I did +5000 to make final fourHoosiers are +25000 to win the whole damn thing on Betmgm! Gotta put some $ on that!!!
DO IT!
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- Thread starter Cavanagh
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Put Galloway on him, and when he gets deep have Phin dig the shit out of him.
BetMgm gave a free $10bet, so I put that on the +25000, hope it turns into a free $2500 win!
Juan Dixon says, "Yes, I've heard there were guards like that."
Isiah Thomas says, "You beat me to it! I agree!"
Check this out. Here is the calculation for UCLA's trip to the Final Four last year. The Bruins were fortunate enough to play Abilene Christian to reach the Sweet 16 and UCLA was -250 in that game.
So, UCLA paid 103 to 1 to reach the Final Four if you let it ride each game as opposed to just betting the pre-tourney odds (which were probably in the 40-50 to 1 range). That's with playing a #14 seed in the round of 32.
Now, check this out. This one shows what you would cash out if UCLA had beaten Gonzaga on Final Four Saturday.
That's 834 to 1 odds and they would still have the Championship game in front of them. Assuming UCLA would have been +500 vs Baylor, the payoff for a UCLA title last year would have paid 5,000 to 1 if you let it ride game by game (close to true odds) However, a post above said you should just bet IU to win the Title for 250 to 1 odds??? Bet game by game and you return 20 fold!
One last thing on this. Baylor was 4 to 1 to win the Title last in pre-tourney odds, but if you bet them game by game you would have returned $893.83 for a $100 bet (basically 8-1). Basically, if you bet pre-tourney, you sweat out a great pick and the sportsbook keeps half of your profit. If you're on a longshot like UCLA last year, you've made the pick of your life and the sportsbook keeps 95% of your profit. The longer the odds the higher the % of your big win stays with the book.
Go Big Red!!
Tight as a drum to start the game. That's why I didn't mind the play in game with a bunch of dudes who've never played an NCAA Tourney game. If they started that tight in an 11 vs 6 game, they'd be down by 15 to 20 points at half.
Survive and advance
Thats what I texted my buddy, if this was Iowa, we are down 15 at half.
I cleaned up, and they didn’t shoot well. Let’s go!!! Pencil the Hoosiers in the bracket.
Check this out. Here is the calculation for UCLA's trip to the Final Four last year. The Bruins were fortunate enough to play Abilene Christian to reach the Sweet 16 and UCLA was -250 in that game.
So, UCLA paid 103 to 1 to reach the Final Four if you let it ride each game as opposed to just betting the pre-tourney odds (which were probably in the 40-50 to 1 range). That's with playing a #14 seed in the round of 32.
Now, check this out. This one shows what you would cash out if UCLA had beaten Gonzaga on Final Four Saturday.
That's 834 to 1 odds and they would still have the Championship game in front of them. Assuming UCLA would have been +500 vs Baylor, the payoff for a UCLA title last year would have paid 5,000 to 1 if you let it ride game by game (close to true odds) However, a post above said you should just bet IU to win the Title for 250 to 1 odds??? Bet game by game and you return 20 fold!
There's more complex math than that....as betting it up front ignores the probability that there would have been upsets where UCLA ended up playing another high seed and might have been a favorite in some matchups.
I do generally agree, though.. futures bets are typically big profit centers for books. Just like the prop bets at a casino game in craps or blackjack.
Yeah, there are permutations where the difference between a futures bet and a game-by-game parlay wouldn't be as stark. The UCLA example could have been even more disparate though, if they hadn't caught a bit of a break in playing #14 seed Abilene Christian in their third game.
I've looked through quite a few of these and I've yet to see an example where the futures bet was even close to being a decent bet compared to the game-by-game parlay. I haven't specifically looked for an easy path team either. I should check out the two Gonzaga runs to the title game because things fell pretty well for them both times.
IU was -200 so my 50 would now be 75. I’m gonna track this all the way to the final four. Because obviously, we are Going to the final four.
I’d say it probably has more to do with the relative sizes of the alumni bases, CMW/Indiana feel good story, and big ten tourney darling (team on a hot streak) … but keep believing in yourself … it’s good for the soul.
The 2002 Hoosiers would paid just under 300 to 1 on a game-by-game parlay had they beaten Maryland (based on point spread to ML conversion chart... not precise, but can't find ML's that far back). As a #5 seed that team probably wasn't more than 50 or 60 to 1 at most in pre-tourney futures. They were favored 3 times and caught a #12, a #13 and a #10 seed on their way to the Final Four. Still the game-by-game parlay would have been 5 times better than a futures bet
Edit- The 2002 Hoosiers entered the Tournament at 75 to 1 odds
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That doesn't surprise me. Prop bets are garbage (unless you are the book). But people like buying lottery tickets.
But I'm just going to say, your math is way off on your analysis.
Check this out. Here is the calculation for UCLA's trip to the Final Four last year. The Bruins were fortunate enough to play Abilene Christian to reach the Sweet 16 and UCLA was -250 in that game.
So, UCLA paid 103 to 1 to reach the Final Four if you let it ride each game as opposed to just betting the pre-tourney odds (which were probably in the 40-50 to 1 range). That's with playing a #14 seed in the round of 32.
Now, check this out. This one shows what you would cash out if UCLA had beaten Gonzaga on Final Four Saturday.
That's 834 to 1 odds and they would still have the Championship game in front of them. Assuming UCLA would have been +500 vs Baylor, the payoff for a UCLA title last year would have paid 5,000 to 1 if you let it ride game by game (close to true odds) However, a post above said you should just bet IU to win the Title for 250 to 1 odds??? Bet game by game and you return 20 fold!
Dude.... this is not what you think it is. Your logic on this is not at all correct. You are using a 6 team parlay calculator. This is way wrong.
Do it betting $100 on UCLA each game...carrying it forward for each game.
*Hint.... you'll have $235 to bet on G2.
Hopefully you see this before you lose your house this weekend.
I know exactly what it is... I just did it on IU in the Big 10 Tournament and I just did it tonight! I bet $200 on IU ML. My ticket is going to cash for $311.11, then I'm going to bet $311 on IU ML vs Saint Mary's at about +200. After I cash that ticket for $933, I'll bet that on IU vs UCLA.... and on and on it goes.
That's exactly what a parlay is... I'm just not going to have it on one card.
It'll hit you, if you think about it
No it's not at all. Making a bunch of ML bets independently is most certainly not a parlay.
You're going to need to reassess this.
Walk through the UCLA scenario starting at $100.
Okay... give me a minute and I'll show you. There are lots of ways to parlay than just the way you are thinking of.
Oh wait....I looked at your your final numbers wrong.....I was looking at you $83k number in your 2nd example.
Yes I think that sounds close to right. Roughly 100-1 for UCLA making the FF, betting it independently.
Of course what you need big balls on, is continually betting each round.... which is $3k or so on another ML bet at +260 on the E8 game. That's where most punters would walk. And you also need to figure out when you are going to quit. If you kept riding UCLA you'd have ended up at $0.
This is the known as the fallacy of backtesting in the financial world.
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So here's 2021 UCLA's run
Game 1 vs MSU- (+135) Lets say I bet $100 ML on UCLA... I cash $235
Game 2 vs BYU- (+145) I bet $235... I cash $575.75
Game 3 vs Abilene Christian- (-250) I bet 575... I cash $806.05
Game 4 vs Alabama- (+260)- I bet $806.... I cash $2901.78
Game 5 vs Michigan- (+260)- I bet 2901... I cash $10,446.41
Now UCLA has reached the Final Four and my original $100 bet has returned 103 to 1 odds. UCLA was 100 to 1 to win the National Championship in pre-tourney futures. So, I've already done better than that 100 to 1 to just reach the Final Four.
Game 6 vs Gonzaga- (+700)- I decide to go for it (but I could stop now, while the futures better can't) I bet $10,446.... and lose, but had I won I would have cashed for $83,571.
Now that's up to 835 to 1 vs the futures bettor's 100 to 1. I can stop now, but I don't have to.
Game 7 vs Baylor- (+500*)- I decide to go for it and bet $83,571... If UCLA cuts down the nets, I cash just over half a Million, while the futures bettor collects his 10k
Yes I agree with all of that, as I said above. But most people are never, ever going to bet that way. And I guarantee you wouldn't either..... betting $83k on the championship game? Lol. Or even $8k on the E8 game?
And what..... you are going to do this on one team only, and that's IU?
All a parlay is is a series of let-it-ride bets. They developed parlay cards because sometimes games are played at the same time, and besides who wants to stand there all day waiting to cash a ticket and the re-betting everything on the next event.
Most people do parlays on a group of point spread games all a -110, but you can most certainly do a ML parlay too... happens countless times every day during baseball season.
Most people do parlays on a group of point spread games all a -110, but you can most certainly do a ML parlay too... happens countless times every day during baseball season.
Yeah I watched a buddy go bankrupt betting round-robin parlays in baseball. He was fascinated with them until he busted out and ended up owing about $40k more than he had.
That's what people do every day on 6-8 team parlays, they just don't ever think about it. I don't know if I could pull the trigger once it got that big or not. But why in the hell would I agree to take a 10k payout on something that would pay half a million if I just do it one game at a time?
All I'm saying is if you're going to bet a couple hundred bucks on a future bet, why not take all the money you could win rather than leave 95% of it at the sportsbook? Even once it gets up to 83k, all you've got in it is that same hundy that you were going to bet ignorantly into a futures bet
Round Robins are just a way to explode your expense to feel better about your bet. You think you've got a safety net if you only lose 1 game, you'll still make something, but the cost of those warm fuzzies is huge!!
Well no.... you actually have $83k that's yours. You could try to convince yourself that it's house money... but it's not.
And you couldn't even place an $83k bet online, you'd have to fly to Vegas. It's why casinos have max bets on table games.
Number one rule in running any kind of gambling operation is to keep the bettor betting.
Of course people don't think that way when betting 6 team parlays. They are buying lottery tickets for small $.
That's all true, but going one game at a time I can stop whenever I want, or I could fly to vegas for a once in a lifetime bet. Futures bettors have no choice, but to see it through till the end and they are getting ripped off on top of it.
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