90 day pause in tariffs

[Hank Reardon]

Need to look at a liability matching portfolio construction.

For retirement (or near) need at minimum 5 years of basic expenses in some sort of bond ladder. Using TIPS or something similar. Some more conservative investors will build out a 10 year ladder.

Only money in excess of meeting basic expenses across that timeframe.... Or for money beyond that 5/10 year runway.... should be in equities

Yeah, I'm not a finance wizard, such as yourself. I always envisioned sort of a three bucket approach. Bucket 1 would be three years worth of cash/fixed income, like CD ladders or whatever makes sense at any time. Bucket 2 would be 5 years worth of...something...like bonds I guess. Then bucket 3 is equities. Rebalance the buckets based on market conditions. Bucket 2 is what I've struggled with knowing how to handle. I've never really known how to properly invest in bonds, and obviously I need to figure that out.

 

[TMFT]

This administration has the confidence of a middle schooler doing Tik Tok dances. "This was the plan all along" has got to be one of the more incredible lies told since "about 6 inches." I'm a little sad that the credulous will believe it, but here we are.

 

[iuwclurker]

I hope you did not sell out in panic. This was always about China. Trump has been talking about China ripping us off for 15 years now. I am sure liberals who look at it like some big win though. I guess you liberals can now go back to no caring about the stock market again and move onto some other thing to hate trump for.

Bailey, what you’re missing about liberals with your stock market rant is that wealthy liberals invest in the market too. Furthermore, historically the stock market has done better when the POTUS is a Dem. But you do you, my man.

 

[GooglyMooglyWooglyBoogly]

So we couldn’t have just slammed China to begin with? Why did we have to threaten to go to war with the whole world?

 

[TMFT]

Yeah, I'm not a finance wizard, such as yourself. I always envisioned sort of a three bucket approach. Bucket 1 would be three years worth of cash/fixed income, like CD ladders or whatever makes sense at any time. Bucket 2 would be 5 years worth of...something...like bonds I guess. Then bucket 3 is equities. Rebalance the buckets based on market conditions. Bucket 2 is what I've struggled with knowing how to handle. I've never really known how to properly invest in bonds, and obviously I need to figure that out.

I wouldn't be mad if @twenty02 started an investment thread. I always am interested in what people smarter than me have to say on the issue. I also do not understand bonds.

Personally, my current retirement plan is about 20% in SPY (for growth), 20% in CD ladders, 20% in REITs, & 40% in Dividend aristocrats/kings (hoping they'll stay stable long term on the dividends).

 

[BradStevens]

I wouldn't be mad if @twenty02 started an investment thread. I always am interested in what people smarter than me have to say on the issue. I also do not understand bonds.

Personally, my current retirement plan is about 20% in SPY (for growth), 20% in CD ladders, 20% in REITs, & 40% in Dividend aristocrats/kings (hoping they'll stay stable long term on the dividends).

 

[jet812]

The bond market forced them to cave. I suspect they have created so much invisible damage underneath the surface that unless there are trade deals within the next month we are still heading towards a depression .

I’ve seen several of our bond funds take a big hit, can you help me understand the mechanics at a high level of why they’re the driver behind him pausing for 90 days?

 

[BradStevens]

I honestly don't get it. What has he done?

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And I guess it's time to start following Trump on Truth Social:

Trump’s political operation is amplifying a Truth Social post the president sent just hours before he suspended most tariffs, in which he announced that it was “a great time to buy.”

“Did the Panicans listen to @POTUS’s advice this morning?” Trump War Room posted on X, just after the tariff pause announcement.

 

[iuwclurker]

Can Trump be indicted on insider trading or does that fall under presidential duties?

 

[bailey777]

No his cannot be I am told trump totally caved.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I honestly don't get it. What has he done?

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And I guess it's time to start following Trump on Truth Social:

Trump’s political operation is amplifying a Truth Social post the president sent just hours before he suspended most tariffs, in which he announced that it was “a great time to buy.”

“Did the Panicans listen to @POTUS’s advice this morning?” Trump War Room posted on X, just after the tariff pause announcement.

I love this headline

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www.yahoo.com

 

[iuwclurker]

I love this headline

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Stupid headline. Their actual worry is that he is insane.

 

[Eppy99]

I don’t care to debate who is right or wrong (though the tariffs have scared the eff out of me) I just hope all our accounts are looking a little better today. I hope nobody took a real loss and just looked at it as a paper loss. We’re certainly not out of the woods as I expect continued volatility, but let’s at least breathe for a moment.

 

[iuwclurker]

I’m a pacifist, but also a realist so in this case, I kinda wish Trump sticks to dropping bombs*, deporting illegals and taking Mulligans and leaves economics to the actual experts.

* Note that he leaves dropping bombs to the military experts, too. In fact, any sort of faint success he has is probably attributable to him delegating to experts.

 

[twenty02]

The bond market forced them to cave. I suspect they have created so much invisible damage underneath the surface that unless there are trade deals within the next month we are still heading towards a depression .

Correct. Bond market was starting to shows signs of cracking today with liquidity drying up... Which is playing with a five alarm fire that wouldn't be fixed without Fed having to step in.

 

[iuwclurker]

Liberation Day Revoked!

😂

Trump is a manic. That’s where he gets his “boundless“ energy. Also where he gets his aversion to losing. Trouble is, if something pops his bubble he’ll crash and burn psychologically. This kind of reversal is going to be hard for him to take.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

I’m a pacifist, but also a realist so in this case, I kinda wish Trump sticks to dropping bombs*, deporting illegals and taking Mulligans and leaves economics to the actual experts.

* Note that he leaves dropping bombs to the military experts, too. In fact, any sort of faint success he has is probably attributable to him delegating to experts.

How about we all just hope he sticks to golf at Mar-a-Largo, and leaves all governing to those who are not insane, like we were promised by mcm666?

 

[Eppy99]

Can Trump be indicted on insider trading or does that fall under presidential duties?

I think it’s a reasonable question, but If I was a millionaire or billionaire regardless of political affiliation I would have been a buyer too.

 

[mcmurtry66]

How about we all just hope he sticks to golf at Mar-a-Largo, and leaves all governing to those who are not insane, like we were promised by mcm666?

You’d think he’d need a bypass or some skin cancer patches or something to slow him down

 

[LedZep17]

Our beautiful tariffs, we barely knew thee. Trump's failed "medicine" really wasn't all that bad... it's just toiling with the markets and our livelihoods- that's all. I mean it's not like he told us to go drink bleach this time. Baby-steps.

 

[iuwclurker]

How about we all just hope he sticks to golf at Mar-a-Largo, and leaves all governing to those who are not insane, like we were promised by mcm666?

Hey! What’s with the extra six? He doesn’t need his ego inflated any more…

 

[All4You]

How about we all just hope he sticks to golf at Mar-a-Largo, and leaves all governing to those who are not insane, like we were promised by mcm666?

 

[TMFT]

No his cannot be I am told trump totally caved.

View embedded media

He 100% caved.

When the tariffs were announced, the one that stuck out to me was Lesotho. Why does a small African country with a $7B GDP, half its population in poverty, and an HIV/AIDS epidemic end up with the highest tariff rate? Does he really think they've been taking our lunch? They couldn't even afford our products if they had completely free trade with the US.

So it was either based on a dumb formula or he's cruel. While I can't discount the latter, I think it's the former if for no other reason than we also levied tariffs on a couple unpopulated islands.

Between equity losses, bond losses, and the increasing grumbling of Rs in Congress, he caved and declared victory.

Before you misconstrue me, I think it's good he caved. I think it was the right move. I don't think it makes him weak. I just think, objectively, the conclusion that he caved is the only conclusion a clear eyed person could actually make.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

The leftist media cannot be happy today . They were all in on trying to create maximum fear and to crash the market. They must be very sad.

The crash was 100 percent on the President and his ridiculous tariffs. The recovery is all because Trump paused the ridiculous tariffs. The “leftist media” and “Trump hatred” had nothing to do with it. Your take is very dumb.

 

[T.M.P.]

and leaves all governing to those who are not insane

the Democrats?

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

I honestly don't get it. What has he done?

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And I guess it's time to start following Trump on Truth Social:

Trump’s political operation is amplifying a Truth Social post the president sent just hours before he suspended most tariffs, in which he announced that it was “a great time to buy.”

“Did the Panicans listen to @POTUS’s advice this morning?” Trump War Room posted on X, just after the tariff pause announcement.

Trump knew a bounce would happen if he paused the tariffs. Did he tell his rich friends he was going to do just that so they could invest millions at the bottom. The SEC should look into unusual large trades! Who am I kidding? 😉

 

[iuwclurker]

Democrats?

No, overgeneralization. AOC.

 

[BCCHoosier]

I’ve seen several of our bond funds take a big hit, can you help me understand the mechanics at a high level of why they’re the driver behind him pausing for 90 days?

That is how it was back in 2022. Bond funds did not provide much cover when equities took a hit. I am far from a bond expert myself.

TMFT above said that he uses the dividend aristocrats in their portfolio, I think that is a smart play. Probably what I'll do when I'm a bit older.

 

[TMFT]

That is how it was back in 2022. Bond funds did not provide much cover when equities took a hit. I am far from a bond expert myself.

TMFT above said that he uses the dividend aristocrats in their portfolio, I think that is a smart play. Probably what I'll do when I'm a bit older.

Disclaimer: I'm half a hillbilly that just happened to fall ass backwards into a great career. Agree with any of my opinions at your peril.

 

[Harry Hondo]

The crash was 100 percent on the President and his ridiculous tariffs. The recovery is all because Trump paused the ridiculous tariffs. The “leftist media” and “Trump hatred” had nothing to do with it. Your take is very dumb.

The cult always has a spin that supports their agenda. It just justifies their insanity until the next stupid thing he does.. then rinse and repeat.

 

[GooglyMooglyWooglyBoogly]

Trump is responsive and transactional, not dogmatic and ideological. If all you would just listen to the some of the wiser posters on this board, they were saying this a while ago.

Don’t get me wrong. I think tariffs are generally stupid. But I’ll eat my hat if Trump tariffs the country into an affordability crisis. Just not gonna happen. He’s responsive to the will of the people.

He’s not an ideologue like the idiots we had the last four years.

 

[twenty02]

Yeah, I'm not a finance wizard, such as yourself. I always envisioned sort of a three bucket approach. Bucket 1 would be three years worth of cash/fixed income, like CD ladders or whatever makes sense at any time. Bucket 2 would be 5 years worth of...something...like bonds I guess. Then bucket 3 is equities. Rebalance the buckets based on market conditions. Bucket 2 is what I've struggled with knowing how to handle. I've never really known how to properly invest in bonds, and obviously I need to figure that out.

You basically have two options, buying individual bonds or use bond funds.

There are advantages/disadvantages to each. If you are someone who likes to dig in, and wants to build the most efficient possible setup....then learning about individual bonds may be worthwhile. You could build a bond ladder just like your CD ladder, save on fund expense costs, more closely match timing that you would need the funds etc.....

But buying a bond index fund (or funds) is definitely "good enough".


Two risks in bonds....credit risk and term (duration) risk.


You can eliminate credit risk by buying Treasury bonds/Treasury bond funds. If you want more risk in the portfolio, just buy more equites. Don't need to take credit risk on your fixed income side.

You can't eliminate term risk, other than buying shorter term bonds/funds...but typically that means lower return. Standard portfolio management is to match the term/duration of your bond investments to your investment horizon. That was what I was referring to as liability matching. So maybe have some 3-5 year bonds, and maybe some 10 year.

The only "problem" with bond funds (mutual funds/ETFs)...is they are going they are going to continue to roll maturing bonds back into new bonds. So your duration never really changes, when maybe you want it to be getting shorter. Just a lot of moving targets and ideal setup is going to vary a lot based upon the individual circumstance, tax bracket, etc..


TL/DR/DGAFF....just buy an intermediate term Treasury bond fund with low expense ratio.

 

[mcmurtry66]

The cult always has a spin that supports their agenda. It just justifies their insanity until the next stupid thing he does.. then rinse and repeat.

Like the cult that justified a 41 year spike in inflation climate zealotry open borders gas spikes Covid lockdowns and chopping the balls off minors. Why haven’t you left the country yet cultist?

You masked up? Blm shirt on today?

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

Like the cult that justified a 41 year spike in inflation climate zealotry open borders gas spikes Covid lockdowns and chopping the balls off minors. Why haven’t you left the country yet cultist?

You masked up? Blm shirt on today?

Dude, gotta say, as one of your biggest fans on here, this hackneyed rant has lost much of its effect over the last few months. I get it, though...you gotta dance with the date you spent the money on for the corsage.

JMHO.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Dude, gotta say, as one of your biggest fans on here, this hackneyed rant has lost much of its effect over the last few months. I get it, though...you gotta dance with the date you spent the money on for the corsage.

JMHO.

I think context matters. We forget why we have this lunatic. So when we start with the cult shit from Hondo types there’s some selective memory involved as to how we got here and what’s waiting in the wings

 

[Courtsensetwo]

So we couldn’t have just slammed China to begin with? Why did we have to threaten to go to war with the whole world?

Because he is an idiot and his followers are dumbshits.

That is my most respectful explaination

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Like the cult that justified a 41 year spike in inflation climate zealotry open borders gas spikes Covid lockdowns and chopping the balls off minors. Why haven’t you left the country yet cultist?

You masked up? Blm shirt on today?

I am wearing a condum

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

I think context matters. We forget why we have this lunatic. So when we start with the cult shit from Hondo types there’s some selective memory involved as to how we got here and what’s waiting in the wings

Ok.
YDY.

 

[Noodle]

I think context matters. We forget why we have this lunatic. So when we start with the cult shit from Hondo types there’s some selective memory involved as to how we got here and what’s waiting in the wings

Waiting in the wings? You mean it's going to get worse?

 

[Harry Hondo]

Like the cult that justified a 41 year spike in inflation climate zealotry open borders gas spikes Covid lockdowns and chopping the balls off minors. Why haven’t you left the country yet cultist?

You masked up? Blm shirt on today?

Inflation was high around the world and you know why. Gas spikes have little or nothing to do with politics. I had freedom to go wherever I wanted during Covid. You must live in a fascist area (that explains your Trump support, I guess). Since when do you guys care about other humans, let alone transgenders? That’s not a good look for you people.