Its time again for the 8th annual “Biggest waste of everyone’s time” post looking at the returning players across the Big Ten. It’s long… its boring…. Its subjective… it’s full of errors… but its here. Like your brother-in-law at the Labor Day picnic.
This year, I think this post is going to be even less helpful than usual in trying to sort out what’s going to happen in the Big Ten. Talent comes through the league in waves, and we’ve just seen a veritable tsunami of talent wash away. It’s a new day in terms of talent. Only two teams return the #1 offensive option they had last year (Bucky and Penn State), and several teams are looking at almost complete over-hauls. This sort of things makes seasons like this one exciting and hard to predict. Even beyond the incoming freshmen, there is, as usual, a group of players coming off redshirts (some medical, some disciplinary, some from transfers) that will make huge impacts. Some of these players like DJ White at IU and Carl Landry and David Teague at Purdue have some history in the league, so I’ve tried to include them in these lists. Others, like Tarrance Crump at Purdue and Lawrence MacKenzie at Minnesota don’t have any Big Ten experience yet, so they’ve been more or less left off.
As always, doing a preview that tries to put players into the traditional 1-5 positions (point guard, shooting guard, small forward, big forward, center) is stupid at the outset… because most of those positions don’t really exist anymore (if they ever did). The advent of early-entry into the NBA has radically changed the game in this regard… most kids with real size AND talent have gone straight to the NBA… so the true center is tough to find… and kids now seem bent on being exactly what you’d think they wouldn’t be anymore… 5-10 shooting guards… 6-3 low-post small forwards… 6-8 point guards… 6-11 small forwards on the wing… Most teams play with a couple of players that are pretty versatile and interchangeable, so you can have an off guard playing the point or a big forward playing center. For example, what position did Paul Davis play at MSU (yes, I know he’s gone, but I’m using him as an example)? You could argue that he played center, power forward or small forward depending on the definition and the situation in the game and who else was on the floor. There are a lot of guys like that in the league now, particularly when you start trying to decide who’s a shooting guard and who’s a small forward, or who’s a small forward (usually considered a “shooting forward” or a guy that can go out on the wing offensively AND defensively) and who’s a power forward and who’s a high-post center/forward. It’s nuts.
Because of all this, I’ve tended to cubbyhole players into positions that some may not agree with… invariably I get a dozen replies saying, “such-and-so is not a 2-guard!”… Hey… I’m trying okay? I considered renaming positions with random terms like “Bikini models” and “Ham Sandwiches”. Go with it for a few minutes.
Anyway… here we go. I’ve made mention of some new guys, but remember… this post focuses primarily on the players returning.
#1, Primary Ball Handlers (point guards)
1) Drew Neitzel, Michigan State
Easy choice. Partly because so many starting point guards left the league last year, but also because Neitzel has worked himself up into being the kind of assist-machine, pass-first point that most teams really like to have. He’s a smart player, who really knows where to get the ball to best work MSU’s offense. He led the Big Ten in assists last year (5.56 per game), but given what MSU has lost over the past three years (The list is scary, Ballinger, Anagoyne, Torbert, Anderson, Ager, Davis, Brown, Hill, etc, etc) I think it will be incumbent on Neitzel to step up his offensive production for the good of his relatively young team from his 8.3ppg figure last year.
2) Kammron Taylor, Bucky
Taylor might be the best player on any team in the Big Ten this year except his own. As with many players under Bo Ryan, Taylor has risen from relative obscurity as a recruit to become one of the most feared offensive guards in the league. He’s one of the top 5 returning scores (14.2ppg) and 3-point shooters (2.16mpg) in the league, and he’s a solid defender and assist man as well.
3) Jamar Butler, Ohio State
The focus at tOSU this year is primarily on the new kids coming in, and rightly so, as that is a monster class, AND it has some drama associated with it as well, but Brutus can field a relatively veteran and competitive team as well, particularly in the backcourt. Butler was second in the league last year in assists (4.65apg) and has become a competent offensive player, he is top-5 returning in 3-point percentage (.414) and he’s a returning double-figure scorer as well (10.1ppg).
The Pack
Once you get into the pack, it becomes pretty subjective as to who might be the next best. I keep going back to Ben Luber at Penn State. Luber averaged 4.45 assists per game last year and scored almost 8 points per game as well. He’s experienced and he can lead his team pretty well. PSU also has David Jackson, who emerged from a guard-deep team to be a starter and a top-5 returning assist man himself as a frosh last year (2.87apg). Dion Harris at Michigan should probably supplant the departed Daniel Horton as the lead guard for the Wolverines. Harris filled in fairly well for Horton when Horton was suspended and injured. The trouble is, point guard is probably not Harris’s best position. He’s more of an off guard. His offensive game seems to struggle when he’s asked to do too much as the distributor. Sophomore Jerret Smith might also take time as the Wolverine’s point guard. Indiana will certainly go with JC senior Earl Calloway. Calloway emerged at the end of train-wreck that was the Mike Davis era to show some real promise as a point guard. His biggest issues will be consistency and controlling his game. His only back up is a true frosh, so he’ll need to be on the floor a lot. Illinois will probably go with a three-headed guard line-up again this year; the point will most likely be handled by one of two sophomores, Jamar Smith or Chester Frazier. Smith is the deadlier offensive player (one of the best 3-point shooters in the league last year as a freshman), but Frazier might have better point instincts. Purdue will go with redshirt JC Tarrance Crump, who would have certainly started last year but for a disciplinary redshirt. Crump was a JC All-American who Purdue will rely on heavily, behind Crump; two players tossed to the wolves last year at the spot were Chris Hartley and Chris Lutz. Minnesota will also be relying on a new player… Oklahoma transfer Lawrence MacKenzie is coming home (what is it with Minnesota players leaving the state and then returning to play there?) and will almost certainly be the point guard, as there is nothing left of the Gopher’s backcourt. Iowa is similarly decimated by graduations and transfers, and with the comings and goings this off season, its next to impossible to figure out who is actually going to be suiting up for the Hawkeyes this year. Tony Freeman is the returning player best suited to playing the point for Iowa, and he’ll probably get a good long look. Freeman played in all 34 games for the Hawkeyes last year and played reasonably well for a true frosh. Northwestern’s leading assist man last year was also one of the 5 best in terms or returning assists in the league. Trouble is, he’s really a swing forward/guard (Tim Doyle). Northwestern relies on assists from most of its players because of the nature of the system they run, so Doyle is fine in his role. Craig Moore, a true frosh last year, might get the bulk of the point guard minutes for Northwestern.
#2, Wing Guard (Off guard, shooting guard, etc)
1) Geary Claxton, Penn State
I know, I know… how dare I pick a Nittany Lion as the best anything. And it can be argued that Claxton is as much a forward as he is a guard, but that’s the nature of this position any more it seems. But here’s the deal. Claxton (Speedy’s brother from the NBA) is the second leading returning scorer in the league (15.2ppg) and he’s the leading rebounder in the league returning (7.5) AND Penn State has a wonderful small forward already in Jamelle Cornley. So to me, Claxton is a guard (he handles the ball a lot) and he’s as good as you get here. He’s a strong defender as well.
2) Lester Abram, Michigan
“Is he STILL playing?”. Yes. Medical redshirt. When he’s healthy, Abram is a terrific player and he should be the focus of the Wolverine’s offense. When he was last healthy (Nixon was still president, I think) he was the best player on a talented Wolverines team. The only question now will be how healthy is he and can he regain his form?
3) Rich McBride, Illinois
McBride has played all of his career at Illinois in the shadow of their terrific run of guards lately… Head, Williams, and Brown. Now he’s going to be “the guy” in the Illini backcourt. McBride might be the best all-around 3-point shooter in the league as he is the leading returning 3-point shooter in made-per-game (2.52) and top-5 returning in percentage (.403), he’s also a tough defender and good with the ball.
The Pack
Just maybe the smallest tick behind McBride is Ron Lewis at tOSU. Lewis was a transfer to Brutus last year and he’s returning as an experienced strong offensive player (10.1ppg). Purdue returns David Teague from an injury redshirt. Teague was an accomplished scorer when he was healthy, and the Boilermakers will hope he returns to form (14ppg and a top 3-point shooter). Iowa will go with Mike Henderson, one of only two returning starters for Alford, who will hopefully help steady what will be a young and inexperienced team otherwise. Northwestern’s best player returns at this spot, Tim Doyle, who led the team in assists and who scored 8 points per game. Highly regarded Sterling Williams also plays this spot for Northwestern. IU comes back with former 6th-man Rod Wilmont, who was one of the most efficient scorers in the league as a backup. Wilmont is also a decent defender, so it should be interesting what the 5th-year senior can do as a full-time starter this year. IU is also still waiting for the breakout of AJ Ratliff at this spot. The former top-100 guard suffered under the confused coaching of Mike Davis. Bucky is likely to rely on one of its incoming freshmen guards here, as the one weakness they have is guard depth. Michael Flowers has played a lot of minutes for them. MSU is in much the same boat as Bucky. They may rely on a new kid here, as the only other guard with any experience to speak of is Travis Walton, who is really more of a point guard and who will back up Neitzel. Your guess is as good as mine as to what Minnesota will do, Jamal Abu-Shamala played some minutes last year to get some experience, and he’s a good bet, though its possible a new player could take this spot as well.
#3 Wing forward (Small forward, etc)
1) Alando Tucker, Bucky
Best player in the league at any position. Tucker is the top returning scorer (19.0ppg) by a huge margin. He’s also one of the top-5 returning rebounders (5.7rpg). He has had a history of nagging injuries, but as long as he stays healthy, his inside-outside game will make Bucky a potential top-10 team nationally. Another name to watch in Madison is sophomore Joe Krabbenhoft, who is very talented and very versatile. Also, Marcus Landry, Carl’s brother, will be back. This is depth.
2) Adam Haluska, Iowa
Haluska is a very good, very heady player who will be the hands-down leader of an Iowa team in deep transition this year. Look for his offensive numbers to really increase (13.9ppg), as he becomes the Hawkeye’s offensive focus.
3) Brian Randle, Illinois
Randle will now move out of the shadow of the other offensive focuses at Illinois, like Dee Brown and James Augustine, to become a true focus himself. He played a great deal last year and quietly averaged 8.5 ppg and was one of the better percentage shooters in the league (.519). He’s the guy I suspect will be the new star in the Big Ten soon.
The Pack
Next in line is probably Jamelle Cornley at Penn State. Cornley came out of nowhere last year as a freshman to become one of the top-5 returning scorers (11.4ppg,), rebounders (5.7rpg), and field goal shooters (.513). If he improves as a sophomore he’ll be a very difficult matchup. Michigan returns Ronald Coleman, whose stats dipped a bit as a Soph, but who is still a very talented player. MSU brings back Marquis Gray, a very talented and likable player who has yet to live up to his hype. Last year particularly he was horrid from the FT line (.368). Gray might swing over to the PF spot for a new player to step in. Brutus returns the enigmatic Ivan Harris, who most people thought was going to be a monster when he came in as a top-10 recruit. He has become a wing forward and last year saw his playing time and his stats decline. Honestly, Brutus may go with one of the uber-talented freshmen coming in this fall. With the sudden departure of Purdue’s promising freshman Nate Minnoy, who is a bull of a player, though pretty short for a forward, this spot is probably wide open in West Lafayette, but a potential player may be Gordon Watt, who went on the over-seas trip with the Big Ten team this summer. Minnesota returns Zach Puchtel, who showed some spark late in the year last year, but really, this spot will probably be up for grabs in Minneapolis. Indiana will also certainly rely on either a three-guard lineup with AJ Ratliff joining Wilmont and Calloway, or one of their JC players coming in, probably Lance Stemler. Northwestern will almost assuredly also either go with a combination of guards (Doyle, Moore, Williams) or add a new face.
#4 Low post forward (power forward, etc)
1) DJ White, Indiana
This was a very, very tough pick. Not only is White technically not a returning player since he really didn’t play much at all last year while recovering from his foot injury, but there are other guys at this spot who might be nearly as good. White is certainly a gifted low-post forward when he’s healthy. He’s smooth and powerful and plays within himself. He’s also a good defender, and he only played one year, his freshman season, when he was named the Freshman of the year in the Big Ten. The fear for IU fans is his health. The type of injury he had (stress fracture of the foot) is tough to recover from, and the fact he had two in short order is a scary sign. But if he’s fully healthy and bulked up, he can be an All American… though he does need to boost his rebounding numbers a lot.
2) Carl Landry, Purdue
If I’m going to pick White, I have to pick Landry as well. Both guys are coming off injury redshirt seasons, but both guys were stars in the league the year before. Landry averaged nearly 19 points per game when he was last healthy, and over 7 boards. Though he might be a little smaller than some people like in a PF, he certainly gets the job done.
3) Brian Butch, Bucky
What is Butch? He was a 7’0” McD’s AA center coming out of high school. Now he’s a 6’11” forward/high-post player at Bucky. He’s a tough one to classify. He shot as many 3’s as guard Mike Flowers (68), but he also led the team in blocked shots and he was the second leading returning rebounder in the Big Ten (6.0). He’s a kid who seems to be getting better in increments and who may eventually reach the hype he had coming out of high school. He will be a nightmarish matchup for everyone in the Big Ten this year, I suspect. The worst thing about Bucky is that not only do they have Butch, but they also have Jason Chappell, who started every game for them, back as well. And neither of these guys will HAVE to play a true center if they don’t want to, as Bucky also returns true center Greg Steimsma.
The Pack
Shaun Pruitt at Illinois is another kid waiting to break out now that the last remnants of that great Illinois team are gone. He started every game for Illinois last year and averaged a respectable 5 boards and 6 points as the 5th option. Illinois also returns Warren Carter and Marcus Arnold, the later being something of a let down from the hype he had transferring in from Illinois State. If he has adjusted to Big Ten play, he might be a factor. Minnesota will rely on Dan Coleman who is a strong defender and who averaged over 7 points per game on a guard strong team last year. Michigan returns Brent Petway, a powerful and athletic player who had some off-court issues; he may get a push from a new name. Ohio State returns Matt Terwilliger, who showed some promise last year and whom a JC player may push this season. MSU as usual has a bevy of big bodies to choose from. If Gray doesn’t become the PF, they can go with Idong Ibok, Goran Sutan, Drew Naymick, or Delco Rowley, none of whom really distinguished themselves a lot last year, but certainly one of them should rise from the pack this season… probably Sutan or Naymick. Penn State will probably go small and use a bunch of guards along with Claxton and Cornley, and Milos Bogetic as their one true post guy. Brandon Hassell could see some time as well. Bernard Cote, a Kentucky transfer, played a fair amount for Northwestern last year, but he didn’t really distinguish himself. His improvement could really help the Wildcats. Iowa is going to be going with a new face this year… they return next to nothing in the front court.
#5 Center
1) Courtney Sims, Michigan
The honest truth is, only 6 or 7 teams in the Big Ten actually play with a real center. And not all of those have centers that will play a lot. Most teams will go with a combination of forwards. And, if he actually ever plays, the best center in the Big Ten will certainly be incoming freshman Greg Oden at Ohio State, but leaving all that out, Sims is the best bet here, even though I still think he might be really more of a power forward. Sims is big and strong and he has experience. Look for his numbers (11ppg and 6rpg) to improve.
2) Spencer Tollackson, Minnesota
Still young, Tollackson has shown flashes of real talent. He has very nice fundamentals for a kid his age, and now that Vincent Grier and Maurice Hargrow are gone, he should be much more of a focus in the Gopher’s plans. Like Sims, look for him to improve on his scoring (8.1 ppg) and rebounding (4.1 rpg).
3) Seth Gorney, Iowa
I’m probably going out on a limb here, but honestly, there are not a lot of centers in the league. Gorney is still very raw and very young, and probably a year or so away from making any real impact, but Iowa has a reputation for putting good centers on the floor, and if they’re going to keep that up, Gorney is next in line.
The Pack
Well, there’s not much. Michigan State will play either Drew Naymick or Goran Sutan, both of whom are as much power forwards, as they are centers (like Sims at Michigan). Sutan in particular might be a player to keep your eyes on. Vince Scott is still around at Northwestern, and he’ll probably get a fair amount of playing time. Greg Steimsma at Bucky looks to be a pretty good player, if he can keep himself on the court. Injures and academics have hampered his development, but if he can get his act together, he could be a big factor for Bucky. This brings us to Greg Oden at tOSU. He’s a new player, but I kinda feel like I need to at least mention him given he’d have been the #1 pick in the NBA draft each of the last 2 seasons. If he plays for Brutus, he will be the #1 guy, like I said, and Ohio State will be a dominant team. If you put a gun to my head and made me bat, I’m have to put my money on Oden not playing a game for Ohio State. But we shall see.
The Rankings
Best Bench
1) Bucky
2) Illinois
3) Michigan
Best Backcourt
1) Penn State
2) Illinois
3) Michigan
4) Ohio State
Best Frontcourt
1) Bucky
2) Illinois
3) Minnesota
4) Michigan
All Settles/Eschmeyer (guys who seem to have been playing for a decade)
1) Lester Abram
2) Alando Tucker
3) Vince Scott
4) David Teague
5) Ben Luber
Preseason POTY candidates
1) Alando Tucker
2) DJ White
3) Carl Landry
4) Drew Neitzel
5) Brian Randle
6) Greg Oden
7) Adam Haluska
Best Looking Cheerleaders
Always a tough call. This year I go with Illinois.
Returning numbers
Returning minutes played:
1. Penn State……………….85%
2. Bucky……………………83%
3. Illinois……………………66%
4. Michigan…………………60%
5. Northwestern…………….56%
6. Michigan State…………..44%
7. Purdue……………………44%
8. Iowa………………………41%
9. Indiana……………………40%
10. Minnesota…………………39%
11. Ohio State………………….37%
In the six or seven years I’ve been doing this I’ve never seen aggregate numbers this low. To give you some idea, last year seven teams in the Big Ten returned 70% of their minutes from the year before, and the lowest number was in the mid 40’s. This only serves, I think, to hammer home the point that is a brand new Big Ten this year… a huge wave of players is gone now, and we’re on new footing around the league this season. This makes all these numbers tough to analyze… and again, this does not take into account kids like DJ White or Carl Landry or David Teague or a handful of others, to say nothing of Greg Oden. I think you can look at this and say Bucky is going to be really good, Penn State and Illinois might be better than you expect, and OSU has plenty of playing time for their monster recruiting class.
Returning shot attempts:
1. Bucky………………….91%
2. Penn State………………82%
3. Illinois………………….61%
4. Michigan……………….58%
5. Northwestern……………47%
6. Purdue…………………..41%
7. Iowa…………………….39%
8. Indiana…………………..37%
9. Minnesota………………..35%
10. Ohio State………………..34%
11. Michigan State…………...28%
The low-number trend continues… I went back and I cannot find a record of a team ever returning less than 35% of anything ever. That insanely low MSU number, I think, is reflective of a team that’s sent a huge number of players to the NBA over the past couple of years. This should be a wild year in East Lansing. I think those top 4 schools pretty well know who’s going to be taking the shots for them this year… after that it sort of becomes a crap shoot. Only Bucky and Penn State return their #1 options this year. Sadly, Bucky returns their top 4 options.
Returning Rebounding:
1. Bucky………………..95%
2. Penn State……………84%
3. Illinois………………..66%
4. Michigan……………..59%
5. Northwestern…………59%
6. Minnesota…………….50%
7. Indiana………………..43%
8. Michigan State………..43%
9. Purdue…………………41%
10. Iowa……………………28%
11. Ohio State……………..25%
No more Terrance Dials, obviously. I tend to use this as a measure of who might be more or less solid in the front court. Obviously, it’s not perfect, but it does tell you who’s going to be playing younger or less-tested kids up front in general. This is going to be Iowa’s huge weakness this season. Notice Illinois hangs tough just below the top-2… That’s going to be important, I think.
Returning Assists:
1. Bucky…………….89%
2. Penn State………..89%
3. Northwestern……..64%
4. Michigan State……59%
5. Illinois…………….50%
6. Michigan………….50%
7. Purdue…………….46%
8. Ohio State…………41%
9. Iowa……………….41%
10. Indiana…………….33%
11. Minnesota………….20%
To me, this is the most interesting and telling of all the categories this year… It’s the one that looks least like the other ones. Notice MSU leaps from the bottom of all the other categories up to the top 5, and Illinois drops some. OSU and Northwestern move up some here as well, while IU falls. I usually use this one to gauge backcourt strength, and to me, seniors in the backcourt count double what seniors in the front court count… if I have to have kids, I want them up front not handling the ball a lot. The one thing MSU has going for them this year is Neitzel, and that is reflected here. Same with OSU. I know 41% is low, but its not awful in comparison to what others have, and it means they have options should a kid like Conley have the freshman jitters. I think Northwestern’s high score here is indicative of the type of game they play. Illinois drops because they lost Dee Brown. To me, these numbers tend to skew the low MSU numbers up, due to the experience of Neitzel, and they skew the Illinois numbers down due to the loss of Brown. And I worry less about OSU being hurt by youth. That Minnesota number is probably the lowest returning aggregate in history.
Returning total points:
1. Bucky……………….91%
2. Penn State…………..82%
3. Illinois………………60%
4. Michigan……………57%
5. Northwestern………..44%
6. Iowa…………………39%
7. Purdue……………….39%
8. Ohio State……………36%
9. Minnesota……………36%
10. Indiana……………….35%
11. Michigan State……….24%
Plain and simple… Bucky and Penn State have their offenses in place. No one else does. This will be a HUGE year to look at and evaluate the new comers and the guys coming off redshirts. And there are a lot of them to look at. From an Indiana perspective, I think this ought to give us some heart in that while our numbers are awfully low, at least we’re not the only team in the bottom of the bucket. A lot of teams have a lot of question marks.
However, I think right now this ought to give some people a little bit of a pause on the “top 3 in the B10” thing… We have quite an uphill battle to fight to get that #3 spot. Right now, I gotta think that’s reserved for either Illinois, Michigan or Michigan State.
Individual returning numbers
Here again, the numbers make it obvious how much talent left the league last year. And also the number of talented kids that didn’t play all year, like White and Landry.
Top 5 returning scorers:
1. Tucker, Wisc……………19.0
2. Claxton, PSU……………15.2
3. Taylor, Wisc…………….14.2
4. Haluska, Iowa……………13.9
5. Cornley, PSU……………11.4
I bet the PSU guys surprised some folks, they did me to some extent. However, to show how much talent left, Cornley, who is the #5 returning scorer was the 24th over all scorer last year… four fifths of the scoring leaders left.
Top 5 returning rebounders:
1. Claxton, PSU………………..7.5
2. Butch, Wisc………………….6.0
3. Sims, Mich……………………5.7
4. Tucker, Wisc………………….5.7
5. Cornley, PSU…………………5.7
The league lost a TON of rebounding strength.
Top 5 returning assists:
1. Neitzel, MSU…………. 5.56
2. Butler, OSU…………… 4.65
3. Luber, PSU……………. 4.45
4. Doyle, NU…………….. 3.79
5. Jackson, PSU………….. 2.87
The top 3 over all assist leaders last year all return.
Top 5 returning 3-point shooters (in terms of made per game):
1. McBride, Ill………………2.52
2. Harris, Mich………………2.28
3. Taylor, Wisc………………2.16
4. Smith, Ill………………….2.06
5. Lutz, PU…………………..1.89
Illinois will be a tough outside shooting team.
Top 5 returning 3-point shooters (in terms of percentage):
1. Smith, Ill…………………….482
2. Luber, PSU………………….448
3. Butler, OSU…………………414
4. Neitzel, MSU………………..404
5. McBride, Ill………………….403
Top 5 returning shooting percentages:
1. Sims, Mich……………………633
2. Tollackson, Min………………570
3. Randle, Ill……………………..519
4. Cornley, PSU………………….513
5. Doyle, NU……………………..503
Here again…. Notice not a single IU name
This post was edited on 9/7 10:25 AM by clubjockeyif(GetAdminCookie() != 0) {document.write(' (Revisions[/URL])');}
This year, I think this post is going to be even less helpful than usual in trying to sort out what’s going to happen in the Big Ten. Talent comes through the league in waves, and we’ve just seen a veritable tsunami of talent wash away. It’s a new day in terms of talent. Only two teams return the #1 offensive option they had last year (Bucky and Penn State), and several teams are looking at almost complete over-hauls. This sort of things makes seasons like this one exciting and hard to predict. Even beyond the incoming freshmen, there is, as usual, a group of players coming off redshirts (some medical, some disciplinary, some from transfers) that will make huge impacts. Some of these players like DJ White at IU and Carl Landry and David Teague at Purdue have some history in the league, so I’ve tried to include them in these lists. Others, like Tarrance Crump at Purdue and Lawrence MacKenzie at Minnesota don’t have any Big Ten experience yet, so they’ve been more or less left off.
As always, doing a preview that tries to put players into the traditional 1-5 positions (point guard, shooting guard, small forward, big forward, center) is stupid at the outset… because most of those positions don’t really exist anymore (if they ever did). The advent of early-entry into the NBA has radically changed the game in this regard… most kids with real size AND talent have gone straight to the NBA… so the true center is tough to find… and kids now seem bent on being exactly what you’d think they wouldn’t be anymore… 5-10 shooting guards… 6-3 low-post small forwards… 6-8 point guards… 6-11 small forwards on the wing… Most teams play with a couple of players that are pretty versatile and interchangeable, so you can have an off guard playing the point or a big forward playing center. For example, what position did Paul Davis play at MSU (yes, I know he’s gone, but I’m using him as an example)? You could argue that he played center, power forward or small forward depending on the definition and the situation in the game and who else was on the floor. There are a lot of guys like that in the league now, particularly when you start trying to decide who’s a shooting guard and who’s a small forward, or who’s a small forward (usually considered a “shooting forward” or a guy that can go out on the wing offensively AND defensively) and who’s a power forward and who’s a high-post center/forward. It’s nuts.
Because of all this, I’ve tended to cubbyhole players into positions that some may not agree with… invariably I get a dozen replies saying, “such-and-so is not a 2-guard!”… Hey… I’m trying okay? I considered renaming positions with random terms like “Bikini models” and “Ham Sandwiches”. Go with it for a few minutes.
Anyway… here we go. I’ve made mention of some new guys, but remember… this post focuses primarily on the players returning.
#1, Primary Ball Handlers (point guards)
1) Drew Neitzel, Michigan State
Easy choice. Partly because so many starting point guards left the league last year, but also because Neitzel has worked himself up into being the kind of assist-machine, pass-first point that most teams really like to have. He’s a smart player, who really knows where to get the ball to best work MSU’s offense. He led the Big Ten in assists last year (5.56 per game), but given what MSU has lost over the past three years (The list is scary, Ballinger, Anagoyne, Torbert, Anderson, Ager, Davis, Brown, Hill, etc, etc) I think it will be incumbent on Neitzel to step up his offensive production for the good of his relatively young team from his 8.3ppg figure last year.
2) Kammron Taylor, Bucky
Taylor might be the best player on any team in the Big Ten this year except his own. As with many players under Bo Ryan, Taylor has risen from relative obscurity as a recruit to become one of the most feared offensive guards in the league. He’s one of the top 5 returning scores (14.2ppg) and 3-point shooters (2.16mpg) in the league, and he’s a solid defender and assist man as well.
3) Jamar Butler, Ohio State
The focus at tOSU this year is primarily on the new kids coming in, and rightly so, as that is a monster class, AND it has some drama associated with it as well, but Brutus can field a relatively veteran and competitive team as well, particularly in the backcourt. Butler was second in the league last year in assists (4.65apg) and has become a competent offensive player, he is top-5 returning in 3-point percentage (.414) and he’s a returning double-figure scorer as well (10.1ppg).
The Pack
Once you get into the pack, it becomes pretty subjective as to who might be the next best. I keep going back to Ben Luber at Penn State. Luber averaged 4.45 assists per game last year and scored almost 8 points per game as well. He’s experienced and he can lead his team pretty well. PSU also has David Jackson, who emerged from a guard-deep team to be a starter and a top-5 returning assist man himself as a frosh last year (2.87apg). Dion Harris at Michigan should probably supplant the departed Daniel Horton as the lead guard for the Wolverines. Harris filled in fairly well for Horton when Horton was suspended and injured. The trouble is, point guard is probably not Harris’s best position. He’s more of an off guard. His offensive game seems to struggle when he’s asked to do too much as the distributor. Sophomore Jerret Smith might also take time as the Wolverine’s point guard. Indiana will certainly go with JC senior Earl Calloway. Calloway emerged at the end of train-wreck that was the Mike Davis era to show some real promise as a point guard. His biggest issues will be consistency and controlling his game. His only back up is a true frosh, so he’ll need to be on the floor a lot. Illinois will probably go with a three-headed guard line-up again this year; the point will most likely be handled by one of two sophomores, Jamar Smith or Chester Frazier. Smith is the deadlier offensive player (one of the best 3-point shooters in the league last year as a freshman), but Frazier might have better point instincts. Purdue will go with redshirt JC Tarrance Crump, who would have certainly started last year but for a disciplinary redshirt. Crump was a JC All-American who Purdue will rely on heavily, behind Crump; two players tossed to the wolves last year at the spot were Chris Hartley and Chris Lutz. Minnesota will also be relying on a new player… Oklahoma transfer Lawrence MacKenzie is coming home (what is it with Minnesota players leaving the state and then returning to play there?) and will almost certainly be the point guard, as there is nothing left of the Gopher’s backcourt. Iowa is similarly decimated by graduations and transfers, and with the comings and goings this off season, its next to impossible to figure out who is actually going to be suiting up for the Hawkeyes this year. Tony Freeman is the returning player best suited to playing the point for Iowa, and he’ll probably get a good long look. Freeman played in all 34 games for the Hawkeyes last year and played reasonably well for a true frosh. Northwestern’s leading assist man last year was also one of the 5 best in terms or returning assists in the league. Trouble is, he’s really a swing forward/guard (Tim Doyle). Northwestern relies on assists from most of its players because of the nature of the system they run, so Doyle is fine in his role. Craig Moore, a true frosh last year, might get the bulk of the point guard minutes for Northwestern.
#2, Wing Guard (Off guard, shooting guard, etc)
1) Geary Claxton, Penn State
I know, I know… how dare I pick a Nittany Lion as the best anything. And it can be argued that Claxton is as much a forward as he is a guard, but that’s the nature of this position any more it seems. But here’s the deal. Claxton (Speedy’s brother from the NBA) is the second leading returning scorer in the league (15.2ppg) and he’s the leading rebounder in the league returning (7.5) AND Penn State has a wonderful small forward already in Jamelle Cornley. So to me, Claxton is a guard (he handles the ball a lot) and he’s as good as you get here. He’s a strong defender as well.
2) Lester Abram, Michigan
“Is he STILL playing?”. Yes. Medical redshirt. When he’s healthy, Abram is a terrific player and he should be the focus of the Wolverine’s offense. When he was last healthy (Nixon was still president, I think) he was the best player on a talented Wolverines team. The only question now will be how healthy is he and can he regain his form?
3) Rich McBride, Illinois
McBride has played all of his career at Illinois in the shadow of their terrific run of guards lately… Head, Williams, and Brown. Now he’s going to be “the guy” in the Illini backcourt. McBride might be the best all-around 3-point shooter in the league as he is the leading returning 3-point shooter in made-per-game (2.52) and top-5 returning in percentage (.403), he’s also a tough defender and good with the ball.
The Pack
Just maybe the smallest tick behind McBride is Ron Lewis at tOSU. Lewis was a transfer to Brutus last year and he’s returning as an experienced strong offensive player (10.1ppg). Purdue returns David Teague from an injury redshirt. Teague was an accomplished scorer when he was healthy, and the Boilermakers will hope he returns to form (14ppg and a top 3-point shooter). Iowa will go with Mike Henderson, one of only two returning starters for Alford, who will hopefully help steady what will be a young and inexperienced team otherwise. Northwestern’s best player returns at this spot, Tim Doyle, who led the team in assists and who scored 8 points per game. Highly regarded Sterling Williams also plays this spot for Northwestern. IU comes back with former 6th-man Rod Wilmont, who was one of the most efficient scorers in the league as a backup. Wilmont is also a decent defender, so it should be interesting what the 5th-year senior can do as a full-time starter this year. IU is also still waiting for the breakout of AJ Ratliff at this spot. The former top-100 guard suffered under the confused coaching of Mike Davis. Bucky is likely to rely on one of its incoming freshmen guards here, as the one weakness they have is guard depth. Michael Flowers has played a lot of minutes for them. MSU is in much the same boat as Bucky. They may rely on a new kid here, as the only other guard with any experience to speak of is Travis Walton, who is really more of a point guard and who will back up Neitzel. Your guess is as good as mine as to what Minnesota will do, Jamal Abu-Shamala played some minutes last year to get some experience, and he’s a good bet, though its possible a new player could take this spot as well.
#3 Wing forward (Small forward, etc)
1) Alando Tucker, Bucky
Best player in the league at any position. Tucker is the top returning scorer (19.0ppg) by a huge margin. He’s also one of the top-5 returning rebounders (5.7rpg). He has had a history of nagging injuries, but as long as he stays healthy, his inside-outside game will make Bucky a potential top-10 team nationally. Another name to watch in Madison is sophomore Joe Krabbenhoft, who is very talented and very versatile. Also, Marcus Landry, Carl’s brother, will be back. This is depth.
2) Adam Haluska, Iowa
Haluska is a very good, very heady player who will be the hands-down leader of an Iowa team in deep transition this year. Look for his offensive numbers to really increase (13.9ppg), as he becomes the Hawkeye’s offensive focus.
3) Brian Randle, Illinois
Randle will now move out of the shadow of the other offensive focuses at Illinois, like Dee Brown and James Augustine, to become a true focus himself. He played a great deal last year and quietly averaged 8.5 ppg and was one of the better percentage shooters in the league (.519). He’s the guy I suspect will be the new star in the Big Ten soon.
The Pack
Next in line is probably Jamelle Cornley at Penn State. Cornley came out of nowhere last year as a freshman to become one of the top-5 returning scorers (11.4ppg,), rebounders (5.7rpg), and field goal shooters (.513). If he improves as a sophomore he’ll be a very difficult matchup. Michigan returns Ronald Coleman, whose stats dipped a bit as a Soph, but who is still a very talented player. MSU brings back Marquis Gray, a very talented and likable player who has yet to live up to his hype. Last year particularly he was horrid from the FT line (.368). Gray might swing over to the PF spot for a new player to step in. Brutus returns the enigmatic Ivan Harris, who most people thought was going to be a monster when he came in as a top-10 recruit. He has become a wing forward and last year saw his playing time and his stats decline. Honestly, Brutus may go with one of the uber-talented freshmen coming in this fall. With the sudden departure of Purdue’s promising freshman Nate Minnoy, who is a bull of a player, though pretty short for a forward, this spot is probably wide open in West Lafayette, but a potential player may be Gordon Watt, who went on the over-seas trip with the Big Ten team this summer. Minnesota returns Zach Puchtel, who showed some spark late in the year last year, but really, this spot will probably be up for grabs in Minneapolis. Indiana will also certainly rely on either a three-guard lineup with AJ Ratliff joining Wilmont and Calloway, or one of their JC players coming in, probably Lance Stemler. Northwestern will almost assuredly also either go with a combination of guards (Doyle, Moore, Williams) or add a new face.
#4 Low post forward (power forward, etc)
1) DJ White, Indiana
This was a very, very tough pick. Not only is White technically not a returning player since he really didn’t play much at all last year while recovering from his foot injury, but there are other guys at this spot who might be nearly as good. White is certainly a gifted low-post forward when he’s healthy. He’s smooth and powerful and plays within himself. He’s also a good defender, and he only played one year, his freshman season, when he was named the Freshman of the year in the Big Ten. The fear for IU fans is his health. The type of injury he had (stress fracture of the foot) is tough to recover from, and the fact he had two in short order is a scary sign. But if he’s fully healthy and bulked up, he can be an All American… though he does need to boost his rebounding numbers a lot.
2) Carl Landry, Purdue
If I’m going to pick White, I have to pick Landry as well. Both guys are coming off injury redshirt seasons, but both guys were stars in the league the year before. Landry averaged nearly 19 points per game when he was last healthy, and over 7 boards. Though he might be a little smaller than some people like in a PF, he certainly gets the job done.
3) Brian Butch, Bucky
What is Butch? He was a 7’0” McD’s AA center coming out of high school. Now he’s a 6’11” forward/high-post player at Bucky. He’s a tough one to classify. He shot as many 3’s as guard Mike Flowers (68), but he also led the team in blocked shots and he was the second leading returning rebounder in the Big Ten (6.0). He’s a kid who seems to be getting better in increments and who may eventually reach the hype he had coming out of high school. He will be a nightmarish matchup for everyone in the Big Ten this year, I suspect. The worst thing about Bucky is that not only do they have Butch, but they also have Jason Chappell, who started every game for them, back as well. And neither of these guys will HAVE to play a true center if they don’t want to, as Bucky also returns true center Greg Steimsma.
The Pack
Shaun Pruitt at Illinois is another kid waiting to break out now that the last remnants of that great Illinois team are gone. He started every game for Illinois last year and averaged a respectable 5 boards and 6 points as the 5th option. Illinois also returns Warren Carter and Marcus Arnold, the later being something of a let down from the hype he had transferring in from Illinois State. If he has adjusted to Big Ten play, he might be a factor. Minnesota will rely on Dan Coleman who is a strong defender and who averaged over 7 points per game on a guard strong team last year. Michigan returns Brent Petway, a powerful and athletic player who had some off-court issues; he may get a push from a new name. Ohio State returns Matt Terwilliger, who showed some promise last year and whom a JC player may push this season. MSU as usual has a bevy of big bodies to choose from. If Gray doesn’t become the PF, they can go with Idong Ibok, Goran Sutan, Drew Naymick, or Delco Rowley, none of whom really distinguished themselves a lot last year, but certainly one of them should rise from the pack this season… probably Sutan or Naymick. Penn State will probably go small and use a bunch of guards along with Claxton and Cornley, and Milos Bogetic as their one true post guy. Brandon Hassell could see some time as well. Bernard Cote, a Kentucky transfer, played a fair amount for Northwestern last year, but he didn’t really distinguish himself. His improvement could really help the Wildcats. Iowa is going to be going with a new face this year… they return next to nothing in the front court.
#5 Center
1) Courtney Sims, Michigan
The honest truth is, only 6 or 7 teams in the Big Ten actually play with a real center. And not all of those have centers that will play a lot. Most teams will go with a combination of forwards. And, if he actually ever plays, the best center in the Big Ten will certainly be incoming freshman Greg Oden at Ohio State, but leaving all that out, Sims is the best bet here, even though I still think he might be really more of a power forward. Sims is big and strong and he has experience. Look for his numbers (11ppg and 6rpg) to improve.
2) Spencer Tollackson, Minnesota
Still young, Tollackson has shown flashes of real talent. He has very nice fundamentals for a kid his age, and now that Vincent Grier and Maurice Hargrow are gone, he should be much more of a focus in the Gopher’s plans. Like Sims, look for him to improve on his scoring (8.1 ppg) and rebounding (4.1 rpg).
3) Seth Gorney, Iowa
I’m probably going out on a limb here, but honestly, there are not a lot of centers in the league. Gorney is still very raw and very young, and probably a year or so away from making any real impact, but Iowa has a reputation for putting good centers on the floor, and if they’re going to keep that up, Gorney is next in line.
The Pack
Well, there’s not much. Michigan State will play either Drew Naymick or Goran Sutan, both of whom are as much power forwards, as they are centers (like Sims at Michigan). Sutan in particular might be a player to keep your eyes on. Vince Scott is still around at Northwestern, and he’ll probably get a fair amount of playing time. Greg Steimsma at Bucky looks to be a pretty good player, if he can keep himself on the court. Injures and academics have hampered his development, but if he can get his act together, he could be a big factor for Bucky. This brings us to Greg Oden at tOSU. He’s a new player, but I kinda feel like I need to at least mention him given he’d have been the #1 pick in the NBA draft each of the last 2 seasons. If he plays for Brutus, he will be the #1 guy, like I said, and Ohio State will be a dominant team. If you put a gun to my head and made me bat, I’m have to put my money on Oden not playing a game for Ohio State. But we shall see.
The Rankings
Best Bench
1) Bucky
2) Illinois
3) Michigan
Best Backcourt
1) Penn State
2) Illinois
3) Michigan
4) Ohio State
Best Frontcourt
1) Bucky
2) Illinois
3) Minnesota
4) Michigan
All Settles/Eschmeyer (guys who seem to have been playing for a decade)
1) Lester Abram
2) Alando Tucker
3) Vince Scott
4) David Teague
5) Ben Luber
Preseason POTY candidates
1) Alando Tucker
2) DJ White
3) Carl Landry
4) Drew Neitzel
5) Brian Randle
6) Greg Oden
7) Adam Haluska
Best Looking Cheerleaders
Always a tough call. This year I go with Illinois.
Returning numbers
Returning minutes played:
1. Penn State……………….85%
2. Bucky……………………83%
3. Illinois……………………66%
4. Michigan…………………60%
5. Northwestern…………….56%
6. Michigan State…………..44%
7. Purdue……………………44%
8. Iowa………………………41%
9. Indiana……………………40%
10. Minnesota…………………39%
11. Ohio State………………….37%
In the six or seven years I’ve been doing this I’ve never seen aggregate numbers this low. To give you some idea, last year seven teams in the Big Ten returned 70% of their minutes from the year before, and the lowest number was in the mid 40’s. This only serves, I think, to hammer home the point that is a brand new Big Ten this year… a huge wave of players is gone now, and we’re on new footing around the league this season. This makes all these numbers tough to analyze… and again, this does not take into account kids like DJ White or Carl Landry or David Teague or a handful of others, to say nothing of Greg Oden. I think you can look at this and say Bucky is going to be really good, Penn State and Illinois might be better than you expect, and OSU has plenty of playing time for their monster recruiting class.
Returning shot attempts:
1. Bucky………………….91%
2. Penn State………………82%
3. Illinois………………….61%
4. Michigan……………….58%
5. Northwestern……………47%
6. Purdue…………………..41%
7. Iowa…………………….39%
8. Indiana…………………..37%
9. Minnesota………………..35%
10. Ohio State………………..34%
11. Michigan State…………...28%
The low-number trend continues… I went back and I cannot find a record of a team ever returning less than 35% of anything ever. That insanely low MSU number, I think, is reflective of a team that’s sent a huge number of players to the NBA over the past couple of years. This should be a wild year in East Lansing. I think those top 4 schools pretty well know who’s going to be taking the shots for them this year… after that it sort of becomes a crap shoot. Only Bucky and Penn State return their #1 options this year. Sadly, Bucky returns their top 4 options.
Returning Rebounding:
1. Bucky………………..95%
2. Penn State……………84%
3. Illinois………………..66%
4. Michigan……………..59%
5. Northwestern…………59%
6. Minnesota…………….50%
7. Indiana………………..43%
8. Michigan State………..43%
9. Purdue…………………41%
10. Iowa……………………28%
11. Ohio State……………..25%
No more Terrance Dials, obviously. I tend to use this as a measure of who might be more or less solid in the front court. Obviously, it’s not perfect, but it does tell you who’s going to be playing younger or less-tested kids up front in general. This is going to be Iowa’s huge weakness this season. Notice Illinois hangs tough just below the top-2… That’s going to be important, I think.
Returning Assists:
1. Bucky…………….89%
2. Penn State………..89%
3. Northwestern……..64%
4. Michigan State……59%
5. Illinois…………….50%
6. Michigan………….50%
7. Purdue…………….46%
8. Ohio State…………41%
9. Iowa……………….41%
10. Indiana…………….33%
11. Minnesota………….20%
To me, this is the most interesting and telling of all the categories this year… It’s the one that looks least like the other ones. Notice MSU leaps from the bottom of all the other categories up to the top 5, and Illinois drops some. OSU and Northwestern move up some here as well, while IU falls. I usually use this one to gauge backcourt strength, and to me, seniors in the backcourt count double what seniors in the front court count… if I have to have kids, I want them up front not handling the ball a lot. The one thing MSU has going for them this year is Neitzel, and that is reflected here. Same with OSU. I know 41% is low, but its not awful in comparison to what others have, and it means they have options should a kid like Conley have the freshman jitters. I think Northwestern’s high score here is indicative of the type of game they play. Illinois drops because they lost Dee Brown. To me, these numbers tend to skew the low MSU numbers up, due to the experience of Neitzel, and they skew the Illinois numbers down due to the loss of Brown. And I worry less about OSU being hurt by youth. That Minnesota number is probably the lowest returning aggregate in history.
Returning total points:
1. Bucky……………….91%
2. Penn State…………..82%
3. Illinois………………60%
4. Michigan……………57%
5. Northwestern………..44%
6. Iowa…………………39%
7. Purdue……………….39%
8. Ohio State……………36%
9. Minnesota……………36%
10. Indiana……………….35%
11. Michigan State……….24%
Plain and simple… Bucky and Penn State have their offenses in place. No one else does. This will be a HUGE year to look at and evaluate the new comers and the guys coming off redshirts. And there are a lot of them to look at. From an Indiana perspective, I think this ought to give us some heart in that while our numbers are awfully low, at least we’re not the only team in the bottom of the bucket. A lot of teams have a lot of question marks.
However, I think right now this ought to give some people a little bit of a pause on the “top 3 in the B10” thing… We have quite an uphill battle to fight to get that #3 spot. Right now, I gotta think that’s reserved for either Illinois, Michigan or Michigan State.
Individual returning numbers
Here again, the numbers make it obvious how much talent left the league last year. And also the number of talented kids that didn’t play all year, like White and Landry.
Top 5 returning scorers:
1. Tucker, Wisc……………19.0
2. Claxton, PSU……………15.2
3. Taylor, Wisc…………….14.2
4. Haluska, Iowa……………13.9
5. Cornley, PSU……………11.4
I bet the PSU guys surprised some folks, they did me to some extent. However, to show how much talent left, Cornley, who is the #5 returning scorer was the 24th over all scorer last year… four fifths of the scoring leaders left.
Top 5 returning rebounders:
1. Claxton, PSU………………..7.5
2. Butch, Wisc………………….6.0
3. Sims, Mich……………………5.7
4. Tucker, Wisc………………….5.7
5. Cornley, PSU…………………5.7
The league lost a TON of rebounding strength.
Top 5 returning assists:
1. Neitzel, MSU…………. 5.56
2. Butler, OSU…………… 4.65
3. Luber, PSU……………. 4.45
4. Doyle, NU…………….. 3.79
5. Jackson, PSU………….. 2.87
The top 3 over all assist leaders last year all return.
Top 5 returning 3-point shooters (in terms of made per game):
1. McBride, Ill………………2.52
2. Harris, Mich………………2.28
3. Taylor, Wisc………………2.16
4. Smith, Ill………………….2.06
5. Lutz, PU…………………..1.89
Illinois will be a tough outside shooting team.
Top 5 returning 3-point shooters (in terms of percentage):
1. Smith, Ill…………………….482
2. Luber, PSU………………….448
3. Butler, OSU…………………414
4. Neitzel, MSU………………..404
5. McBride, Ill………………….403
Top 5 returning shooting percentages:
1. Sims, Mich……………………633
2. Tollackson, Min………………570
3. Randle, Ill……………………..519
4. Cornley, PSU………………….513
5. Doyle, NU……………………..503
Here again…. Notice not a single IU name
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