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2015 W-L Predictions

Not sure what to expect this year as far as records go, but one thing that has been constant with a Wilson coached team is that they never give up no matter what the score. If this team plays with that kind of intensity they can win 7 or 8 games. If morale goes into the pooper and the grumblings of firing the coach get around, I could also see a 2-10 season. Winning the early very winnable games will dictate how far this team goes. I always count on a couple of surprise games each year. If those games go positive, then this could be a very exciting year.
I can't wait to see Jordan Howard,Marquise Hawkins and Camion Patrick to see what they bring to the table.
 
WisslerIII said:
This is a loser attitude. If Wilson can't win in 5 years, he's not going to win. Lynch was 5-6 and beat PU. Wilson hasn't surpassed that since and last year was a disaster.

If he can't win, get someone in here who can. What happened to those fantastic recruiting classes everyone raves about? Surely a good coach can win with all that
Click to expand...
WisslerIII said:
This is a loser attitude. If Wilson can't win in 5 years, he's not going to win. Lynch was 5-6 and beat PU. Wilson hasn't surpassed that since and last year was a disaster.

If he can't win, get someone in here who can. What happened to those fantastic recruiting classes everyone raves about? Surely a good coach can win with all that talent......
Click to expand...


I disagree it is a "loser" attitude. I think it is an attitude that takes into account the realities of football and Indiana football and all football programs that are not historically Top 20 programs. "3-5 years to win or get fired" is a basketball process - not football, and its a Top 20 plan, not a "have not" plan.

Alabama, Ahia State, Michigan, etc. can and will hire the best coach on the market. They have fans who fight to get to games. We don't. They have boosters who pony up. We don't. If we win, we might develop that fan base and booster base, but TODAY - THIS year - we don't, and we shouldn't/can't act like we do.

The "known" and "proven" top coaches won't come to IU. They do not apply.

So if we pull another "Cam Cameron" and hire Wilson, let him OTJ on our dollar, then fire him as soon as he starts to know what he is doing, we can expect the same result.

The real "options" are:

1. Start over. The typical process is you lose 30+ players over the Spring, Summer and first post-firing season. Happened to DiNardo. Happened to Hep. Happened to Wilson. Are we gonna bet it would NOT happen to the next guy? (Might not at Alabama or Ahia State, but that's not what we are and we can't act like them.) So we have ANOTHER 5 year plan?

2. Scour the woods and find that "up and comer" who is the genius winner who can take Wilson's players and win immediately without the "burn down." Good luck. Who is that? Do we know? Are we guessing? Is there ANY sure thing out there?

3. Keep the guy who built the platform and ride him as far as he can take you. And with WIlson, I don't think we have seen his ceiling.

My factors are "are we improving"?
And when I watch us in a game, I see better talent top to bottom than in a long long while.
We have lost due to injury and a couple of mistakes, and because we weren't ready to play Navy.
That's the OTJ thing.
 
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TheSpa said:
What areas of "game day coaching" are you most unhappy with?
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I'ma jump in here.

I think our clock management is horrible.

I like FG's.

I think we take 4th down and 3-4-5 risks too often.

Not really a "game day coaching" thing but I'd like to see us commit to one kind of QB/offense - either a Tre-like offense or a Nate-like. I don;t think we are built for both at the same time. (Although I gotta admit that Petrino is pulling this off at UofL - he has packages for a guy who is like Hollywood (weaker arm/good feet) and for a guy like Nate (big arm/slow enough that a first down by QB run is an anomaly). and he's willing to play both at the same time (literally, one in the 1st quarter, the other in the 2nd and decide at halftime what to concentrate on in the second half.)
 
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BayernFan said:
Short of provable criminal conduct, IU should never fire Wilson. It's time for IU to do the opposite of what has gotten it in to the football abyss.
Click to expand...

Emphasis on "provable"...

gotta push the envelope
 
WisslerIII said:
This is a loser attitude. If Wilson can't win in 5 years, he's not going to win. Lynch was 5-6 and beat PU. Wilson hasn't surpassed that since and last year was a disaster.

If he can't win, get someone in here who can. What happened to those fantastic recruiting classes everyone raves about? Surely a good coach can win with all that talent......
Click to expand...
give me some names of who we can get.
 
I support what MTIOTF pointed out above regarding the 4th down gambles/versus taking the points with a field goal. The other issue with Wilson, and this doesn't get much play around here, is that he's certainly not a bright defensive mind....I know, I know, he's a bright offensive mind....anyway, IU's all time best coach, BM, was a very good defensive mind.

A lot of these posts about continuity, staying with Wilson etc., really do make sense. I've long held the belief that a coach has either proven himself after 4-5 years or he hasn't, but IU is in a different position. I don't really have quite the expectations of IU football anymore, that's really kind of sad. You really do become numb to the losing.

Without anymore whining from me, I'm behind Wilson for this year and probably next year. I am concerned about this current recruiting class, it doesn't look like it can compete in the BIG East???
 
The one and only year Wilson had adequate QB play, he made IU look pretty decent, and that was in spite of a horrible defense. I share the concerns of clock management and etc. with others, but I think we need to see a full season with solid QB play, and a defense that is merely average, not terrible, to really judge what the man's "ceiling" can be.

Before the first season even started, Wilson said "we will not win in this league with average QB play. It has got to be dynamic". In hindsight, that was a fairly prophetic summary of his tenure.
 
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td75 said:
I support what MTIOTF pointed out above regarding the 4th down gambles/versus taking the points with a field goal. The other issue with Wilson, and this doesn't get much play around here, is that he's certainly not a bright defensive mind....I know, I know, he's a bright offensive mind....anyway, IU's all time best coach, BM, was a very good defensive mind.

A lot of these posts about continuity, staying with Wilson etc., really do make sense. I've long held the belief that a coach has either proven himself after 4-5 years or he hasn't, but IU is in a different position. I don't really have quite the expectations of IU football anymore, that's really kind of sad. You really do become numb to the losing.

Without anymore whining from me, I'm behind Wilson for this year and probably next year. I am concerned about this current recruiting class, it doesn't look like it can compete in the BIG East???
Click to expand...

Though one thing to consider with this years recruiting class is that we finally developed the depth across the board that we can largely sit on them for 2-3 years before calling them into major action.
 
I really think 6 wins is doable, even probable. We won't be an easy win for anyone. Special teams, offense, and defense should be decent across the board. If we can get our WRs going (along with a TE threat), we are going to be difficult to stop. Our OL is going to maul some teams.

I agree with some of the comments on coaching and risk. Wilson has had to be a bit of a gambler in the past because our defense was so bad. I am convinced he understands the need for field position and playing the percentages. You will see a more conservative approach this year (but not too conservative).

Some of the comparisons to Lynch are just way off base. Wilson has definitely upgraded IU Football.
 
[QUOTE="iueyedoc99, post: 503139, member: 10792]

Before the first season even started, Wilson said "we will not win in this league with average QB play. It has got to be dynamic". In hindsight, that was a fairly prophetic summary of his tenure.[/QUOTE]

We all know what the Achilles Heel is at IU: DEFENSE

All good team, all bowl teams exist because of at least decent defense. Great QB play doesn't necessarily drive bowl participants. Even having just an average defense can get you closer to a bowl than any Antwaan Randel-El ever can by himself....and we all know how that worked out.
I will credit Wilson for trying to stockpile some talent there. Nobody before him could get "on paper" what he did till this point. Now, gotta produce.
 
The people who want to give CKW "one more year, maybe two" miss the point-WIlson realistically only has 12 more games to turn things around if he's in year 5 of a 7 year contract. Glass essentially has to make an "extend or replace" decision this November-December based on what Wilson's done to that point, not based on what he might or might not do in 2016 (without Sudfeld, no less). No coach can recruit effectively with only 2 years remaining on his contract.

And it's not like Glass has a strong track record when it comes to handing out contract extensions. I suspect the WKU game could tell us a lot about the program and Wilson's future in it.
 
WisslerIII said:
This is a loser attitude. If Wilson can't win in 5 years, he's not going to win. Lynch was 5-6 and beat PU. Wilson hasn't surpassed that since and last year was a disaster.

If he can't win, get someone in here who can. What happened to those fantastic recruiting classes everyone raves about? Surely a good coach can win with all that talent......
Click to expand...
Good God, I already said I don't really like making statements like that. I was responding to a post that said Wilson's ceiling is 3-4 wins, which is just false.
 
td75 said:
I support what MTIOTF pointed out above regarding the 4th down gambles/versus taking the points with a field goal. The other issue with Wilson, and this doesn't get much play around here, is that he's certainly not a bright defensive mind....I know, I know, he's a bright offensive mind....anyway, IU's all time best coach, BM, was a very good defensive mind.

A lot of these posts about continuity, staying with Wilson etc., really do make sense. I've long held the belief that a coach has either proven himself after 4-5 years or he hasn't, but IU is in a different position. I don't really have quite the expectations of IU football anymore, that's really kind of sad. You really do become numb to the losing.

Without anymore whining from me, I'm behind Wilson for this year and probably next year. I am concerned about this current recruiting class, it doesn't look like it can compete in the BIG East???
Click to expand...
This year's recruiting class??? The one that can't sign for 7 months???
 
welshman# said:
The people who want to give CKW "one more year, maybe two" miss the point-WIlson realistically only has 12 more games to turn things around if he's in year 5 of a 7 year contract. Glass essentially has to make an "extend or replace" decision this November-December based on what Wilson's done to that point, not based on what he might or might not do in 2016 (without Sudfeld, no less). No coach can recruit effectively with only 2 years remaining on his contract.

And it's not like Glass has a strong track record when it comes to handing out contract extensions. I suspect the WKU game could tell us a lot about the program and Wilson's future in it.
Click to expand...
november's too late. we need to extend him now.
 
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I think Wilson took over a program handicapped by the previous philosophy of "recruiting kids best suited to mid-major schools, redshirt them for their freshman year and bulk'em up and coach'em up." That clearly did not work and left us with a roster of players lacking the skill set or ability to play Big Ten football. I have long felt I could not fairly judge Wilson until his fifth season -- when every player from the previous regime was gone from the program and every player on the roster was recruited by Wilson and his team. So, for me, we're in Year Two for Wilson and, frankly, I agree that six wins are probable, seven wins are possible and eight wins might be within reach. I'm expecting a bowl game this year. If Wilson does not deliver, in my mind, his seat should begin to get warm.
 
RBB89 said:
Big Ten

Illinois: 3.5 (over -140, under +100)

Indiana: 6 (over +140, under -180)

Iowa: 7.5 (over -115, under -125)

Maryland: 4.5 (over -120, under -120)

Michigan: 7.5 (over -140, under +100)

Michigan State: 9.5 (over -140, under +100)

Minnesota: 5.5 (over -150, under +110)

Nebraska: 8 (over -120, under -120)

Northwestern: 6.5 (over +110, under -150)

Ohio State: 11 (over +100, under -140)

Penn State: 7.5 (over -135, under +105)

Purdue: 4 (over -145, under +105)

Rutgers: 5 (over -145, under +105)

Wisconsin: 10 (over +160, under -210)

http://mweb.cbssports.com/ncaaf/eye...mes-releases-2015-college-football-win-totals
Click to expand...

O/U is down to 5 for Indiana with "under" still being the slight favorite.
 
We can be one of the top 50-ish teams in the country (based on some statistician's numerical analysis) and still miss out on a bowl because of who we have on the conference schedule.

I'll say we have an even shot at 6-6 and an 80% chance of getting at least 5 wins. Unfortunately, 5 wins might as well be 3 wins.

I see these groupings: likely wins (SIU, FIU); good chance (WKU, RU, Wake); toss-ups (Iowa, PU); outside shot (PSU, Mich, Maryland); and unlikely (OSU, MSU).
 
TheSpa said:
I certainly understand your view, but IU will go backward quickly if Wilson is cut loose. And with the poor tradition and lack of fan support, they aren't likely to upgrade with a new coach.
Click to expand...
We've struggled in a big way for the last twenty years, and still pull in 40,000 a game. That's "poor fan support"?

We don't get support like Alabama does, but "poor fan support" considering how poor the team has been is a load of crap. Northwestern has poor fan support. We're average.
 
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MJE said:
We can be one of the top 50-ish teams in the country (based on some statistician's numerical analysis) and still miss out on a bowl because of who we have on the conference schedule.

I'll say we have an even shot at 6-6 and an 80% chance of getting at least 5 wins. Unfortunately, 5 wins might as well be 3 wins.

I see these groupings: likely wins (SIU, FIU); good chance (WKU, RU, Wake); toss-ups (Iowa, PU); outside shot (PSU, Mich, Maryland); and unlikely (OSU, MSU).
Click to expand...
We will absolutely not lose to Purdue this year. They are terrible.
 
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Oxford Collapse said:
We will absolutely not lose to Purdue this year. They are terrible.
Click to expand...

If at home, I might agree. However, we don't do well on the road, regardless of the opponent. Depends on momentum and what's on the line for both at season's end in the final game. I thought we had a great opportunity at Bowling Green last year and our defense didn't get off the bus. If we had a defense, I might agree with you.
 
Oxford Collapse said:
We've struggled in a big way for the last twenty years, and still pull in 40,000 a game. That's "poor fan support"?

We don't get support like Alabama does, but "poor fan support" considering how poor the team has been is a load of crap. Northwestern has poor fan support. We're average.
Click to expand...
They may announce 40,000, but there aren't 40,000 there. And the student support is horrible. They'd rather tailgate. NU is a quarter of the IU enrollment, so it's easy to see why they don't draw well. IU doesn't have that excuse.
 
TheSpa said:
They may announce 40,000, but there aren't 40,000 there. And the student support is horrible. They'd rather tailgate. NU is a quarter of the IU enrollment, so it's easy to see why they don't draw well. IU doesn't have that excuse.
Click to expand...
The fan support is exactly as good as we should expect given results, if not better.
 
TheSpa said:
They may announce 40,000, but there aren't 40,000 there. And the student support is horrible. They'd rather tailgate. NU is a quarter of the IU enrollment, so it's easy to see why they don't draw well. IU doesn't have that excuse.
Click to expand...
I hate empty seats, but he's right. Considering our history, it's not that bad. It hasn't been really, really bad except for like Dinardo's final year.
 
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NatiHoosier said:
In a perfect world (one where Sudfeld doesn't get hurt, and our defense plays to its max ability) what do you see as a realistic W-L record for our 2015 Hoosiers?
Click to expand...

Sudfeld isn't even that great. Put me in the 3-5 win category. Wilson will find a way to lose an early game or two. Big Ten season will be the usual. Find the right guy and build with him. The problem with IU fball is they don't hire the right guy. Hanging onto something not working is stupid. You will be perennially rebuilding.
 
5 wins , maybe 6. I don't have optimism to go beyond 6 wins. Been overly optimistic too many times in the past. Would be happy if CKW proves me wrong this year and we go bowling!
 
turney333 said:
in 2010 Lynch beat

1-10 Towson
2-10 WKU
1-11 Akron
4-8 Ark St (nearly lost this game)
4-8 Pur

Last year's "disaster" would have been competitive with if not beaten the 2010 IU team.
Click to expand...
Why cherry pick? There are other years to compare and Wilson's overall record in 4 years does not compare to Lynch's 4 years, if you're counting wins - and that's how they generally keep track.
 
gulcherboy said:
I think Wilson took over a program handicapped by the previous philosophy of "recruiting kids best suited to mid-major schools, redshirt them for their freshman year and bulk'em up and coach'em up." That clearly did not work and left us with a roster of players lacking the skill set or ability to play Big Ten football. I have long felt I could not fairly judge Wilson until his fifth season -- when every player from the previous regime was gone from the program and every player on the roster was recruited by Wilson and his team. So, for me, we're in Year Two for Wilson and, frankly, I agree that six wins are probable, seven wins are possible and eight wins might be within reach. I'm expecting a bowl game this year. If Wilson does not deliver, in my mind, his seat should begin to get warm.
Click to expand...
Do you blame Bush for Obama's failures too?
 
MyTeamIsOnTheFloor said:
I disagree it is a "loser" attitude. I think it is an attitude that takes into account the realities of football and Indiana football and all football programs that are not historically Top 20 programs. "3-5 years to win or get fired" is a basketball process - not football, and its a Top 20 plan, not a "have not" plan.

Alabama, Ahia State, Michigan, etc. can and will hire the best coach on the market. They have fans who fight to get to games. We don't. They have boosters who pony up. We don't. If we win, we might develop that fan base and booster base, but TODAY - THIS year - we don't, and we shouldn't/can't act like we do.

The "known" and "proven" top coaches won't come to IU. They do not apply.

So if we pull another "Cam Cameron" and hire Wilson, let him OTJ on our dollar, then fire him as soon as he starts to know what he is doing, we can expect the same result.

The real "options" are:

1. Start over. The typical process is you lose 30+ players over the Spring, Summer and first post-firing season. Happened to DiNardo. Happened to Hep. Happened to Wilson. Are we gonna bet it would NOT happen to the next guy? (Might not at Alabama or Ahia State, but that's not what we are and we can't act like them.) So we have ANOTHER 5 year plan?

2. Scour the woods and find that "up and comer" who is the genius winner who can take Wilson's players and win immediately without the "burn down." Good luck. Who is that? Do we know? Are we guessing? Is there ANY sure thing out there?

3. Keep the guy who built the platform and ride him as far as he can take you. And with WIlson, I don't think we have seen his ceiling.

My factors are "are we improving"?
And when I watch us in a game, I see better talent top to bottom than in a long long while.
We have lost due to injury and a couple of mistakes, and because we weren't ready to play Navy.
That's the OTJ thing.
Click to expand...

Minnesota fired a respected coach in Mason and got Jerry Kill - who knew about him? I dare say, not many. He certainly wasn't a 'name' coach. A good coach will show marked improvement in year 1 or 2, not year 5. If he has to have everything perfect to win, how likely is that to happen at IU? It took Mallory 3 years to get to a winning season. And that's before the league was diluted with the likes of Rutgers and Maryland.

For goodness sake, look at Northwestern - NORTHWESTERN - who hired Barnett and then Walker and got the program rebuilt in less than 5 years.

You can tell if a coach has 'it' in way less than 5 years.....
 
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Jerry Kill beat old "gum slinger" Bill Lynch in B-town with the Salukis of SIU.

2006.

Kill had been building a reputation for years.
 
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