Coronavirus

[sglowrider]

IANAE*, but it seems to me, based on the apparent ability of this disease to spread quickly before any symptoms manifest, containment exercises may be futile, anyway.

Considering I care for an elderly parent with additional risk factors, we've already discussed a plan for the virus, and it's less about how to not catch it (since she can lock herself away all she wants, and still get it from me), and more about being vigilant about her own health and not being afraid to call the doctor the very second she feels she might be experiencing any sort of respiratory distress.

*I am not an epidemiologist.

Its about mapping and the collective desire/ability to help control the spread. The test is in the pudding. We have barely 100 cases after two months in a very congested living environment -- and zero fatality. We have the triple crown in terms of epidemics -- open borders, close living spaces and lots of elderly folks

This is why the CDC isn't doing anyone any favours. They need to stop blabbering from an office/lab perspective and come out into the field.

I think we are seeing the tail-end of our journey now.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Its about mapping and the collective desire/ability to help control the spread. The test is in the pudding. We have barely 100 cases after two months in a very congested living environment -- and zero fatality. We have the triple crown in terms of epidemics -- open borders, close living spaces and lots of elderly folks

This is why the CDC isn't doing anyone any favours. They need to stop blabbering from an office/lab perspective and come out into the field.

I think we are seeing the tail-end of our journey now.

Every time an asymptomatic case pops up with no known source (i.e., the dreaded "community spread"), the odds that we can contain this get longer.

I'm not saying we shouldn't try, of course. But I hear a lot of experts saying most of our energy should be put towards planning for the pandemic and organizing our response to mitigate the negative consequences, rather than focusing on trying to prevent the spread.

 

[sglowrider]

Every time an asymptomatic case pops up with no known source (i.e., the dreaded "community spread"), the odds that we can contain this get longer.

I'm not saying we shouldn't try, of course. But I hear a lot of experts saying most of our energy should be put towards planning for the pandemic and organizing our response to mitigate the negative consequences, rather than focusing on trying to prevent the spread.

Prevention is always better and cheaper than the cure.

It's about the political will to start with -- a balance between economics/financials and the healthcare of the citizens. The problem is also cultural when it comes to healthcare, Americans are always looking for silver bullet solutions -- quick and easy ones and thus the booming pharmaceutical industry.

Containment is multi-pronged and it requires hard, on the ground, work. The key will be trace contacts. That's a heavy resource activity. That's why they had used police detectives along with medical staff to start tracing the contacts and building maps. Then you isolate them especially the 1st level contacts who will be high risks. Their 2nd level ones need to start wearing PPE to stop potential spreading.

Companies need to start thinking of BCPs if not implementing them as soon as there are suspected cases.

The longer you wait, the more draconian the solution needs to be.

The alternative is to let the virus work its way out -- fatalistic approach.

 

[Rockport Zebra]

This is where you are thinking in terms of checkers versus chess. You are looking at it in terms of line items, linear and statistics.

Every country outside China started off with one single source. It balloons up after a certain number into webs and then webs onto more complex webs. The only solution right now barring any vaccine is containment.
If everyone takes such a self-interest, blase view on it like you, then any containment exercises will be futile.

I am not sure how many countries could or would do what China has done?

 

[sglowrider]

I am not sure how many countries could or would do what China has done?

Do what?

 

[Rockport Zebra]

Do what?

The segregation of an entire region was very astute and impressive. Here it would take the National Guard. "come on man".

 

[sglowrider]

The segregation of an entire region was very astute and impressive. Here it would take the National Guard. "come on man".

Like I said earlier, the longer you wait, the more draconian solutions you need. The local government tried covering it up which caused the delay. The longer the delay, the costlier it gets. Its not like the US is the first country hit with this. You guys are one of the last major countries getting it.

We didnt have to implement such Chinese measures here. The decision was made early on as to what needed to be done -- then is a pandemic playbook kicked in, lessons from SARS.

It was a combination of educating the public, communications, political will etc as mentioned above. The best form of containment is to have the general population buy into it -- a sense of community responsibility and spirit -- and not just something that shows up when the flag is being raised or the national anthem.

 

[Rockport Zebra]

Like I said earlier, the longer you wait, the more draconian solutions you need. The local government tried covering it up which caused the delay. The longer the delay, the costlier it gets. Its not like the US is the first country hit with this. You guys are one of the last major countries getting it.

We didnt have to implement such Chinese measures here. The decision was made early on as to what needed to be done -- then is a pandemic playbook kicked in, lessons from SARS.

It was a combination of educating the public, communications, political will etc as mentioned above. The best form of containment is to have the general population buy into it -- a sense of community responsibility and spirit -- and not just something that shows up when the flag is being raised or the national anthem.

Unfortunately the general population has a lot of under educated people.

 

[sglowrider]

Unfortunately the general population has a lot of under educated people.

Then you can see this as some higher power's way of culling -- old, chronics and the under-educated.

 

[Rockport Zebra]

Then you can see this as some higher power's way of culling -- old, chronics and the under-educated.

You sir are out of line again. What the hell does physics have to do with this issue.

 

[sglowrider]

You sir are out of line again. What the hell does physics have to do with this issue.

 

[sglowrider]

Italy reports 50 percent increase in coronavirus cases in just one day

Italian authorities said Sunday that the country has confirmed 1,694 cases of a potentially deadly coronavirus, representing a 50 per cent increase in the last 24 hours alone.

Officials added that five more people have died from the disease, bringing the total to 34 in the country, according to The Associated Press. Health officials reportedly noted that a marked increase in coronavirus cases was expected because it can take up to two weeks for containment measures to take effect and because of Italy's sizable elderly population. Giovanni Rezza, director of the infective illness department at the National Health Institute, said it would take up to 10 more days for the outbreak to become less severe.

 

[Bill4411]

Ten years ago Obama faced a lot of criticism from conservative media for how he was handling the Swine flu epidemic. President's gets blamed for practically everything that goes wrong; it just goes with the territory. I am already tired of hearing from conservatives and Trump that he is being unfairly criticized about the corona virus; that's it's just a hoax to try to make him look bad. No, I'd say he's doing a terrific job of that on his own.

https://newrepublic.com/article/71404/cant-get-flu-shot-dont-blame-obama

Conservatives have been quick to blame the administration for the slow delivery of H1N1 vaccine. Not long after Obama declared the swine flu pandemic a national emergency last month--a measure that cleared the way for hospitals to make special preparations for infected patients--Missouri Representative Roy Blunt pounced on the administration’s “onerous regulatory and legal environment” as a cause for the vaccine delays. In the Weekly Standard last week, Bill Kristol held up the swine flu response as an example of the coming “big government health care” boondoggle. “Surely this spectacle, happening in real time before us, will give even more Democrats pause. Do they really want to be known as the Swine Flu Democrats?” Earlier this month, Rush Limbaugh declared that the problem was on par with the Bush administration’s disastrous federal response to Hurricane Katrina.

 

[iuwclurker]

Ten years ago Obama faced a lot of criticism from conservative media for how he was handling the Swine flu epidemic. President's gets blamed for practically everything that goes wrong; it just goes with the territory. I am already tired of hearing from conservatives and Trump that he is being unfairly criticized about the corona virus; that's it's just a hoax to try to make him look bad. No, I'd say he's doing a terrific job of that on his own.

https://newrepublic.com/article/71404/cant-get-flu-shot-dont-blame-obama

Conservatives have been quick to blame the administration for the slow delivery of H1N1 vaccine. Not long after Obama declared the swine flu pandemic a national emergency last month--a measure that cleared the way for hospitals to make special preparations for infected patients--Missouri Representative Roy Blunt pounced on the administration’s “onerous regulatory and legal environment” as a cause for the vaccine delays. In the Weekly Standard last week, Bill Kristol held up the swine flu response as an example of the coming “big government health care” boondoggle. “Surely this spectacle, happening in real time before us, will give even more Democrats pause. Do they really want to be known as the Swine Flu Democrats?” Earlier this month, Rush Limbaugh declared that the problem was on par with the Bush administration’s disastrous federal response to Hurricane Katrina.

Just be thankful you’re immune to the real pandemic — trumpitis.

 

[iuwclurker]

Its about mapping and the collective desire/ability to help control the spread. The test is in the pudding. We have barely 100 cases after two months in a very congested living environment -- and zero fatality. We have the triple crown in terms of epidemics -- open borders, close living spaces and lots of elderly folks

This is why the CDC isn't doing anyone any favours. They need to stop blabbering from an office/lab perspective and come out into the field.

I think we are seeing the tail-end of our journey now.

Tail-end for now. The negligent rest of the world could keep you vulnerable to new infection.

 

[sglowrider]

Tail-end for now. The negligent rest of the world could keep you vulnerable to new infection.

A map of the linkages of the infected patients:

https://infographics.channelnewsasi...??cid=h3_referral_inarticlelinks_24082018_cna

 

[zeke4ahs]

Again the question how we are so unprepared? I saw that S Korea has tested more than 5,000 patients. Yet we only have hundreds of testing kits . Let alone the screw ups with the cruise ship, patients tested and released that had it, ( Texas I believe). We seem woefully unprepared.

 

[Rockport Zebra]

I see you picked up on the fact that I am a heathen. So lay off that flag and religion shit with me.

 

[Zizkov]

This is a little worrisome:

 

[mcmurtry66]

Italy reports 50 percent increase in coronavirus cases in just one day

Italian authorities said Sunday that the country has confirmed 1,694 cases of a potentially deadly coronavirus, representing a 50 per cent increase in the last 24 hours alone.

Officials added that five more people have died from the disease, bringing the total to 34 in the country, according to The Associated Press. Health officials reportedly noted that a marked increase in coronavirus cases was expected because it can take up to two weeks for containment measures to take effect and because of Italy's sizable elderly population. Giovanni Rezza, director of the infective illness department at the National Health Institute, said it would take up to 10 more days for the outbreak to become less severe.

I just don't see any practical way to contain it in a country as large as ours. We just don't have any way to police it successfully like a place like Singapore does for instance: heavy-handed gov, stiff penalties, ample resources, small pop, etc. Here you have a virus that's idiopathic, folks can spread it while being asymptomatic, and we have a sizable number of people (millions) who will allow (right or wrong) economics to dictate their decisions: 1) sick but sure as hell not going to miss work or a paycheck and 2) not going to drop a bunch of cash at the ER - what is it 3gs to get tested, a sizable deductible payment to invoke insurance blah blah blah.

 

[Hank Reardon]

Help me with something here...

Considering that for most people who don't have underlying conditions, the effects of coronavirus are more or less like any other respiratory illness...such as, say...influenza. And since run of the mill influenza for this year has affected between 30-45 million people and killed 20,000-45, 0000 people....why am I extra frightened of coronavirus?

Maybe there's a reason, but what am I missing?

 

[mcmurtry66]

Help me with something here...

Considering that for most people who don't have underlying conditions, the effects of coronavirus are more or less like any other respiratory illness...such as, say...influenza. And since run of the mill influenza for this year has affected between 30-45 million people and killed 20,000-45, 0000 people....why am I extra frightened of coronavirus?

Maybe there's a reason, but what am I missing?

Higher mortality rate.

 

[Hank Reardon]

Higher mortality rate.

Is there really? Among what populations? I don't think there's nearly enough controlled data to say that this virus is any more deadly than this year's or last year's influenza strain. I don't think stats from Wuhan or Iran would be the same as what you'd see in other parts of the world.

 

[SqueakyClean]

Is there really? Among what populations? I don't think there's nearly enough controlled data to say that this virus is any more deadly than this year's or last year's influenza strain. I don't think stats from Wuhan or Iran would be the same as what you'd see in other parts of the world.

Both the Flu and Coronavirus have higher mortality rates amongst the elderly and those with existing preconditions of cardiovascular health. Overall though, the Coronavirus has about a 2% mortality rate. The Flue season last year did kill ~18,000, but that is from 32 million cases.
If the Coronavirus were to become enough of an epidemic where 32 million people contract it, that sadly yields 640,000 deaths.

We now have 6 confirmed deaths in this country from 90 cases.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Is there really? Among what populations? I don't think there's nearly enough controlled data to say that this virus is any more deadly than this year's or last year's influenza strain. I don't think stats from Wuhan or Iran would be the same as what you'd see in other parts of the world.

Right. Lots of variables go into that claim for sure. From what I skimmed it's mortality rate, the fact that it's idiopathic, asymptomatic, and highly contagious. Whether it's being blown out of proportion I don't know.

 

[Hank Reardon]

Both the Flu and Coronavirus have higher mortality rates amongst the elderly and those with existing preconditions of cardiovascular health. Overall though, the Coronavirus has about a 2% mortality rate. The Flue season last year did kill ~18,000, but that is from 32 million cases.
If the Coronavirus were to become enough of an epidemic where 32 million people contract it, that sadly yields 640,000 deaths.

We now have 6 confirmed deaths in this country from 90 cases.

But all six are either those with people with underlying health issues, or elderly (80-90 year old nursing home residents). And those are 90 tested cases. Its seems awfully likely there are many more unconfirmed cases simply because people could easily have it and not think anything of it. I'm not suggesting that there's NO cause for alarm. I'm just suggesting that maybe, just maybe this is less The Andromeda Strain and maybe more just a different flu. We'll see.

 

[meridian]

The death toll in the Seattle area is now 6. So much so that, my wife did not even go to the church yesterday, and we stopped going to the health club. I will do/create some yard work instead.

Are we the only state that has experienced coronavirus-related death?

 

[meridian]

The death toll in the Seattle area is now 6. So much so that, my wife did not even go to the church yesterday, and we stopped going to the health club. I will do/create some yard work instead.

Are we the only state that has experience coronavirus-related death?

And 9 schools are closed! This looks serious!

 

[Zizkov]

The death toll in the Seattle area is now 6. So much so that, my wife did not even go to the church yesterday, and we stopped going to the health club. I will do/create some yard work instead.

Are we the only state that has experience coronavirus-related death?

we had our first three cases announced yesterday and it was a strange metro ride to work today.

Usually there is a lot of muted (the Czechs don't like to draw attention to themselves) chatter, but today it was eerily quite. I watch TV shows on my tablet to and from work, but today I paused it because I noticed how quite it was. It's almost as if people were waiting for someone to cough.

Not very crowded either. It seems like everyone is waiting for the next shoe to drop. I almost miss all the Czech mumbled pessimism, the silence is deafening.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

The death toll in the Seattle area is now 6. So much so that, my wife did not even go to the church yesterday, and we stopped going to the health club. I will do/create some yard work instead.

Are we the only state that has experience coronavirus-related death?

yes. And you are old so stay safe.

 

[meridian]

we had our first three cases announced yesterday and it was a strange metro ride to work today.

Usually there is a lot of muted (the Czechs don't like to draw attention to themselves) chatter, but today it was eerily quite. I watch TV shows on my tablet to and from work, but today I paused it because I noticed how quite it was. It's almost as if people were waiting for someone to cough.

Not very crowded either. It seems like everyone is waiting for the next shoe to drop. I almost miss all the Czech mumbled pessimism, the silence is deafening.

Where is we?

 

[Zizkov]

Where is we?

Two in Prague and One in Usti Nad Labem (not far from Prague). The one in Usti came back from Italy and went straight into voluntary isolation at home, so he likely hasn't passed it on since he got home. One in Prague is an American girl that is studying in Milan and came to Prague on holiday. she felt ill and went straight to the hospital, but was out and about for a while before.

The third caught it in Italy at a conference and taught a couple classes in Prague before getting sick. Plenty of opportunity to pass it around.

So far no new cases today, but I expect a spike in a the next few days.

 

[Zizkov]

Two in Prague and One in Usti Nad Labem (not far from Prague). The one in Usti came back from Italy and went straight into voluntary isolation at home, so he likely hasn't passed it on since he got home. One in Prague is an American girl that is studying in Milan and came to Prague on holiday. she felt ill and went straight to the hospital, but was out and about for a while before.

The third caught it in Italy at a conference and taught a couple classes in Prague before getting sick. Plenty of opportunity to pass it around.

So far no new cases today, but I expect a spike in a the next few days.

A lot of Czechs go skiing in Northern Italy this time of year and I expect more of them to get sick.

I saw this earlier today. I assume many will be returning home sometime:

 

[Zizkov]

Italy reports 50 percent increase in coronavirus cases in just one day

Italian authorities said Sunday that the country has confirmed 1,694 cases of a potentially deadly coronavirus, representing a 50 per cent increase in the last 24 hours alone.

Officials added that five more people have died from the disease, bringing the total to 34 in the country, according to The Associated Press. Health officials reportedly noted that a marked increase in coronavirus cases was expected because it can take up to two weeks for containment measures to take effect and because of Italy's sizable elderly population. Giovanni Rezza, director of the infective illness department at the National Health Institute, said it would take up to 10 more days for the outbreak to become less severe.

The WHO just released their latest update for Europe. Tons of new cases all over include +400 more in Italy. Huge jumps in Germany, France and Spain. Almost doubled in Austria and Switzerland. New cases in Ireland.

It's going pretty fast right now, more new cases outside of China than inside.

WHO Update:

http://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ead3c6475654481ca51c248d52ab9c61

 

[sglowrider]

I just don't see any practical way to contain it in a country as large as ours. We just don't have any way to police it successfully like a place like Singapore does for instance: heavy-handed gov, stiff penalties, ample resources, small pop, etc. Here you have a virus that's idiopathic, folks can spread it while being asymptomatic, and we have a sizable number of people (millions) who will allow (right or wrong) economics to dictate their decisions: 1) sick but sure as hell not going to miss work or a paycheck and 2) not going to drop a bunch of cash at the ER - what is it 3gs to get tested, a sizable deductible payment to invoke insurance blah blah blah.

You take out the word 'covid-19' and insert 'mass shooting' and there is a familiar feel to it.

So either there lacks a political will (if they can send a man to the moon..) or one has to re-look at the current healthcare infrastructure and system and to look at the culture/societal value system for the inertia.

Most primary care here is private, tertiary care then shifts off to Govt run. What the govt here did was to heavily subsidise all visits of patients, whether they are in for a cold, flu or otherwise. Its like $7 per visit.

Its a small city/state but its highly concentrated population. Fantastic environment for festering viruses. The US has by far more resources, its just that they are being smart about utilising the limited resources like employing the police in tracing contacts. Or shifting budgets -- with no walls to build I guess we have a lesser problem.

 

[HillzHoozier]

 

[sglowrider]

Wow. The common flu kills like 0.5% of the population whilst the Coronavirus is killing like 0.2% globally. And its a little higher in the US-based on the current small sample size so theoretically, 640,000 deaths if its the equivalent.

So 640,000 > 18,000

Thats your point?

 

[mcmurtry66]

You take out the word 'covid-19' and insert 'mass shooting' and there is a familiar feel to it.

So either there lacks a political will (if they can send a man to the moon..) or one has to re-look at the current healthcare infrastructure and system and to look at the culture/societal value system for the inertia.

Most primary care here is private, tertiary care then shifts off to Govt run. What the govt here did was to heavily subsidise all visits of patients, whether they are in for a cold, flu or otherwise. Its like $7 per visit.

Its a small city/state but its highly concentrated population. The US has by far more resources, its just that they are being smart about utilising the limited resources like employing the police in tracing contacts. Or shifting budgets -- with no walls to build I guess we have a lesser problem.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing but you are proposing massive systemic changes that can't be done expeditiously.

 

[zeke4ahs]

So I’m not the only one wondering why we aren’t prepared with testing kits.
Chris Hayes: I don’t want to be alarmist and I don’t want to keep yelling about this BUT THE LACK OF EFFECTIVE TESTING AT SCALE IS GOING TO GET PEOPLE KILLED. Full stop.
I’ve been saying this for a week now.

 

[sglowrider]

I'm not necessarily disagreeing but you are proposing massive systemic changes that can't be done expeditiously.

Like I said earlier, many of the implementation plans were lessons learnt from the SARs outbreak. There was a playbook already in play the moment the COVID outbreak started back in December 2019.

The longer you wait to implement, the more draconian measures will be required (like China) unless they are willing to let it spread organically and deaths to follow -- and taking the attitude that where there are problems, there are opportunities?

My view is that there should have been a game plan in play, back in December. Start it early, the fewer deaths there will be.

If you can shift $5Billion into a useless project to build some redundant wall, things can be done. Stuff worked pretty quickly after 9/11 too. Its all about good governance and political will.