looking, find me another example of a 10 win (in an 18 game schedule) Big Ten team not going dancing.
 
TR32 said:
You are right about Nebraska last year. But conference record has been a steadfast indicator of bids for decades. This year, with 20 games and more high level inter-conference match ups, it may be a bit different. If it starts to look like the Big Ten can't get more than 8, then there will be some looking outside of the conference and whether there are some bad losses or no quality wins

It isn't that they don't look at "body of work", it's just that when the conference has a 79% out of conference win percentage, conference games simply mean a lot more.

If you want to do the looking, find me another example of a 10 win (in an 18 game schedule) Big Ten team not going dancing.
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They'll have their shots like anyone else. But how a team gets destroyed by a terrible Illinois (#101) team....that's gonna be tough get past.

We have one "bad" loss... Arkansas (#78) by a bucket. Every other loss is to a top 20 team (#2, 4, 14, 16, 18).
 
twenty02 said:
You know what I mean. Wager?
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Very good.

I have a good wager for the both of us:

IU makes the Big Dance.....I will not post again on this forum.

IU fails to make the Big Dance....you disappear from this board.

Deal?

I think that is a wager that carries some weight, no?
 
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twenty02 said:
We have one "bad" loss... Arkansas (#78) by a bucket. Every other loss is to a top 20 team (#2, 4, 14, 16, 18).
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No, the one basket missed tip in on the road in the preseason was not a bad loss. Getting their asses whipped 4 games in a row including by 15 the last 2, those are bad losses.
 
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IU will not be in the NCAA tourney. Look at the schedule and realistically ask yourself how the rest of the season goes. Not good!
 
Big Red Crimson Buffalo said:
Well, it is when you are invested in posting on the boards. For you, maybe it’s not considering you just invented a new username today.

Nice user nickname, by the way.
I would have preferred “2” or “II” but the Spanish translation will work.
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If he is an actual IU grad and believes academics matter...he is a huge upgrade.
 
TR32 said:
I give Minnesota an advantage despite a bad early loss to OSU.

So I think IU is fighting the other 2 for the #9 team bid for the tourney. 10 could get in, but let's see how things play out first.
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Going to be one heck of a wild ride and alot of fun.
 
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jwardelt said:
UW is fighting for 3rd or 4th, not 9th.
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Wisconsin has Nebraska, Minnesota, Maryland, UM, MSU all xoming in the next few weeks. They have NW next but then things get really tough for them.
Knocking off Michigan was a function of catching a rocket while it is coasting, twas bound to happen sooner or later.
 
TR32 said:
I give Minnesota an advantage despite a bad early loss to OSU.

So I think IU is fighting the other 2 for the #9 team bid for the tourney. 10 could get in, but let's see how things play out first.
Click to expand...
Problem I have is eye test, it looks like we are in a fight for NIT at best. Injuries are a part, but basically we suck chemistry wise. Suspecting we get killed tomorrow at home and that will probably start a more enlightened discussion.. Sorry to be Debbie Downer, but its that bad.
 
How much of an effect does losing devonte effect the team going further? I just don't think you can simply say addition by subtraction as some have said. He was pretty solid depth.
 
go_iu said:
Problem I have is eye test, it looks like we are in a fight for NIT at best. Injuries are a part, but basically we suck chemistry wise. Suspecting we get killed tomorrow at home and that will probably start a more enlightened discussion.. Sorry to be Debbie Downer, but its that bad.
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Yeah, I hear you. I have to assume improvement for discussion of what may happen, but I wouldn't necessarily bet on it.

The Michigan game is the waterloo for this team's tourney chances.
 
Emartin70287 said:
How much of an effect does losing devonte effect the team going further? I just don't think you can simply say addition by subtraction as some have said. He was pretty solid depth.
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None, he sucks, and is un-coachable, but it's not like we didn't already suck with him in caricature … he SUCKS, is selfish and a detriment.

OK, I said it! Who wants to argue? Before you do, if you ever played ball and were any good, and below 50 … do you not think you could not beat him 1-1, I'll bet you think you could. For that, there is a problem, that kind of sums it up. BBall IQ
 
go_iu said:
None, he sucks, and is un-coachable, but it's not like we didn't already suck with him in caricature … he SUCKS, is selfish and a detriment.

OK, I said it! Who wants to argue? Before you do, if you ever played ball and were any good, and below 50 … do you not think you could not beat him 1-1, I'll bet you think you could. For that, there is a problem, that kind of sums it up. BBall IQ
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you think former high school players under the age of 50 think they can take green 1 on 1? insane. regular iq
 
TR32 said:
I give Minnesota an advantage despite a bad early loss to OSU.

So I think IU is fighting the other 2 for the #9 team bid for the tourney. 10 could get in, but let's see how things play out first.
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i don't think the big ten gets 9 bids
 
Your wager is hardly fair a more correct mathematical wager would be IU winning 3 or more games the rest of the season, I would take the under.
 
Big Red Crimson Buffalo Obsessed Poster said:
"invested in posting on the boards"...LOL, that explains some things, what a facking loser.
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Well.....join the club then, loser!

You took the time to invent a name and reply. That makes you a “facking loser” too. Why go through the trouble then?

Laughing at you, clown!

Oh...but you don’t care about posting on message boards? Sure. Right.

Wow...you cannot make this stuff up!
 
TR32 said:
Wisconsin has Nebraska, Minnesota, Maryland, UM, MSU all xoming in the next few weeks. They have NW next but then things get really tough for them.
Knocking off Michigan was a function of catching a rocket while it is coasting, twas bound to happen sooner or later.
Click to expand...

Again, fighting for 3rd.
 
Big Red Crimson Buffalo said:
You want to double down on that bet Sparkie and maybe you can exit as well? Read enough of your sunshine and rainbow takes on here. You got them making the Big Dance too?
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From an outsider's point of view. Your looking really good on your bet(s).

Hard to see IU pulling out of this tailspin enough to offset this hot streak of dog poo that they're in currently.

I only now worry about the Assembly Hall game because it will be your Super Bowl for the 3rd year in a row.

Other than that I'm not sure where IU gets wins on the schedule in the the next couple of weeks.
 
TR32 said:
I give Minnesota an advantage despite a bad early loss to OSU.

So I think IU is fighting the other 2 for the #9 team bid for the tourney. 10 could get in, but let's see how things play out first.
Click to expand...
We are actually in a fight for 13th now with Illinois. Buckle up folks it is going to be a wild ride!
 
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