Which side has more quiet or embarrassed voters this time around?

[IUNorth]

I think the most common and accepted belief is that Trump is likely going to win, with all these polling numbers showing that he's relatively even, within the margin of error. And I think a big reason for that was what happened in 2016. Where nearly all exit polling showed Clinton winning, in some cases handily, only to have Trump flip it all and win nearly everywhere it was close. Afterwards, that surprise was chalked up to significant numbers of voters not being honest, or not wanting to admit they were voting for Trump.

I wonder this time around though, if there might not be a better chance that potential Harris voters are the ones that would be more likely to not want to give that info to pollsters? Maybe its because of where I live, which is a heavy Trump supporting area, but it sure seems like the "quiet" vote this time would be a Harris vote.

There was a piece on one of the national news shows last night that made me think of this. They followed, and interviewed a couple of people in rural Georgia. One of them was a Trump supporter. One was someone that had historically been a Republican voter, but will be voting for Harris. She said there were "a lot" of people in her area that were going to vote for Harris, but that wouldn't tell pollsters, or really anyone that they were.

I guess we'll see in 6 days. One thing is virtually certain, its going to be a shit show.

 

[BradStevens]

I think the most common and accepted belief is that Trump is likely going to win, with all these polling numbers showing that he's relatively even, within the margin of error. And I think a big reason for that was what happened in 2016. Where nearly all exit polling showed Clinton winning, in some cases handily, only to have Trump flip it all and win nearly everywhere it was close. Afterwards, that surprise was chalked up to significant numbers of voters not being honest, or not wanting to admit they were voting for Trump.

I wonder this time around though, if there might not be a better chance that potential Harris voters are the ones that would be more likely to not want to give that info to pollsters? Maybe its because of where I live, which is a heavy Trump supporting area, but it sure seems like the "quiet" vote this time would be a Harris vote.

There was a piece on one of the national news shows last night that made me think of this. They followed, and interviewed a couple of people in rural Georgia. One of them was a Trump supporter. One was someone that had historically been a Republican voter, but will be voting for Harris. She said there were "a lot" of people in her area that were going to vote for Harris, but that wouldn't tell pollsters, or really anyone that they were.

I guess we'll see in 6 days. One thing is virtually certain, it’s going to be a shit show.

Probably depends on your area. In mine, no one will put up a Trump sign. Would lead to the liberal Mommy Mafia coming after you.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I think the most common and accepted belief is that Trump is likely going to win, with all these polling numbers showing that he's relatively even, within the margin of error. And I think a big reason for that was what happened in 2016. Where nearly all exit polling showed Clinton winning, in some cases handily, only to have Trump flip it all and win nearly everywhere it was close. Afterwards, that surprise was chalked up to significant numbers of voters not being honest, or not wanting to admit they were voting for Trump.

I wonder this time around though, if there might not be a better chance that potential Harris voters are the ones that would be more likely to not want to give that info to pollsters? Maybe its because of where I live, which is a heavy Trump supporting area, but it sure seems like the "quiet" vote this time would be a Harris vote.

There was a piece on one of the national news shows last night that made me think of this. They followed, and interviewed a couple of people in rural Georgia. One of them was a Trump supporter. One was someone that had historically been a Republican voter, but will be voting for Harris. She said there were "a lot" of people in her area that were going to vote for Harris, but that wouldn't tell pollsters, or really anyone that they were.

I guess we'll see in 6 days. One thing is virtually certain, its going to be a shit show.

I still think Harris will win

 

[dbmhoosier]

I still think Harris will win

 

[IUNorth]

I still think Harris will win

I can honestly say I don't care. I just hope the responses afterward are healthy.

The immediate response...now through innaguration, especially if Trump loses. There are dipshits on both sides trying to cheat, right now. But there isn't any sort of conspiracty to "steal" anything, on a large scale. Whoever wins, will have won. Deal with it like damn adults.

Then...the response from whoever wins, and how they choose to govern. Both have some choices to make on how they'll lead the next 4 years. We'll all "be fine" if they choose to genuinely do what they think is best for America, and not allow the worst extremes drive them. If Trump's worst impulses are what solely drive him, we really could be phucked in some pretty impactful ways. And then obviously, if Harris continues to allow the most extreme and progressive ideals to guide here, rather than a more centrist approach...we'll be similarly phucked, but in different areas. Basically, don't be a dumb dick and discount half the country's very real beliefs.

And then equally important...what is the response of the leaders in the losing party? I hope to God, whoever loses, gets hit with the smelling salts and realizes these extreme personalities, and/or leading from extremely partisan positions, are awful for the health of our country. And they choose to "prop up" leaders that are actually competent, and that are able to both fight for what they believe in, while acknowledging and considering positions and ideals they don't believe in.

If the Dems lose to Trump...again...that should be seen as an epic failure, and should drive fundamental changes in how they view the POTUS process, AND what beliefs and ideals driver their party.

If Trump lose to Biden, and then Harris... that HAS to start to open some eyes that he shouldn't be the face of the party. Find a normal human being.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I can honestly say I don't care. I just hope the responses afterward are healthy.

The immediate response...now through innaguration, especially if Trump loses. There are dipshits on both sides trying to cheat, right now. But there isn't any sort of conspiracty to "steal" anything, on a large scale. Whoever wins, will have won. Deal with it like damn adults.

Then...the response from whoever wins, and how they choose to govern. Both have some choices to make on how they'll lead the next 4 years. We'll all "be fine" if they choose to genuinely do what they think is best for America, and not allow the worst extremes drive them. If Trump's worst impulses are what solely drive him, we really could be phucked in some pretty impactful ways. And then obviously, if Harris continues to allow the most extreme and progressive ideals to guide here, rather than a more centrist approach...we'll be similarly phucked, but in different areas. Basically, don't be a dumb dick and discount half the country's very real beliefs.

And then equally important...what is the response of the leaders in the losing party? I hope to God, whoever loses, gets hit with the smelling salts and realizes these extreme personalities, and/or leading from extremely partisan positions, are awful for the health of our country. And they choose to "prop up" leaders that are actually competent, and that are able to both fight for what they believe in, while acknowledging and considering positions and ideals they don't believe in.

If the Dems lose to Trump...again...that should be seen as an epic failure, and should drive fundamental changes in how they view the POTUS process, AND what beliefs and ideals driver their party.

If Trump lose to Biden, and then Harris... that HAS to start to open some eyes that he shouldn't be the face of the party. Find a normal human being.

It’ll end progressive bullshit or trump. Glass half full

 

[dbmhoosier]

I can honestly say I don't care. I just hope the responses afterward are healthy.

The immediate response...now through innaguration, especially if Trump loses. There are dipshits on both sides trying to cheat, right now. But there isn't any sort of conspiracty to "steal" anything, on a large scale. Whoever wins, will have won. Deal with it like damn adults.

Then...the response from whoever wins, and how they choose to govern. Both have some choices to make on how they'll lead the next 4 years. We'll all "be fine" if they choose to genuinely do what they think is best for America, and not allow the worst extremes drive them. If Trump's worst impulses are what solely drive him, we really could be phucked in some pretty impactful ways. And then obviously, if Harris continues to allow the most extreme and progressive ideals to guide here, rather than a more centrist approach...we'll be similarly phucked, but in different areas. Basically, don't be a dumb dick and discount half the country's very real beliefs.

And then equally important...what is the response of the leaders in the losing party? I hope to God, whoever loses, gets hit with the smelling salts and realizes these extreme personalities, and/or leading from extremely partisan positions, are awful for the health of our country. And they choose to "prop up" leaders that are actually competent, and that are able to both fight for what they believe in, while acknowledging and considering positions and ideals they don't believe in.

If the Dems lose to Trump...again...that should be seen as an epic failure, and should drive fundamental changes in how they view the POTUS process, AND what beliefs and ideals driver their party.

If Trump lose to Biden, and then Harris... that HAS to start to open some eyes that he shouldn't be the face of the party. Find a normal human being.

Tucker says no.

 

[BradStevens]

It’ll end progressive bullshit or trump. Glass half full

I think you're being too optimistic. Woke is here to stay--you see it on this board where people won't even admit it exists, to this day. Ditto Trumpism/MAGA, even if Trump leaves. The GOP will never look like Aloha wants it to again.

 

[BradStevens]

Tucker says no.

View embedded media

So, so stupid.

 

[BCCHoosier]

I think the most common and accepted belief is that Trump is likely going to win, with all these polling numbers showing that he's relatively even, within the margin of error. And I think a big reason for that was what happened in 2016. Where nearly all exit polling showed Clinton winning, in some cases handily, only to have Trump flip it all and win nearly everywhere it was close. Afterwards, that surprise was chalked up to significant numbers of voters not being honest, or not wanting to admit they were voting for Trump.

I wonder this time around though, if there might not be a better chance that potential Harris voters are the ones that would be more likely to not want to give that info to pollsters? Maybe its because of where I live, which is a heavy Trump supporting area, but it sure seems like the "quiet" vote this time would be a Harris vote.

There was a piece on one of the national news shows last night that made me think of this. They followed, and interviewed a couple of people in rural Georgia. One of them was a Trump supporter. One was someone that had historically been a Republican voter, but will be voting for Harris. She said there were "a lot" of people in her area that were going to vote for Harris, but that wouldn't tell pollsters, or really anyone that they were.

I guess we'll see in 6 days. One thing is virtually certain, its going to be a shit show.

Great post. In my area, I think there are more ashamed Harris voters. But I still think Trump wins.

 

[WhyisIUBBcursed]

I think you're being too optimistic. Woke is here to stay--you see it on this board where people won't even admit it exists, to this day. Ditto Trumpism/MAGA, even if Trump leaves. The GOP will never look like Aloha wants it to again.

I hate Trump and I hate woke. That’s why this was so hard

 

[larsIU]

So, so stupid.

It's ****ing racist and misogynistic.

I listened to Trump's MSG speech. Jesus. Really? Straight up fear mongering, talking about invoking the Insurrection Act in peace time, Biden/Harris phoning up other countries and soliciting their criminals and insane.

I don't even give a shit about Tony Hinchcliffe's poor choices. Trump alone was batshit insane


I just can't.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I think you're being too optimistic. Woke is here to stay--you see it on this board where people won't even admit it exists, to this day. Ditto Trumpism/MAGA, even if Trump leaves. The GOP will never look like Aloha wants it to again.

you're probably spot on

 

[Ohio Guy]

Tucker says no.

View embedded media

Tucker bringing up the McDonalds political move not being fake is a weird thing to say considering it really was fake.

They closed the restaurant and had screened customers/supporters go through the drive thru. Yes, he was really there and yes he really served fries, but it was 100% a political stunt.

 

[IUNorth]

Great post. In my area, I think there are more ashamed Harris voters. But I still think Trump wins.

I have a feeling, overall, pollsters are probably missing more quiet Harris voters this time around...

Could be wrong. But it seems like the choice is flipped a little bit, for a lot of voters.

In 16, Clinton was the more well known name, established at the top and forefront of politics for quite some time, and Trump was the unknown, the choice against, etc...

Now, Trump has been the most prominent and well followed political figure for almost a decade. He is who he is, there really is no unknown to Trump at this point. Harris, while she's been in politics for quite a while, still has much more elements of "unknown" to how she'll be as the President.

Obviously the campaign has also gone a long way in galvanizing people, on both sides. And for the non Harris people, that means tying her to her/their most progressive and liberal beliefs and policies.

I'm just speaking about the relatively small percentage of people that live, think, and vote in that middle 20% area, that might not feel comfortable giving pollsters accurate information. Just a gut guess, but I think there are probably more "silent" Harris voters in there this time, than there are Trump.

 

[dbmhoosier]

There are no quiet Harris voters. They can say whatever they want without fear of backlash. However, there are people who can't stand Trump but at the same time believe he was a decent President while they know Harris is straight up looney tunes. Many of these people will simply not vote.

 

[dr.jb]

There are no quiet Harris voters. They can say whatever they want without fear of backlash. However, there are people who can't stand Trump but at the same time believe he was a decent President while they know Harris is straight up looney tunes. Many of these people will simply not vote.

this guy is definitely not quiet



I'd like to know what meds he's on

 

[IUNorth]

There are no quiet Harris voters. They can say whatever they want without fear of backlash. However, there are people who can't stand Trump but at the same time believe he was a decent President while they know Harris is straight up looney tunes. Many of these people will simply not vote.

There are quiet voters on both sides...that is an unarguable fact. And there is backlash on both sides...also an unarguable fact.

This election will be decided from a bunch of different things. I think one of the main things, that contributes to the "quiet" voters will be...

How many middlish voters will vote for Harris, solely because of how awful a human being Trump is.

Versus...

How many middlish voters will vote for Trump, solely because of how progressive Harris is.

 

[mcmurtry66]

There are quiet voters on both sides...that is an unarguable fact. And there is backlash on both sides...also an unarguable fact.

This election will be decided from a bunch of different things. I think one of the main things, that contributes to the "quiet" voters will be...

How many middlish voters will vote for Harris, solely because of how awful a human being Trump is.

Versus...

How many middlish voters will vote for Trump, solely because of how progressive Harris is.

Yes

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

I think the most common and accepted belief is that Trump is likely going to win, with all these polling numbers showing that he's relatively even, within the margin of error. And I think a big reason for that was what happened in 2016. Where nearly all exit polling showed Clinton winning, in some cases handily, only to have Trump flip it all and win nearly everywhere it was close. Afterwards, that surprise was chalked up to significant numbers of voters not being honest, or not wanting to admit they were voting for Trump.

I wonder this time around though, if there might not be a better chance that potential Harris voters are the ones that would be more likely to not want to give that info to pollsters? Maybe its because of where I live, which is a heavy Trump supporting area, but it sure seems like the "quiet" vote this time would be a Harris vote.

There was a piece on one of the national news shows last night that made me think of this. They followed, and interviewed a couple of people in rural Georgia. One of them was a Trump supporter. One was someone that had historically been a Republican voter, but will be voting for Harris. She said there were "a lot" of people in her area that were going to vote for Harris, but that wouldn't tell pollsters, or really anyone that they were.

I guess we'll see in 6 days. One thing is virtually certain, its going to be a shit show.

Generally speaking, the crossover vote (at least, among those who are honest with exit pollsters about their vote and partisan affiliation) is pretty muted. Which is to say that it gets a lot more attention and discussion in the media than it actually materializes into at the ballot box.

As I've pointed out before, (according to CNN exit polls -- there are others) Biden got 6% of Republican votes in 2020. He did better than Trump -- who got 5% of Dem votes.

In 2016, both candidates got 8% of the votes from the other party. And the party ID roughly breaks down to thirds. So we're talking about 5-8% of 1/3 of the total electorate: of 1.6% to 2.6% of the total votes cast (in each case, R and D). And, of course, these get netted out. The net difference between Trump and Biden in 2020 was 1%....of ~1/3 of the voters.

Do these matter? Yes, of course. Could they tip a close state? Yep? Are they worth the ink they get? I don't think so personally. It would be different if we were talking about 10-15% crossover voting. But that hasn't been the case in quite some time.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Baris says his final national poll is Trump+1. What is interesting...

 

[cosmickid]

Tucker bringing up the McDonalds political move not being fake is a weird thing to say considering it really was fake.

They closed the restaurant and had screened customers/supporters go through the drive thru. Yes, he was really there and yes he really served fries, but it was 100% a political stunt.

To top it all off the owner of that particular McDonalds has a very anti-worker bias, and the restaurant had just been cited by the Health Dept for numerous code violations...

McDonald's Donald Trump worked at failed last health inspection

An inspection report for the McDonald's restaurant in Pennsylvania cited employees not having "hands clean and properly washed."

www.newsweek.com

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

There are quiet voters on both sides...that is an unarguable fact. And there is backlash on both sides...also an unarguable fact.

This election will be decided from a bunch of different things. I think one of the main things, that contributes to the "quiet" voters will be...

How many middlish voters will vote for Harris, solely because of how awful a human being Trump is.

Versus...

How many middlish voters will vote for Trump, solely because of how progressive Harris is.

Wouldn't you say the same contrast would've been operative in 2020 (and 2016? I mean...Trump's long been the same kind of human being he is. That seems like it's baked in the cake.

I'm not saying we couldn't see a rise in crossover voters relative to 2020. Maybe abortion gets more Republican women to vote for Harris in battleground states. Maybe January 6th. But it just seems to me these things would've availed themselves in polling -- rather than just ending up as a surprise on election day. But, then, that's your point about them being quiet.

We'll have to wait and see. My guess is that, whoever wins, the crossover vote will look pretty similar to how it looked in recent cycles.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

Baris says his final national poll is Trump+1. What is interesting...

View embedded media

What a career that guy has had. From the CIA, to the Gong Show, to widely respected pollster!

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

Tucker bringing up the McDonalds political move not being fake is a weird thing to say considering it really was fake.

They closed the restaurant and had screened customers/supporters go through the drive thru. Yes, he was really there and yes he really served fries, but it was 100% a political stunt.

Honestly, it would be hard to fathom either the USSS or campaign staffers leaving something like that to chance...whoever the candidate was.

Aside from a security incident, of course, the last thing the campaign folks are going to want is an interaction like the one that Gordon Brown got caught in back in the Brexit period...or like Joe the Plumber with Obama.

Most campaign appearances we see involving normie people are, at some level, staged.

 

[cosmickid]

There are no quiet Harris voters. They can say whatever they want without fear of backlash. However, there are people who can't stand Trump but at the same time believe he was a decent President while they know Harris is straight up looney tunes. Many of these people will simply not vote.

"There are no quiet Harris voters. They can say whatever they want without fear of backlash."
Do you live in an alternate reality?

 

[Ohio Guy]

Honestly, it would be hard to fathom either the USSS or campaign staffers leaving something like that to chance...whoever the candidate was.

Aside from a security incident, of course, the last thing the campaign folks are going to want is an interaction like the one that Gordon Brown got caught in back in the Brexit period...or like Joe the Plumber with Obama.

Most campaign appearances we see involving normie people are, at some level, staged.

Of course. I'm not blaming the Trump campaign for coordinating it; it was weird that Carlson brought it up as something 'real' about Trump.

 

[mattndallas]

this guy is definitely not quiet

View embedded media

I'd like to know what meds he's on

That's a bit. Guy's ****ing around.

That said, you could probably find a dude pretty close to that at Atlas, Bishop, or The Vid on any random Wed night.

 

[cosmickid]

What a career that guy has had. From the CIA, to the Gong Show, to widely respected pollster!

Is that really who DBM's "Baris" is? No wonder DBM posts loony polls...

 

[IUNorth]

Generally speaking, the crossover vote (at least, among those who are honest with exit pollsters about their vote and partisan affiliation) is pretty muted. Which is to say that it gets a lot more attention and discussion in the media than it actually materializes into at the ballot box.

As I've pointed out before, (according to CNN exit polls -- there are others) Biden got 6% of Republican votes in 2020. He did better than Trump -- who got 5% of Dem votes.

In 2016, both candidates got 8% of the votes from the other party. And the party ID roughly breaks down to thirds. So we're talking about 5-8% of 1/3 of the total electorate: of 1.6% to 2.6% of the total votes cast (in each case, R and D). And, of course, these get netted out. The net difference between Trump and Biden in 2020 was 1%....of ~1/3 of the voters.

Do these matter? Yes, of course. Could they tip a close state? Yep? Are they worth the ink they get? I don't think so personally. It would be different if we were talking about 10-15% crossover voting. But that hasn't been the case in quite some time.

Mainly just referring to the end results not aligning with the polls leading up to the election.

In 16, the result was an absolute shock to most, and a large part of that was basically all polls had Clinton still leading in most of the key battle ground states...she ended up losing a significant chunk of them.

Seems like the results tracked much more closely to the polls leading up to the election in 20.

Doesn't have to be a crossover vote. Just a vote that a particular voter isn't confident enough to give their actual intentions to a pollster.

This is an incredibly unique dynamic this year with Harris, who has never been President, in many ways running as an "incumbent"...but with many, many more unknowns associated with what her Presidency would look like...and then Trump, who was the President recently, now running as the challenger, but everyone basically knowing who he is, and what a Trump Presidency will likely look like.