Goat's POLS Thread for Mature Adults

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

This experiment worked well the past two election cycles, so I'm doing it again. This thread is specifically for discussing what's going on today objectively. It's not for campaigning, it's not for cheerleading, it's not for nonsense, and it's certainly not for insults. If you want to post in this thread, bring your A Game. If you want to insult people, there are other threads for that. If you want to try to argue about policy, we have threads for that. If you want to argue over which candidate is more anti-American, we have other threads for that. If you want to post some anecdotal nonsense from some random guy on Twitter explaining why Trump is going to win Iowa by 64 points, we even have a thread for that.

This thread is only for discussion of what's actually happening from an analytical standpoint.

Moderating in this thread will be completely arbitrary. If I think your post is bad, I might delete it. If you cause continuing trouble in this thread, I might ban you from it. Don't worry you can still post in all those other threads.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

To start off with my first thought about how to get started tonight, here's what to look for right at 7 PM:

Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina.

All three states should start getting totals reported quickly. Georgia will be the key. If it gets called quickly, it could tell you which way the night is going. But don't count out SC and Indiana. Both are on the border between Safe and Lean Trump status, and whether or not they are called early could tell us something, as well.

Similarly, North Carolina and Ohio close at 7:30, and should be good early indicators of where we are headed.

 

[Neves]

To start off with my first thought about how to get started tonight, here's what to look for right at 7 PM:

Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina.

All three states should start getting totals reported quickly. Georgia will be the key. If it gets called quickly, it could tell you which way the night is going. But don't count out SC and Indiana. Both are on the border between Safe and Lean Trump status, and whether or not they are called early could tell us something, as well.

Similarly, North Carolina and Ohio close at 7:30, and should be good early indicators of where we are headed.

538 has the forecast for Indiana at around +11 for Trump. I'll be interested to see if Biden is able to get it into single digits? Also IN-5 has traditionally been a republican seat, so could be telling if it goes easily Democratic.

 

[Morrison]

I think NC results are going to be delayed by 45 minutes to an hour, due to some precincts opening late this morning. They’re keeping the polls open a bit later to compensate.

 

[kurt cloverdales]

To start off with my first thought about how to get started tonight, here's what to look for right at 7 PM:

Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina.

All three states should start getting totals reported quickly. Georgia will be the key. If it gets called quickly, it could tell you which way the night is going. But don't count out SC and Indiana. Both are on the border between Safe and Lean Trump status, and whether or not they are called early could tell us something, as well.

Similarly, North Carolina and Ohio close at 7:30, and should be good early indicators of where we are headed.

a serious question goat do you believe Biden has a chance in Indiana? I haven't even seen any of the pundits even mention the possibility of him winning our state

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I think NC results are going to be delayed by 45 minutes to an hour, due to some precincts opening late this morning. They’re keeping the polls open a bit later to compensate.

Good call. Forgot about that.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

a serious question goat do you believe Biden has a chance in Indiana? I haven't even seen any of the pundits even mention the possibility of him winning our state

I think Biden winning Indiana would be a huge upset. But if it is a blue tsunami type year, he might close the gap enough that the various decision desks list us as "too early to call" for a while.

 

[Inigo Montoya]

Does anyone know the deadline for receipt of mail in ballots in GA & NC?

Just 52% of the Atlanta district's ballots, and 69% of ballots in wide swaths of North Carolina moved on-time on Sunday and Monday, the USPS reported.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Look at the margins in IN and KY. I remember watching Karl Rove days after the 2004 election when those phony exit polls had W losing Ohio. He said that right when I saw we had increased our margins in IN and KY I knew we were going to win.

 

[twenty02]

Indiana 5th will be a good one to watch to get an idea of suburban vote trends.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Does anyone know the deadline for receipt of mail in ballots in GA & NC?

Just 52% of the Atlanta district's ballots, and 69% of ballots in wide swaths of North Carolina moved on-time on Sunday and Monday, the USPS reported.

In Georgia, received by today. In North Carolina, postmarked by today. Some of the many, many lawsuits might have changed some of that a bit, though. I'm not entirely up to date on all the rulings.

 

[twenty02]

Look at the margins in IN and KY. I remember watching Karl Rove days after the 2004 election when those phony exit polls had W losing Ohio. He said that right when I saw we had increased our margins in IN and KY I knew we were going to win.

Exit polls are trash and hopefully won't even be used tonight. No idea how they even would be under the voting circumstances.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Look at the margins in IN and KY. I remember watching Karl Rove days after the 2004 election when those phony exit polls had W losing Ohio. He said that right when I saw we had increased our margins in IN and KY I knew we were going to win.

In 2016, Trump won Kentucky by 30 points and Indiana by 19. There is almost no chance he comes close to either of those margins this year.

 

[Fro]

Look at the margins in IN and KY. I remember watching Karl Rove days after the 2004 election when those phony exit polls had W losing Ohio. He said that right when I saw we had increased our margins in IN and KY I knew we were going to win.

Agreed, but we'll need to look at rural/suburban/urban districts that are completed to get a good idea.

I expect Biden to do better than Hillary in the rural districts but the $64,000 question in this election is whether Trump can get a bigger rural margin because of all the Trump voters coming out of the woodwork.

If he is this might be a long week.

And of course, the Southeast/Southwest can have different voting patterns than what we see in Indiana/Kentucky.

 

[Inigo Montoya]

Indiana 5th will be a good one to watch to get an idea of suburban vote trends.

This was a particularly ugly contest. Lots of outside spending based on who paid for the ads I saw...for weeks. Both ways.

 

[Morrison]

Exit polls are trash and hopefully won't even be used tonight. No idea how they even would be under the voting circumstances.

CNN has their first exit poll in 44 minutes.😂
You’ll be drinking shortly.

 

[IUCrazy2]

538 has the forecast for Indiana at around +11 for Trump. I'll be interested to see if Biden is able to get it into single digits? Also IN-5 has traditionally been a republican seat, so could be telling if it goes easily Democratic.

I live in the fifth. It may or may not be a bell weather, but Victoria Spartz is kind of a weak candidate. A Democrat pickup there (which I don't expect) is probably more likely about Spartz than anything else. Her family has had some dealings in the area that were not popular and they probably weigh her down more than the average GOP candidate for the area.

 

[twenty02]

I live in the fifth. It may or may not be a bell weather, but Victoria Spartz is kind of a weak candidate. A Democrat pickup there (which I don't expect) is probably more likely about Spartz than anything else. Her family has had some dealings in the area that were not popular and they probably weigh her down more than the average GOP candidate for the area.

I was referring more to the POTUS vote count from the 5th, rather than just the actual House race.

 

[Cortez88]

In 2016, Trump won Kentucky by 30 points and Indiana by 19. There is almost no chance he comes close to either of those margins this year.

This is what I want to see early this evening. If he has significant drop offs in IN and KY, that could be telling.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I live in the fifth. It may or may not be a bell weather, but Victoria Spartz is kind of a weak candidate. A Democrat pickup there (which I don't expect) is probably more likely about Spartz than anything else. Her family has had some dealings in the area that were not popular and they probably weigh her down more than the average GOP candidate for the area.

Why is she a weak candidate, she beat some reasonably big names to get the nomination.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I was referring more to the POTUS vote count from the 5th, rather than just the actual House race.

Unfortunately, Indiana reports votes by county, but not by district. I suppose we could take Hamilton as representative of the suburban vote? I'm not super familiar with the Indy suburbs.

 

[larsIU]

Unfortunately, Indiana reports votes by county, but not by district. I suppose we could take Hamilton as representative of the suburban vote? I'm not super familiar with the Indy suburbs.

In 2016 Trump beat Clinton in Hamilton County 57-37 with Gary Johnson taking nearly 6% of the vote. Will be interesting to see if that gets closer to 50/50 (which having lived in Hamilton County for way too long seems insane from the Hamilton county of the 1980's). With no real viable 3rd party candidate this year I could see it being 50/50 or 60/40 Trump.

 

[Cortez88]

What’s everyone’s estimate of total turnout? Over 150M? Can we hit 160M?

 

[twenty02]

Unfortunately, Indiana reports votes by county, but not by district. I suppose we could take Hamilton as representative of the suburban vote? I'm not super familiar with the Indy suburbs.

Yeah I would just look at Hamilton then.

 

[UncleMark]

Who are you people going to be watching? I'll stick with MSNBC. Yes, I know they're Dem shills, but I like their on air talent. I might bounce over to Fox once in a while to check out the opposition, but doubt I can stomach much.

 

[twenty02]

In 2016 Trump beat Clinton in Hamilton County 57-37 with Gary Johnson taking nearly 6% of the vote. Will be interesting to see if that gets closer to 50/50 (which having lived in Hamilton County for way too long seems insane from the Hamilton county of the 1980's). With no real viable 3rd party candidate this year I could see it being 50/50 or 60/40 Trump.

I was surprised the volume of Biden signs when doing some neighborhood tours in Carmel a few weeks ago.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

What’s everyone’s estimate of total turnout? Over 150M? Can we hit 160M?

I'm going to predict 156.4 million, for no good reason.

(Actually, that's what you get if you multiple current eligible voters by the 1908 turnout rate.)

 

[Hank Reardon]

CNN has their first exit poll in 44 minutes.😂
You’ll be drinking shortly.

Wouldn't exit polls disproportionally favor Trump under these circumstances? I'm with twenty. Exit polling this year would be worse than useless.

 

[IUCrazy2]

Why is she a weak candidate, she beat some reasonably big names to get the nomination.

She has some potential business dealings that have come out that are enh...she turned off quite a few Nobleville voters after the school shooting a few years back. There are just some locally related issues she has outside of the national scope that are making her life more difficult then some more boilerplate generic R's.

She could end up getting swept away in some blue wave, but I would have to see more data to completely agree that it was part of a national pattern as opposed to just some discontent with her among normal Republican leaning voters.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Who are you people going to be watching? I'll stick with MSNBC. Yes, I know they're Dem shills, but I like their on air talent. I might bounce over to Fox once in a while to check out the opposition, but doubt I can stomach much.

Good question. I guess fox or msnbc. It’s weird cnn and a few others got dropped by fubo

 

[IUCrazy2]

I was referring more to the POTUS vote count from the 5th, rather than just the actual House race.

Yes, if that all went blue then that would be a different story.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Wouldn't exit polls disproportionally favor Trump under these circumstances? I'm with twenty. Exit polling this year would be worse than useless.

This year, the exits include polling taking at early voting locations and phone surveys of people who claimed to have already voted. Not that it will be any less useless.

Exit polls are only useful for doing post-mortems. They don't mean much the night of.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I'm going to predict 156.4 million, for no good reason.

(Actually, that's what you get if you multiple current eligible voters by the 1908 turnout rate.)

The lines here are the longest I’ve ever seen by a wide margin

 

[larsIU]

She has some potential business dealings that have come out that are enh...she turned off quite a few Nobleville voters after the school shooting a few years back. There are just some locally related issues she has outside of the national scope that are making her life more difficult then some more boilerplate generic R's.

She could end up getting swept away in some blue wave, but I would have to see more data to completely agree that it was part of a national pattern as opposed to just some discontent with her among normal Republican leaning voters.

Yeah, i would have to believe with the education levels in Hamilton County there will be Republicans who don't vote for Trump but do vote for Spartz. Can we discuss the heavy Russian accent? We're in the trust tree, no? It can't help her right?

 

[Cortez88]

Wouldn't exit polls disproportionally favor Trump under these circumstances? I'm with twenty. Exit polling this year would be worse than useless.

Exit polls where 100M early voted are not worth reading IMO.

 

[Morrison]

Who are you people going to be watching? I'll stick with MSNBC. Yes, I know they're Dem shills, but I like their on air talent. I might bounce over to Fox once in a while to check out the opposition, but doubt I can stomach much.

I’ll watch CNN mostly, and flip to MSNBC. I like Axelrod and Kornake’s analysis. I much prefer the MSNBC overall talent, but I like to watch CNN on presidential election night because that’s what the world outside our borders watch.

 

[Cortez88]

I’ll watch CNN mostly, and flip to MSNBC. I like Axelrod and Kornake’s analysis. I much prefer the MSNBC overall talent, but I like to watch CNN on presidential election night because that’s what the world outside our borders watch.

Karnake (sp?) is very good.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I’ll watch CNN mostly, and flip to MSNBC. I like Axelrod and Kornake’s analysis. I much prefer the MSNBC overall talent, but I like to watch CNN on presidential election night because that’s what the world outside our borders watch.

Ugh. I cannot handle CNN's election coverage. It's an election, not a damn video game.

I'll stick with MSNBC and Fox.

 

[bawlmer]

expect Biden to do better than Hillary in the rural districts but the $64,000 question in this election is whether Trump can get a bigger rural margin because of all the Trump voters coming out of the woodwork.

If he is this might be a long week.

That does seem to be Trump's primary path to victory, new voters coming out of the woodwork for him. I know there have been lots of new GOP registrations in some states. It could impact polls of likely voters based on past voting behavior. We'll see if that carries over to enough added votes.

 

[HillzHoozier]

Who are you people going to be watching? I'll stick with MSNBC. Yes, I know they're Dem shills, but I like their on air talent. I might bounce over to Fox once in a while to check out the opposition, but doubt I can stomach much.

I'm a Kornacke fan.