Players are listed in order of my revised projected MPG for each.
In summary, I see our "core rotation" (the guys who will play when the bench is shortened and when the games really matter) as Juwan, Romeo, Phinisee, Smith, Zach, Devonte, Fitzner, & Durham.
Juwan - Our most important player and one of the best players in the B1G. We know what we have with him, so not a lot needs to be said here. The one comment I'll make is it'll be interesting to see where he plays the bulk of his time on offense. What will the mix look like in terms of when he posts vs. ball-screen action? For us to be as good as we can be, I think he needs to spend the majority of his time getting post touches.
Romeo - A stud, but still a frosh. He'll have his ups & downs. That being said, he'll probably lead us in scoring or, at a minimum, be right with Juwan. What he brings that is most important to this team is his ability to create on his own when things get bogged down, particularly getting to the rim. Not sure what's up with his FT shooting (and don't get me started on the whole team - it's a really odd thing), but I remember him struggling with it down the stretch in the tourney w/ New Albany as well. I had visions of him actually being the primary ball-handler w/ Devonte playing more of a "2", but Devonte hasn't shown progression like I had hoped. So it looks like he'll be joined in the backcourt primarily w/ Phinisee, which should cause him to have the ball in his hands a little less. I like him best when he's attacking the rim and/or penetrating and breaking down the D. Don't trust his outside shot fully, to be honest. He's streaky. He's also a really good defender when he wants to be, which is most of the time.
Phinisee - Good Lord, what a find. Now, a lot of people who watched him in high school/AAU knew how good he'd be, but I think he's even out-performed the highest of those expectations. He just doesn't look like a frosh physically and definitely doesn't play like a frosh. He has the composure of a senior already. He will be a ROCK his entire career. He may struggle some against top-flight competition, unless he becomes really confident with being a 3 pt. threat. Not that he's a bad shooter - he's not... but I think it may be more of a question of how WILLING a shooter he is. I'll be looking to see if he gets more aggressively defensively in pressuring the ball. Good defender already.
Smith - Looks largely the same player as last year, maybe a bit more under control. Very explosive. As my dude @EvM has mentioned countless times, he jumps way too early when trying to finish, and struggles with that more than he should. It's probably not anything he's going to get much better at - I think it's just who he is. Still, will get plenty of easy scoring opportunities due to his athleticism. I'd like to continue to see growth from him defensively. He could be a really good defender. I don't see an early-entry NBA candidate anytime soon, at least not after this season, which is a good thing for us since we lose Juwan.
Zach - May end up playing fewer MPG due to his "ongoing back issues", as reported yesterday. That sucks. For us to be at our best, Zach has to be healthy and be able to play significant minutes. He just does SO MANY things that help us win that don't always show up in the stats. Anyone who really understands basketball knows this. He's also a really good shooter... only battles the willingness part. But that doesn't seem to be anything that will change with him. Maybe as he gets into the latter half of his senior season, he'll get a bit more aggressive when open. Can guard just about any position on the floor. But now I am REALLY concerned about his ongoing back issues. I'm hoping it's been something he's dealt with for a long time, and it just kind of "flared up" yesterday and there was no reason to keep playing him. I guess we'll get an idea of the severity based on if he starts and plays a good amount vs. Marquette.
Devonte - I really thought we'd see some growth in maturity and composure w/ Devonte, and I thought he'd be our starting PG for most of the season. I was wrong on that. Really disappointing to see the same crap we saw last year. Just careless mistakes. I guess it's just a part of him. Not sure if he loses focus at times and just gets sloppy or what the hell his problem is. Definitely seems more concerned with being flashy than making the smart play and taking care of the ball. That being said, I still expect him to play quite a bit and will have some great games. And he'll have some crap games. I am left with just a SLIM bit of hope that against these crap teams he's just not able to get "up" for these games. But that's probably wishful thinking. He is at his best offensively when the pace of the game is fast. He can get his own shot, which is a plus. Is a good defender when focused, and it does seem like he's a bit more consistent defensively than offensively. But we've got what we've got with Devonte.
Fitzner - This is the one where I was REALLY WRONG on, and I'm ecstatic. He looks way better than the video I watched of him at St. Mary's, and I watched a decent amount. Granted, they were clips, and I should have watched games, because he looks way better. He is composed out there and is a great shooter, so we can space the floor with him out there, giving Juwan & Smith more room to do damage in the paint if we go "big". Plays below the rim as a big, but uses his body & angles well and is a decent finisher as a result. Haven't focused too much on him defensively, but we'll get a better idea of that as we face better opponents. But from what I've seen so far, he doesn't appear to be a huge liability defensively, at the very least. I should have just trusted Archie on this one. But after watching the video, I couldn't help but think he wouldn't have any real impact. So feel free to come at me for this one, cause I was DEAD WRONG.
Durham - I really like Al (I'm still gonna call him Al). I like his composure, and he understands how to play. We haven't got to see much of him yet, but the one thing I've noticed already is how much better his 3 pt. shot looks. Not sure if it's a mechanics thing or a confidence thing (or a combo of both), but it looks better. I still don't want him shooting it unless he's wide open, but it's better. He can also play some point, so when Devonte is being bad Devonte, we'll still have 3 good ball handlers in Phinisee, Romeo, & Durham. Also a good and versatile defender.
Race - Really excited to see more of Race. I think he could sneak into our "core rotation" by the end of the season. Even though we've only seen a little of him, he just looks the part. Particularly looking forward to seeing how he defends and rebounds.
Davis - I just don't count on much from Davis. I hope I'm wrong and he gets healthier and in better game shape as the season wears on, because he can be a really good weapon in the post offensively. But I'm just not too optimistic here. I honestly see him playing 5-10 mpg until he gets hurt again.
Damezi - His head is spinning. Doesn't really know what to do out there, and really shouldn't be playing much at all, if it weren't for Hunter's injury. I know Archie is trying to get him some game experience while he can in these easy games. His 3 pt. shot is ugly, but it is effective. His jumper looks way better off the dribble, but I've only seen one of those. On defense, he's either just not a good defender or doesn't know how to play defense. He does look like he's trying, so there's that. I honestly expect him to be a transfer candidate after this season or next. But we'll see.
Moore - Actually pleasantly surprised with his progression. I think he can help some if we need it. Still very much a project, and I'm pretty surprised he stuck around for his sophomore season. But I'd still really like to see him stick with the program and see how much he can develop by the time he's a senior. There is talent to work with. I actually think he can be a really good defender and shot blocker if he sticks around. But won't play much this season barring unforeseen injuries.
Forrester - I like his energy and I think he'll be in the rotation as a junior & senior. Just not enough to go off of yet to add much more.
Jager - Honestly I think Jager could play limited minutes and help us if we need it. He's very strong and takes care of the ball. Not a typical walk-on.
Hunter - *Caveat - I'm assuming a "lost year" due to his injury. It just doesn't sound good. If he plays at some point this season, his minutes will likely be restricted anyway. Just too hard to project anything from him at this point. If he doesn't play this year, or his minutes are restricted, it'll mean "playing small" more and also more playing time for guys like Devonte, Durham, Smith, Anderson, etc.
In summary, I see our "core rotation" (the guys who will play when the bench is shortened and when the games really matter) as Juwan, Romeo, Phinisee, Smith, Zach, Devonte, Fitzner, & Durham.
Juwan - Our most important player and one of the best players in the B1G. We know what we have with him, so not a lot needs to be said here. The one comment I'll make is it'll be interesting to see where he plays the bulk of his time on offense. What will the mix look like in terms of when he posts vs. ball-screen action? For us to be as good as we can be, I think he needs to spend the majority of his time getting post touches.
Romeo - A stud, but still a frosh. He'll have his ups & downs. That being said, he'll probably lead us in scoring or, at a minimum, be right with Juwan. What he brings that is most important to this team is his ability to create on his own when things get bogged down, particularly getting to the rim. Not sure what's up with his FT shooting (and don't get me started on the whole team - it's a really odd thing), but I remember him struggling with it down the stretch in the tourney w/ New Albany as well. I had visions of him actually being the primary ball-handler w/ Devonte playing more of a "2", but Devonte hasn't shown progression like I had hoped. So it looks like he'll be joined in the backcourt primarily w/ Phinisee, which should cause him to have the ball in his hands a little less. I like him best when he's attacking the rim and/or penetrating and breaking down the D. Don't trust his outside shot fully, to be honest. He's streaky. He's also a really good defender when he wants to be, which is most of the time.
Phinisee - Good Lord, what a find. Now, a lot of people who watched him in high school/AAU knew how good he'd be, but I think he's even out-performed the highest of those expectations. He just doesn't look like a frosh physically and definitely doesn't play like a frosh. He has the composure of a senior already. He will be a ROCK his entire career. He may struggle some against top-flight competition, unless he becomes really confident with being a 3 pt. threat. Not that he's a bad shooter - he's not... but I think it may be more of a question of how WILLING a shooter he is. I'll be looking to see if he gets more aggressively defensively in pressuring the ball. Good defender already.
Smith - Looks largely the same player as last year, maybe a bit more under control. Very explosive. As my dude @EvM has mentioned countless times, he jumps way too early when trying to finish, and struggles with that more than he should. It's probably not anything he's going to get much better at - I think it's just who he is. Still, will get plenty of easy scoring opportunities due to his athleticism. I'd like to continue to see growth from him defensively. He could be a really good defender. I don't see an early-entry NBA candidate anytime soon, at least not after this season, which is a good thing for us since we lose Juwan.
Zach - May end up playing fewer MPG due to his "ongoing back issues", as reported yesterday. That sucks. For us to be at our best, Zach has to be healthy and be able to play significant minutes. He just does SO MANY things that help us win that don't always show up in the stats. Anyone who really understands basketball knows this. He's also a really good shooter... only battles the willingness part. But that doesn't seem to be anything that will change with him. Maybe as he gets into the latter half of his senior season, he'll get a bit more aggressive when open. Can guard just about any position on the floor. But now I am REALLY concerned about his ongoing back issues. I'm hoping it's been something he's dealt with for a long time, and it just kind of "flared up" yesterday and there was no reason to keep playing him. I guess we'll get an idea of the severity based on if he starts and plays a good amount vs. Marquette.
Devonte - I really thought we'd see some growth in maturity and composure w/ Devonte, and I thought he'd be our starting PG for most of the season. I was wrong on that. Really disappointing to see the same crap we saw last year. Just careless mistakes. I guess it's just a part of him. Not sure if he loses focus at times and just gets sloppy or what the hell his problem is. Definitely seems more concerned with being flashy than making the smart play and taking care of the ball. That being said, I still expect him to play quite a bit and will have some great games. And he'll have some crap games. I am left with just a SLIM bit of hope that against these crap teams he's just not able to get "up" for these games. But that's probably wishful thinking. He is at his best offensively when the pace of the game is fast. He can get his own shot, which is a plus. Is a good defender when focused, and it does seem like he's a bit more consistent defensively than offensively. But we've got what we've got with Devonte.
Fitzner - This is the one where I was REALLY WRONG on, and I'm ecstatic. He looks way better than the video I watched of him at St. Mary's, and I watched a decent amount. Granted, they were clips, and I should have watched games, because he looks way better. He is composed out there and is a great shooter, so we can space the floor with him out there, giving Juwan & Smith more room to do damage in the paint if we go "big". Plays below the rim as a big, but uses his body & angles well and is a decent finisher as a result. Haven't focused too much on him defensively, but we'll get a better idea of that as we face better opponents. But from what I've seen so far, he doesn't appear to be a huge liability defensively, at the very least. I should have just trusted Archie on this one. But after watching the video, I couldn't help but think he wouldn't have any real impact. So feel free to come at me for this one, cause I was DEAD WRONG.
Durham - I really like Al (I'm still gonna call him Al). I like his composure, and he understands how to play. We haven't got to see much of him yet, but the one thing I've noticed already is how much better his 3 pt. shot looks. Not sure if it's a mechanics thing or a confidence thing (or a combo of both), but it looks better. I still don't want him shooting it unless he's wide open, but it's better. He can also play some point, so when Devonte is being bad Devonte, we'll still have 3 good ball handlers in Phinisee, Romeo, & Durham. Also a good and versatile defender.
Race - Really excited to see more of Race. I think he could sneak into our "core rotation" by the end of the season. Even though we've only seen a little of him, he just looks the part. Particularly looking forward to seeing how he defends and rebounds.
Davis - I just don't count on much from Davis. I hope I'm wrong and he gets healthier and in better game shape as the season wears on, because he can be a really good weapon in the post offensively. But I'm just not too optimistic here. I honestly see him playing 5-10 mpg until he gets hurt again.
Damezi - His head is spinning. Doesn't really know what to do out there, and really shouldn't be playing much at all, if it weren't for Hunter's injury. I know Archie is trying to get him some game experience while he can in these easy games. His 3 pt. shot is ugly, but it is effective. His jumper looks way better off the dribble, but I've only seen one of those. On defense, he's either just not a good defender or doesn't know how to play defense. He does look like he's trying, so there's that. I honestly expect him to be a transfer candidate after this season or next. But we'll see.
Moore - Actually pleasantly surprised with his progression. I think he can help some if we need it. Still very much a project, and I'm pretty surprised he stuck around for his sophomore season. But I'd still really like to see him stick with the program and see how much he can develop by the time he's a senior. There is talent to work with. I actually think he can be a really good defender and shot blocker if he sticks around. But won't play much this season barring unforeseen injuries.
Forrester - I like his energy and I think he'll be in the rotation as a junior & senior. Just not enough to go off of yet to add much more.
Jager - Honestly I think Jager could play limited minutes and help us if we need it. He's very strong and takes care of the ball. Not a typical walk-on.
Hunter - *Caveat - I'm assuming a "lost year" due to his injury. It just doesn't sound good. If he plays at some point this season, his minutes will likely be restricted anyway. Just too hard to project anything from him at this point. If he doesn't play this year, or his minutes are restricted, it'll mean "playing small" more and also more playing time for guys like Devonte, Durham, Smith, Anderson, etc.
